New Threat to Pakistan with India,s New K4 SLBM test next month

[bloo]

@Secur &
To everyone who say MIRV and MaRV make BMDs futile.

To a certain degree yes, they are effective against ABMs.
However:
MIRV and MaRVs usually are effective after the Ballistic missile's apogee, while in a state of acquiring redirection targets.
They don't launch before reaching the peak apogee, they hurtle down for some time after the apogee, acquiring coordinates and then do their worst, during this period the BM is neither dodging nor segregating into its consecutive MIRVs.
To counter this all the ABM missile/missiles have to do is have an increased altitude.


If two belligerents are far apart(US-China or US-Russia) detection and engagement becomes difficult, whereas in the case of India-Pakistan-China long ranged radars and space based detection systems like the US SBIRS will be more handy with India than with US.


As for MaRV, in the Sixth AAD test the interceptor faced a maneuverable target and destroyed it successfully.

Phase-2 of the BMD will have specialized ship based ABMs for multiple target engagement scenarios and Boost phase missile defense is also being considered.

As for chaffs and decoys, infrared space surveillance(SBIRS) can solve that issue.
The 'SBIRS Low' are specifically present to discriminate between warheads and decoys


As per former DRDO Chief VK Saraswat, Cruise missile defense will follow short after finishing the BMD program.

To everyone who question the scenario in which multiple missiles are the case, it has been considered by DRDO:

A day earlier, Avinash Chander, Chief Controller (Missiles and Strategic Systems), DRDO told the press, "The Mission Control Center will process the two missiles and identify in real time which launcher is best suited to fire its missile against which target. Since one of the two attackers is an imaginary missile, we will not be firing a missile against that. But we will be going to the point of firing up to T-0."

Explaining the need for the test, Chander said, "The missile trial on November 23 (is) aimed at 'a deployable configuration' to intercept multiple adversarial missiles raining down on India.

"We are not able to launch live targets simultaneously because of the limitations of range and geometry. That is, since distances are not available, we are not able to fire two target missiles simultaneously."

Mr. Chander added: "In a real scenario, multiple ballistic missiles may be coming towards India which need to be handled. Our radars can track more than 200 missiles simultaneously. When multiple launchers are deployed, they can handle multiple missiles fired at us. We should be able to track them, process the signals, identify which is a threat and assign the specific launcher-missile that is best suited to intercept them. So far all our interceptor flight-trials have been one missile against one target … So the forthcoming interceptor mission would give the DRDO team a lot of confidence to simultaneously handle multiple targets."

So the crux of the matter is:
Even though MIRVs, MaRVs, chaffs and decoys seem inexpensive, Pakistan is nowhere near implementing them.

 

[Secur]

@bloo

I posted a lot of links about the vulnerability of ABM's to various countermeasures in the previous page - do care to read it out . Suffice to say that Indians are making claims and expecting things which no other country has , with decades of R&D and still considering it providing a minimal protection . Actually the thing that we are close to each other is an added advantage since the flight time is less and the time window small for the adversary . We develop as per our requirements and we dont give much information so underestimate fine but do not claim inability on adversary's part . The ABM is a decade away from getting operational since its under development and we have been working on MIRV since 2004 if reports are to believed .

@Alpha1 Do me a favor and explain to him , how these tests are simulated and the real world scenarios are much different where various factors come into play . The Patriots had a difficult time dealing with Scuds and impartial sources reported it an insignificant defense . The Iron Dome didn't ever have much success against primitive rockets and is considered extremely costly with respect to what it faces and here we have people overestimating beyond all limits their yet to deployed system .

 

[gslv mk3]

@Secur

I can assure you,its not superiority complex,but common logic.Only problem here is,the,claim of 'Indigenous development of certain components,in which Pakistan has no prior experience.'Didnt even China,had to reverse engineer a miniature turbofan,with such experience in GTs?

The Supersonic LRCM may take upto 3 years for testing,before Induction,but thats not the point.The point is India is,ahead in Supersonic CMs with JV Brahmos & another indigenous,one soon.

And some of you may applaud Indian Mars Mission.But a,majority loves to troll about 'gslv failures' & 'poor India going to Mars'.

And you sem to have no idea on MIRVs you are developing.Pakistan havent tested TNs,So you would have to develop a massive payload IRBM (like Agni IIIs 2.5 tonne payload) to carry MIRVs,housing pure fission warheads of 'considerable' yield right?

ABM taking a decade or two more is pure speculation,DRDO plans starting phase II ( 5000 km clasx missile interceptors ) after completing phase 1 (With PDV) this decade.So,phase,one Induction may happen,this decade.

