North Korea Defence Forum

[Suika]

To sum up, you raise two point.

1.) If China really did not want to see a nuclear capable DPRK, then why hasn't China done anything about it in the past 3 decades?

2.) Would NK point the nuke on China?

For question 1.

Do bear in mind China only has been in the international political arena for the past decade, which started to make decision that impact the regional security, prior to that, it's nominally about security within Chinese own border.

The problem for China is that, North Korea is a double edged sword, on one hand, had the state of NK gone nuclear, the Chinese have to risk going to thermonuclear war on behalf of North Korea, in case they have used it on South Korea, Japan or the USA. On the other hand, they hold a trump card with North Korea, that is in the form of Kim Jong-nam, which is the key to NK political circle, because politics 101 will tell you, you cannot have a coup without a proper and groomed leadership, Jong-nam is that man. That is why he was protected by the Chinese and stayed in Macau

But now, he's dead, it basically forced Chinese hand to have another approach, up to that point, China can easily (well, not exactly easy, but doable) to have force a regime change and alter the course of North Korea, but now this is not going to be the case, if Kim's gone, there will be an "Iraq" for China to deal with, only this time, they are armed with nuclear weapon.

Kim Jong-UN knows that, that is why he ordered the purge and the assassination of his brother. And that is the ultimatum Kim Jong have with China, this is something You won't be able to imagine the North would do in the past 3 decades, and certainly will not happen had Kim Il-sung is in charge, that tell us something.

A.) Kim Jong does not trust the Chinese, am not going to say he hated them, but he have some sort of mistrust with the Chinese
B.) Kim Jong sees his land no longer being a vassal state to China.

Both of which is Alarming for China.

China does not want to see a nuclear capable North Korea, but one way or another, they could not do anything about it, nor would they have any card to play to begin with. China in early 2000 is still weak and needed North Korea as buffer. But now, things are different, the need for a nuclear power as a buffer does not outweigh the cost Chinese is playing, which is to support the North no matter what and losing the South to the American.

2.) Politics is a strange game, today's friends may be tomorrow enemies, and yesterday's enemies may be today's friends, especially so if you are in a dictator regime. If you want me to name example how easy relationship can change and do a 180, I can name a lot. From Egypt switching side from Soviet after Yom Kippur War, to Iran switching to Russia after Islamic revolution, Vietnam from China to Russia after WW2, Uganda from Israel to Libya and Soviet Union and so on.

Will we see Kim pointing nuke at China? Maybe, or maybe not, but is it possible? Yes, couple with the fact that Kim is not rational or at least does not appear rational. We cannot say for sure, but I will know just this, it would be naïve to think North Korea will still be under Chinese leash if and when they have a full Nuclear Weapon arsenal. Once they have achieve that, North Korea will be more assertive, and China will be more submissive. Unless you honestly think Chinese leadership will still put 100% faith on North Korean leader, because if the Chinese do, there are no way they would provide safe haven to Kim's Brother.

To your first rebuttal, I would have to disagree. China has demonstrated its will to use force against Vietnam, both in a land war in the late 1970s, and another fight at sea for the Paracel islands in the late 1980s. China and India had a border war as well. Diplomatically speaking, China did become a big enough of a force in which the US switched official international recognition from ROC to PRC in the 1970s with Nixon's visit to China, thus earning the PRC a permanent seat on the UNSC. Additionally, to a DPRK in the 1990s, and first decade of the 2000s, DPRK was fully dependent on Chinese imports. It wouldn't have been so difficult for them to apply incremental sanctions on the DPRK. But no, there was nothing from China.

