Can Bangladesh overtake Pakistan's economy in size?

[Elucid]

The way things are going BD will easily overtake Pakistan maybe by 2025 or earlier. Bengali economy is in a flight. Textile has spurred the growth. Incomes are rising, further sectors will develop. More and more investment will come into the country to take advantage of cheap but educated labour. Pakistan on the other hand is in real mess. One cannot simply invest in this country. There are no resource markets. One has to deal with government officials to get his factors of production. Buying a piece of land requires dealings with politicians and paying them there commissions. In fact starting up any business requires back channel deals with the powerful and paying royalties. There is no transparency. The whole country has been divided up with powerful gangs who take turns ruling this country.

 

[F.O.X]

Bangladesh GDP is $153bn currently .. and if you put in constant growth of 6% after 30 years i.e(2039) it will be around $878bn

Pakistan's Current GDP is around $280bn if we put the constant growth of 5% it will be around $1210bn after 30 years .

All the figures are nominal not PPP , and estimated on the basis of past 3 years performance .

But if you need future foretasted Figures here is a Chart i made for the Future 50 years .

All the Figures are in $bn

So it is very unlikely that Bangladesh will be catching up with Pakistan anytime soon , but then again anything is possible , i cannot account for all the variables .

 

[BDforever]

Bangladesh GDP is $153bn currently .. and if you put in constant growth of 6% after 30 years i.e(2039) it will be around $878bn

Pakistan's Current GDP is around $280bn if we put the constant growth of 5% it will be around $1210bn after 30 years .

All the figures are nominal not PPP , and estimated on the basis of past 3 years performance .

But if you need future foretasted Figures here is a Chart i made for the Future 50 years .

All the Figures are in $bn

So it is very unlikely that Bangladesh will be catching up with Pakistan anytime soon , but then again anything is possible , i cannot account for all the variables .

good try but failed.
BD GDP (PPP)=$306bn (2012)

 

[F.O.X]

good try but failed.
BD GDP (PPP)=$306bn (2012)

It is Better to read First before opening writing. Let me requote my own post .

All the figures are nominal not PPP

 

[BDforever]

It is Better to read First before opening your mouth .. Let me requote my own post .

oh ok anyway Pakistan's GDP growth is around 3 not 5

 

[DarkPrince]

lolz if pakistan can kick talibans their economy will rise very rapidly.

while india will always try to control BD but not take it, reason is obvious. sea water is rising thats a big problem

and disgusting politics. but lets hope for the better

 

[F.O.X]

oh ok anyway Pakistan's GDP growth is around 3 not 5

Pakistan's GDP growth for first quarter of 2014 is 5.1%

 

[BDforever]

Pakistan's GDP growth for first quarter of 2014 is 5.1%

really ? cool bro, nice

 

[waz]

Pakistan is engaged in a war with a horrific internal enemy. Once this problem is solved Pakistan's growth would be rapid. I'm not sure if the comparison is valid.

As for Pakistan we have the youngest population in South Asia, masses of natural resources, a strategic location etc. All great precursors to growth.

 

[EasyNow]

It's not really a fair time to make a comparison with Pakistan right now as they are in an unusually complicated situation, but i'm really proud that BD is managing to stay on track despite the politics and the extremists at home.

 

[American Pakistani]

Bangladesh & Pakistan's comparison makes no sense at all.

Also i don't think Bangladesh can surpass Pakistan as Pakistan has a big land. Pakistan is always busy with wars & instability since 1947. Give Pakistan a peaceful decade & i can bet it will expand it's economy 20 times of what it is now. Much of Pakistan's land is unexplored, many gas/coal/oil discoveries has been made in recent months. Many predicts Pakistan might be sitting on huge oil reserves.

ARI estimates 586Trillion cf of risked shale gas in-place for Pakistan. Whereas risked shale oil in-place for Pakistan is 230billion barrels.

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/chaptersxx_xxvi.pdf

Also visit this thread FMI.
Pakistan's Vast Shale Oil & Gas Reserves | Updates & Discussions

These are just recent discoveries of Oil & Gas...i haven't posted about other minerals/resources of Pakistan. Then there is agricultural growth, industrial growth, tourism growth, etc etc. As i said give Pakistan a decade of peace & see it's potential. No offense but in the long run i don't see Bangladesh economy ahead of Pakistan. There are several factors.

 

[Elucid]

lolz if pakistan can kick talibans their economy will rise very rapidly.

while india will always try to control BD but not take it, reason is obvious. sea water is rising thats a big problem

and disgusting politics. but lets hope for the better

Pakistan is engaged in a war with a horrific internal enemy. Once this problem is solved Pakistan's growth would be rapid. I'm not sure if the comparison is valid.

As for Pakistan we have the youngest population in South Asia, masses of natural resources, a strategic location etc. All great precursors to growth.

Taliban is not even a problem. Their impact is insignificant. The real problem is medieval styled king(government)-owns-it-all economy. No free and transparent market.

 

[Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury]

Pakistan has two big factors in their favour - 1) a long head start as a nation; 2) much bigger land, blessed with a lot of natural resources

However, as Japan and Singapore have shown, you don't necessarily have to big in size and blessed with oil and gas reserves, to be become among the great economies of the world.

 

[waz]

Taliban is not even a problem. Their impact is insignificant. The real problem is medieval styled king(government)-owns-it-all economy. No free and transparent market.

Taliban is a huge problem. The very impact of what can be best described as "negative multiplier" is being felt everywhere.

The government and associated structural problems in the economy are issues, but thing is NONE of these can be tackled when people fear some crazed nut can run into an area, blow to pieces and take 30 people with him....

 

[livingdead]

It is BDs confrontational politics that is the main reason why BD is not at double-digit growth now.

Still 6% a year GDP growth is not bad and that is around twice that of Pakistan when GDP/capita is taken into account.

No offence to either Pakistan or India but BD has its sights set on Sri Lanka to try to replicate as a model, but its political system is not mature enough yet.

bd does not have twice gdp/capita of pakistan ...