Def.pk op-ed: Mutual Blackmail, ETO for Afg, Pak and Ind

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

India Pak doesn't have to be the same as US-Pak or US-India.

A "hopefully more pragmatic and hard nosed leadership" on both sides will likely realize what has not worked for several decades, see if more of the same has a chance of working in the future and change course if the answer is in the negative.

Under Musharraf (of all people, architect of kargil, hardliner on India, SSG commando and all), the relations were the best in decades. That points to the possibilities.

Our issues are not as intractable as they seem at the surface. Nothing compared to the millions and millions killed by the French and Germans and other Europeans.

The template is there before us.

Ah, so by 'assertive leadership' you don't mean to suggest 'confrontational, threatening and hostile', but rather a leadership willing to do what is necessary, even if not necessarily a 'populist' position domestically?

 

[President Camacho]

Take your time... Im hungry right now.. feel like a large cheese and pepperoni pizza.. if not for my now well developed tire stack.

Senor Camacho.. Why do we consider the US the most effective middleman?

I think for a number of reasons, but let me focus on the three basic ones that may raise grave concerns in the neighborhood.

The first and foremost would be, unlike any other, the US is interested, and capable - because of its influence on both the countries - India and Pakistan.

Second reason is that the US is not a close ally of either of them. Both, India and Pakistan are not so trusting of the US, and such distrust will make sure that none of the countries allow for the US to take undue advantage of the situation, and help keep the US's activities under control.

Third reason is that the US too has its own stake in the area, especially concerning the oil in CAN, but may also strongly desire the containment of Iran - that would be something we will need to watch out for and sort it out before it even takes place. That should not be very difficult in these times when the US economy will not allow for it to undertake wars after wars.

When we combine all these interests of the US, along with its own vulnerability and dependence on the participating nations in the region, it appears to be the best middleman between the involved countries. However, while it may be very interested in the area, betterment of diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan may not be what it really desires. So that's a part these three countries will have to figure out (US, Pakistan, India).

 

[Paan Singh]

It is not the just the ruling elite of India and Pakistan, it is the Military forces of the nations as well.
For all its hue and cry over rising up to challenge the Chinese military.. India still maintains a large presence on its western border. Which would be understandable considering the history of misadventures by the Pakistan Army.
However, the PA uses this as an excuse for its massive budget and clout. The establishment of Pakistan lives on threats to Pakistan, otherwise it has no possible bogeyman to exercise to generate support for itself from the masses.

On the other side of the border, most of the Indian military build up is still directed towards its western border. A buildup that is fueled for the most part by the "threat" of terror attacks originating from Pakistan and the need to Punish Pakistan for the same.
Will these powers and their civilian support structure be ready to even consider giving up such an effective lobby for their massive budgets?
I do see a glimmer of hope when it comes to the show of objective professionalism and the overt display of desiring peace by some elements of the Indian military. But can one expect the same from the Pakistan Army? Considering their stance has been fairly rigid throughout...
did find the Mayor of Kabul's interview given to a Pakistani news channel rather comforting and logical.. perhaps for all his ineffective capacity in controlling Afghanistan.. he does have a point.
India CANNOT be ignored in Afghanistan, it is not a regional player but a global player now.I would go far as saying that for Pakistan to be stable it will need an Indian input.. be it constructive, or perhaps destructive. Either way, India's circle of influence extends far beyond Pakistan.
To borrow from mathematics..
Pakistan's establishment must realize that Afghanistan is not a subset of Pakistan, rather A intersection P is what must be considered..
India too must consider that whatever set that results in its interests in Afghanistan has an intersection with Pakistan's interests and therefore it must understand and request co-operation by Pakistan.

The US must also consider that it is no longer the superset as was defined in the cold wars. And must change its engagement policies accordingly. It needs to leave Afghanistan fast, and for all its misgivings with Pakistan.. It has to realize that compared to any other nation in the region, Pakistan will always have the largest role to play in a Post US Afghanistan and deserves the highest priority and veto when a solution for Afghanistan is determined.

