Chinese might face internal problems and disintegrate

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

How can you know the value of a article without having read it? You are really dumb, aren't you?

I will try one last time, before I give up: the article doesn't say might, it says will.

Because its written that China will collapse, it will?
I wrote earlier that your d1ck 'might' fall off but should change it to 'will' and thus from your retard dog logic, it is guaranteed to happen.
Ha hi ho hi ho

 

[armchairPrivate]

Chinese don't deal with "will". Chinese deal with "is", "has".
Only Indians talk and talk and talk that they will and will and will. And nothing get done.

 

[INDIC]

Chinese don't deal with "will". Chinese deal with "is", "has".
Only Indians talk and talk and talk that they will and will and will. And nothing get done.

How did you find India here.

 

[atatwolf]

It is not wishful thinking, he gives good arguments..

If you all know it better, comment on this:

"First, China’s current economic model is not sustainable. That model favors employment over all other concerns, and can only be maintained by running on thin margins."

"Second, the Chinese model is only possible so long as Western populations continue to consume Chinese goods in increasing volumes. European demographics alone will make that impossible in the next decade."

"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."

"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope."

 

[armchairPrivate]

^^^^

Indians are everywhere.
We have Indians here.

As to India, it looks like a pear shape tit.
And I like tits.

 

[ephone]

It will happen one day???

That is called prediction???

stratfor is already deemed as idiots but you are more than that actually.

Stratfor was right about everything. You shouldn't focus on small details because of this: Stratfor says it doesn't predict small events but major events and says the date is not determined but it will happen one day if one looks to major movements.

 

[Hyperion]

Yeah, I know. Besides, it has lied so much over the years that even in DC no one believes in their bullshit any more. Intelligence my **** and outcomes their ***!

@Hyperion

Stratfor is a zionist owned propagenda machine.

 

[faithfulguy]

If you look online, you will see constant predictions about two countries collapsing. US and China. In my humble opinion, out of all the countries in the world, these two countries are the two that will be least likely to collapse because of their economic size and influence.

 

[Genesis]

The current per capita is about 6000 dollars nominal in China more or less, with some places double that and some places lower.

With purchasing power it is about 9000 dollars today and all this is per person not house hold.

So the first information is already wrong. Even back track 3, 4 years it is still not that low.

Second this article claims China will slow down based on Japan and yet just like a "scholar" he fail to see differences.

Japan is a small country with limited resources and people. It can punch above its weight like Buster Douglas against Tyson, but when the giant is no longer drunk on drugs and uninterested. They will no longer be beaten.

China maybe heading into slower growth, but also maybe not, because China has a five thousand year old tradition of valuing education, and through education, the face of the Chinese economy will transform into a service and mid to high end manufacture and no longer lower end.

This author "looks" at China and draws comparison with Japan, but fails to see that there are similarities as well as differences.

As to your personal claim China is deeply divided, you know nothing, haven't you heard believe non of what you hear and half of what you see? We may have our differences, but in the end we are Han Chinese, we are one. This is demonstrated in the Sino Japanese war, if you have doubts.

Finally, this author seems like someone who just read some data and start claiming things. You need to look at many things to see the big picture, not just the past, present, but also future. Not just how they are but also how they adapt.

See 1989, and how the Party has adapt to changing times and how effective it is, how many predicted the end of communist then? How many predicted the collapse then? And how foolish they all are now?

 

[Khitan21]

lol, you're posting this kind of stuff again? I have already told you in detail WHY China won't collapse.

China faced numerous rebellions in the past 150 years that killed more people than WW2, yet China remains; China faced dozens of economic turmoil throughout the mid to late 1800s and even more disastrous economic turmoil in the early 1900s under the KMT, yet China remains; China faced numerous invasions from European powers and Japan, yet China remains; China went through the cultural revolution, yet China remains.

Go and read history because you have no clue. China is highly fragmented society with very different people. From what I heard from Chinese people, a Chinese in the north, can't understand a Chinese in the south, and that also counts from west to east.

China as a nation, as a civilization is too integrated with each other to ever disintegrate, the HanZi (Chinese characters) is one of the reason why throughout history, China is able to stick together as a nation, Chinese people from north south east west in the past were able to understand each other through Han Zi. and during times of unity, there was always a country language, the current one is Mandarin.

