New Threat to Pakistan with India,s New K4 SLBM test next month

[janon]

So I guess 0 is a single digit. How about -5 CEP. Its also single digit.

As is your IQ.

 

[egodoc222]

ok Tests...
the actual Nuclear exchange will be far from these tests and simulations; All the successfull missile interceptions are done under carefully controlled conditions where a lot of uncertainities which will be present in an actual war are ignored. forexample the location from where the missile is known ; its dimensions are known.
In an indo-pak nuclear exchange it wont be simple as that.
the BMD will be overwhelmed by the mere number of warheads, there will be many fake launches.
and Pakistan's strategic forces will do everything to maximise the chances of success, we won't play by your ''tests''

ok Tests...
the actual Nuclear exchange will be far from these tests and simulations; All the successfull missile interceptions are done under carefully controlled conditions where a lot of uncertainities which will be present in an actual war are ignored. forexample the location from where the missile is known ; its dimensions are known.
In an indo-pak nuclear exchange it wont be simple as that.
the BMD will be overwhelmed by the mere number of warheads, there will be many fake launches.
and Pakistan's strategic forces will do everything to maximise the chances of success, we won't play by your ''tests''

ok Tests...
the actual Nuclear exchange will be far from these tests and simulations; All the successfull missile interceptions are done under carefully controlled conditions where a lot of uncertainities which will be present in an actual war are ignored. forexample the location from where the missile is known ; its dimensions are known.
In an indo-pak nuclear exchange it wont be simple as that.
the BMD will be overwhelmed by the mere number of warheads, there will be many fake launches.
and Pakistan's strategic forces will do everything to maximise the chances of success, we won't play by your ''tests''

ok Tests...
the actual Nuclear exchange will be far from these tests and simulations; All the successfull missile interceptions are done under carefully controlled conditions where a lot of uncertainities which will be present in an actual war are ignored. forexample the location from where the missile is known ; its dimensions are known.
In an indo-pak nuclear exchange it wont be simple as that.
the BMD will be overwhelmed by the mere number of warheads, there will be many fake launches.
and Pakistan's strategic forces will do everything to maximise the chances of success, we won't play by your ''tests''

well said! but if abm shield is able to stop atleast 50% of the missile dont you think it gives enough time to india to annihilate Pakistan in such a scenario with its nuclear triad?
dont you believe that having abm 50% success rate(assumption) would btr than having none at all.

 

[Contrarian]

So I guess 0 is a single digit. How about -5 CEP. Its also single digit.

Are you generally this thick or you are making an exception.

My statement is clear enough, if you find it hard to comprehend, go and ask a senior member - either Indian or Pakistani or any damn nationality bar Chinese - to explain it to you.

 

[acid rain]

I know , but the newer missiles usually incorporate the ability to evade from such systems by different means , surely the ABM systems have to be redesigned to counter that , right ? This is no variant to variant thing , of course . Well , it isn't only my opinion , that is the prevalent opinion amongst defense analysts/strategists . Read this for a change , a bit politically motivated , but explains the history of such U.S. systems fine . The Soviets were worse though , the Chinese well do not know where they stand .

In the Nation; Why Another ABM? - New York Times

Dude a 23 year old opinion piece? the chinese, EU, Russsian, US, Indian and Israeli systems have evolved over the last 23 years since then. ABM systems nowadays are being designed (at least on the table) to intercept MIRVed and MARVed warheads. Quasi, cruise, unguided etc all are taken as threats. India doesnt need to go that far surely but over the years it will be designed to do that as well. I am not saying its a 100% sureshot thing - its like someone said - trying to hit a needle with a needle in the sky. Practise makes perfect in the end.

 

[egodoc222]

So I guess 0 is a single digit. How about -5 CEP. Its also single digit.

medicine is my thing...but with my limited knowledge of math i can say that digit represents absolute value of a number so -5 = 5
so above statement by you doesnt count as we already achieved cep less than that! )

 

[Secur]

Dude a 23 year old opinion piece? the chinese, EU, Russsian, US, Indian and Israeli systems have evolved over the last 23 years since then. ABM systems nowadays are being designed (at least on the table) to intercept MIRVed and MARVed warheads. Quasi, cruise, unguided etc all are taken as threats. India doesnt need to go that far surely but over the years it will be designed to do that as well. I am not saying its a 100% sureshot thing - its like someone said - trying to hit a needle with a needle in the sky. Practise makes perfect in the end.

Yeah I knew , so to have a general idea of the past failures , I see nothing wrong with that . Well they have and so have the missiles evolved to counter the threat , haven't they now ? Well , to be really honest and I would have posted more data , but that is something " only on the table " at the moment to counter the MARV and MIRV . Cruise missiles pose a big risk and only a handful of systems are even considered to try to bring it down , forget the rest . Long story short , the idea of a ballistic missile defense is not new , it is something which has taken even flights of fancy of plans to base interceptors in the orbit to track and neutralize to the airborne laser aboard a Boeing but I am yet to come across something that can be considered as feasible and effective . India is at a very initial stage compared to others , surely it would mature over time . So does the attack evolve faster than defense .

