Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan)

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I don't understand this Strategic Depth concept of retreating into neighbouring country on the other side to regroup and fight another day ...... whether or not what Pakistan/Indian authors/experts (mis)construe it as such or not.

For the sake of my understanding, were the PA on the run, and as S-2 put it, channelizing backward into Afghanistan, would the IA let them? Or would they keep pushing, and take up the lacunae left bt the retreating PA?

Even if you are not talking about a complete rout, and a portion of the PA still holds on to areas to fight back, what benefit would be gained if the other part was retreating to fight another day?

I mean, in that case "another day" would never come, coz the IA would find it easier to defeat a divided/thinned out force and then keep pushing, across the border, to mop up the remainder?

Yes Taimi, I am a total war novice (before you inform me of such) ..... but I would like to learn and understand.

Cheers, Doc

I believe S-2 and Taimi are saying the same thing, that Pakistan's 'strategic depth' concept did not envision military assets rumbling through the mountains into Afghanistan. You could also corroborate that with the little open source material on Pakistan's nuclear threshold - one of those 'thresholds' is the possible bifurcation of Pakistan by Indian forces.

For the Pakistani military to retreat into Afghanistan implies a large chunk of Pakistani territory would be lost - that would imply the nuclear threshold has been crossed, based on open source information at least.

I think where S-2 and TK disagree was on the hypothetical scenario of a Pakistani Army retreating through the Hindukush into Afghanistan being devastated by the IAF. I would imagine the PAF would be rendered useless by then for such a scenario to be feasible.

The SD concept makes even less sense (in the military retreat sense) when you also factor in the fact that a large chunk of Pakistan's military is set up to fight in the plains and deserts of Punjab and Sindh. I fail to see what post-retreat (to Afghanistan) military operations planners would hope to carry out successfully, through mountainous terrain, when the Army could not even hold out in the plains and deserts it was trained to fight in.

Hence the argument that SD is a concept focused on denial of space to India in Afghanistan, so that Pakistan does not have to fight a two front war, and utilizing Afghanistan for the transit of natural resources from land locked Central Asia to the rest of the world through Pakistan - the latter something that would be immensely beneficial to all countries concerned.

 

[Kasrkin]

Hence the argument that SD is a concept focused on denial of space to India in Afghanistan, so that Pakistan does not have to fight a two front war, and utilizing Afghanistan for the transit of natural resources from land locked Central Asia to the rest of the world through Pakistan - the latter something that would be immensely beneficial to all countries concerned.

You hit the nail on the head there. I believe the actual term Strategic Depth means nothing like retreating into a third country. The Pakistan Army is not built that way, simply put. By all accounts if the Lahore-Karachi highway is breached then the nuclear threshold will be achieved. Not that this is inevitable or easy. Military experts predict very even outcomes in any future Pakistan-India land war. What the term strategic depth was originally used for by Western military planners was to deny the enemy the ability to open a second front that would leave our forces trapped, outflanked or intensively engaged on opposite battlefronts. That is the actual definition. Therefore, Pakistan doesn't need Afghanistan to be friendly. Just neutral and unwilling to take advantage of a Pakistani war with India.

 

[vsdoc]

@AM / Kasrkin - I agree to what you are saying.

And it is also what I implied in my reply to Taimi. But my question to him still stands ..... how does Pakistan prevent this "flanking" maneuver from taking place?

We have a lot that Afghanistan needs ..... why would they refuse aid from any quarter?

This also why I believe India has still not given up on reclaiming Pakistan Occupied Kashmir somewhere down the line ...... for a land bridge with Afghanistan.

Coz the reasons you mentioned for Pakistan hold equally good for India ..... and India would be an economically stronger and politically more stable trade conduit between Eurasia and the rest of Asia than Pakistan ..... for all potential trade partners involved.

Cheers, Doc

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

@AM - I agree to what you are saying.

And it is also what I implied in my reply to Taimi. But my question to him still stands ..... how does Pakistan prevent this "flanking" maneuver from taking place?

We have a lot that Afghanistan needs ..... why would they refuse aid from any quarter?

This also why I believe India has still not given up on reclaiming Pakistan Occupied Kashmir somewhere down the line ...... for a land bridge with Afghanistan.

Coz the reasons you mentioned for Pakistan hold equally good for India ..... and India would be an economically stronger and politically more stable trade conduit between Eurasia and the rest of Asia than Pakistan ..... for all potential trade partners involved.

Cheers, Doc

The terrain on the Afghan Pakistan border makes it extremely hard, IMO, for an Afghan Army to march through and occupy and significant amount of Pakistani territory - we see that in Kashmir as well, where the terrain makes it extremely hard for either side to manage any significant territorial gains.