Finally, The set in discussion that is Afghanistan.. must have all its players and not just a few selected ethnic groups or leaders when it comes to deciding a future for the nation.

kitni achi post likhta hai yaar
bas yaar infraction naa dia kar..mera mood kharab ho jata hai

 

[SQ8]

But senor, The US's interests in the region are not exclusive to the region.
Apart from Iran, its containment policy of China will also come into effect.
Which will incite China to use its influence on Pakistan to derail and object to any US move that results in Chinese isolation from a solution in Afghanistan. The US may be the instigator of such a move, but in my view the Chinese have a lot larger role to play when it comes to the solution in Afghanistan.
I hate to bring such an example up, But the current behavior of the region with Afghanistan is like vultures finding a fat corpse of a once ferocious predator.

 

[Vimana]

It's intresting to note that China has won major deals in Afghanistan already and is bidding for more, I hope India does not fall behind in this field.

 

[President Camacho]

It is not the just the ruling elite of India and Pakistan, it is the Military forces of the nations as well.
For all its hue and cry over rising up to challenge the Chinese military.. India still maintains a large presence on its western border. Which would be understandable considering the history of misadventures by the Pakistan Army.
However, the PA uses this as an excuse for its massive budget and clout. The establishment of Pakistan lives on threats to Pakistan, otherwise it has no possible bogeyman to exercise to generate support for itself from the masses.

On the other side of the border, most of the Indian military build up is still directed towards its western border. A buildup that is fueled for the most part by the "threat" of terror attacks originating from Pakistan and the need to Punish Pakistan for the same.
Will these powers and their civilian support structure be ready to even consider giving up such an effective lobby for their massive budgets?
I do see a glimmer of hope when it comes to the show of objective professionalism and the overt display of desiring peace by some elements of the Indian military. But can one expect the same from the Pakistan Army? Considering their stance has been fairly rigid throughout...
did find the Mayor of Kabul's interview given to a Pakistani news channel rather comforting and logical.. perhaps for all his ineffective capacity in controlling Afghanistan.. he does have a point.
India CANNOT be ignored in Afghanistan, it is not a regional player but a global player now.I would go far as saying that for Pakistan to be stable it will need an Indian input.. be it constructive, or perhaps destructive. Either way, India's circle of influence extends far beyond Pakistan.
To borrow from mathematics..
Pakistan's establishment must realize that Afghanistan is not a subset of Pakistan, rather A intersection P is what must be considered..
India too must consider that whatever set that results in its interests in Afghanistan has an intersection with Pakistan's interests and therefore it must understand and request co-operation by Pakistan.

The US must also consider that it is no longer the superset as was defined in the cold wars. And must change its engagement policies accordingly. It needs to leave Afghanistan fast, and for all its misgivings with Pakistan.. It has to realize that compared to any other nation in the region, Pakistan will always have the largest role to play in a Post US Afghanistan and deserves the highest priority and veto when a solution for Afghanistan is determined.

Finally, The set in discussion that is Afghanistan.. must have all its players and not just a few selected ethnic groups or leaders when it comes to deciding a future for the nation.

That's a very realistic post, thank you for that.

However, when I take a look at the domestic media, here in India, it appears to be playing the same role of PA in Pakistan - when it comes to fueling fear among the masses for its own benefit. And in a democracy, esp like India's where the percentage of gullible comprises the majority, the media plays a very strong role.

The first step on part of India would be to lower its tone on hostility, and talk about trade benefits with respect to Pakistan.

I cannot exactly pinpoint how the business houses of India, who have a great say in the politics, find war like situation beneficial to them. But for some reasons I am of the idea that the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce does play a great role in all that comes out of India's mouth with regard to Pakistan and the US.

 

[IND151]

You are absolutely right. So far, China has decided that its national interests are best served with Pakistan. That calculation can change and India will make the case that Pakistan is a liability hampering Indo-China normalization.

Our focus should be on attaining self-sufficiency so that Pakistan brings more than just its geographical location to China's table. In terms of improving our situation, I would put the focus on strengething ties with Iran rather than India. It's not that I have anything against India but, as long as Kashmir remains unresolved, we are just fooling ourselves that relations can be normalized.

An Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan nexus would yield far better results, both economically and security-wise. It will also put the definitive nail on the coffin as far as Indian involvement in Afghanistan is concerned.

but as long as India buys huge amount of oil from Iran , Iran Pakistan ties wont strengthen beyond a limit.

 

[SQ8]

That's a very realistic post, thank you for that.

However, when I take a look at the domestic media, here in India, it appears to be playing the same role of PA in Pakistan - when it comes to fueling fear among the masses for its own benefit. And in a democracy, esp like India's where the percentage of gullible comprises the majority, the media plays a very strong role.

The first step on part of India would be to lower its tone on hostility, and talk about trade benefits with respect to Pakistan.

I cannot exactly pinpoint how the business houses of India, who have a great say in the politics, find war like situation beneficial to them. But for some reasons I am of the idea that the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce does play a great role in all that comes out of India's mouth with regard to Pakistan and the US.

That media part is understandable, since theatrics that arouse emotions sell ratings.. and anger is the most easily aroused emotion. Even when there are peace "initiatives" taken by the media on both sides, they border on the extreme cheesy types.. almost soap opera like, which most people find a little repulsive.
Indian Media has greater influence over Afghanistan due to the appeal of Bollywood ,semi-nude women and everyday(NOT) heroes. Naturally, what sells as chicken soup to the fun side is a natural attraction for trust as well.
All Pakistan has seemingly "exported" to Afghanistan are intolerant , prejudiced Mullah's.

 

[Paan Singh]

That media part is understandable, since theatrics that arouse emotions sell ratings.. and anger is the most easily aroused emotion. Even when there are peace "initiatives" taken by the media on both sides, they border on the extreme cheesy types.. almost soap opera like, which most people find a little repulsive.
Indian Media has greater influence over Afghanistan due to the appeal of Bollywood ,semi-nude women and everyday(NOT) heroes. Naturally, what sells as chicken soup to the fun side is a natural attraction for trust as well.
All Pakistan has seemingly "exported" to Afghanistan are intolerant , prejudiced Mullah's.

why u mention every where bollywood as semi nude women??
aur kuch ni dikhta.

 

[SQ8]

why u mention every where bollywood as semi nude women??
aur kuch ni dikhta.

I mention what attracts the common man, especially in a society that has been suppressed by the Taliban for so long.. and yes, except movies in bollywood that are truly inspiring.. most include women in a skimpy dress dance as cherries on top of the ice cream.
This is not related to the topic, so I suggest you object elsewhere if you must. since you too could not find anything else to comment on this thread..
Aur kuch nahin dikhta??

 

[President Camacho]

But senor, The US's interests in the region are not exclusive to the region.
Apart from Iran, its containment policy of China will also come into effect.
Which will incite China to use its influence on Pakistan to derail and object to any US move that results in Chinese isolation from a solution in Afghanistan. The US may be the instigator of such a move, but in my view the Chinese have a lot larger role to play when it comes to the solution in Afghanistan.
I hate to bring such an example up, But the current behavior of the region with Afghanistan is like vultures finding a fat corpse of a once ferocious predator.

That is very true. I mean the US trying to contain China at the moment. That is the reason I talked about the distrusting nations keeping the US's presence at the minimal level that serves only to facilitate a peaceful trade like situation in the region, while allowing the US to take its share of oil through Arabian ocean, but only under the supervision of Indian Navy.

However, if we were to involve China into this quagmire, I wonder what would be its level of interest. What exactly would China gain by helping bring a long lasting peace that will result in India focusing more and more on its economy to close the gap with China. Also, if China were to extract oil from the CANs, then it may not really need a route through Pakistan or Afghanistan.

Even for oil coming from Iran to end up in China, Pakistan only serves as a shorter, yet not too secure a route for China.

Also, with the close brother like relations between China and Pakistan, both of which have unsolved bitter disputes with India on various grounds, how is India going to like it? I very much doubt India would be keen on having Pakistan and China both on the same table against it.

