Def.pk op-ed: Mutual Blackmail, ETO for Afg, Pak and Ind

[lem34]

Thank you for a thought-provoking post. My article was intended to initiate discussing such ideas precisely.

No you didnt you were a proponent of this deal which initself is an abortion for all concerned other than america that definatly not from the neighbourhood and suits india which does not even have a border with afghanistan and could be argued not to be part of afghanistans border, You said:

So what to do next? Much has already been said about the Indo-Pak rivalry and history, and how it affects the present conflict as well, but it is high time for a bold idea that takes it into account, and lays the basis for achieving US goals as well, based on the idea that “friendship is merely mutual blackmail elevated to a higher level”. The US should create and fund an Economic Treaty Organization between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India that will create all the elements of mutual blackmail by tying together long term economic interests of all the parties involved, thus in time elevating it to the higher level of friendship, as already stated above. The return on investment of such a plan is going to be far higher than cleaning up the mess afterwards, and anything less would fail to the detriment of all. After having exhausted all other possibilities, it is high time the Americans did the right thing. Countless millions are counting on it.

 

[lem34]

But both sides have to be suitable and sufficiently motivated to sort these differences out, and economic motivators are the most powerful of all internationally; hence my point in the Op-Ed piece.

Pakistanis nearly did a deal with indians under Mush. Our strategy (armys) strategy is right we can get a better deal from india. If India wants to play it has to give us our pound of flesh.

I also note that on this thread India is spoken of as if it is on parr with china and desires global influence and it is inevitable. Im sorry this is simply not true. India if its lucky can have a regional role no more unless it comes to terms with its neighbours.

 

[President Camacho]

Alternativly India and Pakistan could sit together more seriously and settle our borders as the stakes are so high.

That is what even the people on both sides of the border want - to keep aside the Kashmir problem for a while, and we focus on trade growth. We can still be enemy nations, but we can surely buy and sell stuff to each other without shaking hands.

However, some elites in Pakistan, and some (powerful) politicians in India do not look for anything less than a total win or a total loss. They very much realize the truth that once the trade between both India and Pakistan reaches such heights that we cannot do much without each other, then we will be forced to find a quick and practical solution to all the problems between both the countries.

The cause of all such elites and politicians will vaporize in no time. Just the way it happened between China and India, owing to the large amount of trade.

But the sad part is, such elites and powerful politicians hold strong positions, and unless they are forced upon by someone or something more powerful, they will not step away.

 

[lem34]

That is what even the people on both sides of the border want - to keep aside the Kashmir problem for a while, and we focus on trade growth. We can still be enemy nations, but we can surely buy and sell stuff to each other without shaking hands.

However, some elites in Pakistan, and some (powerful) politicians in India do not look for anything less than a total win or a total loss. They very much realize the truth that once the trade between both India and Pakistan reaches such heights that we cannot do much without each other, then we will be forced to find a quick and practical solution to all the problems between both the countries.

The cause of all such elites and politicians will vaporize in no time. Just the way it happened between China and India, owing to the large amount of trade.

But the sad part is, such elites and powerful politicians hold strong positions, and unless they are forced upon by someone or something more powerful, they will not step away.

President whether we like it or not neither india nor pakistan will fulfill their potentials on the world stage. The stakes are high and we need to resolve this. As you said french and english even had a 100 year war but they resolve their problems. We can, we must resolve our problems. America is no true friend to either us and will never and can never be an umpire here.

 

[Developereo]

At the same time, the US too would want something out of such a scenario for itself. It can be more than satisfied by feeding the oil through Arabian Ocean, but only under the secured supervision of Indian Navy, and no presence of any American boats (military/navy ones).

Stephen Walt, the author of the article 'The End of the American Era' (post #143), would kiss you right now. This is precisely the kind of scenario he suggests (though not specifically with Indian navy).

Offshore balancing, as he and others call it.

 

[President Camacho]

President whether we like it or not neither india nor pakistan will fulfill their potentials on the world stage. The stakes are high and we need to resolve this. As you said french and english even had a 100 year war but they resolve their problems. We can, we must resolve our problems. America is no true friend to either us and will never and can never be an umpire here.