Even during the fragmented eras, all the different dynasty and Kingdoms all thought one thing : Unite China. There was never this country or that country just many dynasty and kingdoms thinking they are the rightful rulers of all over China, and that is what separates China from Europe.

So your argument on how Chinese people can't understand each other is very poor one, and very clear indicator you know nothing about Chinese history nor its culture hence why you won't know why China will never disintegrate.

Not to mention, all these different culture have LONG assimilated with each other into one common identity, The Han people. so you can rule the culture part out for the reason of disintegration out.

you can be sure every year, China gets better and better why? because China has faced worse adversity in the past and believe it or not, Modern post Mao Communist China after Deng Xiaopeng is the most stable government China has had since the early Qing Dynasty, before that China had worse governments, and yet you guessed it, China remains, and has yet to disintegrate.

Here is why Straftor is wrong and I'm gonna explain why very very very briefly, as I have told you before and can't be stuffed to write it again :

1. China is a continental country size of europe not small island archipelogo Japan.

2. No other nation can match China manufacturing + Chinese buying own brands.

3. China invest Heavily in education

4. rapid advancement in technology.

5. two child policy or more - already in effect in some villages as experiments, probably gonna be implemented nationwide later.

6. Did I mention China is a continental power? lol, China has more then enough resources to cope + Siberia + Central Asia + advancement in technology.

and like Genesis said, the Per capita data is terribly obsolete, by 2020 its gonna exceed 10k and sky rocket from there.

 

[Jackdaws]

I doubt China would collapse or disintegrate - the stranglehold of the Communist Party over its citizens is very strong and the Chinese people themselves have historically never stood up for their rights.

 

[Saleem]

Shameless jerk posting a 3 yrs old so-called China collapse article "08/29/2010 at 1:45 AM" to satisfy his own anti-China agenda, disgusting behavior in full display.

false flag indians masquerading as others...india is already disintegrating........we just have to wait a few years....dont let that guy bother you....

 

[atatwolf]

Yeah, I know. Besides, it has lied so much over the years that even in DC no one believes in their bullshit any more. Intelligence my **** and outcomes their ***!

Can you give me a source about DC and their opinion about Stratfor? Because until now everything what Stratfor predicted came TRUE.

If you look online, you will see constant predictions about two countries collapsing. US and China. In my humble opinion, out of all the countries in the world, these two countries are the two that will be least likely to collapse because of their economic size and influence.

You clearly didn't read the arguments he gave. Just the bigness of a country doesn't mean anything. That is like saying. The titanic is soooooo big, it can't sink. China is not even Titanic.. China is a boat where 90% of the population lives in poverty.

 

[Okemos]

"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope."

STRATFOR: “CHINA WILL COLLAPSE”

I am not sure about the first 3 points since I am not economist, but he got facts in last point totally wrong. More than 1 billion Chinese living in households below $2000 a year????? and 600 million below $1000???? WTF, so the whole population of China live in households with income below $2000 a year? $2000 = 13000 yuan, which would mean about 1100 yuan a month for whole household of say 3-4 people. As far as I remember, at least in my province, Zhejiang, medium monthly income of one person would be around 6-8000 Yuan, so a household of a couple with one kid should be making 15000 yuan at least.

Is the author on crack?

 

[armchairPrivate]

OH MY GOD. CHINA IS IMPLODING!!! LETS RUN FOR OUR LIVES!!!!

BBC News - China's ambitious plans for its huge reserves

China's ambitious plans for its huge reserves

Is it possible to have too much of a good thing?

I ask, because while so many Western governments spend sleepless nights worrying about the size of their trade deficits, China has the opposite problem.

Thanks to its export success, China is the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. Those reserves are growing all the time and currently stand at a record $3.44 trillion. That's $3,440,000,000,000 if you want all the zeros, or basically the size of the entire German economy.

What's in the reserves is a state secret, but a report in the China Securities Journal a few years ago revealed that 65% was held in dollars, 26% in euros, 5% in pounds and 3% in yen.

The Chinese are the largest holder of US government debt after the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. They also own European government debt, but perhaps not as many bonds from those troubled countries on the periphery as the eurozone governments would like to see.

During the height of the euro crisis the single currency would rise with every indication, sign, hint or vague rumour that China was planning to buy euro area bonds.

You might think that a trade surplus the size of China's would be good news. But according to People's Bank of China officials such as Deputy Governor Yi Gang, it's actually posing problems because of the fixed exchange rate.