To the second point, yes the dynamic of changing off friendships is true, but what is the evidence of that in the past 3 decades between PRC and DPRK? None, until finally this year, of a few bits of friction. But friction can certainly exist between aligned nations still. Maybe it will happen, and DPRK miraculously becomes dis-aligned with China, and thus would not be in China's interest, but if it does happen, it would be despite apparent Chinese approval of the DPRK in the last 3 decades. But it is probably too early say that this has become the case because all comments by Xi and other PRC representatives like foreign minister Wang regarding DPRK and the US threat to use military force has been a demand for deescalation of tensions and an urging of the US to not do anything rashful, in other words, China was calling on the US to not use force. So now we see China dragging their feet in cooperating in applying real pressure on DPRK. So of course DPRK does not like that and squeals at China for the first time.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

True to some extent. However, I will say that's a long way off, since Fat Kim is still very young (funny enough he was and still is one of the youngest president in the world, he was actually the youngest president on earth when he took power a few years ago. Lol). So I don't think he will be dying anytime soon, he still has a long life ahead of him and he's definitely not hungry or unhealthy contrary to his people . If anything he might outlast every single one of us on this forum.
Well, I'm considering the average lifespan of brutal dictators throughout history who died in power (or who would have died in power if not for Western powers) the from Stalin, Saddam, to Gaddafi, to Omar Bongo(Gabon), castro (Cuba), to Assad father, Paul Biya (Cameroon), suharto (Indonesia) and many other past and present dictator ship in Africa, middle east, South America. All these dictators were/have been in power for 20-40years on average.
We all know it's very unlikely Kim dynasty will be toppled. So expect Kim to remain in power until he dies. So looking at an average life of dictators (they tend to live far longer than the average nice man. Lol) Kim should be in power no less than 40 years at least baring a miracle /unforseen contingencies.

Additionally, we all forgot to mention the impact of this news on south Korea's new president in all this. This Kim provocation couldn't come at a worse time for him. I'm afraid his sunshine policy of engagement with Kim will soon turn to sunset policy. He will soon change his delusional policy once Kim is done with him. Reality will soon set in for him, which is unfortunate since if he was dealing with a normal leader instead of a paranoid crazy one like Kim things would have turn out differently.

Maybe Fat Kim will eat one too many dumplings and just pop on his own. Think positive.

It's too bad that Fat Kim already killed all the Chinese assets in his family like his Uncle and his Brother, so he may just be replaced with another hardliner.

But due to the strong personal relationship between Trump and Xi Jinping, maybe something can be worked out if such a thing happens. As long as China is guaranteed a buffer zone (just like we asked for during the Korean War) then cooperation is possible. I think China would stand to benefit from a denuclearized and pro-China regime on the border areas.

 

[jhungary]

To your first rebuttal, I would have to disagree. China has demonstrated its will to use force against Vietnam, both in a land war in the late 1970s, and another fight at sea for the Paracel islands in the late 1980s. China and India had a border war as well. Diplomatically speaking, China did become a big enough of a force in which the US switched official international recognition from ROC to PRC in the 1970s with Nixon's visit to China, thus earning the PRC a permanent seat on the UNSC. Additionally, to a DPRK in the 1990s, and first decade of the 2000s, DPRK was fully dependent on Chinese imports. It wouldn't have been so difficult for them to apply incremental sanctions on the DPRK. But no, there was nothing from China.

You cannot use Vietnam and Taiwan as an example.

China did not do anything UNTIL AFTER The United States left South Vietnam, and China til today did not do anything in Taiwan. Vietnam before 1975 is useful to China, as much as North Korea is useful to China prior to 2000s. If anything, Vietnam is the prime example on how China have to wait for the moment to intervene.

The whole point is not for China to not wanting a Nuclearized North Korea, but rather how much China GAIN AND LOST from a Nuclearized North Korea? Prior to 2000s, yes, I can see how, the military of China was not modernized, and have not have any offensive power to face an American Onslaught unless the local party on a third country is willing to support the Chinese clause, case in point, North Vietnam to China.

The problem is, China today is MORE THAN ENOUGH to defend herself and more than enough to intervene on behalf of anybody. What gain by keeping North Korea as a vassal state have diminished significantly over the years, and as to having an unstable states with Nuclear Weapon? This is actually quite unimaginable to Chinese Leadership. Who to say North Korea will NEVER, I say again, NEVER, turn their weapon against China?

