Indian Ocean Peaceful Geo-Political Pivot Or Contentious Source of Hedging

[Arunpillai]

Your information regarding these organisation are wrong.. As tshering pointd out only ULFA and NCNM are secessionist.. Rest are just splinter groups. Some groups i haven't really heard ever. Some are asking for extending their state limits.Man, you have gone through some painstaking work to compile all these names.. Other than that in J&K there r som secessionist groups..

 

[Tinu]

Your information regarding these organisation are wrong.. As tshering pointd out only ULFA and NCNM are secessionist.. Rest are just splinter groups. Some groups i haven't really heard ever. Some are asking for extending their state limits.Man, you have gone through some painstaking work to compile all these names.. Other than that in J&K there r som secessionist groups..

Sir,
Get yourself educated about your own country. It is easier to criticize others. However, when you see the muck in the mirror it always surprises. This list is correct and this is true Shining India.

 

[Arunpillai]

In my opinion, indian ocean will become india's ocean in the near future.. There is presence of foreign navies in indian ocean like American and British but they are not antagonistic to indian interests nor is there a conflict of interest.. As for blocking international sea lanes, why in world would we do such a thing when it would be deemed as war? Indian navy is positioning itself as a regional power that polices the indian ocean.. As for blocking Pakistan in a war scenario i think its fairly agreed upon that indian navy would be successful in that..

 

[Arunpillai]

Sir,
Get yourself educated about your own country. It is easier to criticize others. However, when you see the muck in the mirror it always surprises. This list is correct and this is true Shining India.

oh. I'm well aware of the ground realities. I would like to point out to you that india being a democracy and a free country anyone and everyone can form a group or organisation that calls for separatism.. Most of these organisations may exist, but only in the fringes and do not enjoy any level of support within local society.. Its difficult to carry forward every one happily in a democracy when the culture language race religion changes every ten km.. Some people are bound to feel frustrated.. Unlike you we did'nt have the unifying factor of Islam.. But then still, look at you.

 

[Tinu]

In my opinion, indian ocean will become india's ocean in the near future.. There is presence of foreign navies in indian ocean like American and British but they are not antagonistic to indian interests nor is there a conflict of interest.. As for blocking international sea lanes, why in world would we do such a thing when it would be deemed as war? Indian navy is positioning itself as a regional power that polices the indian ocean.. As for blocking Pakistan in a war scenario i think its fairly agreed upon that Indian navy would be successful in that..

Sir, at this stage there are US led coalition forces policing the Indian Ocean areas and a force has also been created to counter terror. But pray, tell us what would policing by Indian Navy in Indian Ocean mean to you. Unless you understand the tasks and implications such statements are mere rhetoric and nothing more.

Blockade of Pakistan would result in immediate nuclear response by Pakistan as it is Pakistan's declared nuclear threshold. Secondly, Ballistic Missiles are being developed which can accurately strike and destroy ocean fearing big naval ships. So blocking Pakistanis ports is a very risky manoeuvre and under the current and future environment, this probably is not possible. And best of all, in future when the Pakistani ports also support Chinese trade, China would take it as an attack and blockade of China and would confront India head-on. Also these ports are needed by Americans. So as I said before, if aunty had balls she would be an uncle - alas she is not.

 

[Tinu]

oh. I'm well aware of the ground realities. I would like to point out to you that india being a democracy and a free country anyone and everyone can form a group or organisation that calls for separatism.. Most of these organisations may exist, but only in the fringes and do not enjoy any level of support within local society.. Its difficult to carry forward every one happily in a democracy when the culture language race religion changes every ten km.. Some people are bound to feel frustrated.. Unlike you we did'nt have the unifying factor of Islam.. But then still, look at you.

Sir,
That is why when you guys say that there is unity in diversity - it in in-fact is break-up due to diversity. There is nothing being on fringes when these are armed groups ready to kill - and this is not democracy, this is anarchy.

 

[Arunpillai]

Sir, at this stage there are US led coalition forces policing the Indian Ocean areas and a force has also been created to counter terror. But pray, tell us what would policing by Indian Navy in Indian Ocean mean to you. Unless you understand the tasks and implications such statements are mere rhetoric and nothing more.

Blockade of Pakistan would result in immediate nuclear response by Pakistan as it is Pakistan's declared nuclear threshold. Secondly, Ballistic Missiles are being developed which can accurately strike and destroy ocean fearing big naval ships. So blocking Pakistanis ports is a very risky manoeuvre and under the current and future environment, this probably is not possible. And best of all, in future when the Pakistani ports also support Chinese trade, China would take it as an attack and blockade of China and would confront India head-on. Also these ports are needed by Americans. So as I said before, if aunty had balls she would be an uncle - alas she is not.

sir,
my comments about blocking of pakistani ports were a war time scenario.. Please refer back. That is in case war breaks out between india and pakistan.. Of course if war breaks out it'll be soon nuclear.. India'd be daft to block pakistan in peace times.. How could you ever assume so.. Also Chinese coming to your aid because of naval blockade in war scenario is a bit far fetched.. You should know that China is not foolish. It will only engage India if it is sure of absolute victory.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

sir,
my comments about blocking of pakistani ports were a war time scenario.. Please refer back. That is in case war breaks out between india and pakistan.. Of course if war breaks out it'll be soon nuclear.. India'd be daft to block pakistan in peace times.. How could you ever assume so.. Also Chinese coming to your aid because of naval blockade in war scenario is a bit far fetched.. You should know that China is not foolish. It will only engage India if it is sure of absolute victory.

