Iran to react if US prevents lifting arms embargo as per nuclear deal: President Rouhani

[Aramagedon]

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani addresses a cabinet session in Tehran on June 14, 2020. (Photo by IRNA)

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani says the country will not remain indifferent and will show suitable reaction if the US tries to prevent lifting of arms embargo against the Islamic Republic, which will end this year in accordance with the landmark nuclear deal that Tehran clinched with six world powers back in 2015.

During past months, Washington has stepped up calls for the extension of a UN arms embargo on Iran, which will expire in October under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorses Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The administration of US President Donald Trump has threatened that it may seek to trigger a snapback of all sanctions on Iran if its attempts to extend the arms embargo fail.

The landmark nuclear deal was reached between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries -- the US, Britain, France, Russia and China plus Germany -- in 2015. However, in May 2018, US President Trump unilaterally pulled his country out of the JCPOA and re-imposed the sanctions that had been lifted against Tehran and began unleashing the “toughest ever” fresh sanctions.

While the US is no longer a party to the JCPOA, it has launched a campaign to renew the Iran arms ban — in place since 2006/2007 -- through a resolution at the Security Council, but Russia and China are most likely to veto it.

Addressing a cabinet session on Sunday, Rouhani said, “The termination of the arms ban [on Iran] ... is one of the important achievements of the JCPOA and if Americans want to question this achievement, other big countries know what our reaction will be."

The Iranian president also expressed hope that “all countries who are members of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors” of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), would be aware of “the US planning with regard to these plots.”

“We, for our part, will be successful in this regard and will weather these plans that the United States has made for Iran,” he noted.

Posting a tweet in early June, Iran’s UN ambassador said the US' call for an extension of the UN Security Council's arms embargo on Tehran lacked legal standing in international law.


'US has no right to call for extension of Iran arms embargo'
Iran’s UN ambassador says the US' call for an extension of the UN Security Council's arms embargo on Tehran lacks legal standing in international law.
Majid Takht-e Ravanchi said the US ambassador to the UN "wrongly" believes the US retains the right to initiate snapback of sanctions under the UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

"WRONG: US cannot be a JCPOA 'Participant', since Donald Trump ceased US participation," the Iranian ambassador noted, referring to Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw his country from the Iran nuclear deal in violation of the Resolution 2231.

In the middle of May, China and Russia also rejected US plans to extend a UN arms embargo on Iran along with a probable push to trigger a return of all sanctions on Tehran at the UN Security Council.

The "US has no right to extend an arms embargo on Iran, let alone to trigger snapback,” China’s UN mission wrote in a tweet.


Russia, China slam US plan to extend UN arms embargo on Iran
Russian and China reject US plans to extend a UN arms embargo and trigger UN sanctions on Iran.
“Maintaining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is the only right way moving forward,” he added.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov vehemently rejected the plan as a “cynical” measure plunging the UN Security Council into crisis.

"The conclusion is that the next crisis in the UN Security Council and the UN as a whole is imminent, taking into account this US stubbornness," he said, adding, “Washington will not have an easy road here in any case.”

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Tuesday that the US has already pulled out of the international nuclear agreement and cannot currently use its former membership of the deal to seek a permanent arms embargo on Tehran.


Top EU diplomat: EU: US no longer party to Iran deal, can’t invoke JCPOA
The European Union’s top diplomat says the US is no longer a party to the Iran nuclear deal and cannot use its former membership in the accord to seek a permanent arms embargo against Tehran.
“The United States has withdrawn from the JCPOA, and now they cannot claim that they are still part of the JCPOA in order to deal with this issue from the JCPOA agreement. They withdraw. It’s clear. They withdraw,” Borrell said.

The EU believes that the JCPOA plays a key role in maintaining regional and international security and has made efforts to keep the pact alive despite US pressure.

Borrell is tasked with supervising the circumstances surrounding the implementation of the nuclear deal so he can help resolve disputes between its signatories.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/06/14/627449/Rouhani-arms-embargo-Iran-US-JCPOA

 

[Trango Towers]

But what can iran do. Sadly america is a thug and has leverage?. Today its friends of Saudis tomorrow it's their enemy. America has no friends. Just interests

 

[Philosopher]

But what can iran do.

Iran has a multitude of options. They range from Leaving the JCPOA and/or Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NPT) to doing nothing and seeing what happens first in the US elections. Iran's responses are based on its own calculations. They are not driven by emotions or an irrational reflex response.

 

[Imran Khan]

still he is dreaming of that dead deal . USA will try her best to block arms

 

[mangekyo]

Iran has a multitude of options. They range from Leaving the JCPOA and/or Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NPT) to doing nothing and seeing what happens first in the US elections. Iran's responses are based on its own calculations. They are not driven by emotions or an irrational reflex response.

