Visualize Bangladesh in event of escalated regional military complications

[eastwatch]

So according to you Indian support just sprang up at the last minute to take the credit from Mukti bhahini? Can you give me one source which proves your biased and baseless point?

Your troops only came in when our civilian troops, Mukti Bahini, became quite capable and was making win after win. In fact, we needed arms and not Indian soldiers. Do you think your cowardice troops could have come alone to our land without us giving them support? We just used India for our benefit, that's all.

It could have been a slaughter house more than the 3rd Battle of Panipath if your troops had ventured alone. You must be ignorant about our people's capabilty and mental strength.

 

[thebrownguy]

Your troops only came in when our civilian troops, Mukti Bahini, became quite capable and was making win after win. In fact, we needed arms and not Indian soldiers. Do you think your cowardice troops could have come alone to our land without us giving them support? We just used India for our benefit, that's all.

It could have been a slaughter house more than the 3rd Battle of Panipath if your troops had ventured alone. You must be ignorant about our people's capabilty and mental strength.

I can reply to you just like you did, in a disrespectful manner too. But then I want maintain the difference.
Your attitude to a country and its soldiers which supported the struggle for your very existence is shameful.
If Mukti Bahini was so effective why was it unable to stop the large scale genocide? Why were the people flocking towards Indian borders?
We don't expect you to be grateful for the help my friend, but unexplained hate and display of cheap attitude for no clear reason is just a bit too much to take.
TKc

 

[Straight]

.....India will make use of BD skies, with or without BD consent.

But BD being the good buddies that they are, will oblige, willfully.

Hmm….a fascist mindset—isn’t it ?

1. Why do you like to sacrifice your excellent developments at the altar of fascism—only to turn into a fascist ‘super-power’ ? Do the world has any use for them any further ? Did not the past history give all enough lesson ? Is it the reason why you only support fascist AL in Bangladesh ? Is it the cause why neighboring people of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal & China are so irritated of India ?

2. If you forcibly use Bangladesh sky, and—in response and not obliging India a bit—its people willingly let China to use its land (say, only Cox’s Bazar Airport that is being revamped to become a Forward Air Base, and Water (St. Martins area in Bay of Bengal), how healthy that will be to you ?

3. Will you be able to draw the large neighboring people closer with this kind of fascist talking--even if India becomes super-power of some sort---while China with much more development trying to remain modest ?

Perhaps, any saner Indian member, if any, can throw light on above better.

 

[Skies]

if a real war situation arises, IMO India will make use of BD skies, with or without BD consent.

BTW, I think if IAF will use BD skies without our consent and if AL will in power, then our ministers will say that it's mistake by IA as we have long boundary. Also I doubt that how much any BD govt, especially, AL govt will protest?

 

[Skies]

if a real war situation arises, IMO India will make use of BD skies, with or without BD consent.

After reading this above line, I've a question to BD mates:


# If one day India will become a big superpower, then will BD be safe or actual independent?

 

[Straight]

I can reply to you just like you did, in a disrespectful manner too. But then I want maintain the difference.
Your attitude to a country and its soldiers which supported the struggle for your very existence is shameful.
If Mukti Bahini was so effective why was it unable to stop the large scale genocide? Why were the people flocking towards Indian borders?
We don't expect you to be grateful for the help my friend, but unexplained hate and display of cheap attitude for no clear reason is just a bit too much to take.
TKc

Please! Please!! Don’t be so angry, thebrownguy. eastwatch has truth in his post.

We are grateful to India, and we do appreciate your support for those 10 months of 1971, but that do not absolve us to be stricken by grief for the lots you did later to us over years.

We knew from the very beginning that your that support too was in your interest mainly,---larger than what it meant to us. But, we needed the arms, we were undone.

Large scale genocide occurred on 25th March 71 night at Dhaka, and while other cities’ defense by assorted people—mostly with bamboo sticks and primitive weapons (non-firing)---were being crushed till end of April 71. The exodus of several millions Bangladeshis to India mostly occurred over that period. Mukti Bahini was not even formed at that time.

Mukti Bahini (armed & trained by India) was not formed before the end April 1971—as India Govt. decided to extend support through arms and training then. (Ref: Late Lt. Gen [R] JFR Jacob’s speech during his last visit to Dhaka in March 2008)

I noted that eastwatch called your forces ‘cowardice’. He might be referring to the fact that Gen Manekshaw’s order was to capture only Khulna and Chittagong—in the south—first, and then to proceed to Dhaka in steps. This was not liked by those Mukti Bahinis who knew/suspected so because that would prolong the war and thus, sufferings of the people. By that time, Mukti Bahinis have cleared all the rural areas, though. How did I now ? Oh! I was one of them.

