Pakistan scores a diplomatic brownie point: Kayani gets Russia to 'ignore'

[Icarus]

The India - Russia trade is surprisingly very limited. It is only military purchases that are a bit more.

Contrarily, if Pakistan offers a trade zone and oil and gas pipe line corridor to Russians to the warm waters, India's military purchasing leverage capability would be overcome.

In any case, the current Russian economy is primarily gas/oil based, which they sell to the west. If they are able to sell additional gas and oil through Pakistani ports, it will provide them an alternative to some of what they sell to EU countries. EU countries are also trying to find an alternative to Russia's near monopoly.

We need to provide a very safe environment to encourage that sort of investment, both in terms of finances and trust. The Russians would love access to Pakistani Warm Water ports but with the prevailing situation in KPK and Balochistan, it represents a very risky investment. A risk that the Russkis are wise enough to avoid, without out rightly rejecting it.

 

[Ticker]

Wonder what the connotations of tied down are ?

Pak has lost half of itself, today for the 1st time in 60+ years has deployed its army on the west as well, has an Armed force which spend near similar resources on protecting itself as it does to protect the nation, has multiple centers of power working at cross purposes to each other, has an economy that is largely aid dependent, handed over a region to the terrorists only to be cancelled, now uses tanks against its own people, gets droned regularly, has had all its plans against India fail from achieving its objectives starting from 47 -48, Gibraltar, Khalistan, Kargil, Siachen,exposed providing shelter to the worlds most wanted man.....

Whos ' boxed in " - India or Pak ? .. and by whom ?

India is boxed in from three sides by Pakistan and China. Your only access out is through sea. And through sea, the land locked regions can not be accessed.

 

[illusion8]

Leaving aside the Middle East, where you guys are already there, Afghanistan and Central Asia is problematic for you. You do not have a direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. With 5-6 Central Asian countries, your total trade is 500-600 million dollars. And the access is through Pakistan.

Please leave Chahbahar out of it - it is in any case a shallow water port with limited capacity.

Chahbahar port is way better than any other option, though a bit costly but will work out eventually, there is talk of Oman - Iran - India gas and oil pipelines as well.

 

[SpArK]

India is boxed in from three sides by Pakistan and China. Your only access out is through sea. And through sea, the land locked regions can not be accessed.

And with all the land access, your trade volume with CAS is ?????? Any figures???

 

[Ticker]

We need to provide a very safe environment to encourage that sort of investment, both in terms of finances and trust. The Russians would love access to Pakistani Warm Water ports but with the prevailing situation in KPK and Balochistan, it represents a very risky investment. A risk that the Russkis are wise enough to avoid, without out rightly rejecting it.

Agreed sir, but the situation in KPK and Afghanistan may not matter for long.

You see, Karakoram has emerged as one of the major trade zone and corridor. It is being well improved by Pakistani and Chinese engineers. Some trade on Karakoram Highway trade zone through China to Central Asia has started happening. We have a bypass to KPK and Afghanistan. A bit lenghty but not very and a very viable alternative indeed.

 

[Ticker]

And with all the land access, your trade volume with CAS is ?????? Any figures???

We are talking more about transit trade and oil and gas pipe line transit at this stage. When we are in a position and that will happen soon, trade with Central Asia will definitely improve. Trade with Afghanistan is already happening as well as the transit trade. When peace returns to Afghanistan, it will definitely improve even further.

 

[third eye]

And with all the land access, your trade volume with CAS is ?????? Any figures???

Peanuts..

A ' boxed in " India does more

 

[gubbi]

Indians with all their money and defence deal cant offer russia the space in great game that Pakistan can by allowing it to partner it in Afghanistan.This indians in other russia threads will come to realise how fast sand has slipped out of their hands.

I think you are confusing interests of erstwhile Soviet Union with that of the modern Russian state. Apples and Oranges, my friend. A quick look at a map would show that Russia has no common borders with Afghanistan.

 

[bandit]

We need to provide a very safe environment to encourage that sort of investment, both in terms of finances and trust. The Russians would love access to Pakistani Warm Water ports but with the prevailing situation in KPK and Balochistan, it represents a very risky investment. A risk that the Russkis are wise enough to avoid, without out rightly rejecting it.

I could never understand, why would Russia need a warm-water port?

Doesn't make any sense. Is this cold-war era hangover still floating around?

 

[ajtr]

Wonder what the connotations of tied down are ?

Pak has lost half of itself, today for the 1st time in 60+ years has deployed its army on the west as well, has an Armed force which spend near similar resources on protecting itself as it does to protect the nation, has multiple centers of power working at cross purposes to each other, has an economy that is largely aid dependent, handed over a region to the terrorists only to be cancelled, now uses tanks against its own people, gets droned regularly, has had all its plans against India fail from achieving its objectives starting from 47 -48, Gibraltar, Khalistan, Kargil, Siachen,exposed providing shelter to the worlds most wanted man.....

Whos ' boxed in " - India or Pak ? .. and by whom ?

Pakistan has boxed in india into SA and india's only option to live peacefully in the region is to act as 2nd fiddle to pakistan.

 

[SpArK]

Pakistan is not much of value and in the future if it fructifies will only be a transit route - hence only serves as an irritant to India. Pakistan keeps blocking our routes - what happens if we reciprocate and block the water?

Lets compare how a country with no land access fares with a country with full access.

In 2010, Kazakhstan was India’s largest bilateral trading partner ($210 million) in Central Asia, followed by Uzbekistan ($73.43 million), Turkmenistan ($37.91 million), Tajikistan ($34.06 million), and Kyrgyzstan ($25.21 million).

India’s ONGC Videsh has acquired stakes in Kazakh oil fields and the long stalled Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline is gaining traction despite the looming security concerns.

Other milestones include the Kazakh-Indian civil nuclear cooperation , and partnership with Uzbekistan in its domestic LNG market.

Ok Ticker... Your turn.

 

[illusion8]

We are talking more about transit trade and oil and gas pipe line transit at this stage. When we are in a position and that will happen soon, trade with Central Asia will definitely improve. Trade with Afghanistan is already happening as well as the transit trade. When peace returns to Afghanistan, it will definitely improve even further.

Your central asia transit route will happen if the destination is India not otherwise, everybody else including Europe and China have their own alternate routes.

 

[third eye]

We are talking more about transit trade and oil and gas pipe line transit at this stage. When we are in a position and that will happen soon, trade with Central Asia will definitely improve. Trade with Afghanistan is already happening as well as the transit trade. When peace returns to Afghanistan, it will definitely improve even further.

A good book to read on this subject of politics on Gas pipelines in our region is called Taliban by Ahmed rashid.

I'd recommend reading it if not already read.

the first chapters cover it very well.

 

[Ticker]

Chahbahar port is way better than any other option, though a bit costly but will work out eventually, there is talk of Oman - Iran - India gas and oil pipelines as well.

Oh this was a very old project. It fizzled out for two reasons. One, Oman does not have so much oil that money spent on an under water pipeline is of any monetary value. Secondly, the under water pipe line from Oman to India is currently not within the realm of financially feasible technological realm. At such depths in the Indian Ocean, the technology currently does not support the laying of such a pipe line.

 

[SpArK]

I could never understand, why would Russia need a warm-water port?

Doesn't make any sense. Is this cold-war era hangover still floating around?

They dont need those ports.. They wont be selling any oil to middle east or buying oil from middle east.. They have direct access with south east , Europe and east Asia.

Maybe they could go to that Pakistani port and get in a boat and go to that country called India.