Recognized in international states is one thing, but having to weight in on the an immediate neighbour is another issue. Think about it, why China now started the sanction now? But not in the early stage? Not because China cannot, but rather, why? Back in 2000s, China still need North Korea as a buffer, but now?

The aggressiveness is showing on Chinese part now, however, would you actually think North Korea will back down that easy, especially when the actually did process Nuclear Weaponry?

To the second point, yes the dynamic of changing off friendships is true, but what is the evidence of that in the past 3 decades between PRC and DPRK? None, until finally this year, of a few bits of friction. But friction can certainly exist between aligned nations still. Maybe it will happen, and DPRK miraculously becomes dis-aligned with China, and thus would not be in China's interest, but if it does happen, it would be despite apparent Chinese approval of the DPRK in the last 3 decades. But it is probably too early say that this has become the case because all comments by Xi and other PRC representatives like foreign minister Wang regarding DPRK and the US threat to use military force has been a demand for deescalation of tensions and an urging of the US to not do anything rashful, in other words, China was calling on the US to not use force. So now we see China dragging their feet in cooperating in applying real pressure on DPRK. So of course DPRK does not like that and squeals at China for the first time.

What you fail to see is, China actually have its doubt on as early as 2000s

Kim Jong assumed office in 2012, however, the "Support Network" for Pro-China general and internal politician were staged a lot earlier than that, also, Kim Jong Nam seek Chinese protection as early as 2004 (as a report in 2007 suggested that Kim Jong-nam was hiding in Macau 3 years prior) an act will not look good upon on Kim Il Song and the sign is further enforced by the early purge by Kim Jong. China has been delineate from North Korea at least at that point.

The problem is not whether or not North Korea will actually do that, I am pretty sure if North Korea were actually doing it, then everything will be already too late. Policy have to made BEFORE THAT POINT, not at that point, or after that point. China would have to choose some where before that point to further consolidate Kim's regime or pull the plug, and when that time come, then we will know. But judging from what we are seeing at this point, China is already making a detour by forcing North Korean hand. So, again, it's the same question. "Would you believe North Korea will not point the nuke on China if China goes against the North"? And at this stage, ANYTHING COULD HAPPENS.

 

[terranMarine]

It's unbelievable how some "expert" first claim Kim Jong Nam has no value when he first got assassinated and that he was no threat to Fat Kim. Now he starts giving lessons that he has value afterall because he is the key for a possible coup.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/kim-...inated-in-malaysia.477908/page-3#post-9210539

this is called acting smart.

Fact is Kim Jong Nam was constantly under China's protection in Macau. Why he traveled to Malaysia without protection remains a big mystery to this day. When he was killed we Chinese knew immediately Fat Kim was behind it because he was China's Trump card if a coup should ever take place. Thanks to a Viet and an Indon that's no longer possible. As things evolves one can tell Kim does not want to show respect to China thus he will continue with his missile and nuke testing. Even America can tell China is not controlling Fat Kim so pressuring China does not work at all. Right now DPRK's economy is around 90% dependent on China, so Fat Kim chooses to diversify this dependency by increasing trade with Russia. US understands Russia wants to hold extra leverage by supporting Fat Kim, using DPRK as extra bargaining chip with the US.

 

[Suika]

You cannot use Vietnam and Taiwan as an example.

China did not do anything UNTIL AFTER The United States left South Vietnam, and China til today did not do anything in Taiwan. Vietnam before 1975 is useful to China, as much as North Korea is useful to China prior to 2000s. If anything, Vietnam is the prime example on how China have to wait for the moment to intervene.

The whole point is not for China to not wanting a Nuclearized North Korea, but rather how much China GAIN AND LOST from a Nuclearized North Korea? Prior to 2000s, yes, I can see how, the military of China was not modernized, and have not have any offensive power to face an American Onslaught unless the local party on a third country is willing to support the Chinese clause, case in point, North Vietnam to China.

