Exclusive: U.S. moves to cut Huawei off from global chip suppliers

[casual]

China was remarkably fast in setting up 14nm fab with independent IP. Have no doubt China will laser focus on this area until it can match and superseded US technology in this area. I also don't think losing access to TSMC will be fatal to Huawei and other Chinese tech companies. 14nm is more then good enough for any chip besides the latest smartphone processors. Once China catches up on chip lithography tech, US will be in serious trouble. I'm going to predict China's 7nm process fabs coming online in a year.

 

[tower9]

You are infuriating! What do you think China is doing?!

Obviously the events of the last year has been a wake up call. It is kind of insane that China has been relatively lax all these years in building up its semiconductor independence though.

They already doing that, when this trade war started and they felt the pain they set up a $300B fund for Semi companies for R&D and facility upgrades. This war has some what been a blessing for China as well as it showed them their weakness, and they are working towards the China 2025 plan (which could extend 5-10 years more).

China has been pouring in countless billions for decades into semiconductor development with shitty results. Reason being, lax and corrupt managers of its semiconductor industries, preference for foreign parts and cooperation on the part of Chinese electronics makers for "cachet". This is actually one of the biggest differentiators between how China developed and how Japan developed its industry. The Japanese were proud to create a solid product and say this is "Made in Japan". While the Chinese loved to use foreign parts and say "This has an American chip, was designed by Italy and features a German camera". Chinese people have been White worshipers to the core. I guess now they are getting a wake up call.

 

[casual]

haha LMAO You sure love to put words into people's mouths. I'm a pretty calm, rational person. I don't analyze these issues through the prism of emotions but through logical lenses. In other words, I follow the school of realism when analyzing global politics. Neither the US nor China is the good or bad guy. Actually both countries are pretty shitty in the way they treat others. But why is the US acting like this? Because China is advancing very rapidly and if something drastic is not done, read turning the world upside down, China will soon surpass the US in a window of 5-8 years. That is no joke. The US knows this so it will throw everything it has against China to stop this from happening. As for China, it's goal is to keep its eyes on the prize, which is technological independence and superiority, economic development, etc. Getting bogged down in a conflict with the US will only distract it from its goal, and that is precisely the goal that American strategists are seeking.

If China was the global hegemon and the US the upstart, China would act in the same way.

US is protecting it's own economic interests. IC chips makes up 4% of US total exports. Also US companies rake in billions more in licencing fees on technology. Once the US loses that technology edge to China, it will have nothing other then oil and farm goods to export. And maybe planes once boeing gets it's act together.

 

[tower9]

US is protecting it's own economic interests. IC chips makes up 4% of US total exports. Also US companies rake in billions more in licencing fees on technology. Once the US loses that technology edge to China, it will have nothing other then oil and farm goods to export. And maybe planes once boeing gets it's act together.

More than just protecting an IC industry. China has the ability to take over the throne from the US. Do you know what happens when a hegemon loses primacy? If China surpasses the US in technology, in trade, and as the reserve currency. America will go from being the world's most powerful country with a high standard of living to a mediocre standard of living and having its options limited globally. No hegemonic power wants to lose that, that is almost like losing life itself.

For example, if you are a multi-billionaire, you KNOW you live a life of great prestige. You are accustomed to everyone scraping the ground to ingratiate themselves to you. You are accustomed to beautiful women wanting to be your companion and providing sex for you. You are accustomed to living in a grand Italianate mansion with a sparkling pool and rolling vistas of beautiful hills for you to enjoy while you sip on imported French champagne from Bordeaux, fucking your gorgeous supermodel wife in a palatial marble bathtub.

Now imagine that some guy was quietly making moves that would take all of this from you and you would be relegated to living in a 3 bed 2 bath suburban house driving a Toyota and begging Becky for a date? You would rather fucking KILL AND DIE than to lose it all. This is something that most people who are already living in a 3 bed house, driving a Toyota and begging basic bitches for a blowjob can't ever understand. LMAO

 

[Song Hong]

It was as if US cognitive elites can recapture the loss scientific territory.

In the cognitive war, it is more and more obvious that cognitive elites of US cannot match the East Asians especially Chinese. It has very much to do with the increasingly cognitive dystopia of Jews.

In the long run, China will still emerge as leaders of the technological and scientific war.

