I don't think Israel really needs American money. The $3 billion /year in 'aid' is mostly for military purposes and is a small part of the Israeli economy. Israel can survive, even thrive without that aid. Much has been said about Israel starving American 'aid'. That's utterly wrong. Of course, 'free' money is always welcome by anyone!
It is the diplomatic cover given by Americans--and American-influenced countries--which is the key to Israel's survival. Without American veto it will not be very hard to inflict punishing sanctions against Israel via the UNSC.
Israel really does not have any friends except what it can proxy through the American Congress through the Israeli Lobbies. Just today EU's Ashton said that the EU's position is that the W. Bank Settlements are 'illegal' in their eyes. Imagine the implication of that statement if one were to remove the American influence over the EU? Israel will shrink to a status lower than even the Apartheid South Africa--and deservedly so.
But you are correct in general. In a conventional one-to-one between Israel and Turkey, the latter will eventually prevail. I am fairly confident of that. Turkey is not some bedouin army.