Add in a little bit of air support on the Pakistani side, and the scenario S-2 described for a Pakistani Army being devastated trying to go West through the Hindukush applies just as well to an Afghan Army trying to go East - and the Afghans will not have a military capable of offensive action for a very long time, if ever. But nonetheless, it is a potential threat to cater for, especially the possible 'covert threat', which is Pakistan's accusation at the moment.

The idea of an Indian land bridge to Afghanistan through Kashmir, for tapping into natural resources for transit to the rest of the world seems unfeasbile, though it would be feasible for Indian use. The terrain is mountainous, high altitude (bad weather and what not) and so it would cost a lot more and take a lot more time to set up the infrastructure for pipelines etc.

Chabahar and Gwadar would continue to offer the easiest and shortest routes for that.

 

[air marshal]

450 militants killed in Rah-e-Nijat: DG ISPR

ISLAMABAD, Nov 6 (APP): Director General ISPR Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas on Friday said that operation Rah-e-Nijat is going well ahead of time and terrorists are on the run. Sararogha has been cleared of the terrorists, which was once deemed their operation base and the troops are entering Makeen which is the base headquarters of terrorists, DG ISPR said in an interview with Radio Pakistan.

He said the terrorists are fleeing in small groups. “We have also informed the administration and tribal elders not to allow entry of these terrorists in their area, as they will undermine the peace of these areas. They should not be allowed to stay in their area.”

He said so far around 450 militants have been killed and many others arrested. In the operation, 42 officers and jawans have been martyred and around 142 were injured.

“Most importantly, we are enjoying not only the support of the masses, but that of tribes as well. Our real target is to free Mehsud tribe from the claws of the terrorist organization so that they can lead their life according to their customs.”

Answering a question, DG ISPR said the terrorist organization has no potential to fight the army and inflict heavy damage on it in areas where the operation is going on.

Therefore, they are hitting soft targets in civilian areas. Through acts of terrorism, they want to storm the minds of the people. They want to put pressure on the masses to prevail upon the government to stop the operation. But, these terrorists cannot demoralize the people. The people want the army to exterminate this outfit.

When asked as to no organization has claimed responsibility of terror attacks in major cities, DG ISPR said that if the operation is stopped, it will benefit no other than this terrorist organization, so this indicates that this terrorist organization is behind these attacks.

In reply to a question, the DG ISPR said a top-level meeting was called few days back, which was presided over by the Prime Minister. The purpose of the meeting was to enhance coordination and to work out a plan for better security of civil areas.
He said once we dismantle the base of these terrorists, it will be easy to capture the fleeing small groups. These groups are present in our populated areas and may carry out terror acts.

 

[Kasrkin]

And it is also what I implied in my reply to Taimi. But my question to him still stands ..... how does Pakistan prevent this "flanking" maneuver from taking place?

By making sure, one way or another, that the Afghan government is, if not friendly, un-antagonistic and respectful of Pakistan's territorial sovereignty. There is not much of an Afghan government in place right now, so obviously things are complicated.

We have a lot that Afghanistan needs ..... why would they refuse aid from any quarter?

Aid is not a threat to us per se. You remember how the Indian foreign minister was publicly decrying Pakistani military assistance to Sri Lanka saying something along the lines of 'only we have the right to supply them'? Well, we're not like that. They can take the aid, but UNSHOCKINGLY we will be keeping an eye, the last thing Pakistan would appreciate is a Egypt-Syrian type military alliance in 1973 against Pakistan.

This also why I believe India has still not given up on reclaiming Pakistan Occupied Kashmir somewhere down the line ...... for a land bridge with Afghanistan.

Unfeasible, like AM pointed out. You think that area is unsecured now, wait till its the Pakistanis and the Pakistani army who're trying to stop you. We must be grounded, everything else is dangerous and pointless military adventurism.

Coz the reasons you mentioned for Pakistan hold equally good for India ..... and India would be an economically stronger and politically more stable trade conduit between Eurasia and the rest of Asia than Pakistan ..... for all potential trade partners involved.

Not really, the 'reasons' don't even come close for India like they do Pakistan in relation to Afghanistan. India has no border with Afghanistan, if you think India would try to militarily burst through a 'link' in a nation of 170 million then it just goes to show the extent of our concern. Also, the Disputed Territory does NOT touch the Durrand, not even close. You'll have to fight through Punjab or NWFP or both to reach Afghanistan, which is all sovereign Pakistani territory. The Pakistani military has categorically stated that the country will not be allowed to get bisected. Looks like India's idea to induce nuclear weapons in the region by conducting a test in 1972 wasn't such a good idea after all.