 

[faithfulguy]

medicine is my thing...but with my limited knowledge of math i can say that digit represents absolute value of a number so -5 = 5
so above statement by you doesnt count as we already achieved cep less than that! )

And do you guys buy into this? Even a cruise missile with GPS has CEP. And you guys actually buy into 0 CEP crap? LOL

If you guys are not Indians but Eskimos, I can sell you guys ice. And I suck at sales.

 

[illusion8]

These factors are not taken under consideration ;
by nature these factors vary substantially every time, IT is virtualy impossible

That's a faux pas, what is impossible? an interception of a hundred warheads? how did you figure that out?

The argument that you are putting forward is one of probability - something on the lines of firing a bunch of blanks in the midst of one live one - if that case scenario is probable then intercepting them is also probable. Generic statements such as "Pakistan strategic forces will try it's best to maximize it's chances of success" does not matter because the scientists designing the ABM systems are also trying their best to maximize their chances of success.

The factor that there will be numerous missiles fired at a country in war is the most basic of the factors that comes into consideration - countries who are developing BMD's are not doing it for stand alone missiles - they do it with the worst case scenario in mind.

 

[MilSpec]

I am all for nuclear triad, but I am apprehensive about the delegation of nuclear command to Naval commander, along with the this triad development, there needs to be also multiple failsafes, mid air self destruct and Multiple authorization for launch codes....

 

[Alpha1]

well said! but if abm shield is able to stop atleast 50% of the missile dont you think it gives enough time to india to annihilate Pakistan in such a scenario with its nuclear triad?
dont you believe that having abm 50% success rate(assumption) would btr than having none at all.

I am not sure if it is that high ; even in ''tests''
nevertheless Having some protection is better than none; but developing a BMD is an expensive investment and it's counter measures are relatively easier to develop

 

[MilSpec]

I am not sure if it is that high ; even in ''tests''
nevertheless Having some protection is better than none; but developing a BMD is an expensive investment and it's counter measures are relatively easier to develop

BMD's are only to provide cover to key installations, ...

 

[illusion8]

You assume that one can ever be too careful . Well , that isn't true for one . How about you start using your exact logic for my country then ? How about saying the same for Pakistani missiles that they are developed after considering the opponent's defenses ? The main reason why I wouldn't want to have faith in the BMD's or feel threatened by it deployment is because of their low effectiveness against threats despite the astronomical costs , judging from other country's similar systems , of course . So , if they the world's powers after decades of R&D and insanely spent money do not have confidence in theirs , well so do not have I . These simulations have many variables predetermined and set , therein lies the problem , the real world of course is different .

Where is the lack of confidence in the countries that are developing them? I am surprised at this ridiculous assumption. The simulations and the live tests are what one calls R&D, it surely considers various probables and there is an underlying goal to conquer all those factors.

My basic argument is that a vast BMD system deployed in India -- if we can, and it will take decades more of research, testing and R&D will become more of a threat than a long range SLBM.

 

[Secur]

Where is the lack of confidence in the countries that are developing them? I am surprised at this ridiculous assumption. The simulations and the live tests are what one calls R&D, it surely considers various probables and there is an underlying goal to conquer all those factors.

My basic argument is that a vast BMD system deployed in India -- if we can, and it will take decades more of research, testing and R&D will become more of a threat than a long range SLBM.

You may want to research a little more about the history of ABM systems instead of being " surprised " at the assumption or maybe thinking that the plans for a nation-wide are anything new , they still do not put much faith in their systems due to the astronomically high cost and the low effectiveness hence the exotic plans like Brilliant Pebbles . I am not ridiculing the tests , I am just asking to compare the results of even those tests with your expectations .

Now , come to think of it . There are countries that have been doing all that for decades and still well nothing tangible has come of it , that I can report as a " remedy " . You are free to prove me wrong on the effectiveness of ABM system .

 

[deckingraj]

well said! but if abm shield is able to stop atleast 50% of the missile dont you think it gives enough time to india to annihilate Pakistan in such a scenario with its nuclear triad? dont you believe that having abm 50% success rate(assumption) would btr than having none at all.

Ummm don't make the mistake of attaching ABM with Nuclear tipped missile...ABM is meant for conventional missile...Nuclear Tipped one's are a different ball game...bcoz unless and until you are taking them down right at the ignition stage you are going to have problems...secondly if 50% of those nuclear tipped escaped ABM then you are anyways dead...then feel free to annihilate Pakistan...

 

[Alpha1]

That's a faux pas, what is impossible? an interception of a hundred warheads? how did you figure that out?

The argument that you are putting forward is one of probability - something on the lines of firing a bunch of blanks in the midst of one live one - if that case scenario is probable then intercepting them is also probable. Generic statements such as "Pakistan strategic forces will try it's best to maximize it's chances of success" does not matter because the scientists designing the ABM systems are also trying their best to maximize their chances of success.

The factor that there will be numerous missiles fired at a country in war is the most basic of the factors that comes into consideration - countries who are developing BMD's are not doing it for stand alone missiles - they do it with the worst case scenario in mind.

Not realy ; If you study the details of these tests ; The factors which will be present in a True full scale nuclear exchange are not present

BMD's are only to provide cover to key installations, ...

And ofcource the counter measures will also be concentrated where the BMD is deployed