Bangladesh Airforce inviting tender for 8 MRCA

[Species]

8 or 12 unit?

8 in the first batch, 4 in the second. All will be delivered by 2019.

We need several squadrons of top multi-role to counter IAF. Perhaps we will see many of this item plus the Mig-29 sqn revamped. However, my assessment is that our F-7s will be replaced with Chinese ac eventually to be our deadly counter threat.

It appears that the F-7s will serve few more years (as the F-7MBs are being overhauled at BAC) while BAF is opening a new squadron with J-10Bs (not replacements). I guess BAF has plans to replace the F-7s with J-31s in future, so they want to buy time with the life extension.

 

[Michael Corleone]

Couple of squadron of J-10s need to be ordered by 2018. But I m afraid that after this acquisition our defense budget will balloon billions of dollar per year. It will not take much to reach 6-8 billions by 2021

This is affordable just by keeping defence spending constant as a percentage of GDP.

BD economy is likely to grow 8-9% average between now and 2030.

PS - Remember China will almost certainly sell it's arms at cost price and easy repayment terms spread over 5-10 years.

If we look at the average growth rate for the next five years to 2020... (7.12%)
We would be having a GDP of around 353 billion dollars. And if the defense budget spending remains constant to the GDP of 2% then we can see a defense budget of 7 billion dollars in 2020.... easy math! And not shocking either considering where we stand now.

 

[asad71]

8 in the first batch, 4 in the second. All will be delivered by 2019.



It appears that the F-7s will serve few more years (as the F-7MBs are being overhauled at BAC) while BAF is opening a new squadron with J-10Bs (not replacements). I guess BAF has plans to replace the F-7s with J-31s in future, so they want to buy time with the life extension.

As new ac arrive in BAF, F-7 BGs ought to be handed over to BN to raise a potent naval air wing. Navy understands their requirement, environment and op needs better than BAF.

 

[TopCat]

If we look at the average growth rate for the next five years to 2020... (7.12%)
We would be having a GDP of around 353 billion dollars. And if the defense budget spending remains constant to the GDP of 2% then we can see a defense budget of 7 billion dollars in 2020.... easy math! And not shocking either considering where we stand now.

Our defense budget is 1.23% of our GDP not 2%

 

[Michael Corleone]

Our defense budget is 1.23% of our GDP not 2%

I'm talking into account the whole sum of around 5 billion of which 2 bill was allocated for paramilitary. Alright even without that.... taking 1.23% as sum for everything including paramilitary.... it's around 4.34 billion dollars.


So if the air force gets 1 bill to play with... 500mil can easily get you a sqd each year... while the rest 500 can be used for other logistics.

 

[TopCat]

I'm talking into account the whole sum of around 5 billion of which 2 bill was allocated for paramilitary. Alright even without that.... taking 1.23% as sum for everything including paramilitary.... it's around 4.34 billion dollars.

Nobody count border guard in their defense budget.

 

[Michael Corleone]

Nobody count border guard in their defense budget.

Then you got 4.34 bill for the armed forces alone. Enough for each wing including the salary.

As new ac arrive in BAF, F-7 BGs ought to be handed over to BN to raise a potent naval air wing. Navy understands their requirement, environment and op needs better than BAF.

That would be an insult to navy.... f-7 can hardly cover the ocean and if they do... have no fuel to make it back.

 

[Bengal Tiger 71]

8 in the first batch, 4 in the second. All will be delivered by 2019.



It appears that the F-7s will serve few more years (as the F-7MBs are being overhauled at BAC) while BAF is opening a new squadron with J-10Bs (not replacements). I guess BAF has plans to replace the F-7s with J-31s in future, so they want to buy time with the life extension.

8 + 4 & next 4 then it full fill 1 sqd.or again like Mig ?

 

[TopCat]

Then you got 4.34 bill for the armed forces alone. Enough for each wing including the salary.

4.34 will not meet up with the air force we are talking about. The smart munition that comes with them need regular replenishment which will take major portion of your budget. You will not even feel them.

 

[Michael Corleone]

8 + 4 & next 4 then it full fill 1 sqd.or again like Mig ?

Read in bd military that the sukhois will be deployed in sqd no 8... the mig sqd.
The Facebook group post

4.34 will not meet up with the air force we are talking about. The smart munition that comes with them need regular replenishment which will take major portion of your budget. You will not even feel them.

Yes but we're not in a wartime situation that we will be having a irregular growing demand.

 

[asad71]

Then you got 4.34 bill for the armed forces alone. Enough for each wing including the salary.


That would be an insult to navy.... f-7 can hardly cover the ocean and if they do... have no fuel to make it back.

No, it would not be an insult to begin an air arm with available resources. And I do believe this ac has enough endurance to cover northern Bay.

 

[Michael Corleone]

No, it would not be an insult to begin an air arm with available resources. And I do believe this ac has enough endurance to cover northern Bay.

But do you think navy would accept Air Force fighters? I think they would rather buy new.

 

[UKBengali]

4.34 will not meet up with the air force we are talking about. The smart munition that comes with them need regular replenishment which will take major portion of your budget. You will not even feel them.

Still that will suffice as economy will grow 8-9% a year between now and 2030.

Remember that the bulk of the armaments will be imported from China. Russia will come a distant second.

BD may acquire say another squadron of Su-30SMEs but after that it will probably look like 4 squadrons of J-10bs and 4 squadrons of J-31s starting service from 2025 onwards. China will most certainly sell these at cost price and will allow allow soft loans where BD pays over 5-10 years.

As long as BD's economy grows at a fast rate, even 1.2% of GDP spent on defence, with the generous price and repayment terms from China means Forces Goal 2030 is affordable.

 

[Michael Corleone]

Still that will suffice as economy will grow 8-9% a year between now and 2030.

Remember that the bulk of the armaments will be imported from China. Russia will come a distant second.

BD may acquire say another squadron of Su-30SMEs but after that it will probably look like 4 squadrons of J-10bs and 4 squadrons of J-31s starting service from 2025 onwards. China will most certainly sell these at cost price and will allow allow soft loans where BD pays over 5-10 years.

As long as BD's economy grows at a fast rate, even 1.2% of GDP spent on defence, with the generous price and repayment terms from China means Forces Goal 2030 is affordable.

If bd had plans to get j31... they wouldn't try to fetch j10 because other than stealth... there are no further advantage in buying j31

 

[UKBengali]

If bd had plans to get j31... they wouldn't try to fetch j10 because other than stealth... there are no further advantage in buying j31

J-31 is in a completely different league than J-10b.
J-31s would eat J-10bs for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

J-10bs are for the here and now and J-31s will start arriving by mid-2020s when they are ready.

Personally I forsee the ten squadrons of BAF fighter fleet to look like following by 2030:

1. 2 squadrons of SU-30SME
2. 4 squadrons of J-10b
3. 4 squadrons of J-31.

Without J-31, BAF wont be able to provide a credible deterrent to it's only military threat India.