The problem is, China today is MORE THAN ENOUGH to defend herself and more than enough to intervene on behalf of anybody. What gain by keeping North Korea as a vassal state have diminished significantly over the years, and as to having an unstable states with Nuclear Weapon? This is actually quite unimaginable to Chinese Leadership. Who to say North Korea will NEVER, I say again, NEVER, turn their weapon against China?

Recognized in international states is one thing, but having to weight in on the an immediate neighbour is another issue. Think about it, why China now started the sanction now? But not in the early stage? Not because China cannot, but rather, why? Back in 2000s, China still need North Korea as a buffer, but now?

The aggressiveness is showing on Chinese part now, however, would you actually think North Korea will back down that easy, especially when the actually did process Nuclear Weaponry?



What you fail to see is, China actually have its doubt on as early as 2000s

Kim Jong assumed office in 2012, however, the "Support Network" for Pro-China general and internal politician were staged a lot earlier than that, also, Kim Jong Nam seek Chinese protection as early as 2004 (as a report in 2007 suggested that Kim Jong-nam was hiding in Macau 3 years prior) an act will not look good upon on Kim Il Song and the sign is further enforced by the early purge by Kim Jong. China has been delineate from North Korea at least at that point.

The problem is not whether or not North Korea will actually do that, I am pretty sure if North Korea were actually doing it, then everything will be already too late. Policy have to made BEFORE THAT POINT, not at that point, or after that point. China would have to choose some where before that point to further consolidate Kim's regime or pull the plug, and when that time come, then we will know. But judging from what we are seeing at this point, China is already making a detour by forcing North Korean hand. So, again, it's the same question. "Would you believe North Korea will not point the nuke on China if China goes against the North"? And at this stage, ANYTHING COULD HAPPENS.

Just going to have to agree on disagreeing.

 

[war&peace]

That's fantastic. A strong defence will keep all its enemies at a bay

As always Kim gives the Yankees the middle finger and keeps on testing. US can only stand there and repeat the same old line "more sanctions". And some members here actually believe it's boiling for China as if US is gonna launch an attack anytime soon. Nonsense, the US knows how to restrain herself from firing tomahawks at DPRK
With the new SK president at helm tension could be lowered lets wait and see how it goes.

Kim is doing a great job. Investing in a strong defence is the key to survival otherwise NATO would have over-run NK already but they know the reprecussion will be immense so they will stay away.

 

[terranMarine]

That's fantastic. A strong defence will keep all its enemies at a bay

Kim is doing a great job. Investing in a strong defence is the key to survival otherwise NATO would have over-run NK already but they know the reprecussion will be immense so they will stay away.

Well the US does not want to invade DPRK at all. As long there's a split between both sides US has an excuse to station troops in SK. In other words SK can keep on paying expensive bills for American troops and military toys from the US. Just look at THAAD, freaking $1 bln for that system and they don't own it, the South Koreans are coughing blood to satisfy US greed. If DPRK is gone a united Korea under SK's government leadership is also not want the US want. Why? Because a united Korea will focus the hatred on Japan (an ally of US) and it's gonna be a major competitor with the Japanese. Japan would love SK and DPRK to keep on divided, because that will keep Japan away from SK's target vision. You do know the Koreans have a very strong hatred towards the Japs lol.

China has always urged DPRK to open up, don't be so stubborn. Fat Kim's grandfather and father always showed China respect and maintained good relations. This boy obviously is rebellious to the point of murdering his uncle, perhaps even his aunt as well and now his half brother. All friendly connections to China cut off by this fat kid. The main point is US f*cked up when his father was still alive both countries had an agreement. DPRK destroy the nuclear reactor and US would lift off some sanctions and providing financial aid. DPRK did her part but US didn't follow up, yup breaking the promise. So DPRK immediately restarted their nuclear program and voila they succeeded their first explosion. Recently US starts to cry about China not crippling DPRK, the yankees are so funny.