 

[Rank]

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Defence.pk Banner (By Me once again) Dedicated to "Operation Rah-e-Nijat"

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[S-2]

Yeah, my thoughts were notional but, unfortunately, I mentioned IAF and slaughter with your forces in the same sentence and Taimikhan sorta took...

...offense?

Of course were you at war with Martians the principle of channelization would remain.

I also disagreed with his assertion of a complete absence of afghan infrastructure such that they'd not be able to accomodate your aircraft. In fact, I think they've a number of fields with tarmacs, runways, and the capacity to handle fast-movers. They do at least for us.

It's moot in anycase though. That's not the story and neutralization, minimally, is.

vsDoc, though, raises an important point which I have to in the past-

"We have a lot that Afghanistan needs ..... why would they refuse aid from any quarter?"

Where Pakistan is being outflanked is in the diplomatic and economic aid arenas. India has no more consulates/embassies than Pakistan...and in the exact same cities. No more nor less.

Pakistan's unwillingness or inability to engage all elements of Afghan society to the same degree as they likely do pashtu communities probably doesn't help perceptions. I'm not even certain that pashtu communities in Afghanistan are fully on board with Pakistani aspirations.

Maybe xyz_2 can shed some light there.

Further, while Pakistani aid has increased from a rather modest range of about $150m or so over a multi-year period to...more (dunno but I'm thinking about $300m or so), the GoP is still at a severe disadvantage relative to the GoI.

Finally, until Pakistan can make the case that India is, indeed, engaged in facilitating a cross-border insurgency into FATAville or Baluchistan FROM Afghanistan, it will lack significant traction. I don't believe there's a case.

Worse, I think that there IS a POSSIBILITY of a case WRT to the GoA. Amrullah Saleh seems just the guy with the inclination to do so. He clearly has ill will to Pakistan and, perhaps, with some justification. I don't think it helps matters if so. I don't think the GoA would be prepared to admit such, if so. I don't think the GoA will fight accusations against India either. They won't actively throw India under a bus but they're probably content to have Pakistan's primary focus upon India and not them.

I'm convinced that ISAF would be livid were India found complicit in such. I'm convinced that India understands this and isn't prepared to endanger ISAF/U.N. wrath for such. I'm convinced that India sees that they can add very little fuel to an already blazing fire and would be doing so at great potential risk.

Afghanistan? As indicated, a different story. Further, Afghanistan has far greater means to HIDE such from ISAF/U.N. and probably cares far less if caught.

Anyway, some thoughts.

 

[air marshal]

Troops enter Makeen amid little resistance
November 07, 2009

By Irfan Burki & Daud Khattak

PESHAWAR: Security forces entered the Taliban stronghold of Makeen where clashes and search operation resulted in the killing of 13 militants on Friday, the 21st day of the operation Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan Agency.

Three more militants were killed in a separate clash in Srarogha, another key bastion of the Taliban where security forces are busy consolidating their positions and conducting search operations.

Security officials said the troops did not face resistance as expected while entering Makeen. Sources said the troops had now secured almost all the key locations in their three-pronged advance on the Taliban positions from Razmak, Wana and Jandola. Only eight-kilometre area was not in the control of security forces while all other important roads from Srarogha and Wana to Makeen were now held by the military.

The political administration officials said security forces had reached Ladha from Wana and the road links on that direction had been blocked to stop the supplies and plug escape routes of the Taliban.

Security forces were conducting search operations in the villages of Gadwai, Shamerai, Maidan, Siga, Kot Langarkhel and Patwelai. From the Razmak side, the troops successfully entered Makeen besides blocking the junction of roads coming from Ladha and Srarogha. The step had been taken to get complete control over the movement of vehicles in the area, the sources added.

“This will jam the traffic system of the militants and they can only use mountainous and uninhabited routes to escape the area or get fresh supplies,” said a security official, who did not want to be named.

Officials said the troops would move towards Makeen after completing search operations in Ladha, while those already in Makeen after advancing from the Razmak side would move forward towards Ladha to ensure their presence in the area.

In Srarogha area, the troops would advance to Janta and Piazha after clearing Srarogha, which is located around 30 kilometres from Makeen. The troops will be in control of 80 per cent area of South Waziristan once they spread into all the areas between Makeen and Srarogha.

A statement from the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said the troops had cleared a large part of the town of Makeen where the house of slain Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud was also destroyed. Mehsud died in a drone attack along with some of his family members on August 5 this year.