 

[kankan326]

China has been pouring in countless billions for decades into semiconductor development with shitty results. Reason being, lax and corrupt managers of its semiconductor industries, preference for foreign parts and cooperation on the part of Chinese electronics makers for "cachet". This is actually one of the biggest differentiators between how China developed and how Japan developed its industry. The Japanese were proud to create a solid product and say this is "Made in Japan". While the Chinese loved to use foreign parts and say "This has an American chip, was designed by Italy and features a German camera". Chinese people have been White worshipers to the core. I guess now they are getting a wake up call.

Wrong. China is the one that has strongest desire to be independent in every industry. Semiconductor industry is the most hostile industry for new comers. It's winner takes all game. Economically to say there shouldn't be a new comer. China's entering is already a big achievement.

The US is still far stronger than China right now. It can handle the blows. China is the one that's isolated.

US is rather weak in social structure. Americans are a group of people who can enjoy wealthy lives together but are not willing to sacrifice self interest to others.

Every country has a melting point temperature（disintegration）. China belongs to ones that have highest melting temperature. US has low melting point. I believe China would be the winer in the attrition game.

 

[tower9]

Wrong. China is the one that has strongest desire to be independent in every industry. Semiconductor industry is the most hostile industry for new comers. It's winner takes all game. Economically to say there shouldn't be a new comer. China's entering is already a big achievement.

US is rather weak in social structure. Americans are a group of people who can enjoy wealthy lives together but are not willing to sacrifice self interest to others.

Every country has a melting point temperature（disintegration）. China belongs to ones that have highest melting temperature. US has low melting point. I believe China would be the winer in the attrition game.

That's based on an erroneous assumption, that both countries would be sweltering under the same conditions. Wrong. The US has a powerful alliance system consisting of the most powerful economies in the world. It has bases right up to China's borders. When push comes to shove, the US can isolate and work to contain China. China can't do the opposite. So it is far from a fight of equals. China can resist and not capitulate, but it will end up like Iran or Russia, hollowed out, relatively poor but still independent. Of course there is the off chance that China can somehow leapfrog the US technologically fast enough that it can prevent this containment by offering enough technological and economic incentives to enough US traditional allies to prevent their full cooperation. But that would be difficult when things get extremely hostile as I expect they will.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

A very nice side benefit of this technological war of attrition between China and the US is that it will economically eviscerate Taiwan. Beyond TSMC, what does Taiwan have? Once China develops its technology to the bleeding edge and expands its semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan (and Korea, perhaps Japan as well although I can entertain the argument that it will be big enough to survive) will simply wither. Given its diminished value to the world and China's increased influence as a result of its more advanced technology it will face a more severe security environment as China would be both more capable and more willing to go the route of resuming the civil war.

You might find what I said about the renegade province and the other East Asian countries surprising, but consider what China is accomplishing given its stage of development. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are sprightly 3 cylinder engines, built pretty well, quick off the line and yet ecologically friendly. China is a monster of a quad-turboed V16 but with 12 of the cylinders busted. What terrifies everyone about Xi Jinping is that he's dead set on fixing those broken cylinders if it's the last thing he does. Once the repairs are finished, what hope do they have? What hope does anyone have against a fifth of humanity united under a technologically hyper-advanced and exquisitely governed superstate?

 

[antonius123]

That's based on an erroneous assumption, that both countries would be sweltering under the same conditions. Wrong. The US has a powerful alliance system consisting of the most powerful economies in the world. It has bases right up to China's borders. When push comes to shove, the US can isolate and work to contain China. China can't do the opposite. So it is far from a fight of equals. China can resist and not capitulate, but it will end up like Iran or Russia, hollowed out, relatively poor but still independent. Of course there is the off chance that China can somehow leapfrog the US technologically fast enough that it can prevent this containment by offering enough technological and economic incentives to enough US traditional allies to prevent their full cooperation. But that would be difficult when things get extremely hostile as I expect they will.

US, Japan, and Europe maybe in the same bandwagon to isolate China, but ex USSR countries, Pakistan, SEA, Latin America, Africa, even India may not.

If that happen US' effort to isolate China will end up with semi isolating US herself and weaken her companies to compete in Global market.

 

[tower9]

US, Japan, and Europe maybe in the same bandwagon to isolate China, but ex USSR countries, Pakistan, SEA, Latin America, Africa, even India may not.

If that happen US' effort to isolate China will end up with semi isolating US herself and weaken her companies to compete in Global market.