Why did US strike Iraq and Libya? Saddam and Gadaffi made a huge mistake angering US and paid the price. No big power is right next to them for protection so US fOOk them up. But DPRK has nothing to make US that angry to go to war with them (not even nukes). Had the US not broken her promise today's situation might not occur.

 

[Suika]

Well the US does not want to invade DPRK at all. As long there's a split between both sides US has an excuse to station troops in SK. In other words SK can keep on paying expensive bills for American troops and military toys from the US. Just look at THAAD, freaking $1 bln for that system and they don't own it, the South Koreans are coughing blood to satisfy US greed. If DPRK is gone a united Korea under SK's government leadership is also not want the US want. Why? Because a united Korea will focus the hatred on Japan (an ally of US) and it's gonna be a major competitor with the Japanese. Japan would love SK and DPRK to keep on divided, because that will keep Japan away from SK's target vision. You do know the Koreans have a very strong hatred towards the Japs lol.

China has always urged DPRK to open up, don't be so stubborn. Fat Kim's grandfather and father always showed China respect and maintained good relations. This boy obviously is rebellious to the point of murdering his uncle, perhaps even his aunt as well and now his half brother. All friendly connections to China cut off by this fat kid. The main point is US f*cked up when his father was still alive both countries had an agreement. DPRK destroy the nuclear reactor and US would lift off some sanctions and providing financial aid. DPRK did her part but US didn't follow up, yup breaking the promise. So DPRK immediately restarted their nuclear program and voila they succeeded their first explosion. Recently US starts to cry about China not crippling DPRK, the yankees are so funny.

Why did US strike Iraq and Libya? Saddam and Gadaffi made a huge mistake angering US and paid the price. No big power is right next to them for protection so US fOOk them up. But DPRK has nothing to make US that angry to go to war with them (not even nukes). Had the US not broken her promise today's situation might not occur.

Regarding the first paragraph, just want to add that I think just about everyone could agree that, on a basic level and humanistic level (if that could be permitted in this world), it would be good for the Koreans to finally be able to unify just as the Germans were able to. I think Japan would find little opposition to a unified Korea if they would just cool down the anti-Japan rhetoric. Not only is it hate, but the spreading of incorrect and exaggerated information about the comfort women and making unrealistic conditions for never ending apologies. So with an ROK that does this, combined with the very nature of the DPRK regime, of course Japan would not want to see a unified Korea. Japan's support for the ROK could be earned if they get off the hate train. More so, I would argue that both Japan and Korea really ought to work more closely together. The two of them together would be quite capable of backing off influence from both the US on one end and China or Russia from the other end.

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but in the years from around 2009 going up to 2012, there was a massive South Korean wave of culture (music, fashion, drama, food) that was sweeping through Japan. Japanese opinion of South Korea was improving. But then at the end of 2012, the demons of history beckoned again, as Prime Minister Lee Myung-bak landing on the disputed island of Takeshima (Dokdo) and from there he said that the Japanese emperor should apologize about the colonial era.

---start---
SEOUL – South Korean President Lee Myung Bak said Tuesday that Emperor Akihito must apologize for Japan’s colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula if he wants to visit South Korea.

“I have said (the Emperor) may come here if he is willing to apologize from his heart to those who died fighting for independence,” Lee said in a meeting with teachers in North Chungcheong Province, according to the presidential office.

He made the remarks the day before South Korea’s Liberation Day, which marks independence from Japan’s 1910-1945 colonial rule.

Lee invited the Emperor to visit South Korea in April 2008 while he was on an official visit to Japan and met with the Emperor and his wife, Empress Michiko, at the Imperial Palace.