 

[lem34]

It is not the just the ruling elite of India and Pakistan, it is the Military forces of the nations as well.
For all its hue and cry over rising up to challenge the Chinese military.. India still maintains a large presence on its western border. Which would be understandable considering the history of misadventures by the Pakistan Army.
However, the PA uses this as an excuse for its massive budget and clout. The establishment of Pakistan lives on threats to Pakistan, otherwise it has no possible bogeyman to exercise to generate support for itself from the masses.

On the other side of the border, most of the Indian military build up is still directed towards its western border. A buildup that is fueled for the most part by the "threat" of terror attacks originating from Pakistan and the need to Punish Pakistan for the same.
Will these powers and their civilian support structure be ready to even consider giving up such an effective lobby for their massive budgets?
I do see a glimmer of hope when it comes to the show of objective professionalism and the overt display of desiring peace by some elements of the Indian military. But can one expect the same from the Pakistan Army? Considering their stance has been fairly rigid throughout...
did find the Mayor of Kabul's interview given to a Pakistani news channel rather comforting and logical.. perhaps for all his ineffective capacity in controlling Afghanistan.. he does have a point.
India CANNOT be ignored in Afghanistan, it is not a regional player but a global player now.I would go far as saying that for Pakistan to be stable it will need an Indian input.. be it constructive, or perhaps destructive. Either way, India's circle of influence extends far beyond Pakistan.
To borrow from mathematics..
Pakistan's establishment must realize that Afghanistan is not a subset of Pakistan, rather A intersection P is what must be considered..
India too must consider that whatever set that results in its interests in Afghanistan has an intersection with Pakistan's interests and therefore it must understand and request co-operation by Pakistan.

The US must also consider that it is no longer the superset as was defined in the cold wars. And must change its engagement policies accordingly. It needs to leave Afghanistan fast, and for all its misgivings with Pakistan.. It has to realize that compared to any other nation in the region, Pakistan will always have the largest role to play in a Post US Afghanistan and deserves the highest priority and veto when a solution for Afghanistan is determined.

Finally, The set in discussion that is Afghanistan.. must have all its players and not just a few selected ethnic groups or leaders when it comes to deciding a future for the nation.

1. I do not wish to comment on vested interest in India. But I must say that although far from perfect Pakistan Army is arguably the most united and one institution that is relatively strong compared to other institutions in Pakistan. For all its faults it has been instrumental in protecting Pakistan’s integrity. You say that the PA uses excuses for it massive budget. I think in our neighbourhood and the likes of aggressive neo colonial states like America we have no choice but to be supportive of the army. I live in the west and you can hardly say that I have been fed on a diet of PA propaganda. On the contrary I am fed a daily diet in western press of how evil PA and ISI is. Knowing how western propaganda works this in my opinion is the ultimate complement to PA and ISI. If our enemies say something is bad for us it is likely that it is good for us. America certainly is the enemy of not just Pakistan but all Muslim countries. I don’t care what Obama Cheng (lol) or Clinton says American actions around the world speak for themselves.
2. Your statements suggest that the establishment lives on threats as if they have created the threats. In my opinion the threats exist first and are not created by PA.
3. “You state India CANNOT be ignored in Afghanistan, it is not a regional player but a global player now. I would go far as saying that for Pakistan to be stable it will need an Indian input.. be it constructive, or perhaps destructive. Either way, India's circle of influence extends far beyond Pakistan.” To this I would say what part has India played in Afghanistan in the absence of encouragement of America in the past? Regional player maybe but global player? How? Since when? Since America needs cannon fodder or something to hold China down? I see self professed acknowledgements from Indians on this forum and western and Indian propaganda feeding us a daily diatribe of its super power designate to be. Frankly speaking I do not wish to knock India and will not list weaknesses in India because it would upset Indians but though India has done relatively well and has great potential it is some way of fulfilling its potential. In fact I don’t believe that India will fulfill its potential until it resolves border issues with China and Pakistan. The worst part of an inferiority complex manifests itself as a superiority complex. Think how China down plays its achievements. Real power does not need to trumpet its arrival.
4. You state To borrow from mathematics.. Pakistan's establishment must realize that Afghanistan is not a subset of Pakistan, It is not Pakistan’s fault that its location has strategic value, we are neighbours and are affected by whatever happens in Afghanistan. When Russians invaded Afghanistan it wasn’t India that had millions of refugees it was Pakistan that had the problem. We do not choose our location. If we had a choice we may let India have the refugees let India go and sort out Afghanistan. But sadly we don’t have that option
5. You state the US must also consider that it is no longer the superset as was defined in the cold wars. And must change its engagement policies accordingly. It needs to leave Afghanistan fast, and for all its misgivings with Pakistan.. It has to realize that compared to any other nation in the region, Pakistan will always have the largest role to play in a Post US Afghanistan and deserves the highest priority and veto when a solution for Afghanistan is determined. This somewhat contradicts your earlier assertion that India must be involved. On the one hand you want to give Pakistan a veto on the other hand you want India to play a role in Afghanistan. What if its not in Pakistan’s interest for India to be involved and Pakistan to use its veto?