The military statement said the key junctions of roads had been blocked. It said fighting was also taking place but militants were fleeing the area, leaving behind arms and ammunition. A search and clearance operation was under way in Srarogha, where three militants were killed during a clash, said the statement. The fighting erupted after the militants fired four rockets on security forces in Srarogha.

From the Shakai side, security forces continued consolidating their positions in and around Ladha. Search operation was also under way in the area, said the official statement. According to the Army claims, around 450 militants had been killed so far. However, the Taliban dispute the claim, admitting the death of only 11 of their men.

- The News

 

[SMC]

So the thugs have ran away. This cannot be good.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Further, while Pakistani aid has increased from a rather modest range of about $150m or so over a multi-year period to...more (dunno but I'm thinking about $300m or so), the GoP is still at a severe disadvantage relative to the GoI.

A correction on that, Pakistan's investments (not just pledged aid) are around $500 million now: http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...n-hits-500-million.html?highlight=500+million

Which compares to about $1.2 billion in Indian aid pledged to Afghanistan: India's Afghan Aid Irks Pakistan - WSJ.com I am uncertain as to how much of the pledged aid has actually been delivered or invested.

Pakistan compares quite favorably with India in terms of aid provided/invested as a percentage of GDP. Additionally, the CIA world factbook places Pakistan as the major trading partner of Afghanistan:

Afghanistan Imports Partners:

Pakistan 35.8%, US 9.2%, Germany 7.5%, India 4.8% (2008)

Afghanistan Exports partners:

India 21.1%, Pakistan 20.1%, US 18.8%, Netherlands 7.9%, Tajikistan 6.7% (2008)

Given that there is a substantial amount of illegal 're-exports' from Afghanistan to Pakistan, as well as illegal imports from Pakistan (wheat and other food grains primarily) Pakistan is quite likely the largest export partner as well, and an even larger trading partner overall, if the illegal import and export figures are taken into account.

In terms of economic connectivity, India does not even come close at this point.

 

[S-2]

It appears that (CIA FACTBOOK 2007) Afghanistan imported goods costing about $4.85B total in 2007. During that year Afghanistan purchased approx. $1.8B (35.8&#37 of Pakistani goods and services.

At the same time, Afghanistan exported $327M in products overseas or to adjacent nations. Again, during the same period, Pakistan purchased approx. $65.4M (20.1%) in goods and services from Afghanistan. Quite a windfall for Pakistan and a rather large trade imbalance of $1.735B vis-a-vis Afghanistan.

India, in the same period would have sold $232.8M of goods and services to Afghanistan while buying about $69M of goods and services from Afghanistan. Afghanistan's trade imbalance would be approx. $164M vis-a-vis India.

Do you see these figures differently? If not, there is a significant imbalance in trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan that may be necessary to Afghanistan in the near term but can hardly be construed as anything but a significant benefit to PAKISTAN. Would you argue differently?

Over a six year period, India has committed $1.2B in pledged aid (Agency Coordinating Body For Afghan Relief suggests $940M between 2002-2008) to Afghanistan. I used to be of the impression that all of that aid had been delivered. It does not actually seem so-by far. Neither so for America. Apparently only Japan and Canada have made 90% of their target pledges.

I don't see good google data about Pakistan's contributions of aid to Pakistan. My research skills appear to be failing me. I'd appreciate seeing a link or two to your assertions about Pakistani aid to Afghanistan.

Thanks A.M.

 

[PAFAce]

Defence.pk Banner (By Me once again) Dedicated to "Operation Rah-e-Nijat"

One suggestion, the last "the" should be removed.

Change to:
An independent defence organization for the research and analysis of Pakistani security and strategic affairs.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

S-2:

The links are on the forum page I linked to. There is only that one reference from the Pakistani Prime Minister about the expansion in aid and investment to Afghanistan to $500 million.

The previous figure of $300 million has a few more references, including this statement related to it on the Afghan Embassy (Canada) site:

Visit of the Foreign Minister of Afghanistan to Pakistan

I have to also correct my previous post - reading the language used by the Pakistani PM a bit more carefully, the $500 million appears the total planned investment in Afghanistan as of the date of that statement, not necessarily $500 million in investment already put in, though the description of the ongoing and completed Pakistani projects does indicate significant investment has gone in already.

"The current development and assistance projects undertaken by Pakistan would cost around $500 million. "

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

One suggestion, the last "the" should be removed.

Change to:
An independent defence organization for the research and analysis of Pakistani security and strategic affairs.

We had in fact decided to change the word 'organization' as well, since we are not an organization - we are a site, or as the original banner said, a 'source'.

So can you put the original tag line in again Stealth?