Abe thumbs up to #MakeinIndia; offers to set up plant in India for US-2 aircraft

[INDIAPOSITIVE]

SOURCE: PTI

Japan’s ShinMaywa Industries, the manufacturer of US-2 amphibious aircraft that India is eyeing, is betting big on the ‘Make in India’ initiative and has offered to set up a plant here to cater to international demands.The move comes as the Navy plans to procure six such aircraft, under a government to government deal, between 2017 and 2022. Six are proposed to be bought in the next phase.

“The deal when inked will have a 30 per cent offset clause. Under this offset clause, ShinMaywa wants to set up a plant in India to cater to the global market since the demand for the aircraft is high,” defence sources said.

The project has been in the works since 2011 but got a renewed push following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan in 2014 and a return trip by Japanese PM Shinzo Abe here last December.

Sources said the deal could be be a “government to government” exercise with the initial purchase being off the shelf.

“It is not simple to start manufacturing here. There has to be the necessary infrastructure and expertise,” sources said.

If the deal goes through, it would be the first major export of Japanese defence item after it lifted decades-long self-imposed embargo on export of weapons.

The aircraft, which can land on choppy waters and have long-range civilian and military applications, are being sought by the Navy to monitor India’s vast coastline, islands and for use is disaster relief.

Sources said that for the Indian Navy, the next priority project is the P-75 India, under which it plans to build six more conventional submarines.

Also on priority are six nuclear-powered submarines for which the Cabinet Committee on Security had given the go ahead last February.

“P75I and nuclear submarines are the main focus right now besides the development of next indigenous aircraft carrier,” sources said.

Amphibian aircraft can take off and land on both land and water. Seven of these aircraft are operated as Search and Rescue Amphibians by Japanese military.

Including its predecessor US-1, the amphibians have been dispatched over 900 times to rescue victims of maritime accidents.

A ShinMaywa representative said it has not tied up with any Indian firm for the project but has been in talks with several of them since 2011.

 

[zambino]

So which class of submarines is under consideration for p75i?? Type 216 or marlin class or the soryu class

 

[Tshering22]

So which class of submarines is under consideration for p75i?? Type 216 or marlin class or the soryu class

I have a feeling the way Japan has suddenly changed its mind, that NaMo might have simply canceled the tendering process and just gone ahead with considering Soryu submarines for IN.

That would be a lovely combination in our kitty.

What say @Nihonjin1051 san?

 

[Abingdonboy]

I have a feeling the way Japan has suddenly changed its mind, that NaMo might have simply canceled the tendering process and just gone ahead with considering Soryu submarines for IN.

It would ceratainly fit with the NDA/PM's modus operandi thus far. Govt-govt deals seem to be in vougue as it stands for these critical operational purchases.

Japan’s ShinMaywa Industries, the manufacturer of US-2 amphibious aircraft that India is eyeing, is betting big on the ‘Make in India’ initiative and has offered to set up a plant here to cater to international demands.The move comes as the Navy plans to procure six such aircraft, under a government to government deal, between 2017 and 2022. Six are proposed to be bought in the next phase.

“The deal when inked will have a 30 per cent offset clause. Under this offset clause, ShinMaywa wants to set up a plant in India

Highly misleading title/narrative. This news is simply reffereing to the mandatory offset obligations which will be invested in setting up a localised supply chain in India and which may cater to third parties should the situation arise (I wouldn't hold my breath). There won't be a US-2I production line in India, not for just 6+6 units.

There's nothing that remarkable here really. Quite a standard purchase/deal.

cater to the global market since the demand for the aircraft is high,

Well that's quite a stretch.

 

[Ind4Ever]

Abe must show some leniency with Soryu SSK . hope India order 12 of 6 made in Japan and 6 in India . it also could be 3 in Japan and 3 in India with 3-4 options for follow on .

Why Soryu being denied to us ? We Indians fave the same enemy for which this subs are been built for

 

[Tshering22]

Abe must show some leniency with Soryu SSK . hope India order 12 of 6 made in Japan and 6 in India . it also could be 3 in Japan and 3 in India with 3-4 options for follow on .

Why Soryu being denied to us ? We Indians fave the same enemy for which this subs are been built for

It is not denied; Japanese government is still discussing whether to go so full blown with selling weapons.

Remember they haven't sold a nut and bolt to anyone other than USA since 70 years.