China needs trade and cooperation with at least SOME rich countries in order to continue to progress. Yes, it also works in China's interest to expand ties with the developing world, but if it is shut out of rich markets and access to their products, then its development will be severely hindered. The only way China can get out of that rut is to leapfrog all other nations technologically but if its economic engine is shut down, which will happen if it is shut out of trade with wealthy economies, then it will run out of fuel to push its technological progress.

 

[Mk-313]

US, Japan, and Europe maybe in the same bandwagon to isolate China, but ex USSR countries, Pakistan, SEA, Latin America, Africa, even India may not.

If that happen US' effort to isolate China will end up with semi isolating US herself and weaken her companies to compete in Global market.

Nope, bulk of China’s exports arent based on these 3rd world countries. Whether they stick to them or leave has very little effect

- u don’t wana lose ur biggest customer that’s spending $100 in ur store vs 5-6 little customer who may barely spend $20-$30 altogether.

US’ companies also don’t rely on these countries if the assumption that if they stick to China it means they reject US companies.

World economy currently sits at $80 trillion of which US, EU and Japan comprise around $45 trillion.
These 3 nations hold more than half the world gdp. Severing ties will definitely have severe effects on China

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The US has a powerful alliance system consisting of the most powerful economies in the world.

Ah, yes, the "allies." Would those be the same allies that told Obama to take a hike when he instructed them not to join the AIIB? Or the same allies that told Pompeo to follow Obama on his hike when he ordered them to cut ties with Huawei? Do you think these people do business with China out of the kindness of their hearts?

Sure, some pathetic countries like Australia which rely on America for survival will toe the line, but do you think countries like Germany, Japan, and Korea will join America's lunatic suicide pact?

Actually, I take that back. Australia will continue to dig up its country and sell it to China no matter what America says.

The only way China can get out of that rut is to leapfrog all other nations technologically but if its economic engine is shut down, which will happen if it is shut out of trade with wealthy economies, then it will run out of fuel to push its technological progress.

This is simply impossible. America itself would have a better outcome following Trump's advice to inject bleach that following his tantrum about cutting off trade with China.

 

[kankan326]

That's based on an erroneous assumption, that both countries would be sweltering under the same conditions. Wrong. The US has a powerful alliance system consisting of the most powerful economies in the world. It has bases right up to China's borders. When push comes to shove, the US can isolate and work to contain China. China can't do the opposite. So it is far from a fight of equals. China can resist and not capitulate, but it will end up like Iran or Russia, hollowed out, relatively poor but still independent. Of course there is the off chance that China can somehow leapfrog the US technologically fast enough that it can prevent this containment by offering enough technological and economic incentives to enough US traditional allies to prevent their full cooperation. But that would be difficult when things get extremely hostile as I expect they will.

When you have high hope to your allies, your allies will betray you. China is not Russia. European countries don't need US to protect them from China invasion. US allies will sit on the fence watching the fight, especially when US econmic power is weakened due to the trade war.

If China's products can not enter US and same to US, who will be the biggest winners? It's US's allies. Money and talents will leave US and flood to EU and Japan.

 

[antonius123]

China needs trade and cooperation with at least SOME rich countries in order to continue to progress. Yes, it also works in China's interest to expand ties with the developing world, but if it is shut out of rich markets and access to their products, then its development will be severely hindered. The only way China can get out of that rut is to leapfrog all other nations technologically but if its economic engine is shut down, which will happen if it is shut out of trade with wealthy economies, then it will run out of fuel to push its technological progress.

True. But likewise US, they need China huge market as well. China with 1.4 billion market will be about the same as Europe + US + Japan market combine.

Imagine when cisco, microsoft, intel loose 30% of their market share due to this isolation; their revenue for R&D will decrease significantly.

So if you say China will set back, same will US, Europe, and Japan

 

[tower9]

Ah, yes, the "allies." Would those be the same allies that told Obama to take a hike when he instructed them not to join the AIIB? Or the same allies that told Pompeo to follow Obama on his hike when he ordered them to cut ties with Huawei? Do you think these people do business with China out of the kindness of their hearts?

Sure, some pathetic countries like Australia which rely on America for survival will toe the line, but do you think countries like Germany, Japan, and Korea will join America's lunatic suicide pact?

Actually, I take that back. Australia will continue to dig up its country and sell it to China no matter what America says.

This is simply impossible. America itself would have a better outcome following Trump's advice to inject bleach that following his tantrum about cutting off trade with China.

I think in an event short of war, Europe and perhaps Japan would pay lip service to the US but not engage in truly hostile actions against China but in a near war footing which is where this is all leading to, all bets are off.