Whether or Not Pakistan Will Join the War in Yemen May Depend on a Group You’ve Probably Never Heard

[Solomon2]

As I have this old connection with her writings, I'd not say she is on anti-Pakistan "rampage", just different opinion.

I think we can both agree that woman has a temper.

 

[FaujHistorian]

I think we can both agree that woman has a temper.

hahah

people with strong conviction may sound angry as I do some times.

 

[Paksanity]

Wow, you guys have only insults and offer no specific criticisms to back up your opinions. So if it wasn't for @FaujHistorian her analysis would stand unchallenged.

And even FH's criticisms don't counter Fair's main points, imo: That the generals call the shots doesn't detract from her analysis and that JuD has little public support is irrelevant in a Pakistan where decision-making is like an iceberg: democracy is the visible part but nine-tenths of the process is under water and invisible. (Though I count the parliamentary debate as progress, I still consider it subordinate to the generals.)

I wouldn't go quite that far. Rather, she's forceful, even rude, and that could possibly blind her to some useful inputs. That only means her analyses would be incomplete, not fanciful.

Solomon, we live in Pakistan and know how this country works. There has been quite a few myths floating around which she has just tried to capitalize on. There is no real sense in what she is saying. She can sell that "analysis" to a western but not to us. Here are a few things revealing:

1. Generals don't call the shots everytime. They control only security policy, foreign policy and military intelligence ops.

2. Pak military is among the most tolerant and liberal in Pakistani society. Gone are the days when Mullahism was preached with Gen Zia. Minorities live happily inside cantonments where religious freedom is enjoyed and intolerance is curbed. Military areas are most preferred residences among non-Muslims.

3. Present Generals belong to generation of military officers who has fought and taken casualties from terrorist organizations. They have seen their kids and military comrades brutally dying at their hands. That is why you see them chasing all around country these terorrists. They will be last people supporting religious extremism. These Generals commanding field units against Mullahs in Swat operation.

4. Matter in hand is both military and foreign in nature. That makes it exclusively military domain. Decision to stay neutral is certainly by Pak Military not by politicians. Knowing our politicians too well, Pakistanis will tell you none of them including our PM would know what is the issue inYemen. Most of them won't even know where is Yemen located on face of earth! Only Foreign Office officials and military officers would put some little sense into him. He will be more than happy to oblige Saudis (he has billion of dollars of family wealth invested there) unless military stops him.

5. To find a way out I am very sure Military or Foreign office told him the best cover; the parliament! So he did.

6. Why military would say so? They have fought one of their toughest battles in this new kind of war. They know all too well what it takes to win such war (arguably only other country to have such rich experience would be US). Pak Mil knows too well that essential elements to win an insurgency war are not present in Yemen. It can't be won without a decade long engagement with thousands of casualties. Even then may or may not. We will be seen as foreign invaders, our allies can't take casualties and our enemy will be local, motivated for his cause battle hardened and is being backed by a large nation. Pak Army knows all too well that this conflict has to be avoided hence you haven't seen a single sign of inclination by them.

7. Pak Army lost its image to people of Pakistan towards end of Mushshraf Era. They have worked hard to rebuild it. People of Pakistan were against participating in this war. Now they are furious. You can not imagine the level of anger there is after the threat UAE hurled at us. Neither Military nor Govt wants to go against this public sentiment. Even religious parties who are traditionally staunch Saudi allies did not dare to speak against public sentiment. They voted in favour of neutrality. People of Pakistan want to build their country now. No conflicts they say.

8. People that she talks about are really no one. Nobody cares about them here. Look at the pictures and you will know how many of them are there! She is justtrying to cook up a story out of nothing to appease Indian anti Pak army sentiment. They will so easily believe her, Pakistanis will laugh!

Her story is far far from realities and she is aknown Pak Army hater. Don't fall pray to her made up stuff. She is not neutral.

 

[Solomon2]

hahah
people with strong conviction may sound angry as I do some times.

"Strong conviction"? I complained to her about the price of one of her books and choice of publisher and she cut off communication. That's not "strong conviction", that's pettiness.

 

[Kambojaric]

it was probably 3-4 years ago (at least).

As I have this old connection with her writings, I'd not say she is on anti-Pakistan "rampage", just different opinion.

I'll try to dig up some old email messages if possible. But as I said the stuff is many years old.

Thanks.

Well ive read part of one of her books recently in which she acknowledges the role Indian consulates in Jalalabad and Zahedan have in supporting terrorists in Pakistan but despite this keeps blaming everything wrong in the region on Pakistan (contradicting herself). Despite knowing the dirty two way proxy war that is going on between Pak and Ind she has sold herself by regurgitating the mainstream dichotomous narrative present in the West of naughty Pakistan vs peaceful bunny of a country India.

 

[ManavKalia]

This is where Ms. Fair got into conspiracy nutters company.

