Def.pk op-ed: Mutual Blackmail, ETO for Afg, Pak and Ind

[Developereo]

You are very kind.

De nada.

All I am saying is, China will not appreciate very much to see the CAN's gas and oil ending up in the US and India. How they may want to play it later on, is altogether a different scenario.

And this ETO proposal does precisely that. In other words, it serves the interests of India and the US at China's expense.

And, like I wrote earlier, why on earth should Pakistan be party to such an arrangement? Especially since it doesn't provide any benefit to Pakistan that it can't get elsewhere.

PS. This proposal also serves Russia's interests. Russia wants the CAR resources targetted towards Asia, so it can have a monopoly on natural gas supplies to Europe.

 

[53fd]

The initial US goal in Afghanistan -- to defeat AQ -- was gradually overshadowed by the more ambitious goal of shaping regional geopolitics, i.e. installing India as a regional power to contain China and Pakistan. This befuddled goal setting, incidentally, is why the US estranged Pakistan and the reason why it is now seeking a face-saving exit from a failed mission.

I agree. The US perceives that Pakistan uses Afghanistan as its backyard, & is a destabilizing influence, which is why it has tried to increase India's influence in Afghanistan.

Since the US has acknowledged that the regional goal cannot be achieved militarily, the new track is to pry Pakistan away from the Chinese camp and into the Indo-US camp. The proposed "Economic Treaty Organization" would play into that strategy and Pakistan should not fall for it.

The US certainly does want Pakistan to steer away from the China camp, & that is the major objective of this ETO. But Pakistan is smart enough to know that China will not provide everything for them either, so instead of isolating itself from the US, Pakistan will play China & US off each other. China will provide Pakistan certain things, & whatever they cannot (or do not wish to) provide will be covered by the US.

 

[Developereo]

I agree. The US perceives that Pakistan uses Afghanistan as its backyard, & is a destabilizing influence, which is why it has tried to increase India's influence in Afghanistan.

I don't think the US cares what Pakistan does in Afghanistan. Their only concern with Afghanistan was AQ, regardless of who set them up. Other than the geopolitcial one, of course.

The US certainly does want Pakistan to steer away from the China camp, & that is the major objective of this ETO. But Pakistan is smart enough to know that China will not provide everything from them either, so instead of isolating itself from the US, Pakistan will play China & US off each other. China will provide Pakistan certain things, & whatever they cannot (or do not wish to) provide will be covered by the US.

Contrary to conventional wisdom on this forum, the Pakistan military is the only institution in Pakistan which has balanced the US-China barbell with any skill.

 

[President Camacho]

Looking at this proposal purely from a business point of view, what are the indispensable benefits provided to either party? In other words, what does India bring to the table that Pakistan can't get elsewhere, and vice versa?

As I see it, there is absolutely nothing that India adds to the equation that cannot be provided by substituting China or any other country. India provides a market. Big deal. There are plenty of markets, and China will suck up all the energy we can transit.

Now, looking at a map, Pakistan provides a huge benefit to India. India can go around Pakistan to get to the CARs, but that's the long way round and possibly using an underwater pipeline, all of which add costs. It will also involve cosying up to Iran, which will strain its relationship with the US.

So, bottom line, Pakistan is in no hurry to sign up. It should focus on strengthening ties with Iran, Afghanistan and China. Once India is sealed off from the CARs, and as its energy needs put pressure on the government, it will be much more amenable to dialog on Kashmir and other matters. Pakistan will be able to deal with India from a position of much greater leverage.

I will tell you about a very serious concern dwelling the mind of all involved international players: Iran's promises of such outstanding deliverance are viewed with strong doubts.

People like to say India opted out under the US pressure, but that is not so true. The fact is, Iran's promised supplies are not so guaranteed as they should be. And then, Iran kept changing the price.

These are the main reasons, along with a volatile Pakistan that made India opt out of the pipeline. And to check the feasibility all the parties, including a cordially invited China are just waiting and watching whether such a pipeline and the supplies inside can really be a long term reality.

Both the parties, China and India, would be more than happy to cooperate on the pipeline and make good use of it, there is no rivalry on that matter, unlike what you appear to suggest or desire. Both are simply waiting for the pipeline to reach Pakistan and check out its feasibility, after which, the oil and gas and even electricity can be passed through.

 

[Developereo]

Both the parties, China and India, would be more than happy to cooperate on the pipeline and make good use of it, there is no rivalry on that matter, unlike what you appear to suggest or desire. Both are simply waiting for the pipeline to reach Pakistan and check out its feasibility, after which, the oil and gas and even electricity can be passed through.

Either party, China or India, can suck up all the gas that Iran can dish out. Is that not the case? That would make them competitors for that resource. No wonder the Iranians are haggling over price.

 

[President Camacho]

Either party, China or India, can suck up all the gas that Iran can dish out. Is that not the case? That would make them competitors for that resource. No wonder the Iranians are haggling over price.

The price is inversely proportional to the size of the market. Supplying oil and gas to three countries through the same pipeline will be any time be cheaper and bring cost down, when compared to supplying the same oil and gas to just one or two countries.

Yes, both India and China are big markets for oil and gas, but they would never want to keep their eggs in the same basket, that too a shaky one, which is why they both are displaying aggressive diplomacy all over (to diversify their supplier base).

Secondly, with the World Bank, and the EU zone closing in on Iran (of course owing to the pressure from the US) and making it more and more difficult to carry out international transactions, we are yet to see how economic and safe it would be to get involved in such heavy, long-term deals with Iran.

After all, India and China both are still developing and relatively newer economies, a simple fluctuation in oil supplies, or even prices have in the past brought down their growth rate considerably. They would never want to take a chance unless they are 100% sure of a sustained deliverance.

