Indian Ocean Peaceful Geo-Political Pivot Or Contentious Source of Hedging

[Tinu]

C'mon yaar, you guys are basing your strength on bigger economy and strong armed forces. Look at the geostrategic and geopolitic environment that exist around you. Can you intrusively extend influence in your west and force Pakistan to do as India says - NO you can't. Pakistan is a nuclear power and has strong armed forces. Can you force your eastern lands i.e. the Chinese similarly - No Sir you can't. The only guys you can intrusively influence are Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, Maldives etc. Does this make you an emerging global power. You can not influence your own regional powers less the smaller ones. Your navy can not intrusively dominate the Indian Ocean due to presence of other bigger powers. So what are you and where do you think you can use a non-influence which you so fervently propagate.

Wake up guys and read the ground realities without day dreaming.

Good response Bha Ji. Hidustanion ko unki auqat dikha di ......... wah wah wah

 

[Tinu]

Nehru's dream (1930s) of India standing amongst the great nations of the world is going to remain a dream, at least in our life time and beyond as well. Inki faujein kold start karte karte freeze hi ho jaein gi. Lage Raho Munna Bhai

 

[NALANDA]

What we are doing is a long drawn process and will materialize in a decade or so. ....and the force behind is the booming economy. With sustain effort we will have the stregth ( both miliatry and economic ) that nobody will mess with. Just my numbers of foot-soldiers won't do, one has to be in a position to sustain war for a month or so .....and this capacity not many has. War is the last resort for Indians. We prefer all the other means before...and have been successful in those other means.....

25 years back, when I was in Std I , we would boast that USSR is by our side and USSR will do this, USSR will do that ( knowing that India was a developing economy and in world media for bad reasons - drought / floods / terrorist attack and oh yes Poverty ).....Paksitanis are doing the same now iwth respect to China..............we have moved on and trust our own capabilities and know vetry well that one can only count on one's ability and not on some Uncle VVIP connections, trust me, when you will really, really , really need them, their lines will be very busy. Your leaders are not telling you, its not too far that Pakistan rushed to China and USA for help during Kargil war..pleaze re-visit what happened to your leadres than....

We only trust ourself now and knows that if we are capable, everybody will come and join the big party thrown by us..and hence all these investments. Indian Ocean is Indian Ocean. But to make it truly an Indian Ocean, we are working hard and have long term plans.

Pakistan may have Nuclear Bomb, submarines, but if it is not able to get back on the economic growth path, there is the real danger of it becoming, day by day, more like Afghanistan. India need not go to war with Pakistan. It will simply watch the develpoments from the sidelines... If you have some sense of history, you will acknowledge that India's position in the world has only becoem better in the last decade that what it was in the past..compare this with the slide in your image........this will further take concrete form in a decade and who knows by that time you guys decide to come home.....

 

[Tinu]

Nalanda Bhai,
In today's interdependent world, one has to lean on others to seek support because of economic and political interdependency. This is a reality. You guys leaned towards Americans and declared China as your No 1 enemy. You did that for economic reason thinking that others are fools. Your military deployment defies the No 1 enemy theory for China as much much less forces are deployed against China and about 80 percent are deployed against Pakistan.
Now, Pakistan has good relations with China and with the US and the West as well despite the ups and downs, which happens in such relations between countries when high stake games are being played. But all are straining to keep the relations better. Because we are currently in the eye of a storm, this does not mean it will remain as such forever. We will rise and because we are a relatively smaller country, we will be able to rebuild rather quickly than the Indian who would take much longer to improve - After all its indeed very very difficult to feed 800 million hungry, homeless and undernourished teeming crowd, despite strong armed forces, which as explained above by this guy Ticker would be unusable.
However, we don't need China to fight our wars - that we have the capability and intent to fight - AND WE WILL. Therefore please shed away this funny thinking that because Pakistan's and Chinese interests are similar we will ask the Chinese to fight for us.

 

[great]

C'mon yaar, you guys are basing your strength on bigger economy and strong armed forces. Look at the geostrategic and geopolitic environment that exist around you. Can you intrusively extend influence in your west and force Pakistan to do as India says - NO you can't. Pakistan is a nuclear power and has strong armed forces. Can you force your eastern lands i.e. the Chinese similarly - No Sir you can't. The only guys you can intrusively influence are Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, Maldives etc. Does this make you an emerging global power. You can not influence your own regional powers less the smaller ones. Your navy can not intrusively dominate the Indian Ocean due to presence of other bigger powers. So what are you and where do you think you can use a non-influence which you so fervently propagate.

Wake up guys and read the ground realities without day dreaming.