Leaving JCPOA and or NPT just means more sanctions. The only effective response is to develop nukes and ICBM and demand lifting of all sanctions in exchange of giving up nuclear warheads. Then the sanctions will begin again and we will fall into a loop. Our only solution is to somehow work our differences with US and Israel, there is no other solution, unless several of the liberal US states like California declares independence from war mongering Texas

 

[QWECXZ]

Leaving JCPOA and or NPT just means more sanctions. The only effective response is to develop nukes and ICBM and demand lifting of all sanctions in exchange of giving up nuclear warheads. Then the sanctions will begin again and we will fall into a loop. Our only solution is to somehow work our differences with US and Israel, there is no other solution, unless several of the liberal US states like California declares independence from war mongering Texas

And we need to leave the NPT to develop nukes and ICBMs. Or at least we must completely violate our responsibilities under the NPT. Most importantly, we must stop the IAEA inspections by removing all the cameras from our nuclear facilities and not issuing visas for the IAEA inspectors.

 

[mangekyo]

And we need to leave the NPT to develop nukes and ICBMs.

I know, but it will only result in a never ending loop where they sanction us, we develop nuclear weapons, we make a deal like JCPOA and give up our nuclear weapons, they sanction us again, we develop nuclear weapons with some improvements, make a new deal etc. It's not a solution.

 

[Philosopher]

Leaving JCPOA and or NPT just means more sanctions.

At this stage, what else are they going to sanction in Iran?

The only effective response is to develop nukes and ICBM and demand lifting of all sanctions in exchange of giving up nuclear warheads.

There are two elements to this. One is a covert and the other is the overt element.
Covertly speaking, Iran could already be a nuclear weapon holder but I will not discuss this given it is nigh impossible to comment with certainty.

Overtly, Iran has already demonstrated de facto ICBM technology and also it has a latent nuclear weapons capability. Thus, the message that should be sent, has been sent. The reason Iran is not overtly going nuclear is not necessarily due to sanctions, but the potential proliferation of nuclear weapon in the region that may ensue as a fallout of it. Therefore, short of a seismic shift in Iran's deterrence doctrine, I would not expect Iran to go nuclear, overtly.

Our only solution is to somehow work our differences with US and Israel, there is no other solution, unless several

No, that is not Iran's only solution. Firstly, the notion that Iran will work out its differences (or even manage them) between it and Israel is not probable to the extend that we would even consider it in this discussion. There are core ideological differences at play here. This also applies to the US but to a different extent. Secondly, we need to remember that a large chunk of Iran's problem is due to the internal mismanagement. Iran's solution is to focus on fixing this situation first. Once achieved, it will become greatly insulated from the effect of sanctions.

Leaving NPT has its benefits. Recall that many of these sanctions that have been placed on Iran in the UNSC were due to claims Iran had been violating the NPT.

 

[mangekyo]

At this stage, what else are they going to sanction in Iran?

Trust me, US,EU and UN will find something to sanction.

There are two elements to this. One is a covert and the other is the overt element.
Covertly speaking, Iran could already be a nuclear weapon holder but I will not discuss this given it is nigh impossible to comment with certainty.

Overtly, Iran has already demonstrated de facto ICBM technology and also it has a latent nuclear weapons capability. Thus, the message that should be sent, has been sent. The reason Iran is not overtly going nuclear is not necessarily due to sanctions, but the potential proliferation of nuclear weapon in the region that may ensue as a fallout of it. Therefore, short of a seismic shift in Iran's deterrence doctrine, I would not expect Iran to go nuclear, overtly.

I'm thinking more in the sense of developing an ICBM designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Even if we have ICBMS, we do not have nuclear warheads, so technically, we do not have missiles designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. If we develop nuclear warheads and test it, then technically, one can assume the ICBMs we design are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

No, that is by not Iran's only solution. Firstly, the notion that Iran will work out its differences (or even manage them) between it and Israel is not probable to the extend that we would even consider it in this discussion. There are core ideological differences at play here. This also applies to the US but to a different extent. Secondly, we need to remember that a large chunk of Iran's problem is due to the internal mismanagement.

What other solutions are there then? I agree we have lots of internal problems, corruption is big, our political system is flawed etc. But even if we fix all of our internal problems, we will never catch up to our full potential.

Leaving NPT has its benefits. Recall that many of these sanctions that have been placed on Iran in the UNSC were due to claims Iran had been violating the NPT.

What benefits are there? As long as US threatens to sanction European, Chinese and Russian companies that do business with us. No one is going to do business with us. NPT, UN, EU, they dont mean anything. Israel hasn't signed NPT, and Israel have been violating more UN resolutions than any other country in the world, yet there are no sanctions on Israel. If anyone sanctions Israel, US will sanction them, ergo no one will sanction Israel.