The search for oil in CARs is an inevitability, and none of the countries would be left out. If India has the capability to extract it from South China Sea, I think it will make sure it gets an appreciable piece of the pie up there too, of course along with the US, China, and Russia doing the same.

 

[Developereo]

Yes, both India and China are big markets for oil and gas, but they would never want to keep their eggs in the same basket, that too a shaky one, which is why they both are displaying aggressive diplomacy all over (to diversify their supplier base).
[...]
The search for oil in CARs is an inevitability, and none of the countries would be left out.

Which brings me back to my earlier point: India needs this ETO far more than Pakistan does and, as India's energy appetite grows, the urgency will only get more acute. In effect, India's growth will work in Paksitan's favor.

 

[President Camacho]

Which brings me back to my earlier point: India needs this ETO far more than Pakistan does and, as India's energy appetite grows, the urgency will only get more acute. In effect, India's growth will work in Paksitan's favor.

Of course, contrary to what most say here, any growth is good for all, be it of Pakistan, or of India, or of China. However, it is not as if all the oil will have vaporized any time soon, and Pakistan would want India to join in any of the pipeline deals transiting through Pakistan's land because it will not only bring the cost lower, it will also fetch a lot of greenbacks to Pakistan in transit fee - That was the main reason why Pakistan wanted India to join the IPI in the first place.

When you talk about India's urgency for oil, it sounds as if Pakistan may try to blackmail India for oil supplies No one wants that man, not even Pakistan since it will neither favor India, nor Pakistan. As you said yourself - looking at the prospect with a business point of view - all the rivalries will be set aside and it will be pure business - mutually beneficial.

 

[53fd]

I will tell you about a very serious concern dwelling the mind of all involved international players: Iran's promises of such outstanding deliverance are viewed with strong doubts.

People like to say India opted out under the US pressure, but that is not so true. The fact is, Iran's promised supplies are not so guaranteed as they should be. And then, Iran kept changing the price.

These are the main reasons, along with a volatile Pakistan that made India opt out of the pipeline. And to check the feasibility all the parties, including a cordially invited China are just waiting and watching whether such a pipeline and the supplies inside can really be a long term reality.

Both the parties, China and India, would be more than happy to cooperate on the pipeline and make good use of it, there is no rivalry on that matter, unlike what you appear to suggest or desire. Both are simply waiting for the pipeline to reach Pakistan and check out its feasibility, after which, the oil and gas and even electricity can be passed through.

a) China & India will always be rivals. They are the world's 1st & 2nd largest countries (by population), & will always be competing with one another for natural resources & geopolitical strategic influences.

b) India opting out of the Iran pipeline has nothing to do with Pakistan. Pakistan has become a lot more stable than over a past few years, & it is getting better & better in that respect. In fact, there was a proposal of an underwater Iran-India gas pipeline that would bypass Pakistan, but that project never got started either.

 

[Developereo]

When you talk about India's urgency for oil, it sounds as if Pakistan may try to blackmail India for oil supplies No one wants that man, not even Pakistan since it will neither favor India, nor Pakistan. As you said yourself - looking at the prospect with a business point of view - all the rivalries will be set aside and it will be pure business - mutually beneficial.

Blackmail is an emotive word. It implies threat to do harm. I simply meant that Pakistan can get more concessions from India if it waits a while and lets Indian need for CAR resources get more urgent.

 

[President Camacho]

Blackmail is an emotive word. It implies threat to do harm. I simply meant that Pakistan can get more concessions from India if it waits a while and lets Indian need for CAR resources get more urgent.

A wait for the need to grow to ask for concessions... that sounds a bit too far fetched. In the process, Pakistan will be delaying its own transit fee, while CAR's oil will always be more of an option than an urgency for India. In the end, India will have to see whether it is paying more than it pays elsewhere to get oil through Pakistan. If that is the case, then why would India even want to join the pipeline? Such a scenario will only rob Pakistan of its prospective revenues.

Edit (To your concern in the deleted part lol):

China would rather welcome a pipeline through India to China. An IPIC would be any time more favorable to China than an IPC, simply because it will be cost effective to India and China, and Pakistan getting greater revenues.

 

[happycanuck]

I like what is said. But I think China's interests also needs to be addressed

Let China come forward and state their interest in the media. In my opinion their interest lies in keeping neighbours fighting each other who are joined at hip. We two neighbours who have more in common with each other than with China. It is up to leadership of Pakistan to realize the potential of peaceful living with your neighbours. Let us not get carried away with religious rhetorics from the fanatics and concentrate on national development in the region.

 

[indushek]

A wait for the need to grow to ask for concessions... that sounds a bit too far fetched. In the process, Pakistan will be delaying its own transit fee, while CAR's oil will always be more of an option than an urgency for India. In the end, India will have to see whether it is paying more than it pays elsewhere to get oil through Pakistan. If that is the case, then why would India even want to join the pipeline? Such a scenario will only rob Pakistan of its prospective revenues.

Edit (To your concern in the deleted part lol):

China would rather welcome a pipeline through India to China. An IPIC would be any time more favorable to China than an IPC, simply because it will be cost effective to India and China, and Pakistan getting greater revenues.

Is this really possible i mean, why would the Chinese risk having their oil supply though India?? The irritations between us are more than evident to everybody!!!

 

[Mech]

Is this really possible i mean, why would the Chinese risk having their oil supply though India?? The irritations between us are more than evident to everybody!!!

No. Not possible.

 

[indushek]

No. Not possible.

I have the same thought and my reason is that why would Chinese help India in quenching its energy thirst, and put themselves at risk in future too.