It will take them some time to get used to selling weapons technology around.

 

[Skull and Bones]

After this, what is the prospect of India and japan collaborating on fifth gen fighter aircraft development? @Nihonjin1051

 

[Ind4Ever]

It is not denied; Japanese government is still discussing whether to go so full blown with selling weapons.

Remember they haven't sold a nut and bolt to anyone other than USA since 70 years.

It will take them some time to get used to selling weapons technology around.

You are getting my point. Japan and Australia are already in discussions for Soryu submarine's . May be for more than 3-5 years now . At first Japan denied, Then agreed to make them in Japan alone . Later it was decided 40% of order will be made in Japan and rest in Australia. Now I guess both agreed to make all of them in Australia .

But Japan denied any sales to India even after High level discussion with PM and DM . Reason? Fearing that their technology and secrets about Soryu will be leaked to the Chinese. Our government is fire fighting this issue with Japan for many years now . That's a raises problem with TOT for which we have P75 I ..Helping our indigenous SSK program. And our orders are half the size of Australians. 12 and our is just 6 and may be 2-3 more .

So its gonna be very hard for us to select Soryu for P75I . We could go for German boats I guess. They are more open about TOT and we have 4 old boats which will be upgraded.So buying 6 more could make this number to 10 .

9 old + 3 new kilos

4 old + 6 new German boats P75 I

6 + 2/3 Scorpene sub's P75I

I think that's gonna be our SSK fleet.

Hope Abe and Modi gets into act and get Soryu inducted into our Navy. Massive fire power it would bring. But most importantly it will make China more insecure. That's where we both need to converge and help each others.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

IMHO few things which are important in understanding a US2 deal and hiccups is

• The US-2 -I for India is suppose to be manufactured by a pvt sector company under MII
  
• The pvt sector company is suppose to deliver 2 in first year year of production and then followed by 3-4 in following years
• The initial setup timeline is expected around 3-3.5 years (36-42 months)
• Implying the first two US-2 - I is expected around 42-54 or approximately between 4th year beginning and 4th year end from signing of contract
• The initial investment for setup is estimated around USD 1.2 Bn for the line
• Each of the individual US-2 is estimated around USD 90 Mn - USD 115 Mn based on different configs
• In a conservative basis if the order is just 6 the line is "online" for less than 3 years as first year of production =2, 2nd year of production =3, 3rd year of production =1
• This implies a total investment of USD 1.8 Bn approx and end to end timeline of max 72 months or 6 years
• thats why FOR 6 MII IS NOT POSSIBLE
• For a effective plan for MII line setup post line being "online" you need productivity assurance for at least 7 years for a minimum end to end project timeline for 10 years.
• Its simply, production time being twice of time required for installation time. Since installation time being 36-42 months, you need the production to be minimum 72-84 months for a total timeline of 108-126 Months giving you a median of ~10 years
• In such a case barring first 36 months, the production schedule approx is
  • Year 4 - 2
  • Year 5,6,7,8,9,10 - 4 x 6 = 24
  • total = 28 birds
• Assuming 1 bird from year 5-10 is for exports, India needs to place an order of minimum 3x6 +2 = 18+ 2 = 20 US2 in MII

Thus the initial orders is for a direct off the shelf to understand and get a feedback from IN. Once the feedback is established then a larger 16-28 orders for MII and 0-12 for exports can be planned or envisioned.

In terms of offsets at approximate cost of 100Mn USD, we are looking at USD 600Mn deal so at 30% we should have an offset of USD 180 Mn in the first phase

@Abingdonboy @Ind4Ever @anant_s

 

[ashok321]

http://idrw.org/why-parrikar-is-not-interested-in-making-shinmaywa-us-2i-in-india/

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Abe must show some leniency with Soryu SSK . hope India order 12 of 6 made in Japan and 6 in India . it also could be 3 in Japan and 3 in India with 3-4 options for follow on .

Why Soryu being denied to us ? We Indians fave the same enemy for which this subs are been built for

So which class of submarines is under consideration for p75i?? Type 216 or marlin class or the soryu class

Aren't you guys overestimating the Soryu? It delivers not more than a Type 212 and costs similar to an Yansen.

Those wanting a government to government on Soryu will be highly disappointed.

Even for Australia, HDW has more chances of grabbing the deal than Japan.

