Good analaysis
But let me add something.......
In case of limited war, destroying vital installation will be the key to gain advantage, like ground radars (both static and mobile), airfields close to the border, AWACS etc.
IAF strategy will be to destroy these installations without using much of manned aircraft (you guess it right, drones like IAI Harpy and strategic missiles), without distroying these installations IAF will never deploy their manned aircraft for offencive role in enemy airspace.
One of the key feature of our airforce and army modernisation plan is to cover our airspace with three tier defencive wall (two tier with SAMs and last defence line will be aircrafts).
Last thing jaguars and Mig 27 during war times never fly alone, you know what I want to say, and evading those mig 29 and su 30's
will not be so easy.