Aryan bhai, in politics, domestic or international, friendship can only be bought, or forced upon. Countries to not live on love. So to cultivate this friendship between India and Pakistan, we too will have to offer something to each other that is beneficial to each other and we cannot do without.

In earlier times, the US offered Pakistan security against India in earlier times, and Pakistan offered to buy stuff and keep Russia out in return, so they were friends, and could not do without each other. Today, the US offers economic deals to India, and in return India promises to buy stuff and to keep China distracted, so these two are friends.

India and Pakistan need to look at the world beyond each other, and shall help each other in reaching different horizons. Such mutual help will bring them much closer than any other countries they have been with. But under the prevailing circumstances, both the countries desperately need someone else to break the ice. Sadly, no one is interested in that. Others would rather want to cheer for a war that would fetch them great trade opportunities.

But things are not as hopeless as it sounds here, because in spite of so many attacks on both the soils, and confrontations, there has been no war between both the countries and bilateral trade is still working its way north, even if at snail-pace.

So only objective at the moment should be to accelerate that process, and once both the countries are assured of mutual blackmail instead of mutual destruction, the role of the middleman will not be required anymore.

 

[lem34]

Stephen Walt, the author of the article 'The End of the American Era' (post #143), would kiss you right now. This is precisely the kind of scenario he suggests (though not specifically with Indian navy).

Offshore balancing, as he and others call it.

He ended his article :

If that is the case—and I believe it is—then Washington must devise a grand strategy that acknowledges this new reality but still uses America’s enduring assets to advance the national interest...

So if we accept this abortion of a deal or listen to president its got nothing to do with the interests of the neighbourhood but falling into line with americas greater interest.

 

[lem34]

So only objective at the moment should be to accelerate that process, and once both the countries are assured of mutual blackmail instead of mutual destruction, the role of the middleman will not be required anymore.

But in this scenario Pakistan would be accepting the status quo. I want peace and development for our countries. Less children hungry on both sides of the border. Mutual blackmail would have been ipi pipeline but india under pressure from america favours no deal or if one then tapi with american involvement. If this mutual blackmail must come then it must be ipi pipline type of deals first rather than american interests and sensitivities. Come on its in the neighnorhoods interest nothing would make me happier Viva Iran Pakistan India.

 

[President Camacho]

Stephen Walt, the author of the article 'The End of the American Era' (post #143), would kiss you right now. This is precisely the kind of scenario he suggests (though not specifically with Indian navy).

Offshore balancing, as he and others call it.

I really wish the name were Stephanie Walt.

In keeping its eye on China, India is trying to rapidly expand its naval prowess in the region. It will never allow for the presence of any other Navy right in its lap - Arabian Ocean facing Mumbai.

The only problem will come from China though... that country gets 80% of its oil from the gulf region, and the gulf is still somewhat under the strong influence of the US, something not very friendly to China. In case of any troubled times in the Pacific, the US may quickly wield its influence in gulf to restrict the oil supplies, while India will keep getting fed by the oil coming down from the CANs.

China will never want to be in a situation where its supplies can be affected by American influence.

 

[lem34]

I really wish the name were Stephanie Walt.

In keeping its eye on China, India is trying to rapidly expand its naval prowess in the region. It will never allow for the presence of any other Navy right in its lap - Arabian Ocean facing Mumbai.

The only problem will come from China though... that country gets 80% of its oil from the gulf region, and the gulf is still somewhat under the strong influence of the US, something not very friendly to China. In case of any troubled times in the Pacific, the US may quickly wield its influence in gulf to restrict the oil supplies, while India will keep getting fed by the oil coming down from the CANs.

China will never want to be in a situation where its supplies can be affected by American influence.

Iran-pakistan-india-china-bangladesh pipeline lol

 

[SQ8]

It is not the just the ruling elite of India and Pakistan, it is the Military forces of the nations as well.
For all its hue and cry over rising up to challenge the Chinese military.. India still maintains a large presence on its western border. Which would be understandable considering the history of misadventures by the Pakistan Army.
However, the PA uses this as an excuse for its massive budget and clout. The establishment of Pakistan lives on threats to Pakistan, otherwise it has no possible bogeyman to exercise to generate support for itself from the masses.