However, the valiant Mukti Bahini leader Abdul Quader Siddiqui convinced Indian Army officers that his area of operation (Tangail : 80 km from Dhaka in the south-west) is already been freed, and the terrain is perfect for Indian paratroopers to arrive there with all transports & equipments without any hindrance to proceed to Dhaka.

That prompted Gen Jacob to investigate, and to order a Mountain Division (somewhere in NE) to drop personnel / transports / equipments immediately, and in a day or two he was at Mirpur in the suburb of the-then-Dhaka. The rest is history. (Ref: again Gen Jacob at Dhaka in 2008)

Let us not dwell in the past too long by forgetting the present, and particularly this future-oriented thread.

 

[leonblack08]

BTW, I think if IAF will use BD skies without our consent and if AL will in power, then our ministers will say that it's mistake by IA as we have long boundary. Also I doubt that how much any BD govt, especially, AL govt will protest?

Don't bring up politics every single time.Even during BNP rule,there were intrusion by IAF into BD airspace.There were protest in parliament by BNP Govt.,but that's it.
We couldn't do more because we did not have proper warning system and equally good interceptors.No wonder they still intrude sometimes.


So unless we improve our early Warning system and buy able interceptors/Fighters,they will be intruding our airspace.
We need to make one or two forced landings to bring things in order,and for that we have to organize ourselves first.


--A bit off topic but from my observation I have seen you posting biased political posts.Kindly don't turn every single matter into AL-BNP contest.

Even during BNP rule we saw BSF killing Bangladeshis,but them being a right wing party was as unsuccessful and ineffective as AL at stopping BSF.

So it is a national problem,it isn't right to single out a certain party only because you don't follow it.And this is not a political forum but a defence forum.But nowadays all I find is politics.

 

[Skies]

Don't bring up politics every single time.

I said that because I heard to say Dipu Moni that, "we have shared long boundary, so BSF killing are discrete incidents in most of times". So quoting and bringing AL is not irreverent but it's true that political discussion should not be in every thread.

--A bit off topic but from my observation I have seen you posting biased political posts.

One should not have any doubt that I'm a biased anti-AL man (also I do not have sympathy for other parties). And I've enough reason for being anti-AL and all most every time whenever I'd said against AL then I'd showed proper reasons against AL. So I'm biased with proper reason. To me there is no meaning to be neutral to AL since I do not like their ideology. But if they do some well economical development then I will say well done. But to me to be neutral is a fake idea sometimes. There is nothing to be neutral in real, cos good people at least support the truth.

So it is a national problem,it isn't right to single out a certain party only because you don't follow it.

It's true that it's a problem between two nations but AL says that India is our friend or do not admit India's fault even after BSF kill our people but other parties do not say like AL.

And this is not a political forum but a defence forum.But nowadays all I find is politics.

It's not a big problem if we discuss about politics, and also how much new BD-defence news we get to discuss? Once I asked that - do we need to buy some UAV for patrol purpose, but no one answered. Look at Indian section, everyday there is new news!

Mod can think to change the name of this section from "Bangladesh Defence" to "Bangladesh Defence and strategy/politics".

 

[leonblack08]

To few of us, the exalted lot of armchair analysts in PDF, China-India possible conflict is a serious defense issue, therefore— to determine whether it will occur or not—why not we apply the Murphy’s Law—devised by a USAF Captain—necessarily another defense personnel—at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949 while working on Air Force Project MX981, designed to see how much sudden deceleration a person can stand in a crash. Some mortals say, though, actually what he did was take an old law that had been around for years in a more basic form and give it a name.

Aerospace manufacturers picked it up and used it widely in their ads during the next few months, and soon it was being quoted hilariously in many news and magazine articles, and was born the Murphy's Law : "If anything can go wrong, it will". Between China and India many things can go wrong in reality—isn’t it ?

To Bangladeshis, this issue is not a game of killing frogs by over-excited stone-wielding juveniles of the global stage but a matter involving deaths or atleast of deadly issues to us. We just can not be complacent by saying “We will remain neutral—as Switzerland does or did”. We are stronger than Switzerland in worldy terms only in 2 counts : we are 130,000 sq. km + 160 m ; and Switzerland is 40,000 sq.km. + 6 m. But, other than these, what luxury we posses to think so simply ?

