US blocked transfer of Jordanian F-16s to Pakistan

[khanasifm]

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a147543.pdf

 

[denel]

The Israelis are strategic allies with India. Do you think they will sell them to us? Oh they are already investigating a case where some Israeli technology made its way to Pakistan via a Turkish firm. Probably that was the refuelling trucks ordered from Turkey in Musharraf era. There was a thread on that here
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/israel-sells-pakistan-military-equipment.156739/

That is not true.
If Pakistan establishes ties with Isreal there is no question that help wont be forthcoming. Give credit to Musharaff who was close to getting this done. I find it silly, essentially no reason why it is not being done given the Arabs are already in alliance with Isreal anyway.
Isreal never had any concerns with Pakistan.

The Pak government will never order them as they have a clause in their passports to satisfy the Arab world to not recognise the State of Israel. Not that it benefits them but that's the way some things are...

I think time to point the middle finger. Arab countries already established direct and indirect relations for a long time. It is just a bogus excuse. Arabs never cared for Pakistan except as a source of cheap labour or to have good time.

 

[Advocate Pakistan]

That is not true.
If Pakistan establishes ties with Isreal there is no question that help wont be forthcoming. Give credit to Musharaff who was close to getting this done. I find it silly, essentially no reason why it is not being done given the Arabs are already in alliance with Isreal anyway.
Isreal never had any concerns with Pakistan.


I think time to point the middle finger. Arab countries already established direct and indirect relations for a long time. It is just a bogus excuse. Arabs never cared for Pakistan except as a source of cheap labour or to have good time.

I beg to differ on the help part sir. Any Muslim country is a matter of concern for the Israelis. Though I agree on the diplomatic affairs part sir.

 

[Kamil_baku]

Even turkey wanted pakistani pilots to train their pilots on their f-16's, U.S vetoed it even.
From where pakistan will get spare parts of f-16 during war ?

No worries, Turkey can give it from behind doors. Thats why Pak still chooses to continue with F16.

 

[Tank131]

The most absolute pressing concern for PAF right now is not just that they wont get more F-16s, but its is finding it harder to replace mirages and older F-7s because there will be no more F-16s. Those 14 F-16s would have allowed nearly an entire squadron to be converted from a legacy F-7 or Mirage to a more modern aircraft with more life and better safety standards. PAF still has 160 aircraft (~80 mirage 3, ~80 mirage 5) to replace, as well as 60 F-7PG (which were purchased in early 2000s) so these can still fly on for a bit. It needs to replace these first, then worry about F-16. As of right now, PAF is still able to purchase spares. In the event it is unable to do so, it is said to have stockpiled 5 years worth of spares and weapons for the F-16 so it is not a major source of concern this second (there are roughly 75-80 or 4 squadrons of F-16s). The more pressing issue is getting the 5 squadrons of Mirage 3/5 and F-7P converted to modern new build aircraft. These F-16s from jordan would have allowed that to drop to 4 squadrons.

With that being said, the way forward is currently to double down on JF-17. People had talked about no more JF-17 after block 3. That will no longer be possible. There must be further development of JF-17 into block 4/5 ect. There could be an increase in size of the aircraft (re-design along the lines of that taken for F-16 when it jumped from A/B to C/D or F-18 when it went from C/D to E/F or Gripen from C/D to E/F/NG), but it needs to soldier on. With block 3 on the horizon, JF-17 will replace 2-3 squadrons of these legacy aircraft but it will take some time for this to occur (unless China increases production on its end).

The next thing would be to acquire 2-3 squadrons of J-10 or Flankers (preferably flankers). The J-10 is more likely but is not ideal, but you need modern equipment with better safety and maintainability for your pilots. This will allow you to get modern aircraft that are still quite highly potent while not quite as capable as the Rafale, Flanker or F-16IN, it will be a serious threat to them, especially if it is married to some tech off J-31 and J-20 with respect to better radar and better electro-optical systems and passive targeting modalities.