 

[Alpha1]

@bloo
All of the “successful” missile defense tests to date have been under the most carefully controlled conditions imaginable. During a test, the interceptor operators know where the missile was being launched from and when it was being launched.The have all the idea about the dimensions of the missile Basically, having the information that will never be available in a real (full scale) nuclear exchange.
There would be dummy launches, fake warheads, decoys, MIRVs , MARVs everything you can imagine that would make it difficult if not impossible for any Indian missile defense system to determine precisely what is happening.
It is more difficult than hitting a bullet with another bullet,

 

[gslv mk3]

@Secur @Alpha1

The link he posted confirms that the tracking system,is able to track 200 targets simultaneously,right?You think thats not gonna work?

And forget about MIRVs & MIRVs fot now-still not close.

 

[bloo]

@bloo

I posted a lot of links about the vulnerability of ABM's to various countermeasures in the previous page - do care to read it out . Suffice to say that Indians are making claims and expecting things which no other country has , with decades of R&D and still considering it providing a minimal protection . Actually the thing that we are close to each other is an added advantage since the flight time is less and the time window small for the adversary . We develop as per our requirements and we dont give much information so underestimate fine but do not claim inability on adversary's part . The ABM is a decade away from getting operational since its under development and we have been working on MIRV since 2004 if reports are to believed .

I have read your posts.
Well other countries have long distances, larger areas and more manpower to compensate for, we don't.
And you see the small distance doesn't just give you the advantage, but us too.
Satellites and radars are faced in a specific and contained area so faster detection time=faster interception.
And mind you there will be more than one interceptor(T-0)for a single warhead.
And our current radars can track upto 200 targets at a time.
And interceptors moving at Mach 5-10 do seem enough to compensate for the time.
Relax its not like we are going into war tomorrow that we need to compensate for MIRVs that are not even operational, for all we know it could take a decade or more for Pakistan to develop it.
Well Phase-1 is complete and Phase-2's intended timeline is 2016 but lets take 2020 as a fallback, that's still enough time.
As I said chaffs, decoys, MIRVs and MaRVs have already been considered by DRDO and they are developing their systems like wise.

 

[Secur]

@Secur

I can assure you,its not superiority complex,but common logic.Only problem here is,the,claim of 'Indigenous development of certain components,in which Pakistan has no prior experience.'Didnt even China,had to reverse engineer a miniature turbofan,with such experience in GTs?

The Supersonic LRCM may take upto 3 years for testing,before Induction,but thats not the point.The point is India is,ahead in Supersonic CMs with JV Brahmos & another indigenous,one soon.

And some of you may applaud Indian Mars Mission.But a,majority loves to troll about 'gslv failures' & 'poor India going to Mars'.

And you sem to have no idea on MIRVs you are developing.Pakistan havent tested TNs,So you would have to develop a massive payload IRBM (like Agni IIIs 2.5 tonne payload) to carry MIRVs,housing pure fission warheads of 'considerable' yield right?

ABM taking a decade or two more is pure speculation,DRDO plans starting phase II ( 5000 km clasx missile interceptors ) after completing phase 1 (With PDV) this decade.So,phase,one Induction may happen,this decade.

Well , what I see here , usually isn't something we describe as " common logic " in psychology but rather " delusions of grandeur " and " superiority complex " . The problem that defense organization are strictly controlled by the military and rarely is any information allowed to be released , which gives an impression of " things appearing out of thin air " and " happening suddenly " as I had to explain above . The next on the cards that they are miles apart and light years ahead from their civilian counterparts , the R&D and the funds they have , aren't there for the other organizations . So you never know and you cant prove them wrong . Unless of course , you have evidence to the contrary .

To be really honest , I haven't read about it so I will not comment on that . Lets see when it gets inducted and then claim " being ahead " in that field , it will be indisputable then . I know you have a lot of projects ambitious I would call them - under developed/planned/tested but yet they aren't operational - the magic word . Unfortunately , I see the trend of claims that Pakistan cant develop anything/underestimation/declaring it reverse engineered or copied/bought off the shelves and all kinds of ridiculous theories more on the other side going by the responses here .

Of course , I have no idea , they wouldn't personally invite and tell me about the developments they are doing further . Even when it is tested , I will not expect much information to be available regarding it and here you are asking me what type , yield and warhead will be used when nothing is available in public domain just a confirmation that the work is in under progress . Pakistan has tested Nasr and its supposed to be fitted with a tactical nuclear warhead ? What does it point to ? Actually , Shaheen III has been under development for nearly a decade , some say that it is complete but never tested yet due to political implications . I do not rely on this type of reports , so I will go what they say about " MIRV " being developed and it was long before you even had your first PAD test .