 

[lem34]

As I said earlier this is an american/indian dream that aint coming into being any time soon. In fact I dont know why I am tempted to keep coming back to thread. Suppose its to see how much time we can spend discussing mission impossible? Or perhaps Im the only one that cant see the light. come on cheng take me to the light show me where Im wrong. Id love to see peace in our neighbourhood

 

[SQ8]

1. To avoid a lengthy debate on this subject in this thread.. You assume support for the Army the same as approval of all its actions. I do support the army, I do not support its leadership in all their decisions. Your perception of the US is yours, and I have mine. I do not consider the US an enemy of all muslims, just those that question its standards on many issues.

2. Who was part of the threat creation that is now blowing up our citizens? It was the generals of PA who led misadventures like Op Gibraltar, Kargil .. etc. A threat may exist.. but it doesn't blow up in your face until you wish to light a match. Again, not relevant as such to the thread so I would keep a lengthy discussion on this out of this particular thread.

3. A shock to the economy of Pakistan..even the dismemberment of Pakistan will not effect the world economy as such. The same for India would lead to massive losses , especially to the west. True, Indians Brag.. its inate.. lets not bring that up here. So did a lot of nations that had to struggle a lot and finally found success. Haven't some Pakistani's here developed a constant need to brag about our nukes? as if it was never done before?.

4.Yes, it is not Pakistan's fault.. but it is also not Afghanistan's fault that it is next to Pakistan which has till ten years ago considered Afghanistan its backyard and has even considered a long term takeover plan using cultural ties and puppet governments as a start. The millions of refugees could have been turned back.. The millions of refugees which were equipped to fight. and allowed to proliferate into our cities and ruin our security and urban culture(with assistance from our on and off "allies" the Americans).

5. So if it was in Pakistan's interest , we should allow slavery? Nuke Zanzibar? Since Pakistan's interest cannot be negotiated with or a compromise reached.. and to preserve that interest we shall use all means even if that path leads to utter ruin of our society and security, not to mention national security.. 65? Pakistan's interest.. East Pakistan fiasco?.. Pakistan's interest.. Millions of refugees, Drugs, Guns , Militant and intolerant Mullahism? Pakistan's interest.. Kargil? Pakistan's interest? Unequivocal and dictatorial participation in the WoT? Pakistan's interest..

Perhaps it is time to see who determines Pakistan's Interest then?.. since the people making those decisions in the past haven't done such a good job now have they?
Or are we such a selfish people that we have agreed to let a select few(who are not even supposed to) make the big decisions in Pakistan's interest even if it means the ruin of another people(Afghans) or even our own(Baloch).

Pakistan should have priority , not sole right to decide the future of Afghanistan.

 

[lem34]

1. ).

Pakistan should have priority , not sole right to decide the future of Afghanistan.

You are right this could get very tedious you and I could spend a weeked together and aside symantics we are patriots probabaly agree on most things for we wish well on pakistan. So lets just concentrate on the the thirteen words above that you have stated which by the way I agree with you completely. Please tell me how Pakistan is being afforded any priority in the deal thats being postulated in this thread?