War is Coming: US running a de-fang operation

[TheImmortal]

Don't know what u're thinking about Iran's economy/refineries in this calculus. They will be the first to be hit by the US and Arabs if Iran uses this 'Trump Card'.

Iran can barely sustain escalation and is handcuffed due to failing economy. Hitting any high value oil target will instantly draw unprecented brutal response to Iran and the world will ensure that Iran's ability to sabotage world's economy is neutralized before any significant damage is done (I will question that ability too).

Why would the 'world' let Iran play with its economy? Why would Iran try to drag the 'world' in this mess? That would be a deadly blunder on Iran's part. No country is ready to tolerate it's economic interests being sabotaged just because Iran lost a general.

Iran is highly unlikely to do such a blunder. Best bet is too exhaust all efforts to keep response in the sub conventional domain and prevent the US from declaring all out conventional war on Iran. That is Iran's biggest challenge now. To construct a response that is effective but at the same time doesn't let the US escalate further.

First of all, Iran has strategic oil reserves like the US. So it’s military will continue functioning. And hitting Iranian oil doesn’t do much to Iran that is barely exporting any to begin with. When war starts US will hit Iranian refineries either way, even right now War hawks are saying to do it to put pressure on Iran in peace time.

Also good luck neutralizing Iran’s ability to fire ballistic missiles and anti ship cruise missiles of which the number exceeds 50K.

In 2006 with 24/7 air support of south Lebanon (an area the size of Rhode Island) Israel could not stop the 150+ daily rocket attacks hitting Israel for a month straight.

But I am supposed to believe that US will be able to find and destroy BMs in a country the size of Iran? Keep dreaming. And no one said Iran using the Samson option to avenge Solemani. I was saying DURING all out war.

All bets are off during war, Iran is not going to hold back because the US is not going to hold back on Iran. So might as well throw your best punches before a U.N. ceasefire is agreed to.

 

[OldTwilight]

We should have nukes

 

[Taimoor Khan]

The reality of the situation is that the U.S has been frustrated

Apart from the Arab lapdogs

The U.S has spent trillions trying to get control of Afghanistan and Iraq only to fail

Afghanistan is a failed regime and the Taliban keep going and expanding their control, making 2 decades of U S expenditure in lives and treasure almost pointless


In Iraq with a Shia majority, U.S influence has just waned and reduced with Iran and Iranian backed forces taking center ground

In Syria, the U.S again has been left frustrated and sidelined with other states including Iran taking center ground

The U.Ss assassination of solemani was an act of war
But regardless of the stupid idiots trying to goad or insult Iran into making a mistake

The best response would be to continue to consolidate control and expand Iranian influence and push the U.S gradually out
THIS is what the U.S feared


Just as you said, the U.S is rolling its dice and trying to take out Iranian assets
Knowing that Iran has no easy targets

Iran needs to hit back, but the best revenge will be to achieve solemanis task

The U.S is trying to force Iran's hand

Problem with Persians in general is that they are a loud mouth bunch. Pakistan has done much worse things against super powers and now to America in Afghanistan yet we get away with it because we never boost and do things discreetly.

Persians have put themselves on tight corner with their loose talk.

 

[Blue In Green]

We should have nukes

You've always been right about this, I remember you were advocating for an Iranian nuclear arsenal and many members here berated you and talked down to you because of it yet here we are.

 

[Aramagedon]

Problem with Persians in general is that they are a loud mouth bunch. Pakistan has done much worse things against super powers and now to America in Afghanistan yet we get away with it because we never boost and do things discreetly.

Persians have put themselves on tight corner with their loose talk.

Pi$$ off

 

[TheImmortal]

Are you hoping this would be the case? Or do you have some news that confirms this?

You will have your answer in 2 weeks when Iran announces next steps.

Death of Solemani and parliamentary elections in Feb mean negotiations are done. In Feb is deadline for FATFA adoption, if Iran does not adopt FATFA it will be cut off from all financial transactions with its remaining allies (China, Russia, Turkey, etc). So again nuclear deal is useless if Iran doesn’t adopt FATFA.

 

[Blue In Green]

Problem with Persians in general is that they are a loud mouth bunch. Pakistan has done much worse things against super powers and now to America in Afghanistan yet we get away with it because we never boost and do things discreetly.

Persians have put themselves on tight corner with their loose talk.

The Iranians have yet to respond to this attack and will most likely respond in a way that will leave Americans embarrassed although that is yet to be seen.

A key thing PDF members need to take away from this is that Iran is in no way, shape or form afraid of a shooting-war with the United States military. This misconception of Iranian weakness is not a smart position to take. Iran can and will let loose missiles from dusk till dawn for however long it takes. It will be war at that point so all bets are off. You could probably count on Hezbollah and many other militia groups killing Americans wherever they can get to them. Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah could also have another go at each other as well since there would general mayhem going on, why not exploit the fog of war to your benefit.

The Iraqi parliamentary vote next week as well as Iranian decision to respond to this attack is yet to be determined, name calling the 'Persians' as loudmouths won't do your stance any good other than you coming off as a know it all prick.

 

[Blue In Green]

You will have your answer in 2 weeks when Iran announces next steps.

Death of Solemani and parliamentary elections in Feb mean negotiations are done. In Feb is deadline for FATFA adoption, if Iran does not adopt FATFA it will be cut off from all financial transactions with its remaining allies (China, Russia, Turkey, etc). So again nuclear deal is useless if Iran doesn’t adopt FATFA.

I'm assuming you're saying that Iran will go for a nuclear weapon from a logical stand-point since any other avenue of retaliation will only beget more escalation from the United States and building a bomb carries a higher chance of reestablishing deterrence.