Therefore, let us see whether such a war, if at all happens, will Bangladesh be subjected to following dilemas:

1. Will India ask for passage to Bangladesh—in return of what they assisted for in 10 months of 1971 and later to AL ?

2. Will China ask for the same—irrespective of India asked or not—if they can attain a chasing spree over IA within few days/weeks of war ?

In the event of India-China war:

Bangladesh will most probably remain neutral and not offer assistance to any party.As siding with any one party will bring misfortune to millions of Bangladeshis.

But it is highly unlikely that any of these Giants will let BD be neutral.So to remain neutral we need a strong military to act as a deterrent.Now this is my opinion based on the following Hypothetical scenario:

China invades and cuts Chicken corridor and thus Indian entrance to NE.China also establishes total air superiority on NE India.Now India is trying to regain control.

If India tries to regain control of NE by making a transit through BD forcefully,then BD being neutral and with a small army but packing enough punch will force India to rethink its strategy of opening up a new front or using BD air space illegally and forcefully.
So the bottom line from my point of view is,Bangladesh needs a strong military to stay neutral.Otherwise we will just be pushed over by Indian might no matter whether AL or BNP is in power.

On the other hand,BD staying neutral gives China an automatic advantage.So they shouldn't asking for anything more.Because they don't need our help once they have control over NE India.They might try to intrude and forcefully enter our air space,so we have to do the same drill with them too.Forcing any intruding fighters to land immediately or go back to LOC.

Again the same Pre condition:We need a Strong military.

3. Will Bangladesh see—in the doldrums of such a war—an opportunity of crashing those dams/barrages India built that are robbing its share of water and again in monsoon, causing floods ? What about disputed border land ?

That dream is will be Foolish.We have to bear in mind,India and China are both Nuke Powers.So any serious conflict between the two minght very well end up in a stalemate or a forced peace treaty by Uncle Sam.So India will still be a powerful enough force to fend us off.

Also,its not just Farakka,but its also many more diversion projects above Farakka that is harming us.And we can not strike that deep into India.

Since we are no where near to the capability of taking on and bombing their dams,so it will be a suicidal dream.

4. Will Chinese Navy require to arrive in Bay of Bengal and ask Port or any other facilities to Bangladesh ?

I don't think so.Because China is already using Burmese ports in Sitwee,if I am not mistaken.They have a listening post around that area too.

And Chittagong port is well within Indian Missile range,Chinese won't do the mistake of putting their ships over there.

5. Will such a war cause hindrance to our import / export affecting all walks of mass ?

Yes.

Import from India and also export to NE will fall.This is bad for us because we will probably have a big market by the time this hypothetical war happens.So a big loss for our exporters.

6. Will India work harder to keep AL in the helm of Bangladesh—no matter how people of the land judge them—in all the years to come considering only grateful AL will forget all comparative analysis on Bangldesh’s interest, and will assist India come what may ?

As I said earlier,if we don't have a strong military,then it won't matter who's in power.India won't care about AL or BNP if it decides to open a new front through BD.

Personally I don't think BNP is any different than AL when it comes to selling country's interest.In fact in some cases they exceeded AL doing chamchagiri.

But India will want to have AL in power no doubt,because it gives them sense of security.

7. This war in all probalities will not obliterate any of China and India from the atlas, and both will one day revive. Who will re-appear stronger and dominating in the region and still will remain friendly to us?

If it turns into a nuclear war,then the one to strike early and annihilate enemy establishment and nukes will emerge victorious.

But we have to keep in mind that there will be catastrophic losses to both sides.
Even the apparently losing side may have some tricks under the sleeve and bring the war to level pegging.

And it is because of this,that I think there will not really be a war.But if it really happens it will be short,deadly and devastating.

8. Whatever is the out come in #7 above, will both or any will return to Bangladesh with vendetta for denying the passage, if so is done by Bangladesh ? What about for destroying any dam / barrage &/or re-taking disputed border land ?

For staying Neutral,

We might face some wrath,but we will be right on the eyes of Global Powers.We will have the sympathy,if attacked.That matters because the attacking country will already suffer from the war,and together with possible embargo,it might not risk going to total chaos.

But then again,we might not face any wrath,because we were not supporting the losing party.

In case of destroying dam:

Expect to be doomed by the victor.