The Emperor “doesn’t need to come if he is coming just to offer his ‘deepest regret,’ ” Lee said, in apparent reference to the address the Emperor gave at a palace banquet he hosted for then- President Roh Tae Woo during a visit to Japan in May 1990.

“The victimizers have forgotten; but the victimized have not forgotten,” Lee said of the colonial era, which has left deep wounds in the Korean psyche.

In the 1990 banquet, the Emperor said, “I think of the sufferings your people underwent during this unfortunate period, which was brought about by my country, and cannot but feel the deepest regret.”

Lee, whose single five-year term ends early next year, triggered a diplomatic storm with Japan last week by making an unprecedented visit to the group of South Korean-controlled islets in the Sea of Japan long been claimed by Japan.

On Monday, Lee accused the Japanese government of ignoring South Korean grievances over the colonial period, telling South Korean legislative leaders that his visit Friday to the disputed isles, known as Dokdo in Korea and Takeshima in Japan, was intended to pressure Tokyo into action.

During his meeting with teachers Tuesday, Lee reiterated that he first thought about going to the isles “two, three years ago” and that the visit was not made “at the spur of the moment.”

Lee also suggested that Japan must allow him to address the Diet as a condition for him to make a visit to Japan as a “state guest.”

“I will go if they allow me to speak my mind” in the Diet, Lee said.

In a related development, South Korea demanded Tuesday that two Cabinet ministers drop plans to visit Yasukuni Shrine on Wednesday, the anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II.

Transport minister Yuichiro Hata and Jin Matsubara, chairman of the National Public Safety Commission, have said they plan to visit the Tokyo shrine to pay homage to the war dead.

“Our government has kept a strong position that Japanese leaders in responsible positions, including Cabinet ministers, should not visit Yasukuni Shrine,” South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Tai Young said.

Yasukuni Shrine, dedicated to Japan’s war dead, has enshrined several war criminals. As a result, visits by government leaders trigger sharp protests in Asian countries.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, in keeping a policy since the Democratic Party of Japan came to power, has said he will not visit the shrine and has asked members of his Cabinet to stay away.
---end---
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...olonial-rule-s-korean-president/#.WRn4J9wlHcu

That has completely shot the growing positive sentiment in Japan towards ROK. And then when Park Guen-hye became president, she made the comfort women issue a top priority towards Japan. Relations were destroyed by this double whammy.

http://survey.gov-online.go.jp/h28/h28-gaiko/summary.pdf

Although some Japanese already seem ready to bring back Korean wave. But will take some time before more will be more willing to open up to a return of a wave of Korean stuff. We'll see. The territorial dispute about Takeshima (Dokdo) doesn't seem so important to most Japanese. But Japanese are sick and tired of the combo of exaggerated and false accusations coupled with demands for apologies. It might even be possible for Japan to bend on the territorial dispute if relations between the two reach a sustained good level.

 

[terranMarine]

Regarding the first paragraph, just want to add that I think just about everyone could agree that, on a basic level and humanistic level (if that could be permitted in this world), it would be good for the Koreans to finally be able to unify just as the Germans were able to. I think Japan would find little opposition to a unified Korea if they would just cool down the anti-Japan rhetoric. Not only is it hate, but the spreading of incorrect and exaggerated information about the comfort women and making unrealistic conditions for never ending apologies. So with an ROK that does this, combined with the very nature of the DPRK regime, of course Japan would not want to see a unified Korea. Japan's support for the ROK could be earned if they get off the hate train. More so, I would argue that both Japan and Korea really ought to work more closely together. The two of them together would be quite capable of backing off influence from both the US on one end and China or Russia from the other end.

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but in the years from around 2009 going up to 2012, there was a massive South Korean wave of culture (music, fashion, drama, food) that was sweeping through Japan. Japanese opinion of South Korea was improving. But then at the end of 2012, the demons of history beckoned again, as Prime Minister Lee Myung-bak landing on the disputed island of Takeshima (Dokdo) and from there he said that the Japanese emperor should apologize about the colonial era.