Then the push will be to start upgrading old JF-17s with newer builds as they come online and replace the F-16s with 5th Gen fighters (be it Turkish or more likely Chinese in origin). Within 5-8 years the plan to begin phasing out of F-16 should be implemented so that the retiring vipers can be mothballed for use as spares for those still in service so that the without affecting the combat availability of the type or the readiness of the service.

Will all your eggs be in the Chinese and/or Russian basket, yes...but short of France or UK suddenly willing to deal or Pakistan's economy taking off dramatically, you dont have much of a choice. Your best option is to leverage whatever local resources you have an increase your footprint in the aviation sector so that you are at least able to produce the necessary components for your aircraft locally (engines for JF-17 and or J-10, electronics, ect).

Beyond this, PAF needs to think out of the box with respect to strike capabilities. I have long advocated the acquisition of ~8 H-6K strategic bombers, for use as cruise missile trucks. A surface launched Babur has a 700km range...such a missile would have a range in excess of 1000km if launched from the air off an H-6K, and ~7 can be carried by this aircraft. A single aircraft could overwhelm FOBs of the IAF, from deep inside Pakistani territory where it would be relatively protected by PAF aircraft and SAMs in the first few hours. These strikes against IAF bases would push the operating theater further towards india as its fighters have to fly further to strike and its tankers have to come closer to PAF to enable its fighters to stay in the game, and this requires more fighters escorting those tankers. It also enables PAF to his S-400 batteries from Pakistani airspace, taking Indian SAMs more or less out of the fight over Pakistani Airspace, all while the H-6K is tucked deep inside Pakistan.

PAF and PA need to jointly acquire long range SAMs like HQ-9/HQ-19/HQ-26 for Long range SAMs which will help PN reach deep into Indian territory and allow better protection for PAF.

It will be expensive, but it is doable.

 

[ziaulislam]

Please read a book in the market name "in the line of fire"

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/141550.In_the_Line_of_Fire
And author the president of Pakistan admitted to even take money for kids .
FOr PPP & PML if you have any proof we all are ears

Secret memos 'show Pakistan endorsed US drone strikes'

Just wow

 

[denel]

I beg to differ on the help part sir. Any Muslim country is a matter of concern for the Israelis. Though I agree on the diplomatic affairs part sir.

well that appears to be a common tirade. This is not true. Put yourself in their shoes - same i can say is for Pak vs India - there will always be differences. If Egypt and others put aside differences and normalised; do you see a massive Isreali build up on Egyptian side ... no.

 

[FuturePAF]

The most absolute pressing concern for PAF right now is not just that they wont get more F-16s, but its is finding it harder to replace mirages and older F-7s because there will be no more F-16s.
...
The next thing would be to acquire 2-3 squadrons of J-10 or Flankers (preferably flankers). The J-10 is more likely but is not ideal, but you need modern equipment with better safety and maintainability for your pilots. This will allow you to get modern aircraft that are still quite highly potent while not quite as capable as the Rafale, Flanker or F-16IN, it will be a serious threat to them, especially if it is married to some tech off J-31 and J-20 with respect to better radar and better electro-optical systems and passive targeting modalities.

The PAF therefore needs to be up front and honest with the Chinese and re-evaluate the latest J-10 and point out where it is still lacking vi-a-vi PAF's desire for the F-16. With J-20 technology available, an upgraded j-10 would not be behind in any real aspect (other than engine performance to what the Block 52 F-16 can do; which is the best the PAF can hope to acquire). The PAF should be helping the Chinese build up the J-10 to level of the Eurofighter; PAF has experience training with RAF Eurofighters.

Lets Compare the F-16 Block 70 offered to the Indians and the Current J-10C (knowing the Chinese are working on GaN Aesa Technology). Build quality, the service life of each aircraft, Engine Thrust and Life Cycle are all issues that need to be addressed. IF the PAF focuses on building a top of the Line J-10; it can cap the JF-17 at 150; and recapitalize the rest with up to 150 J-10C/D/E and Look to acquiring 100-120 Turkish Fifth Gen Fighters when it retires the F-16s. Over the years technologies derived from the J-10 and Turkish programs can be applied to the Jf-17 and these three planes can be all you would need; all single engine, and all affordable but still modern.

as far as a heavy bomber to launch a hand full of cruise missiles; the thread is more to a large number of cheap cruise missiles launched from a few hundred kilometers increasing the chances of a destroying more targets and causing more disruption to the enemy.