Yes , it is speculation but if history is any indication , it is what to expect . You say it yourself now " Phase One induction MAY happen this DECADE " , so why dispute me when I say the same ? What you need to understand that its costly to build an ABM but relatively low cost to deploy countermeasures to reduce its effectiveness/defeat/overwhelm it or render next to useless ( Read US ABM reports on the last page ) when MIRV come into picture .

 

[bloo]

@bloo
All of the “successful” missile defense tests to date have been under the most carefully controlled conditions imaginable. During a test, the interceptor operators know where the missile was being launched from and when it was being launched.The have all the idea about the dimensions of the missile Basically, having the information that will never be available in a real (full scale) nuclear exchange.
There would be dummy launches, fake warheads, decoys, MIRVs , MARVs everything you can imagine that would make it difficult if not impossible for any Indian missile defense system to determine precisely what is happening.
It is more difficult than hitting a bullet with another bullet,

Well Neither does India need to compensate for larger areas or MIRVs segregating over long distances, we know where it is coming from and as for when we just have to be more vigilant.
As for decoys chaffs etc please read about the SBIRS Low which does exactly that, discriminates among them.
And multiple target engagement has already been considered by DRDO where a number of interceptor will engage 1 warhead and if our current radars can track upto 200 targets at once then I'm optimistic about the future.
Actually it will be like hitting a single bullet with a number of bullets.

 

[Secur]

I have read your posts.
Well other countries have long distances, larger areas and more manpower to compensate for, we don't.
And you see the small distance doesn't just give you the advantage, but us too.
Satellites and radars are faced in a specific and contained area so faster detection time=faster interception.
And mind you there will be more than one interceptor(T-0)for a single warhead.
And our current radars can track upto 200 targets at a time.
And interceptors moving at Mach 5-10 do seem enough to compensate for the time.
Relax its not like we are going into war tomorrow that we need to compensate for MIRVs that are not even operational, for all we know it could take a decade or more for Pakistan to develop it.
Well Phase-1 is complete and Phase-2's intended timeline is 2016 but lets take 2020 as a fallback, that's still enough time.
As I said chaffs, decoys, MIRVs and MaRVs have already been considered by DRDO and they are developing their systems like wise.

Well then you shouldn't have compared " simulated tests " to " real world " scenarios then . The long distance does help in tracking much earlier and gives a long time window to act , you cant deny that . There is no larger area to consider since a shield isn't supposed to protect every inch of a country but if the " zone " to be protected is large , so are that country's resources too . Gives you an advantage sure but complicates thing too , when dozens of missiles are being launched . Track for all you want , how many interceptors are there to bring them down , what are their costs and what is the effectiveness ? Even the world's best do not beyond 50% successful intercept probability after decades of R&D and billions poured in . Lets hear what do you bring on the table .

Its not about time going to war tomorrow but about the thinking that the adversary is sleeping in the meantime and will not develop counters to it and somehow the Indians have overcome/bypassed all limitations faced by the lagging anti missile technology .

Something that even Americans and The former Soviets and the current Russians aren't even sure about and you seem certain for some reason here , why is that ?

 

[The Deterrent]

The reports are vague , I know , but they confirm the MIRV thing . What do you mean to say ? What other missiles are capable of carrying multiple warheads ?

An under-development missile would have that capability.

And check @AhaseebA s post on MIRVs & Shaheen.Which RV would you use?What would be the yield?How many would a Shaheen carry?what sort of warhead?TNW?FBF?

You misunderstood my post.

Most probably there would be 3 RVs (just like the baby steps of US [on Polaris SLBM]). I don't know why you keep bringing in the TN (thermonuclear) and FBF (fission-boosted-fusion) jargons again and again...for MIRVs, existing fission/boosted-fission warheads with around ~20-50kt yield would be enough. And they don't weigh more than a few hundred kgs (Reference: Warheads of Babur/Ra'ad).

These all are speculations, and just because you don't get to see the details or terms like "Mk.6 Re-entry Vehicle", doesn't means that the system does not exists.

So the crux of the matter is:
Even though MIRVs, MaRVs, chaffs and decoys seem inexpensive, Pakistan is nowhere near implementing them.

Another quite confident claim.

 

[Alpha1]

When multiple launchers are deployed, they can handle multiple missiles fired at us. We should be able to track them, process the signals, identify which is a threat and assign the specific launcher-missile that is best suited to intercept them.