Dream on, it's not Japan's decision whether they agree or oppose a unified Korea. Japan is only watching from the sideline and hoping they remain divided. It's not the main actor, stop talking as if Japan has an independent foreign policy. The whole affair resolves around CN-DPRK-SK-US, Japan is only the subordinate of US, totally unimportant making an impact on the whole affair. All i'm saying is Japan prefer to see a split Korea period and so does US for the financial gain and geopolitical sphere of influence. What the US "fear" is a united Korea siding with China because the hatred towards Japan that will affect US influence in NE region. Dokdo island is a major issue let alone WW2 history.

 

[gambit]

...on a basic level and humanistic level (if that could be permitted in this world), it would be good for the Koreans to finally be able to unify just as the Germans were able to.

Just as partitions for Germany, Korea, and Viet Nam were beyond their respective peoples' controls, so will unification for the Korean peninsula.

If China does nothing to rein in NKR, the collapse of the northern half is essentially as inevitable as East Germany. I played tourist in East Berlin when those halves of that city existed. Never back then did anyone thought East Germany would fall. Fast forward today, since then, SKR have made overtures towards the Germans regarding the consequences of the entire country when one political half fails.

One can argue that doing nothing still qualifies as doing something, so I guess from that perspective, unification of the Korean people depends on China.

 

[Suika]

Dream on, it's not Japan's decision whether they agree or oppose a unified Korea. Japan is only watching from the sideline and hoping they remain divided. It's not the main actor, stop talking as if Japan has an independent foreign policy. The whole affair resolves around CN-DPRK-SK-US, Japan is only the subordinate of US, totally unimportant making an impact on the whole affair. All i'm saying is Japan prefer to see a split Korea period and so does US for the financial gain and geopolitical sphere of influence. What the US "fear" is a united Korea siding with China because the hatred towards Japan that will affect US influence in NE region. Dokdo island is a major issue let alone WW2 history.

You'd be surprised. It is possible. It certainly did seem possible during the 2009-2012 years. And all I'm saying is that Japan wouldn't mind a unified Korea if DPRK wasn't a crazy Kim Dynasty and if ROK would give the apology demands a rest.

 

[terranMarine]

Just as partitions for Germany, Korea, and Viet Nam were beyond their respective peoples' controls, so will unification for the Korean peninsula.

If China does nothing to rein in NKR, the collapse of the northern half is essentially as inevitable as East Germany. I played tourist in East Berlin when those halves of that city existed. Never back then did anyone thought East Germany would fall. Fast forward today, since then, SKR have made overtures towards the Germans regarding the consequences of the entire country when one political half fails.

One can argue that doing nothing still qualifies as doing something, so I guess from that perspective, unification of the Korean people depends on China.

And how can China decide whether there's unification? Always throwing the ball at China isn't the solution

 

[Suika]

Just as partitions for Germany, Korea, and Viet Nam were beyond their respective peoples' controls, so will unification for the Korean peninsula.

If China does nothing to rein in NKR, the collapse of the northern half is essentially as inevitable as East Germany. I played tourist in East Berlin when those halves of that city existed. Never back then did anyone thought East Germany would fall. Fast forward today, since then, SKR have made overtures towards the Germans regarding the consequences of the entire country when one political half fails.

One can argue that doing nothing still qualifies as doing something, so I guess from that perspective, unification of the Korean people depends on China.

I have a suspicion that might be why ROK leaders whip up anti-Japanese rhetoric. It would make make it easier for ROK to diplomatically deal with China in regards to DPRK. The democratic country trashes another democratic country (Japan) hardcore, and then runs off to the grand 2015 military parade that was supposed to "make Japan tremble" of an undemocratic country, the same country that invaded Korea in the 1950s thus creating today's split. Park Geun-hye in the yellow. It's pretty remarkable how history triumphs over current values.