 

[denel]

The PAF therefore needs to be up front and honest with the Chinese and re-evaluate the latest J-10 and point out where it is still lacking vi-a-vi PAF's desire for the F-16. With J-20 technology available, an upgraded j-10 would not be behind in any real aspect (other than engine performance to what the Block 52 F-16 can do; which is the best the PAF can hope to acquire). The PAF should be helping the Chinese build up the J-10 to level of the Eurofighter; PAF has experience training with RAF Eurofighters.

Lets Compare the F-16 Block 70 offered to the Indians and the Current J-10C (knowing the Chinese are working on GaN Aesa Technology). Build quality, the service life of each aircraft, Engine Thrust and Life Cycle are all issues that need to be addressed. IF the PAF focuses on building a top of the Line J-10; it can cap the JF-17 at 150; and recapitalize the rest with up to 150 J-10C/D/E and Look to acquiring 100-120 Turkish Fifth Gen Fighters when it retires the F-16s. Over the years technologies derived from the J-10 and Turkish programs can be applied to the Jf-17 and these three planes can be all you would need; all single engine, and all affordable but still modern.

as far as a heavy bomber to launch a hand full of cruise missiles; the thread is more to a large number of cheap cruise missiles launched from a few hundred kilometers increasing the chances of a destroying more targets and causing more disruption to the enemy.

I do concur with this assessment; J10 needs to be evaluated vs F-16 as it will be a symetrical move and there is no reason to believe performance cannot be improved with further inputs; I do not concur though with capping JF-17 to 150; the reasonable number is 250-300. given the geographical sphere of operations.

 

[Bossman]

The Chinese "Clankers" (just made up the name ) are not available for exports. And they are not a good idea for PAF anyway. The Typhoon would be a cheaper and better option if that's the case. Yep, it's way cheaper than a Flanker, especially with the new process changes that BAE has proposed. Their goal is to reduce CPFH to that of the F-16. The Clankers will be 3 times as expensive.

Anyway, a dedicated 5th gen aircraft will be a reality only after 2030. PAF will lose an entire decade if they don't make a decision on at least a stop gap aircraft like the F-16V, if not a proven next gen aircraft like Gripen.

Typhoons are coming

 

[CHI RULES]

I do concur with this assessment; J10 needs to be evaluated vs F-16 as it will be a symetrical move and there is no reason to believe performance cannot be improved with further inputs; I do not concur though with capping JF-17 to 150; the reasonable number is 250-300. given the geographical sphere of operations.

Sir if Pak gets some squadrons of J10b it shall be more then enough to counter Rafael as I personally think that no one outside Chinese military knows much about their fighters true capabilities especially modernized versions. The J10b shall certainly have more powerful AESA with more range than JF17 due to size and more power, similarly more capable ECM suit of Western origin may also be included.

On the other hand perhaps Pak may get few squadrons of J16 for Naval and Surface attack roles ( fighter bomber). One may assume that J15-16 are more or less indigenous products of China already having some 5th gen tech, though not having true stealth features.

That is not true.
If Pakistan establishes ties with Isreal there is no question that help wont be forthcoming. Give credit to Musharaff who was close to getting this done. I find it silly, essentially no reason why it is not being done given the Arabs are already in alliance with Isreal anyway.
Isreal never had any concerns with Pakistan.


I think time to point the middle finger. Arab countries already established direct and indirect relations for a long time. It is just a bogus excuse. Arabs never cared for Pakistan except as a source of cheap labour or to have good time.

