Def.pk op-ed: Mutual Blackmail, ETO for Afg, Pak and Ind
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VCheng
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cyphercide
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Forget that,The compulsions are real enough;
US likely to persuade Pakistan to abandon Iran gas pipeline project – The Express Tribune
President Camacho
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The main investment of China is in Aynak Copper Mines in Afghanistan where it has already invested billions. The investment, that began in 2007 came with the idea that everything will be clear by 2011, and it will all be very quiet, given the efforts of the US, and the mine will start producing copper by end of 2011. Yet, contrary to the statements of Chinese officials, investment is getting reduced and the final date of production is nowhere in sight.
China is counting on a democratic government in post 2012 Afghanistan, and for such a set up China is hoping for the US's objectives to complete asap so that a more peaceful Afghanistan is left for further investment. However, at the same time, China had decided not to go for any other investment until all the spats and imbroglio on part of US and Pakistan and Afghanistan clear up to make way for greater business.
In spite of such a huge investment in one of the largest mines in the world, China is keeping quiet on the matter, simply because it will not be so economic for China as to handle all the security issues and terror threats all along while mining the mines.
I suppose one of the reasons for China to come out of Gwadar was incessant attacks on the Chinese engineers too, right?
President I think the chinese are the unknown package. Some sort of role or accomodation has to be made for them. The reason I say the chinese although allies of pakistan are known to play their cards close to their chest. I mean I was looking at a thread a few days ago and there were guesses varing between 500 to 3500 nuke for China says it all. I personally believe that the chinese will challenge the americans but are biding their time. The batton change will occur between america and china but when and if it will be done peacefully is the question. As far as gwador goes I believe that a chinese navel base in due course is inevitable however the chinese do not want to challenge america openly just yet
President Camacho
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See, the role is there for everyone.
In fact, any major change in any country directly or indirectly affects all the countries, and more so the neighbors.
I am specifically talking about a role so major that goes on to decide US and India's level of influence in the region.
With so many participants, and then the role played by aid organizations (not even the US alone can help develop Afghanistan and provide a fluid and organized system in that country for anything to work) I wouldn't count on China taking the baton, and the leadership from the US on that.
It will most likely turn into a coalition of aid and military support providers, with the US still in the lead. About aid and military support both, I don't think China is ready to take such a role. Unless of course, the Afghan government promises to open all the oil fields and rest of the mines to none but the Chinese.
Still for quite a while under the US influence, and India crying hoarse, what are the chances of that?
^^^^ India should and will have a voice and a limited role but america I dont see how in the long term it can, we accept china iran and pakistan must have roles. America wants to exlude iran, contain china and bully or bribepakistan I dont think americans are practical and realists. You cant put a square into a circle esp when their financial muscle is on the wane. The OP said money would be contributed by america? how when america has to borrow from china. Will China provide money to americans to contain china?
How much of a role india plays will depend on pak india ability to move forward on diffusing tensions
How much of a role india plays will depend on pak india ability to move forward on diffusing tensions
My understanding is that iranian leg has already started:
Uskowi on Iran -
I think there are various offers of finance offers from a number of sources including china and russia for the pakistani leg
President Camacho
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It is the same question that we are all trying to find an answer to in this thread - How the countries will have to engage themselves in a manner, that none feels threatened and yet allows for the other to make for a mutually beneficial situation.
The wars, no matter how costly, if won by the aggressor, are bound to shoot up economic growth at home.
In this one, the US will not let go of its role in Afghanistan completely. Especially after it has paid such a big price. The reward will be reaped by the industry oriented Republicans, that is, if they come to power in the next elections.
And with the presence of both the competing nations, China and the US, will make sure of equal responsibilities on part of all the participating nations, and subsequently, equal sharing of the resources. Any sort of imbalance, be it in favor of Pakistan + China or US + India in the region will simply defeat the purposes and might make it even worse than it has been before.
The problem is america and iran. Iran part of pipeline is done, pakistanis are confirming that within 2 years they will be linked. Once this is a reality I think both iran and pakistan feel india will join because the deal signed in march april this year provided for india to join. Although international commentators said india did not join cos of american pressure im not so sure cos indian govt official line was they couldnt agree on price with iran. So once iran pak part is complete I think if iranians offer a good deal india will bite. Iran will have to give a good price to encourage india. As we know india isnt pakistan and have a more mature leadership who will do whats best for india not america, if the price is right China will join too. Iran will use the fact they can sell to china and or india. china and india will drive price down cos of iranian sanctions interesting times eh
---------- Post added at 10:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:36 PM ----------
america in the current climate has little to offer other than force. force has limited use. It has not delivered what they want in afghanistan in 10 years
President Camacho
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The pipeline part may become what you postulate here. It is very much possible that Indian leadership is playing wait and watch on the pipeline development.