Well Neither does India need to compensate for larger areas or MIRVs segregating over long distances, we know where it is coming from and as for when we just have to be more vigilant.
As for decoys chaffs etc please read about the SBIRS Low which does exactly that, discriminates among them And multiple target engagement has already been considered by DRDO where a number of interceptor will engage 1 warhead and if our current radars can track upto 200 targets at once then I'm optimistic about the future.
Actually it will be like hitting a single bullet with a number of bullet.
.

Incase you know the size of the warhead itself only then it can diffrentiate between them,
In a real life scenario not a simulation you will never have this kind of information that you have in the simulations.
heck, The number of missilles and warheads , chaff , decoys, will be more than your tracking system can track, deffrentiate between.your sensors and tracking systems will be overwhelmed

 

[Secur]

Another quite confident claim.

I do not understand the confidence at least when the other countries with much superior technologies wouldn't put it this way ever . All these counter measures are considered to be major headaches - even the debris falling off the booster rocket . Forget the chaff's , decoys , MIRV's etc .

 

[gslv mk3]

@Secur

Thats somepure hyperbole from you.My assumptions were derived from two,easily,understood facts.

1.Complex systems ( like a turbofan ) can only be made with a lot of experience & expertise-which Pakistan doesnt have.
2.If it seems,like countries which have more experience need long development period/help by reverse engineering,a country that doesnt have expertise may not be able to build such a system on its own.

How,many establishmemts ( Like in China & India ) in Pakistan have developed turbofans?How many have theexpertise?

So tommorow if Pakistan claims that they have developed a 1000kN cryogenic engine indigenously,Should I believe that too.??

A JV kne is already operational,and indigenous one,may be in 3-4 years.That makes us ahead of Pakistan.

A tactical sub kiloton Warhead on a Strategic BM?Sweet mother of God!!!
Do you know that we may have 200 kT TNW s on our MIRVs??

DRDO has,already informed that PAD & PDV are ready,but We would need PDV,which is due to test early 2014.And the work on phase two would happen after phase 1,& they plan to begin it by 2015-2016 -That was inference from DRDO released info.

 

[Secur]

@Secur

Thats somepure hyperbole from you.My assumptions were derived from two,easily,understood facts.

1.Complex systems ( like a turbofan ) can only be made with a lot of experience & expertise-which Pakistan doesnt have.
2.If it seems,like countries which have more experience need long development period/help by reverse engineering,a country that doesnt have expertise may not be able to build such a system on its own.

How,many establishmemts ( Like in China & India ) in Pakistan have developed turbofans?How many have theexpertise?

So tommorow if Pakistan claims that they have developed a 1000kN cryogenic engine indigenously,Should I believe that too.??

A JV kne is already operational,and indigenous one,may be in 3-4 years.That makes us ahead of Pakistan.

DRDO has,already informed that PAD & PDV are ready,but We would need PDV,which is due to test early 2014.And the work on phase two would happen after phase 1,& they plan to begin it by 2015-2016 -That was inference from DRDO released info.

I am not surprised , I knew what was coming next . This is the usual drill I have with members from the other side . Now this is what is called " underestimation " , that Pakistan doesn't the capability/expertise to do this and that , may I ask how you derive that information from ? Just because they aren't apparent or you cant comprehend them , they do not exist , really ? I said there's an embargo on information , that is why , you will not get constant updates or streams of information like in India which doesn't mean they aren't progressing or carrying out R&D . This is a simple point , I have been explaining all along . Another thing is " we are good at improvisation , smart working , making the best out of our always tight budget " . Maybe it was reverse engineered , there's no information available yet again which can confirm it all . The official version therefore , is the best thing to go by .

No that doesn't . Not again . Because that is a joint venture in the first place and the rest aren't operational but merely planned/under development/being tested projects . Claim superiority when they get operational . I made a typo there , instead of thermonuclear warhead , I wrote the Tactical one , savvy ? Of course , a 0.5-5 kT warhead is of no use .

The question is why you disputed that when I claimed the same " a decade or two " time frame when you are confirming it yourself now here ? If they plan to begin it by 2016 , how long until it gets completed , operational and then significantly deployed ? Last time , I checked they were still being tested , unless something new has happened in the meantime .

 

[Donatello]

Why is it a threat for Pakistan?

Most of Indian missiles already cover all of Pakistan and most of Pakistani missiles cover all the main areas in India.

So tell me, are you suggesting that by having these new missiles, India is somewhat immune to what Pakistan can strike back with?