How else do you think we will react if you blockade Gwadar port? It's one of our most vital arteries.

Nehru made the mistake of biting into China, and believing that we would not strike back to protect our interests.

 

[Arunpillai]

Sir,
That is why when you guys say that there is unity in diversity - it in in-fact is break-up due to diversity. There is nothing being on fringes when these are armed groups ready to kill - and this is not democracy, this is anarchy.

no no no. Most of these groups are not secessionist in nature and most are not armed too.. Besides small flare up dont really matter. You dont understand the way india functions.. India is too large and unwieldy for any of this to matter..precisely why we never had army rule till now.. Army cannot manage india by itself. This has been our boon and our bane

 

[Arunpillai]

How else do you think we will react if you blockade Gwadar port? It's one of our most vital arteries.

Nehru made the mistake of biting into China, and believing that we would not strike back to protect our interests.

you'd be outta your mind to attack India over naval blockades.. I dont think Commies in Beijing are stupid.
61 war is old history pal. Besides that war only showed offensive operation by China and Defensive positioning by India..

 

[Tinu]

sir,
my comments about blocking of pakistani ports were a war time scenario.. Please refer back. That is in case war breaks out between india and pakistan.. Of course if war breaks out it'll be soon nuclear.. India'd be daft to block pakistan in peace times.. How could you ever assume so.. Also Chinese coming to your aid because of naval blockade in war scenario is a bit far fetched.. You should know that China is not foolish. It will only engage India if it is sure of absolute victory.

It is declared Indian stance that their offensive efforts would remain below Pakistan's nuclear thresholds. And denying a naval blockade is Pakistan's declared nuclear threshold, I don't think it would be attempted. In Western China about 300 million people live and these would be supported through Pakistani ports as the development reaches Western China - the pace of development has considerably picked up.. If India blocks Western China's only access to the sea, who would get hurt - China. Would the Chinese remain quite - I don't think so. In my opinion they would respond aggressively.

 

[Tinu]

no no no. Most of these groups are not secessionist in nature and most are not armed too.. Besides small flare up dont really matter. You dont understand the way india functions.. India is too large and unwieldy for any of this to matter..precisely why we never had army rule till now.. Army cannot manage india by itself. This has been our boon and our bane

Sir, you may be surprised how much I know about India. I disagree with your opinion.

 

[kawaraj]

How else do you think we will react if you blockade Gwadar port? It's one of our most vital arteries.

Nehru made the mistake of biting into China, and believing that we would not strike back to protect our interests.

People tend to constantly make the same mistake.

If India dare to blockade Gwadar, they will be doomed not as the senario as 1962 war. India as a nation will slip to an third class country, or several ones.

 

[Arunpillai]

It is declared Indian stance that their offensive efforts would remain below Pakistan's nuclear thresholds. And denying a naval blockade is Pakistan's declared nuclear threshold, I don't think it would be attempted. In Western China about 300 million people live and these would be supported through Pakistani ports as the development reaches Western China - the pace of development has considerably picked up.. If India blocks Western China's only access to the sea, who would get hurt - China. Would the Chinese remain quite - I don't think so. In my opinion they would respond aggressively.

sir,
i dont think a naval blockade would warrant a crossing of nuclear threshold..
Besides you seem to lay your country's future in the chance of chinese militarily intervening.. IMHO i dont think Chinese will interfere in a india pak war.. Firstly india, pak and china are nuclear powers.. Any war between such countries will invariably be a nuclear one. While you are only too willing to use nuclear weapons, india and China are not willing to see decades of our growth go up in smokes.. That too for a minor issue like destruction of shipping assets in a third country.
Secondly, china would be taking a big risk if it attacks india. If china wins it'd be sole super power, unchallenged authority in all of asia. But anything short of a complete win would shatter the myth of chinese military might and invincibility.. Adjacent nations like japan, phillipines, russia, vietnam, mongolia all of whom have border disputes with china will assert themselves. Then there is the internal dissension problem..
Thirdly is the America factor. We expect america to play the same role vis a vis china what russia played against america in 71. If china wins it'd directly threaten the very existence of america..

 

[Kikki]

How else do you think we will react if you blockade Gwadar port? It's one of our most vital arteries.

Nehru made the mistake of biting into China, and believing that we would not strike back to protect our interests.

Nothing is going to happen in Gwadar. Chinese are afraid to touch it beczuse of BLA.