9. Keeping in mind all the economic / technical / technological assistances we enjoyed from both so far, and the relative strength and mindset each posses to do further in future, whom should we assist / support if needs arrive ?

Tough question.

Culturally and economically India is closer.On the other hand,technologically,economically China is closer.

Supporting any one will anger the other and we will be sending invitation to some Cruise Missiles to visit Dhaka.

In my opinion,we should see whether the party we will be supporting can protect us from the other and also if supporting them is in best interest of Bangladesh.

10. Who proved so far its sincere intent to become our ‘Friend in need’ ?

Undoubtedly China.No explanation needed.

11. Who interfered so far lesser or nil in our internal matters by lending support to only one specific political party or otherwise ?

India off course interfered,this is the main reason behind deterioration of Indo-BD realtion.

12. If pressurized by any, how do we react to preserve our interest in all spheres ?

Seek help from third party perhaps...most probably US.Considering present US presence regarding everything in BD,from politics to defence .But in the long term this will be fatal for us.



P.S. : All the above replies are my opinion,so not all are necessarily right.

 

[leonblack08]

It's not a big problem if we discuss about politics, and also how much new BD-defence news we get to discuss? Once I asked that - do we need to buy some UAV for patrol purpose, but no one answered. Look at Indian section, everyday there is new news!

Mod can think to change the name of this section from "Bangladesh Defence" to "Bangladesh Defence and strategy/politics".

That's because most people are busy discussing politics and promoting a political party, rather than defence.


And regarding your UAV question,off course we need UAVs to patrol and perhaps spy on enemy.
As far as I know,even the Burmese have acquired some UAVs.I am guessing,they got through their Israeli link.

If MODs change the name,then discussing politics will be justified.

 

[thebrownguy]

Please! Please!! Don’t be so angry, thebrownguy. eastwatch has truth in his post.

We are grateful to India, and we do appreciate your support for those 10 months of 1971, but that do not absolve us to be stricken by grief for the lots you did later to us over years.

We knew from the very beginning that your that support too was in your interest mainly,---larger than what it meant to us. But, we needed the arms, we were undone.

Large scale genocide occurred on 25th March 71 night at Dhaka, and while other cities’ defense by assorted people—mostly with bamboo sticks and primitive weapons (non-firing)---were being crushed till end of April 71. The exodus of several millions Bangladeshis to India mostly occurred over that period. Mukti Bahini was not even formed at that time.

Mukti Bahini (armed & trained by India) was not formed before the end April 1971—as India Govt. decided to extend support through arms and training then. (Ref: Late Lt. Gen [R] JFR Jacob’s speech during his last visit to Dhaka in March 2008)

I noted that eastwatch called your forces ‘cowardice’. He might be referring to the fact that Gen Manekshaw’s order was to capture only Khulna and Chittagong—in the south—first, and then to proceed to Dhaka in steps. This was not liked by those Mukti Bahinis who knew/suspected so because that would prolong the war and thus, sufferings of the people. By that time, Mukti Bahinis have cleared all the rural areas, though. How did I now ? Oh! I was one of them.

However, the valiant Mukti Bahini leader Abdul Quader Siddiqui convinced Indian Army officers that his area of operation (Tangail : 80 km from Dhaka in the south-west) is already been freed, and the terrain is perfect for Indian paratroopers to arrive there with all transports & equipments without any hindrance to proceed to Dhaka.

That prompted Gen Jacob to investigate, and to order a Mountain Division (somewhere in NE) to drop personnel / transports / equipments immediately, and in a day or two he was at Mirpur in the suburb of the-then-Dhaka. The rest is history. (Ref: again Gen Jacob at Dhaka in 2008)

Let us not dwell in the past too long by forgetting the present, and particularly this future-oriented thread.

Dear sir,
I deeply appreciate your informative reply. Thank you. Can you please elaborate the second sentence your reply, where you mentioned about the years and years of grief caused by us.
Regards

 

[Straight]

In the event of India-China war:
........But it is highly unlikely that any of these Giants will let BD be neutral.So to remain neutral we need a strong military to act as a deterrent.

......P.S. : All the above replies are my opinion,so not all are necessarily right.

......But it is highly unlikely that any of these Giants will let BD be neutral.So to remain neutral we need a strong military to act as a deterrent. Perhaps, you can not be more correct.