Its you who are ignoring the economic interests of all three countries and basing everything on sustained conflict among these countries which is moronic. As these countries grow, they would get interlocked by common interests. They would prefer not to interfere with in their zone of spheres. Obviously Pakistan or any small country cannot take on India alone, can it? If you answer yes, then you are delusional as I suspected.

Why do you perceive India's and China's interests would not align in global matters? Even if so, why do you think China can bully India into anything? Actually how is China is perceived to be bigger than India? Bigger in what aspect? Military? Would you agree America is stronger militarily than China now? If so, would you say America can influence China in South China sea. No, similar would be the case in 2050 between China and India.

Also btw, India and US together can effectively counter China in every sphere. Also world has more democracies, they would rather side with other democracies than an authoritarian state. Europe would definitely side India. Its only failed states who would side with China. So next time you talk about geo-politics, would appreciate if you look at broader perspective. Look at how China and Pakistan are perceived outside your countries and then rant.

PS: What is influencing other countries in your sense? We will be able to safeguard our interests in any deal we have with other countries. If we feel someone is acting against our interests we'll take the appropriate actions. Didn't we do it in 1971? Which country stopped us? Stop thinking too much of yourself. Sometimes it is better to read on your own real history.

 

[great]

Good response Bha Ji. Hidustanion ko unki auqat dikha di ......... wah wah wah

are yaara.. pakistaniyon ki aukat bhi kya hai..bahar jate hi terrorist bolte hain tum logon ko..aukat ki kya bath kar raha bhai.

 

[Tinu]

Its you who are ignoring the economic interests of all three countries and basing everything on sustained conflict among these countries which is moronic. As these countries grow, they would get interlocked by common interests. They would prefer not to interfere with in their zone of spheres. Obviously Pakistan or any small country cannot take on India alone, can it? If you answer yes, then you are delusional as I suspected.

Why do you perceive India's and China's interests would not align in global matters? Even if so, why do you think China can bully India into anything? Actually how is China is perceived to be bigger than India? Bigger in what aspect? Military? Would you agree America is stronger militarily than China now? If so, would you say America can influence China in South China sea. No, similar would be the case in 2050 between China and India.

Also btw, India and US together can effectively counter China in every sphere. Also world has more democracies, they would rather side with other democracies than an authoritarian state. Europe would definitely side India. Its only failed states who would side with China. So next time you talk about geo-politics, would appreciate if you look at broader perspective. Look at how China and Pakistan are perceived outside your countries and then rant.

Bha Ji,
Nobody is ignoring the aspect of economic importance and it enhances security - no question. But you need to understand that when countries start growing, their interests normally would collude - however, as they grow bigger and powerful their interests would come in conflict. Therefore, in the longer term time frame, India-China conflict would increase - and I am not saying war.

The rest of what you say is basically rhetorical - almost identical to "if aunty had balls, she would be an uncle". Alas that can't be.

 

[Tinu]

are yaara.. pakistaniyon ki aukat bhi kya hai..bahar jate hi terrorist bolte hain tum logon ko..aukat ki kya bath kar raha bhai.

Darte hein na yaar ...... tumhari tarha nahin ke Defence Minister ke kapre bhi utrwa lete hein. Pakistaniyon se darte hein ....... Hindustaniyon ke kapre bhi utar dete hein

Lage raho munna bhai

 

[Jade]

China playing a role via Pakistan in Indian Ocean seems farfetched. Indian Ocean is India’s back yard and it has a pivotal role to play. Its security depends on its presence in Indian Ocean

 

[NALANDA]

Tinu - making an attempt to address your points....

Nalanda Bhai,
In today's interdependent world, one has to lean on others to seek support because of economic and political interdependency.

Taking support is one thing but to expect them to be part of their own decline is other. In today's interdependent world, no country will coem to aid of others in a war unless it is the untmost necessity....if they do, it will risk them so much economically that they will only advise to reconcile etc etc

This is a reality. You guys leaned towards Americans and declared China as your No 1 enemy.

I have read this comment many times.....just want to clarify that we see China as threat and want to have enough resource to deal with China BUT CHINA by no means is our enemy. We are infact trying to build good relationships with them, insahallah , we are confident that China will be our largest trading partner in years to come. China has started investing in India and we expect lot of JVs with them. Our economic bonding will grow so strong in days to come that life without each other will be like living without your girl-friend.....You guys largely consider diplomacy inferior being a nation ruled by army, but in India, Bureaucrats rules and they are the best brains out of mad competitions and are not trained like an army man to "use less brain and just follow orders". So you will see relation with China improving drastically in coming years as we desire it....we will not invest too much brain in improving relations with Pakistan...

You did that for economic reason thinking that others are fools. Your military deployment defies the No 1 enemy theory for China as much much less forces are deployed against China and about 80 percent are deployed against Pakistan.