Challenges
Holding reserves is a way to protect a country's currency from attack, as selling reserves can help sustain the value of a currency. It's a lesson that central banks learned after the Asian financial crisis.

For China, the yuan floats within a narrow band of 1% on either side of a peg, so reserves are helpful. But it's unclear how much a country really needs.

It's not just a worry that the US dollar or euro will depreciate. The concern is also due to reserves contributing too much cash in the economy. That's leading to price rises, including in housing.

When a central bank accumulates reserves, it prints cash (yuan) to buy the dollars, euros, pounds and yen that it adds to its reserves. To prevent that cash from generating inflation (imagine if China added $3.4tn of cash to its $8tn economy), the central bank "sterilises" its actions by withdrawing the equivalent amount of cash from the economy.

It does this by paying interest on money that commercial banks deposit back at the central bank, so encouraging them to leave their cash there.

Sterilisation tends to be incomplete, as banks may want to earn a better return elsewhere instead of parking money at the central bank.

China does it better than most since it has a largely state-owned banking system which tends to do what it's told. Nevertheless, the reserves are still a source of excess money or liquidity.
Compounding the problem is the worry that the central bank may not be earning a great return on those reserves, as the yields (or interest rates) on US and European government bonds are low.

So, instead, China is using its reserves to finance overseas investment. China wants to buy real assets - like ports, utilities, natural resources, technology and financial companies.

This has two benefits for the Chinese.

As well as the hope that real companies will earn better returns than financial instruments, it also helps them to achieve a larger economic goal - to build Chinese multinational companies.

China's 'going out' policy
Globally competitive firms could help China raise its technological capacity and productivity. That is key to sustaining economic growth. China would like to follow the example of other countries that have become rich - like South Korea or Taiwan - and develop successful global brands like Samsung and HTC.

This was China's aim when it launched the "going global" or "going out" policy in 2000. The first ever commercial overseas investment was in 2003-04 in Europe when the Chinese firm TCL bought France's Thomson brand. Since then, outward foreign direct investment has grown exponentially and reached record levels.

Chinese direct investment abroad 1982-2010 (US$bn) Source: IMF
Last December was also the first time in which monthly data showed the amount invested overseas exceeded inward investment. That switch is typically an indicator of a country reaching a level of economic development.

State-owned enterprises have invested overseas for more than three decades and will continue to do so. China's state-owned firm, State Grid, the world's largest utility company, has just announced a second foray into Australia's energy market.

But the outward investment is diverse. It isn't just resources and energy. The largest regions for investment are other parts of Asia, followed by Latin America and then Europe.


China's overseas investment
Region Total Largest recipient of investment
SOURCE: IMF STOCK OF OVERSEAS DIRECT INVESTMENT (END 2011)
Asia
$303.4bn
Hong Kong ($262bn)
Latin America
$55.2bn
Cayman Islands ($21.7bn)
Europe
$24.5bn
Russia ($3.8bn)
Africa
$16.2bn
South Africa ($4.1bn)
North America
$13.5bn
US ($9bn)
Oceania
$12bn
Australia ($11bn)
Chinese firms have to receive permission to invest overseas, as the country still controls capital movements. Thus, Chinese investments are driven by what can almost be described as "competitive disadvantage". That is, they invest where the Chinese economy needs bolstering.

So, it's not just resources but also technology and higher valued services - which is why the countries receiving the most investment (excepting places like Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands) are Australia, Singapore and the United States.

However, Chinese investment is not always popular in the countries receiving it. State-financed investment can generate a political backlash, as has been seen in Australia and the United States.

Plus, private Chinese firms can find it challenging to operate due to a lack of transparency as to what is state and what is private. This suggests an important area of reform for China, which is to make it clearer the sources of financing for its overseas deals and the ownership of Chinese companies.

Problem solves itself
Chances are, China won't be running the large trade surpluses of the past.

Last year, the surplus fell to less than 3% of GDP from the over 10% reached before the 2008 global financial crisis. They won't sell as much to overseas markets as those economies slowly recover, so China is unlikely to accumulate reserves to the same extent as before.

It also means that it will be more important for Chinese overseas investment to be accepted since China will rely more on having productive and competitive multinational firms to grow. And those firms may increasingly need to raise financing on a more competitive basis.

What is clear that we will see Chinese companies increasingly on the global stage. Their success will matter not only for the companies, but also for the country's continuing growth.