On the other side of the border, most of the Indian military build up is still directed towards its western border. A buildup that is fueled for the most part by the "threat" of terror attacks originating from Pakistan and the need to Punish Pakistan for the same.
Will these powers and their civilian support structure be ready to even consider giving up such an effective lobby for their massive budgets?
I do see a glimmer of hope when it comes to the show of objective professionalism and the overt display of desiring peace by some elements of the Indian military. But can one expect the same from the Pakistan Army? Considering their stance has been fairly rigid throughout...
did find the Mayor of Kabul's interview given to a Pakistani news channel rather comforting and logical.. perhaps for all his ineffective capacity in controlling Afghanistan.. he does have a point.
India CANNOT be ignored in Afghanistan, it is not a regional player but a global player now.I would go far as saying that for Pakistan to be stable it will need an Indian input.. be it constructive, or perhaps destructive. Either way, India's circle of influence extends far beyond Pakistan.
To borrow from mathematics..
Pakistan's establishment must realize that Afghanistan is not a subset of Pakistan, rather A intersection P is what must be considered..
India too must consider that whatever set that results in its interests in Afghanistan has an intersection with Pakistan's interests and therefore it must understand and request co-operation by Pakistan.

The US must also consider that it is no longer the superset as was defined in the cold wars. And must change its engagement policies accordingly. It needs to leave Afghanistan fast, and for all its misgivings with Pakistan.. It has to realize that compared to any other nation in the region, Pakistan will always have the largest role to play in a Post US Afghanistan and deserves the highest priority and veto when a solution for Afghanistan is determined.

Finally, The set in discussion that is Afghanistan.. must have all its players and not just a few selected ethnic groups or leaders when it comes to deciding a future for the nation.

 

[President Camacho]

But in this scenario Pakistan would be accepting the status quo. I want peace and development for our countries. Less children hungry on both sides of the border. Mutual blackmail would have been ipi pipeline but india under pressure from america favours no deal or if one then tapi with american involvement. If this mutual blackmail must come then it must be ipi pipline type of deals first rather than american interests and sensitivities. Come on its in the neighnorhoods interest nothing would make me happier Viva Iran Pakistan India.

See, any sort of mutual blackmail is imperative to keep peace in the region.

For example, we are already practicing a mutual blackmail in the form of nukes aimed at each other, though it is a scary kind of mutual whatever lol

However, if we are to include the most effective middleman, then we will be forced to exclude Iran from the scene, after all we cannot have everything that we desire and mutual blackmail too means the same.

Secondly, how is it that we will not be practicing the same thing by exclusion of IPI and inclusion of TAPI? After all, in both the cases the pipelines will have to go through Pakistan, ending up in India. So if the IPI looks so difficult to implement, why not go for whatever we can actually materialize on, i.e. TAPI?

 

[lem34]

^^^^^^ gotta go now but will want a right of reply disagree with chunks of your assertions assumptions etc that was meant for santro. But Pres I have to go but will respond later. In my opinion big diff between tapi and ipi

 

[SQ8]

^^^^^^ gotta go now but will want a right of reply disagree with chunks of your assertions assumptions etc that was meant for santro. But Pres I have to go but will respond later. In my opinion big diff between tapi and ipi

Take your time... Im hungry right now.. feel like a large cheese and pepperoni pizza.. if not for my now well developed tire stack.

Senor Camacho.. Why do we consider the US the most effective middleman?

 

[IND151]

For the bolded parts above:

1. Pakistan may think that, but the reality is that India has a role to play in the region, like it or not.

2. The word blackmail was used in reference to the saying that "friendship is mutual blackmail raised to a higher level", which holds quite true in international geopolitics.






















3. I guess that means India already has a role in Afghanistan. How can Pakistan best deal with it? Crying "foul!" will not change the reality of India's involvement.

thanks for such good post

many members here don't think India is even regional power.