Your concept of prediction differs from everybody's that is as you assume the Hainan incident automatically translates to bad Chinese pilots and every Chinese pilots will cause a tragedy. Now don't try to deny you didn't want to convey this message. Intellectual dishonesty coming from you is a joke.
That is
YOUR translation. Not mine. And you obviously do have difficulty understanding the concept of a prediction.
But if it is that difficult for you, I will try to make it easier: Based upon the fact that this ADIZ is China's first, which mean that China have no experience in the maintenance of such, that the PLAAF have a history of poor air discipline of its pilots outside of territorial airspace, and that this new ADIZ was created in a high air traffic area, the odds (not certainty) of a tragedy caused by the PLAAF increases.
Here is why what China did, and that using the American ADIZ as an excuse, bothered professionals
ALL OVER THE WORLD...
The contention is not that China created an ADIZ. China have just as much right to create an ADIZ as the US, Japan, or South Korea did. The contention is about the rules that accompanied the ADIZ.
Do you understand -- the rules? China should not have used the American ADIZ rules as template. That is
SHOULD NOT, not 'cannot'. Do you understand the difference?
We have three flights: A B C.
If you are flight A, you must have a filed flight plan with the US.
If you are flight C, you do not need a filed flight plan.
If you are flight B, there are issues:
- If your intention is to enter US domestic airspace, then you must have a filed flight plan, and if you do, then why are you deviating?
- If your intention is to fly to Central/South America, then what are you doing in the American ADIZ in the first place?
- If your departure point is from inside US territory or from inside the ADIZ, then you must have a filed flight plan, so where is it?
The geography of the US/Canada territory
DOES NOT have any allowances for flying to Central/South America by way of the American ADIZ. Can you see why? There are flights from Europe to Central/South American countries everyday and the only time any of them need to file a flight plan with US is when a flight need to enter US domestic airspace, as in flight A.
The Chinese ADIZ rules requires all flights to file flight plans with China regardless of final destination or the need to enter Chinese domestic airspace. When countries are in close geographical proximity to each other, as how Asian countries are, any kind of rules intended for high traffic air corridors should not be declared without consultation with
ESTABLISHED aviation countries in the region, in other words, Japan and South Korea were aviation powers before China was and they have used that corridor for decades without molestation.
China have every right for national security reasons that no one can challenge to established that ADIZ, but China should have consulted with established aviation powers, which includes the US, prior to creating and declaring that ADIZ. Odds are good that the rules would not have pissed off tens of thousands of aviation professionals, from pilots to attorneys to administrators. Probably not one of you have ever been in the cockpit of an aircraft, let alone be flying one and be responsible for a couple hundreds human beings, and here you, and the other Chinese members, are telling those professionals they are stupid.
This is why the odds of a tragedy will increase. But hey, according to Internet Chinese members who declared themselves aviation 'experts' despite barely able to tell the difference between a screwdriver and a hammer, all carriers have to do is email the flight plans and problems solved.