 

[QWECXZ]

I know, but it will only result in a never ending loop where they sanction us, we develop nuclear weapons, we make a deal like JCPOA and give up our nuclear weapons, they sanction us again, we develop nuclear weapons with some improvements, make a new deal etc. It's not a solution.

Yeah. Unfortunately our foreign policy has become like North Korea but with a more rational and less aggressive tone. The main thing that makes us different from them is that we have some control over energy resources of the world, both as a regional power in the Middle East and as an energy super power. If it weren't for that, we would've become exactly like North Korea.

I have said it before and I continue to say it that we need to expand our power by selling cheap goods to relatively poor and developing countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Southern Asia. We can import what we need from them. There are lots of things we can import from them. Minerals like uranium, agricultural products, meat, etc. And we should also invest in cryptocurrencies.

Trust me, US,EU and UN will find something to sanction.

They can find "something" to sanction, but it won't have an effect on us anymore. They have already sanctioned nearly 98% of our exports (oil, gas, petrochemicals, aluminum and steel industries, our shipping lines, etc.) and an important part of our imports.

 

[mangekyo]

Yeah. Unfortunately our foreign policy has become like North Korea but with a more rational and less aggressive tone. The main thing that makes us different from them is that we have some control over energy resources of the world, both as a regional power in the Middle East and as an energy super power. If it weren't for that, we would've become exactly like North Korea.

I have said it before and I continue to say it that we need to expand our power by selling cheap goods to relatively poor and developing countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Southern Asia. We can import what we need from them. There are lots of things we can import from them. Minerals like uranium, agricultural products, meat, etc. And we should also invest in cryptocurrencies.

And let's not kid ourselves, the only reason we became a regional power is because US created a power vacuum in the middle east which we took advantage of.

We need to improve our infrastructure.
We need to stop wasting money on subsidizing everything.
We need to stop wasting billions in buying stuff on the black market for 100x list price.
We need to stop going going to third parties in Italy, UAE and Turkey to buy goods that we are not allowed to import ourselves, and buy them directly instead.
We need to stop trading oil for cheap Chinese goods.
We need to strengthen our currency and drastically increase average income.
We need to increase our living standards.
There are so many more things we need to do, and it all costs money which we do not have because we are wasting billions on going around sanctions.

 

[Philosopher]

Trust me, US,EU and UN will find something to sanction.

There is a large difference between just finding something to sanction and sanctions that will deliver great effects. If there was anything else the Americans could sanctions that would have such effects, then ask yourself what this is and why have the Americans have not sanctioned this yet?

I'm thinking more in the sense of developing an ICBM designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Even if we have ICBMS, we do not have nuclear warheads, so technically, we do not have missiles designed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. If we develop nuclear warheads and test it, then technically, one can assume the ICBMs we design are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

There is not such thing as an ICBM "designed" to carry nuclear warheads. As long as the missile can deliver the payload of sufficient size and mass, then it can deliver it whether they are a nuclear or non nuclear payload. The issue of warhead design is separate.

What other solutions are there then? I agree we have lots of internal problems, corruption is big, our political system is flawed etc. But even if we fix all of our internal problems, we will never catch up to our full potential.

That was the solution. If Iran fixes its internal issues (and that is a large if), then it can start to overcome the sanctions and grow. Eventually nations will start to build relations with Iran and the sanctions will crumple regardless of how strongly the Americans attempt to press their secondary sanctions. If you expect Iran to break free from sanctions today, then the only way that will happen is capitulate to the demands of the Americans, those demand basically call for a completely different nature in Iran's conduct, i.e de facto regime change. This will obviously not happen. Therefore the only solution is what I outlined and it is a long term plan.

What benefits are there? As long as US threatens to sanction European, Chinese and Russian companies that do business with us. No one is going to do business with us.
NPT, UN, EU, they dont mean anything. Israel hasn't signed NPT, and Israel have been violating more UN resolutions than any other country in the world, yet there are no sanctions on Israel. If anyone sanctions Israel, US will sanction them, ergo no one will sanction Israel.

I said, the NPT was/is being used an excuse to sanction Iran. Therefore Iran leaving it will force them to find new excuses to try and put pressure and it will also highlight their hypocrisy even further regarding Israel. But in reality, the concept is this, if the NPT has not led to anything in Iran's interest, then why should it remain in it? Just to please the Europeans? Time for these fake quid pro quo that have not materialised in Iran's benefit has come to an end.

 

[QWECXZ]

And let's not kid ourselves, the only reason we became a regional power is because US created a power vacuum in the middle east which we took advantage of.