Would have expected better of the Koreans that have had a hard fight to earn their own democracy in the late 1980s. Hence why I suspect a strategic angle to ROK's hate towards Japan today. Thus if there is a strategic angle to it, then it means the hate is artificially generated, based in something legitimate of course, such a colonial era would cause it, but certainly well past its time I would think. Well just some food for thought.

 

[gambit]

I have a suspicion that might be why ROK leaders whip up anti-Japanese rhetoric. It would make make it easier for ROK to diplomatically deal with China in regards to DPRK. The democratic country trashes another democratic country (Japan) hardcore, and then runs off to the grand 2015 military parade that was supposed to "make Japan tremble" of an undemocratic country, the same country that invaded Korea in the 1950s thus creating today's split. Park Geun-hye in the yellow. It's pretty remarkable how history triumphs over current values.

Would have expected better of the Koreans that have had a hard fight to earn their own democracy in the late 1980s. Hence why I suspect a strategic angle to ROK's hate towards Japan today. Thus if there is a strategic angle to it, then it means the hate is artificially generated, based in something legitimate of course, such a colonial era would cause it, but certainly well past its time I would think. Well just some food for thought.

I would not put too much stock in these public display of affections (PDA). Many married couples hold hands in public while in private, their divorce attorneys works diligently to ensure each gets what he/she feels deserved.

Discount the Soviet Union for a moment. The Warsaw Pact was a more solid political entity than what we have seen in Asia. More solid and numerous. In Asia, it was pretty much China and NKR all these decades of the Cold War. And yet, despite all that public display of Marxist solidarity, once Gorby's reforms began in the Soviet Union, that alliance began to unravel, started with East Germany.

There is a classic sci-fi novel: " The Mote In God's Eye "...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mote_in_God's_Eye

In the novel, the symbol for Humanity is the North American bald eagle clutching the hammer and sickle. The two major starships are MacArthur and Lenin. The belief that communism is forever was so secured that in the minds of authors Niven and Pournelle, its symbols will endure into the future. I grew up in the era of that belief and caught up in it. Never did I thought that while in uniform, I would see the beginning of the collapse of the Warsaw Pact on CNN.

China's reforms were as necessary as Gorbachev's for the Soviet Union. No, am not saying China will break apart. China is not an alliance and if anything, China will become stronger with these reforms. But just like the Soviet Union, China is selfish and do not want stronger alliance members, scant as this alliance is, while the US want our Asian alliance members to prosper and grows. JPN and SKR at different times came to Asia's economic and financial aid. What have NKR done for the Asian communist alliance ? Nothing but being a millstone around China's neck.

If there is a lesson to be learned -- by China -- from the collapse of the Soviet Union that followed the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, is that in order to secure a geopolitical buffer entity, China must act. No matter how many heads of states watching whose parade, China must act and it will hers alone in preserving NKR as that buffer. No alleged machinations from JPN or SKR or even US will be necessary or even wanted. From the 'big picture' perspective, there are too many indicators today for NKR as there were for East Germany, notably, the economic disparity.

If China does nothing -- North Korea WILL collapse.

And how can China decide whether there's unification? Always throwing the ball at China isn't the solution

Buddy, you are Chinese. You are protected. It is sad that you cannot see the poverty of your arguments that you guys need protection via my responses to you deleted. So be comfortable in your naivete.

 

[Vassnti]

A few quick points, maybe just coincidence but seemed interesting that while people were madly patching the old NSA back door exploited by wanacry NK managed to get a missile to launch, did Kim update windows monday?

Sad that Kim has a success rate of about 1 in 6 missiles getting anywhere while a guy who makes car batteries in the US has a space program.
https://www.theverge.com/2017/5/15/15640268/spacex-launch-watch-live-stream-falcon-9-rocket-inmarsat

Perhaps most important, the North Korean national sport is pissing off the US, OK most people can live with that. Then they decided they could do the same to China, that is stupid. Launching missiles towards Vladivostok gives you the life expectancy of a may fly