While we are asking this question, equally pertinent would be the question about how long would the PA forces deployed there currently, remain there? Indefinitely? Forever? Speaking of depleting resources, PA's are stretched pretty thin as we speak, engaged as it is on multiple fronts. Its a balancing game sir, and the TTP and your other friends in the region know it ..... question is who is going to call whose bluff.
Even if they do go to Balochistan, it will be very hard for them to get settled due to some factors, Balochistan is not a very ideal place for a guerrilla war, its more barren then Waziristan, plus they can't mix with the locals due to different ethnicity and clash of objectives. As for the Pushtun on the Balochistan side, they are more inclined towards the Afghan Taliban and recent non support by them does shows that they won't be welcomed with open hands. Again, the ethnicity plays a role here too as the Pushtun in Balochistan have a totally different dialect of Pushto compared to the one spoken on the Waziristan side and even difference in traditions are there too. So for such a large number of militants to get adjusted in Balochistan is no easy task specially when they have no tribal relations nor they have lived there ever, noticing them and identifying them won't be a difficult task. As for stretching of the Army, it has already raised many new units due to this exact thing, numbers are not known but for sure they are enough to plug the gap created by the current operations as army knows its a long haul, and this has been happening for last many years. I believe up till now the bluff of militants has been called each time, they talked so much in Swat, we will do this and that, but look whats happening there, each day they are getting killed, captured, voluntarily surrendering, their many top commanders killed or captured, the dreaded spokesman Muslim Khan who used to bluff so much is in custody with all his bluffs being called. In SW, the TTP guys used to talk a lot, we will do this and that to the PA if it did come in, by the way they were fully prepared too but PA has taken then by complete surprise, they weren't expecting such kind of strategy and tactics by PA. The recent message of its leader on the run to its fighters is a very good example to show what kind of disarray they are in. In Swat as what fatman17 Sir said, once they were denied the space to do their things, their attacks have been finished too. Do we hear of any such hit & run attacks in Swat/Malakand, don't think so. Even in three weeks of SW operation, haven't heard one, doesn't that shows something. And yesterday was talking to someone involved in the SW operation, the movement of militants has been restricted at night a lot, any movement seen during the night has been hit with artillery or air strikes and they had suffered a lot of casualties too but those have not been reported in the media, the drones are playing a very important role in this fight. Even if they run to NW they won't be able to launch attacks as its Wazir tribe area and they won't allow it as they know the consequences, plus in 3 weeks we haven't seen any attack on the NW side too. Orakzai agency is the tiniest of all the tribal agencies and its also very non hospitable for guerrilla war. Kurram agency will also not be good for them as one area is with the shia tribes who are giving no space to the taliban in their area of domain, so they have again very limited space available in an area which they have not been able to live or make a safe heaven as they did in SW.
Given sir! This round belongs to the PA ..... what now (refer above)? Where all is the PA going to be concentrated?
Kashmir/Punjab/Rajasthan border?
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir?
SWAT?
NWFP?
Waziristan?
Balochistan?
How many? And for how long?
Do you have the numbers?
If not, can you raise and train the shortfall?
If so, how long will it take? Do you have the lead time available?
Do you have the money (as opposed to US funding where your goals are congruent)?
Kashmir/Punjab/Rajasthan border?
These are the permanent locations where army is available at this moment too, in the numbers sufficient to deter any Indian misadventure.
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir?
To add to your knowledge, its not like the Indian Occupied Kashmir where hundred thousands of troops are to be kept to brutalize, rape and crush the voice of freedom of the people of kasmir, the AJ&K has sufficient troops to counter the Indians, we don't have an insurgency as the one happening in IOK.
SWAT?
Many troops have already left, there was a surge before the launch of operations, once the objectives were achieved, civil administration is back on its job, army has moved out of the places were there is normalcy and few are left who are doing the clearing operations and spreading to areas not searched before. And InshAllah in a year or so major number of troops would have left, even the decision to establish an army cantonment has been put on hold for this same reason that the permanent need of troops may not be needed as the Swat TTP can and have been eliminated to a large extend.