Himalays protect us unlike the plains which surround our borders with Pakistan and hence need not deploy forces at China border. China, unlike , Paksitan also does not declare a thousand year war with us . China is largely peaceful and is focussing on development with an eye to become USA , the way are trying to develop........while Paksitan is a mess and willl be a miss in the forseeable future ....so force deployment has been done taking everything into an account. We are building our Navy as we see time running very fast and we need to make the Ocean what it is ..i.e. Indian Ocean.

Now, Pakistan has good relations with China and with the US and the West as well despite the ups and downs, which happens in such relations between countries when high stake games are being played. But all are straining to keep the relations better. Because we are currently in the eye of a storm, this does not mean it will remain as such forever. We will rise and because we are a relatively smaller country, we will be able to rebuild rather quickly than the Indian who would take much longer to improve - After all its indeed very very difficult to feed 800 million hungry, homeless and undernourished teeming crowd, despite strong armed forces, which as explained above by this guy Ticker would be unusable.

This is what has been brainwashed to you. You have made 50% population hungry, homeless and undernourished .....while we have started compalining that there are no workers willing to work at even increased wages. I pay INR7K to my domestic maid and 12k to my driver and still worry if they will leave me and pick up soem other assignment. Some simple arithemetic will give you a different picture....try googling...what India will be in 10 years at the current rate of growth.....Try to figure this difference -Our nation has the Army vs Your army has the nation- and unfdrestand that Indian armed forces strength is oly a derivative of Indian economic strength..........you can continue to harp on poverty while our poor start responding to your queries directly using their own laptop sitting in an AC room....I am one of the poor....

However, we don't need China to fight our wars - that we have the capability and intent to fight - AND WE WILL. Therefore please shed away this funny thinking that because Pakistan's and Chinese interests are similar we will ask the Chinese to fight for us.

You can not fight any war unless some one agrees to underwrite the expenses.....your defence minsiter recently acknowledge this....but yes you can as a nation, decide to go for suicide missions, killing self and surrounding, like your citizens have been doing. Please, don;t call this war. And yes you can put a gun to your head and demand to be fed, clothed etc...


anyway good-night..

 

[great]

Bha Ji,
Nobody is ignoring the aspect of economic importance and it enhances security - no question. But you need to understand that when countries start growing, their interests normally would collude - however, as they grow bigger and powerful their interests would come in conflict. Therefore, in the longer term time frame, India-China conflict would increase - and I am not saying war.

The rest of what you say is basically rhetorical - almost identical to "if aunty had balls, she would be an uncle". Alas that can't be.

We'll see about that. Alas you don't have any say in it. Its between India and China. Your assumption has no bearing in this situation. Its because you are an outsider to this issue. If both of them want peace and even more prosperity they would rather cooperate than fight. IMO they would cooperate because stakes are too high. Anyways lets see how it all turns out either constructively or destructively like you propose. In either case Pakistan is a minnow to have any bearing.

 

[Tinu]

China playing a role via Pakistan in Indian Ocean seems farfetched. Indian Ocean is India’s back yard and it has a pivotal role to play. Its security depends on its presence in Indian Ocean

China, Pakistan and the whole world does not agree with you as Pakistan does provide China access into Indian Ocean. And surely most of the world would agree with you that for India's security needs her presence in Indian Ocean is acceptable. But sir, if Indian Ocean is India's backyard, India does have a protruding and tempting behind - and I hope the security is not needed to secure the tempting behind. Please dont mind me saying this, I couldn't help it.

 

[Jade]

Bha Ji,
Nobody is ignoring the aspect of economic importance and it enhances security - no question. But you need to understand that when countries start growing, their interests normally would collude - however, as they grow bigger and powerful their interests would come in conflict. Therefore, in the longer term time frame, India-China conflict would increase - and I am not saying war.

The rest of what you say is basically rhetorical - almost identical to "if aunty had balls, she would be an uncle". Alas that can't be.

I agree with you first part that when two countries such as India and China grow thier interests collude; however, I will disgree with your second statement. When interests collude, the countries in question form informal boundries, and they make sure that the boundries are not crossed

 

[Jade]

China, Pakistan and the whole world does not agree with you as Pakistan does provide China access into Indian Ocean. And surely most of the world would agree with you that for India's security needs her presence in Indian Ocean is acceptable. But sir, if Indian Ocean is India's backyard, India does have a protruding and tempting behind - and I hope the security is not needed to secure the tempting behind. Please dont mind me saying this, I couldn't help it.

Pakistan can provide China with access, but first, the access will be limited mainly because China’s inability to have direct control over its assets, second, Pakistan geographically is far inside from the main Indian Ocean rim. It has to traverse the Arabian Sea to reach the Indian Ocean

 

[Tinu]

Good night gentlemen .... see ya tomorrow