JuD is a small fry. It has a tiny following in the country of 200 million.

The real drivers of public opinion are the three largest parties. PML-N, PTI, and PPP.

They all have internal struggles at the moment but I see things are falling into place for PML-N, and PPP.

PTI most likely will remain anti-Saudi. The reason is that its head Imran is under the influence of a small group of retired Islamist generals.

IK in his mind feels that such Islamistt generals will put him in PM seat soon.

By mentioning this, I want to show Mr. Fair is living in la la land and Indians (the nationalist variety) tend to lap up anything related to Mullahs and Islamists.

Thank you



Average Pakistni?

Thinking about a Mullahtic Islamist group from central Punjab?

Not much. unless you are an average Pakistani from central Punjab. Then it depends on the fact as to which political group you belong to.

JuD is nothing compared to the power of big three: PPP, PML-N and PTI.

But if they are significant in Punjab, then that's where the political and military power is concentrated vs the rest of the regions of Pakistan.. Then they could still play an important role in pushing their agenda, isn't it?

Thanks..

 

[FaujHistorian]

But if they are significant in Punjab, then that's where the political and military power is concentrated vs the rest of the regions of Pakistan.. Then they could still play an important role in pushing their agenda, isn't it?

Thanks..

on the surface this may be the case.

BTW you know what the population of Punjab is?

Also please study the specific locations of Punjab that is heartland of Pak army
vs.
geography of Punjjab where JuD is popular.

Thank you

 

[SafShikan]

Wow, you guys have only insults and offer no specific criticisms to back up your opinions. So if it wasn't for @FaujHistorian her analysis would stand unchallenged.

And even FH's criticisms don't counter Fair's main points, imo: That the generals call the shots doesn't detract from her analysis and that JuD has little public support is irrelevant in a Pakistan where decision-making is like an iceberg: democracy is the visible part but nine-tenths of the process is under water and invisible. (Though I count the parliamentary debate as progress, I still consider it subordinate to the generals.)

I wouldn't go quite that far. Rather, she's forceful, even rude, and that could possibly blind her to some useful inputs. That only means her analyses would be incomplete, not fanciful.

Generals are actually subordinated to the parliament...our politicians made you feel otherwise #FACT

Secondly, a decision/opinion made on incomplete information is of no use at all...for example what is the outcome of US invasion if North Korea does not have any mean to hurt USA or its allies ?

 

[ManavKalia]

This is where Ms. Fair got into conspiracy nutters company.

JuD is a small fry. It has a tiny following in the country of 200 million.

The real drivers of public opinion are the three largest parties. PML-N, PTI, and PPP.

They all have internal struggles at the moment but I see things are falling into place for PML-N, and PPP.

PTI most likely will remain anti-Saudi. The reason is that its head Imran is under the influence of a small group of retired Islamist generals.

IK in his mind feels that such Islamistt generals will put him in PM seat soon.

By mentioning this, I want to show Mr. Fair is living in la la land and Indians (the nationalist variety) tend to lap up anything related to Mullahs and Islamists.

Thank you



Average Pakistni?

Thinking about a Mullahtic Islamist group from central Punjab?

Not much. unless you are an average Pakistani from central Punjab. Then it depends on the fact as to which political group you belong to.

JuD is nothing compared to the power of big three: PPP, PML-N and PTI.

But if they are significant in Punjab, then that's where the political and military power is concentrated vs the rest of the regions of Pakistan.. Then they could still play an important role in pushing their agenda

on the surface this may be the case.

BTW you know what the population of Punjab is?

Also please study the specific locations of Punjab that is heartland of Pak army
vs.
geography of Punjjab where JuD is popular.

Thank you

I know that Punjab has more than half of Pakistan's population, and has a very important role in it's army and politics.. I don't know much about JuD..

So you're saying that JuD is only popular in regions other than the power centers in Punjab?

 

[FaujHistorian]

. I don't know much about JuD..
?

This is why Ms. Fair ended up weaving conspiracy theories.

.

So you're saying that JuD is only popular in regions other than the power centers in Punjab?

It is a small fry. Ms. Fair is giving it too much credit or power.

 

[Zhukov]

Whole this waste of time can be summarized as "Bullcrap"
JUD is nothing. Nobody cares what they think or say exept a niche of there netwrok and followers. It is run not by public support but by foreign funding from the same GCC and everyone know them as Saudi proxy.
See the thing is Democracy is freedom for all. It does not mean freedom is only for moderates and not for rightists.
Bullcrap and waste of time. Dont bother reading

 

[ManavKalia]

This is why Ms. Fair ended up weaving conspiracy theories.

It is a small fry. Ms. Fair is giving it too much credit or power.

I can understand..

 

[Jungibaaz]

Useless articles breed useless discussions.

Take the filthy ramblings of this deranged she cleric to somewhere where they may hold any value.
Not here, thank you, very much.