Some tid bids from EagleHannan
our dealing with China is more of a Strategic Partner than just a neighbor and in that sense of you think, you will know that many things too good to be true are on the table. Before we say it takes times for such things to develop, lets look at the situation in strategic terms. The region is becoming hot bed of activity for super powers, everyone is active as this area is of vital importance as a future energy corridor. China is facing loss of grip in South China seas and its other shipping routes. Moreover these routes Can not sustain China's current growth and China can not depend on them for its future with US and other stooges hell bent to disrupt Chinese military and economic ambitions. I am saying it with 100% confidence. How do I know, lets just say I am a witness of such views expressed from people in Chinese labor party. I can not share the material but I was amazed to attend a presentation where the Chinese expressed the importance of Gawadar in China's future strategy and importance of Pakistan as its strategic partner. It is the reason why China is more than forth coming and inshallah will have to stay this way in the future too that it wants to make sure, Pakistan's security needs are more than met. It is the reason why the are making sure, we do not see any other but Chinese way. Question is, do they want us to be dependant? Answer is both yes and no. The importance of Gawadar and Arabian Sea in Chinese economy and defense strategy is immense. We can discuss it at other time.
Coming to topic at hand, things are progressing faster than we anticipated but like all military acquisitions, there are delays and hiccups. While I agree with you on that normally such radical developments take time. But 8 years to develop and put in operation a fighter which many thought could be no more than an F7 replacement has already shocked the world. Then it was always planned to manufacture in batches not because of changes that might need to be made on the platform itself. China and Pakistan took a lot of time, freezing this air frame in the present condition. The whole focus is on the avionics and weapons development at the moment. At least for JFT.
The current political situation has dictated that while we can incorporate some sub systems in JFT, the major components like radars and EW suits are not available from the west and seems like they wont be. If you remember the news, Pakistan always stated that it is looking for a western radar and avionics suit for JFT and many names appeared on the horizon as candidates. Because of the urgency (replacement of Fantans and F7s) Pakistan agreed to induct KLJ7 radar over all western radars because it fulfilled the BASIC requirement @ decent cost. I never commented but I always thought that KLJ7 was not something PAF would want to settle for a long time. Moreover, while as you said, radars and avionic suits development takes a lot of time, so does replacement of a full system from an aircraft and replace it with something else totally. Imagine the cost of replacing sensors suits + radar of 50 JFTs already in service specially when there is only one facility to do it all. CAC obviously wont be helping us with western radars and avionic suits.
Original plan was that PAC will have a joint venture for avionics and radar for the block2 aircraft with some western company. The block 2 radar and avionics suit would then be acquired with ToT and Pakistan will make all the western avionics with license of production. This will be the last bock for at least 200 production untis + export units. Then 2 things happened. 1) Because of geo political reasons, no supplier came forward with ToT and license production except those which PAF had already rejected as not being better than KLJ7. 2) China came forward with a new radar that incorporates and adds to existing sensor suit enhancing capability many folds with ToT (sharing than transfer). The new radar proved to be better in economic terms and is a viable solution for foreseeable future. Add to this, the close cooperation between PAC and CAC. Resulting is even faster production rate for aircrafts. Now if you add this to the geo policitcal situation of the region and Pakistan's immediate and dire need to beef up its defenses with modern air arm, the situation becomes clear.
I suspect and am hopeful about silence on JFT front from PAF means something good is going on. I am also now speculative of radar type but like I confirmed before from reliable sources, the swash plat based AESA radar for JFT was ready before PMs visit to China. I tried to find out many times if there is any prototype of JFT is flying with the new avionic suits but couldnt confirm it. Unlike FC20, about which I could squeeze out information like 2 prototypes are flying and both Chinese and Pakistani teams are testing both the air frame and avionics.
Soon enough new pictures of FC20 also surfaced to confirm reports. As you know defense acquisitions often have certain conditions associated. While I reported that 4 FC20 inshallah are to join PAF by year's end (the confirmation was from a responsible person) I was not told nor I asked the conditions associated. You and me can only report from our contacts (for sheer patriotism and love of PAF to know about it) and can make sure that we do get info from reliable people. But we know mostly one side of the story and are totally unaware of the other conditions associated in defense deals. Like for instance its economic terms, and fall back plans.
What PAF contacts in our family and circle of friends can tell us is "whats going on now" but of course they can never reveal to us the fall back plans if the present fails either on technical bases or if policy is like; if A is at X condition now, previously was at Y condition and B is at XX condition. We will not invest in A any more, leave it as it is and try to update A platform's Y condition while we'll focus more on B platform with XX condition. I hope you catch my drift.
We report here on the bases of what we find out. Definitely at one point A could have been and was to be at X condition and we reported it here while PAF exercised the fall back policy and kept it at Y. This is how things work and this is what forums and think tanks do. Speculate on the bases of solid information of present and its translation into the future. No think tank has power over players.
I am very hopeful that all is a go ahead with JFTs new radar + avionics and no news indeed is good news Inshallah.
My bad!!!