 

[Tshering22]

You are getting my point. Japan and Australia are already in discussions for Soryu submarine's . May be for more than 3-5 years now . At first Japan denied, Then agreed to make them in Japan alone . Later it was decided 40% of order will be made in Japan and rest in Australia. Now I guess both agreed to make all of them in Australia .

But Japan denied any sales to India even after High level discussion with PM and DM . Reason? Fearing that their technology and secrets about Soryu will be leaked to the Chinese. Our government is fire fighting this issue with Japan for many years now . That's a raises problem with TOT for which we have P75 I ..Helping our indigenous SSK program. And our orders are half the size of Australians. 12 and our is just 6 and may be 2-3 more .

So its gonna be very hard for us to select Soryu for P75I . We could go for German boats I guess. They are more open about TOT and we have 4 old boats which will be upgraded.So buying 6 more could make this number to 10 .

9 old + 3 new kilos

4 old + 6 new German boats P75 I

6 + 2/3 Scorpene sub's P75I

I think that's gonna be our SSK fleet.

Hope Abe and Modi gets into act and get Soryu inducted into our Navy. Massive fire power it would bring. But most importantly it will make China more insecure. That's where we both need to converge and help each others.

Japanese government has to think about it;they want to have a Pacific joint military partnership between Japan India and Australia and won't include us. This would be an oxymoron.

I have a feeling they will come around.

Why should we give tech secrets to the Chinese?

If they think Chinese don't know their secrets already, they have been taking the secrets directly from US databases through their cyber units. Why will they need to hack us to get Japanese secrets.

Aren't you guys overestimating the Soryu? It delivers not more than a Type 212 and costs similar to an Yansen.

Those wanting a government to government on Soryu will be highly disappointed.

Even for Australia, HDW has more chances of grabbing the deal than Japan.

And we don't even have the domestic capability for the Soryu class here yet. It is one of the most advanced submarines in the world.

Do you know what this would mean? Getting Japanese technology means we have gained ourselves a strong, third ally and a supplier beyond the conventional countries who usually supply the world.

It is as much a political matter as much as defence matter.

After this, what is the prospect of India and japan collaborating on fifth gen fighter aircraft development? @Nihonjin1051

Sir, IMHO that would be stretching it.

While I am sure @Nihonjin1051 san would be happier to see our ties soar to new heights, the Japanese ShinShin project is with USA. Japan has yet to slowly shed that level of political dependence on USA and therefore will take some time.

USA won't allow us to join in as Japan will have certain tech that US has already researched and won't be willing to part with them.

Mitsubishi joining us in AMCA would be nothing short of divine miracle if Parikkar or even Modiji himself could pull this off.

It seems one in a lakh chances though I am a strong supporter of an Indo-Japanese comprehensive joint military development agreement for many new platforms.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

And we don't even have the domestic capability for the Soryu class here yet. It is one of the most advanced submarines in the world.

Do you know what this would mean? Getting Japanese technology means we have gained ourselves a strong, third ally and a supplier beyond the conventional countries who usually supply the world.

It is as much a political matter as much as defence matter.

1. On our cpability=> Did I say so?
2Soryu being advanced => Agreed.
3. My simple point being, why should we pay more, if we get the same or better capability at a less price?

 

[Tshering22]

1. On our cpability=> Did I say so?
2Soryu being advanced => Agreed.
3. My simple point being, why should we pay more, if we get the same or better capability at a less price?

Your third point now depends on how well we can negotiate. If Japan can help us with our indigenous SSK capabilities then our money is well spent versus others who may give us submarines at a better price but not assist us with technology for future indigenous programmes. That's the point I wish to make.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Your third point now depends on how well we can negotiate. If Japan can help us with our indigenous SSK capabilities then our money is well spent versus others who may give us submarines at a better price but not assist us with technology for future indigenous programmes. That's the point I wish to make.

One thing, Japan itself depends upon foreign suppliers for many critical systems onboard Soryu, some of them include AIP, Torpedo ( has a very substantial US help) and sensor, again American help, and this doesn't impress me, as at the end we would be forced to take up third parties to get the technologies and pay a more higher price.

Again for the capabilities of Soryu, untill the Japanese develop the li ion batteries they intend to, and test them before we complete the competitive bidding, I don't see Japan making a cut.
Soryu might be very advanced, but I would like you to give ( 3 ) points , which Soryu scores better than a Type214, for which we should pay a price comparable to than of a SSN.