Can you please elaborate on how the pipeline from Iran to Pakistan, and later on possibly to India, will help mellow down the situation in Afghanistan to make it more conducive for trade and development?
Quick one mate I have to go will discuss more tom. My take on it is if we start with ipi and its in india and pakistan interest cos they both benefit financial this will be one of the first things that draws us closer. This is a start not the end product. Once we have ties like this then pot wars will recede as we both lose in the event of war etc. I think afghanistan tapi etc will only happen when we are further down the line,
Developereo
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Precisely. America's interests dictate a divide-and-conquer approach which, as El Presidente acknowledges, also aligns with India's objectives in the region.
Hence the natural alliance between India and the US, which Pakistan should steer clear of.
In other words, I agree with you.
Thank you. You are one of the few Indians who honestly acknowledges the reality of India's geopolitical ambitions.
The only other thing I would add to your "keep China distracted" above is "emasculate Pakistan's army and nuclear deterrant". That objective, too, is shared by the US and India. Hence any overtures of peace from India are suspect.
I really wish the name were Stephanie Walt.
In keeping its eye on China, India is trying to rapidly expand its naval prowess in the region. It will never allow for the presence of any other Navy right in its lap - Arabian Ocean facing Mumbai.
The only problem will come from China though... that country gets 80% of its oil from the gulf region, and the gulf is still somewhat under the strong influence of the US, something not very friendly to China. In case of any troubled times in the Pacific, the US may quickly wield its influence in gulf to restrict the oil supplies, while India will keep getting fed by the oil coming down from the CANs.
China will never want to be in a situation where its supplies can be affected by American influence.
As you acknowledge, India and the US share a common goal to keep an "eye on China". Why would China feel any more comfortable about Indian navy patrolling its oil route than American navy doing the same?
And, more importantly, why should Pakistan be party to an alliance whose aim, albeit unstated, is to "contain China"?
President Camacho
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You are very kind.
I suppose you mean the Arabian Sea when you are speaking of the oil route. Well, if any military ship ventures in that area, it will be of very big concern to India. And I do not understand why China would want to come there, when it can access the Caspian oil through land routes.
When I talked about China's vulnerability, I meant its position as a consumer to fewer oil suppliers than it should afford. China is the biggest oil consumer in the world, and supplies to China come from nations that are heavily under the influence of the US.
The fluctuations in oil prices in the recent past appeared very scary for the Chinese growth, and they would not want this dependence to last for too long.
All I am saying is, China will not appreciate very much to see the CAN's gas and oil ending up in the US and India. How they may want to play it later on, is altogether a different scenario.
Developereo
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Looking at this proposal purely from a business point of view, what are the indispensable benefits provided to either party? In other words, what does India bring to the table that Pakistan can't get elsewhere, and vice versa?
As I see it, there is absolutely nothing that India adds to the equation that cannot be provided by substituting China or any other country. India provides a market. Big deal. There are plenty of markets, and China will suck up all the energy we can transit.
Now, looking at a map, Pakistan provides a huge benefit to India. India can go around Pakistan to get to the CARs, but that's the long way round and possibly using an underwater pipeline, all of which add costs. It will also involve cosying up to Iran, which will strain its relationship with the US.
So, bottom line, Pakistan is in no hurry to sign up. It should focus on strengthening ties with Iran, Afghanistan and China. Once India is sealed off from the CARs, and as its energy needs put pressure on the government, it will be much more amenable to dialog on Kashmir and other matters. Pakistan will be able to deal with India from a position of much greater leverage.
As I see it, there is absolutely nothing that India adds to the equation that cannot be provided by substituting China or any other country. India provides a market. Big deal. There are plenty of markets, and China will suck up all the energy we can transit.
Now, looking at a map, Pakistan provides a huge benefit to India. India can go around Pakistan to get to the CARs, but that's the long way round and possibly using an underwater pipeline, all of which add costs. It will also involve cosying up to Iran, which will strain its relationship with the US.
So, bottom line, Pakistan is in no hurry to sign up. It should focus on strengthening ties with Iran, Afghanistan and China. Once India is sealed off from the CARs, and as its energy needs put pressure on the government, it will be much more amenable to dialog on Kashmir and other matters. Pakistan will be able to deal with India from a position of much greater leverage.
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