Funny lol, Israel and America would have to attack Iranian soil if that were to be the course of action Iran does turn out to take in the end. So it seems we're gonna see which side was telling the truth about its resolve and capabilities after-all.

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran won't fight against USA face to face, they might do something via their supported forces. Trump said 'Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!', this claim tells a lot.

Iran hasn’t started a war in 200 years. So what the orange Cheeto says is a joke.

China hasn’t won a war since forever. But I doubt anyone would say China is a pushover today.

I'm assuming you're saying that Iran will go for a nuclear weapon from a logical stand-point since any other avenue of retaliation will only beget more escalation from the United States and building a bomb carries a higher chance of reestablishing deterrence.

Funny lol, Israel and America would have to attack Iranian soil if that were to be the course of action Iran does turn out to take in the end. So it seems we're gonna see which side was telling the truth about its resolve and capabilities after-all.

The decision to build or not to build. Has already been made.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1213243677612691456

 

[Blue In Green]

Iran hasn’t started a war in 200 years. So what the orange Cheeto says is a joke.

China hasn’t won a war since forever. But I doubt anyone would say China is a pushover today.



The decision to build or not to build. Has already been made.

Jesus, so this event was indeed that serious huh?

Man...what a time to be alive.

 

[Arminkh]

You will have your answer in 2 weeks when Iran announces next steps.

Death of Solemani and parliamentary elections in Feb mean negotiations are done. In Feb is deadline for FATFA adoption, if Iran does not adopt FATFA it will be cut off from all financial transactions with its remaining allies (China, Russia, Turkey, etc). So again nuclear deal is useless if Iran doesn’t adopt FATFA.

Maybe, but the fact that Iran has not done any tests in the central desert is not the nuclear deal. It is, at least on surface, the unethical aspects of it.

On the other hands, I don't see how it is relevant to this situation. US didn't demote its military down to the level of terrorists because it thought Iran is militarily weak. On the contrary it did it because it knows a war with Iran is no longer a viable option otherwise it had the best excuse to hit Iran after the drone incident or the attack on KSA refineries. Iran has already reached deterrence. Why would it need an atomic bomb and losing the world's public opinion by building it?

 

[Blue In Green]

Maybe, but the fact that Iran has not done any tests in the central desert is not the nuclear deal. It is, at least on surface, the unethical aspects of it.

On the other hands, I don't see how it is relevant to this situation. US didn't demote its military down to the level of terrorists because it thought Iran is militarily weak. On the contrary it did it because it knows a war with Iran is no longer a viable option otherwise it had the best excuse to hit Iran after the drone incident or the attack on KSA refineries. Iran has already reached deterrence. Why would it need an atomic bomb and losing the world's public opinion by building it?

The logical rebuttal to this would then why would the United States kill Soleimani, Muhandis and other high ranking officials all in one go?

I agree that America most likely doesn't want a full-scale war as it would ruin their plans or at least their plans to mitigate China's expansion into the South China Sea but a limited conflict, one that can very well start given this pretext is still quite a feasible eventuality.

 

[TheImmortal]

Maybe, but the fact that Iran has not done any tests in the central desert is not the nuclear deal. It is, at least on surface, the unethical aspects of it.

On the other hands, I don't see how it is relevant to this situation. US didn't demote its military down to the level of terrorists because it thought Iran is militarily weak. On the contrary it did it because it knows a war with Iran is no longer a viable option otherwise it had the best excuse to hit Iran after the drone incident or the attack on KSA refineries. Iran has already reached deterrence. Why would it need an atomic bomb and losing the world's public opinion by building it?

No, US is finally decided to go kinetic after years of focusing on other objectives (containment, Iraq war, ISIs, Syria civil war).

These attacks will not stop not today not tomorrow not next year. If you kill Solemani Iran’s #2 and all you get is a slap on wrist. That in military world is called A BARGAIN DEAL.

So your thinking is completely wrong here. US has decided to test Iranian bravado. If you do not stop it here, there will be an attempt on Rahbar’s life via CIA assets. I can promise you it. I said it a few weeks ago and no one believed me.

Rahbar chaired the meeting for a reason. What was agreed to in that room, was bullshit. Not everyone on the SNSC can be trusted (see Rouhani). So the real discussions took place after the fact between Rahbar and his most trusted loyalists.

In 2008 Iran trying to build a bomb was too obvious with IR-1. But with IR-6 it can do with 100 centrifuges what it would cost using 2500 IR-1 centrifuges. And if next gen Iran centrifuges are ready they can do it even better.

The Shiite nuclear umbrella needs to rise. It will cover from Iran to Lebanon to Yemen. If Iran had nuclear bomb, US would never target Solemani to begin with.

 

[TheImmortal]

@TheImmortal, hey, don't bite everyone like a mad dog, and your claims are not worth for a reply.

Fact is China hasn’t won a war in centuries and used to be Japan’s bitch when Japan invaded routinely.

Past results don’t equal future results. So don’t quote a man who didn’t even know who Solemani was 4 years ago. Not exactly a source of geopolitical wisdom.

 

[Arminkh]

The logical rebuttal to this would then why would the United States kill Soleimani, Muhandis and other high ranking officials all in one go?

I agree that America most likely doesn't want a full-scale war as it would ruin their plans or at least their plans to mitigate China's expansion into the South China Sea but a limited conflict, one that can very well start given this pretext is still quite a feasible eventuality.

I don't think you should seek any rational in Trump's decisions. It was his decision alone to do this. Almohandes was not the target. He was just in the wrong place in the wrong time. He was collateral damage. Which one of his other decisions have been rational so far or has been following a plan?