NWFP?
Whats happening in NWFP that PA is deployed there ?? Plz enlighted to the need of more troops in NWFP ??
Waziristan?
Temporary surge, once major portion is eliminated, troops will move out, FC & civil administration will take over.
Balochistan?
Army is no more doing the operations and they are back in their peacetime locations, FC is now looking at the things as per past practice.
And all the troops have been taken out from the reserve formations, not damaging the posture at eastern borders and the troops have been taken from places where they can be redeployed in a matter of days if need arises. If needed reserve troops can also be activated, more troops can be trained too as its now that much of difficult, we are fighting this war for the last many years, by now we do know how much needed where and how to fulfill it.
As for money, if need arose we can fight this war from our own resources too, its not a full fledged war with India, but personally US should give and we should take as much money as we can as this BS has been created thanks to US and its policies. But if they do stop the money, we can fight on our own too, shown it in the past too, to have survived with sanctions and economic problems.
These are supposed to be the BEST guerilla fighters in the world .... with a track record of outlasting THREE world superpowers.
Are you somehow better?
A guerrilla forces becomes the best when they have secure safe heavens, peoples support, someone to back them up with money and weapons and the motivation. Plus past does not always mean it will remain the same. Times change, tactics change, weapons change, strategies change and the ground realities change. Before militants could roam around freely at night, now they can't, there was no precision strikes by air power, now its there, no air mobility now it is, plus the super powers came to occupy these lands and its people, whereas we don't have that objective in our mind. If they were such fearsome fighters, they should have given at least a token fight not running away leaving behind their huge cache of weapons, their commanders leaving the area and in some cases crossing the border, and their head issuing begging kind requests to his fighters to fight or they will go to hell, we should have been seeing dozens of hit and run attacks against the army by now, killing dozen of soldiers but none of that, how much they want the PA to come in more and attack them ?? When PA gets settled down & dug in well and starts moving to their new locations of hiding ??
And the recent operations and success does has shown that if we have the will we can be much better then these militants fighting caliber.
Infrastructure, weapons, hideouts ..... these are not one time activities. Yes, sure PA has dealt them a blow. But are you sure its a body blow? That they cannot recoup?
I have already told you where they can easily retreat to get refuge.
Arms can always be replaced ..... from the same sources or from different ones (depending on the complex ever-changing political dynamics of the region and who is the current bed-fellow).
If its not a body blow then what else would you call it ?? Their safe heaven for years, where it was their rule, a state within a state, where else they can enjoy such independence except for their own land. Do you suggest they will make another safe heaven in someone else backyard ?? Will the other tribe make them do such a safe heaven?? Uzbeks tried that in Wazir tribe area, what happened, uzbeks got kicked out. Will the wazir tribe let mehsud do such thing in their area having a centuries old animosity and then as usual face the wrath of the PA ?? Is it so much easy to make a safe heaven of the magnitude as we saw in SW mehsud tribe area, which had taken years to be made ?? See the number of arms recovered so far, its hundreds and thousands which they had stuffed over the years, still much to be dug out once army settles down, can it so easily be procured again??
As for hideouts, PA is in THEIR territory, and not the other way around. These fighters are known for their mastery over the layout of their land ..... and for their MOBILITY ..... at an instant's notice.
How soon does a traditional Army take to deploy sir?
Cheers, Doc
Well if its their territory how come they so easily let it go into PAs hand such a huge territory, villages and towns with years of infrastructure made to defend it with just costing about 2 and a half dozen soldiers ?? If they are so good why in three weeks of operations we haven't seen ambushes costing the PA ?? It was their tactic in past too, whenever PA used to go in, they had so many ambushes, costing PA many dead, why nothing this time with 3 weeks gone by and PA right into the middle of their heartland ??
Sometimes looking at present things by comparing it to past happenings can give us a message too and sometimes we can infer wrong conclusions too from it.