We need to improve our infrastructure.
We need to stop wasting money on subsidizing everything.
We need to stop wasting billions in buying stuff on the black market for 100x list price.
We need to stop going going to third parties in Italy, UAE and Turkey to buy goods that we are not allowed to import ourselves, and buy them directly instead.
We need to stop trading oil for cheap Chinese goods.
We need to strengthen our currency and drastically increase average income.
We need to increase our living standards.
There are so many more things we need to do, and it all costs money which we do not have because we are wasting billions on going around sanctions.

Iran was a regional power even before increasing its influence in Iraq after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. But the US mistake in Iraq solidified our status as a regional power. Otherwise, even in 1990s, we had a nuclear industry, we had a missile program, we had strong presence in Syria and Lebanon and we had an economy that was growing rapidly. So, nope. You are kidding yourself if you think the US made us a regional power by creating a power vacuum in the Middle East.

• Our infrastructure is improving already and it's very good by regional standards.

• I agree we need to reduce subsidies, but Ahmadinejad wanted to do that and he faced a lot of criticism. You can't remove subsidies without controlling the inflation first. Unless you want riots like in last year's October.

• We can't stop buying stuff from the black market as long as we are under sanctions.

• Chinese goods are neither cheap nor bad. China is currently one of the leading nations in almost anything. A sizeable number of American companies produce their products in China.

• We can't strengthen our currency as long as the world is dominated by the US dollar.

• Our living standards are improving. Our HDI has been increasing constantly and we are 60th in the world. The only reason we haven't made it to better than 60% is because our GDP PPP has decreased from 21,000 to 18,000 after Trump's sanctions.

• We need about 40 billion dollars for our imports and our exports are about that now. And our GDP will stop shrinking and start expanding after 2022.

If we want to make fundamental changes, we must become a US ally. We should allow American oil companies to come to Iran and loot our resources like before and we must recognize Israel and support them.

There is not such thing as an ICBM "designed" to carry nuclear warheads. As long as the missile can deliver the payload of sufficient size and mass, then it can deliver it whether they are a nuclear or non nuclear payload. The issue of warhead design is separate.

Actually there is. You need to coat your reentry vehicle with materials that burn to keep your warhead safe. The reentry vehicle of an ICBM is the most difficult part of designing an ICBM after a country has mastered multi-stage rockets.

 

[mangekyo]

There is a large difference between just finding something to sanction and sanctions that will deliver great effects. If there was anything else the Americans could sanctions that would have such effects, then ask yourself what this is and why have the Americans have not sanctioned this yet?

For instance, the tankers that we sent to Venezuela, had there been UN,EU and US sanctions on our oil. Dont you think they would have stopped our tankers if there was a united front between EU, UN and US against Iran? Having only US as an enemy is better than having US and the entire EU and UN as an enemy.

There is not such thing as an ICBM "designed" to carry nuclear warheads. As long as the missile can deliver the payload of sufficient size and mass, then it can deliver wither nuclear or non nuclear payload. The issue of warhead design is separate.

There is a difference. There are no UN resolutions on our ballistic missiles, but there are UN resolutions on ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear weapons.

That was the solution. If Iran fixes its internal issues (and that is a large if), then it can start to overcome the sanctions and grow. Eventually nations will start to build relations with Iran and the sanctions will crumple regardless of how strongly the Americans attempt to press their secondary sanctions. If you expect Iran to break free from sanctions today, then the only way that will happen is capitulate to the demands of the Americans, those demand basically call for a completely different nature in Iran's conduct, i.e de facto regime change. This will obviously not happen. Therefore the only solution is what I outlined and it is a long term plan.

Thats the thing. I dont believe anyone will build relations with us and do business with us as long as US threatens to sanction them.

I said, the NPT was/is being used an excuse to sanction Iran. Therefore Iran leaving it will force them to find new excuses to try and put pressure and it will also highlight their hypocrisy even further regarding Israel. But in reality, the concept is this, if the NPT has not led to anything in Iran's interest, then why should it remain in it? Just to please the Europeans? Time for these false quid pro quo that have not materialised in Iran's benefit has come to an end.

As I said, having US as our enemy is better than having the entire EU, UN and US as our enemy. You need to also consider there is a chance that the next time we send trucks to Turkey, they will be stopped at the border. The next time we send our airplanes to Europe, they will refuse them to land. They can ban all airplanes from landing at our airports. The next time we send a cargo ship to anywhere, they will stop it. They can ban all Iranian passport holders of buying any goods as a measure to stop them from shipping them to Iran.

 

[Philosopher]

Actually there is. You need to coat your reentry vehicle with materials that burn to keep your warhead safe. The reentry vehicle of an ICBM is the most difficult part of designing an ICBM after a country has mastered multi-stage rockets.

That is the case for both for conventional and non-conventional warheads and has nothing to do with this notion of an ICBM "designed" to carry a nuclear warhead. There is no such thing.