.........P.S. : All the above replies are my opinion, so not all are necessarily right. Yet most will be agreed by many. Interestingly true that China will not demand much of Bangladesh nor perhaps it will require Ctg Port to use.

However, do you feel that a CN-IN conflict will necessarily go nuclear ? China and India together comprise 40% of humanity. Any nuke that will hit India’s upper mainland, will generate radio-active materials that will wash down to Bangladesh through rivers. So, that 40% will now expand further. Pakistan, Nepal & Sri Lanka also very likely will not be spared.

On the other hand, peace cannot be taken for granted among these 2 ambitious countries with fastest growing militaries of the world. The chance for these two countries to develop peacefully and fulfill their national interests without entering into competition is getting smaller due to internal social pressures and rising nationalism. Only solace is that both have matured leaderships at the respective helms, and China so far has not shown any imperialistic attitude yet.

In view of above, to the very worst, perhaps a ‘limited’ war is in order to be thought as ‘probable'. I will appreciate your further comment after you give the point a re-thinking.

As regards to dams/barrages—by one-sided plan and implementation by India on commonly shared rivers—that are inflicting heavy distress to Bangladesh is one of the formidable stumbling blocks to normalize relationship between India and Bangladesh. You rightly think that we should not be tempted to undertake any opportunistic deft move. But how do you see that we can get rid of that strangulation ever ?

 

[Straight]

Dear sir,
I deeply appreciate your informative reply. Thank you. Can you please elaborate the second sentence your reply, where you mentioned about the years and years of grief caused by us.
Regards

Thank you, too.

To elaborate: Grievances that have spoilt the IN-BD relationship are mostly due to (1) Hegemonic interference in internal matters; (2) Dams/barrages on commonly shared rivers without considering the downstream plight; (3) BSF excesses; (4) Some trade barriers ; (5) One-eyed leniency & support to one partcular political party etc.

You see that above acts are by your various Govts. (politicians) in different periods and the (faceless, nameless) bureaucracy---not by Indian people---most of whom might not be even aware of the implementation of these.

In my every trip to India I found succeedingly improved attitudes of your people---out of those 2 are quite praise-worthy : (1) India is for Indians--no discrimination on the basis of religion, sect, language etc.; (2) Individual Entrepreneurship: Every one trying to do something better & beneficial. I am impressed everytime I had been in India. However, always grief-stricken for above. I do not know how solution will arrive, and how will you make your Govt. and bureaucracy as good as your people.

 

[toxic_pus]

Now this is my opinion based on the following Hypothetical scenario:

China invades and cuts Chicken corridor and thus Indian entrance to NE.China also establishes total air superiority on NE India.Now India is trying to regain control.

Flights of fancy.

It appears that for the Chinese, cutting the chicken neck off is like snatching candy from a 2 year old kid. Its like vini, vidi, vici for the Chinese.

Your entire hypothetical situation where BD would become important to India is one giant non-sequitur. It arises from a premise that China in recent or distant future will be able to pull something that they couldn’t even in 1962 when Indian Army was in complete disarray, and was essentially fighting AK-47 clones(?) with .303 bolt action rifles. Can you explain how would China completely run down NE and cut off the chicken neck at Shiliguri. Then explain how would China maintain an overstretched supply line near the chicken neck. Once you have done that, we can then begin to deliberate on BD's role in India's fight 'to regain control'.


I understand that it is nice to feel important every once in a while. But this illusion of grandeur is beyond ridiculous.

 

[fallstuff]

Hmm….a fascist mindset—isn’t it ?

1. Why do you like to sacrifice your excellent developments at the altar of fascism—only to turn into a fascist ‘super-power’ ? Do the world has any use for them any further ? Did not the past history give all enough lesson ? Is it the reason why you only support fascist AL in Bangladesh ? Is it the cause why neighboring people of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal & China are so irritated of India ?

2. If you forcibly use Bangladesh sky, and—in response and not obliging India a bit—its people willingly let China to use its land (say, only Cox’s Bazar Airport that is being revamped to become a Forward Air Base, and Water (St. Martins area in Bay of Bengal), how healthy that will be to you ?

3. Will you be able to draw the large neighboring people closer with this kind of fascist talking--even if India becomes super-power of some sort---while China with much more development trying to remain modest ?

Perhaps, any saner Indian member, if any, can throw light on above better.

Don't you worry about Indian planes using BD skies. No point of shooting AAA or SAM. They have a history of falling apart in a clear blue sky !!

Just watch out for falling planes and duck !