The ties should be there first to end atrocities in Palestine if done then Pak or any other nation need not to contact Israelis behind close curtains. Many religious sites of Muslims and Christians are there in the area which are out of access to many due to hostile attitude of Israel. Israel should adopt the policy to live and let live

 

[FuturePAF]

I do concur with this assessment; J10 needs to be evaluated vs F-16 as it will be a symetrical move and there is no reason to believe performance cannot be improved with further inputs; I do not concur though with capping JF-17 to 150; the reasonable number is 250-300. given the geographical sphere of operations.

If the PAF can finance J-10 acquisitions, it would be misguided to continue beyond the 150 original requirement for the jf-17 and not go for the larger j-10; more range, more payload better sensors, in the league of the f-16

its like saying PAF would continue to build JF-17 over getting more f-16s

Get ToT for the J-10 and split the production line to some JF-17 and more J-10; continue to develop the JF-17 as it is a cheaper workhorse platform, but the j-10 outclasses the JF-17 and would be a smart path to go down.

also it would end the f-16 saga for the PAF, forcing us to discard the begging bowl.

imagine we had started sooner and foresaken the f-16, we would by now had at least 2 squadrons of j-10 (bearing in mind if the funds aren't stolen)

150 jf-17, 150 j-10 and 76 F-16s would be a more potent force than 250 jf-17, 50 j-10 and 76 f-16s

 

[volatile]

Financially viable option can be lease of J10B 2 squadrons for 10 years till the 5th Gen is available

 

[denel]

Sir if Pak gets some squadrons of J10b it shall be more then enough to counter Rafael as I personally think that no one outside Chinese military knows much about their fighters true capabilities especially modernized versions. The J10b shall certainly have more powerful AESA with more range than JF17 due to size and more power, similarly more capable ECM suit of Western origin may also be included.

On the other hand perhaps Pak may get few squadrons of J16 for Naval and Surface attack roles ( fighter bomber). One may assume that J15-16 are more or less indigenous products of China already having some 5th gen tech, though not having true stealth features.



The ties should be there first to end atrocities in Palestine if done then Pak or any other nation need not to contact Israelis behind close curtains. Many religious sites of Muslims and Christians are there in the area which are out of access to many due to hostile attitude of Israel. Israel should adopt the policy to live and let live

I do concur with you in terms of the penalties being done by Isreal; i never do and never did support it; it is same as aparthied and far worse especially under the newer govt who has given way too much support to settlements. Two state solution with pre-67 borders is the right way.

However, I would then counter why does Pak not terminate any relationship with Burma right now; the plight of the refugees breaks my heart and no sane muslim govt will be standing idle or even with KSA and its goons who are virtually annihalting Yemen daily or if I may add what your govt is doing visa vi proxies in neighbouring states for decades. Put everything in prespective is what i say... Palestinian cause is long fait accompli and if the arabs themselves were having any balls, they would have addressed this long ago; nothing you or I can do about it.

Anyway, let us not derail the topic and stick to the orignal matter.

Financially viable option can be lease of J10B 2 squadrons for 10 years till the 5th Gen is available

Nope..... Leasing is the worse option financially. THis is not a car you lease.

 

[Taha Samad]

A look at PAF fleet may give us idea of what PAF is looking for:

No 2 JF-17 Prev: F-7P
No 5 F-16C/D Prev: Mirage III
No 7 Mirage III ROSE-I
No 8 Mirage V
No 9 F-16AM/BM
No 11 F-16 AM/BM
No 14 JF-17 Prev: F-7P
No 15 Mirage V
No 16 JF-17, Prev: A-5C
No 17 F-7PG
No 18 F-7P [Probably will be equipped with remaining JF-17s Block 2]
No 19 F-16 A/B ADF. Better than non-MLUed Block 15s and might gain strike capability with Altis Pod which was previously integrated on Block 15s.
No 20 F-7PG
No 22 Mirage V
No 23 F-7PG
No 25 Mirage V ROSE-II
No 26 JF-17 Prev: A-5C
No 27 Mirage V ROSE-III
CSS Dashing:JF-17
CSS Skybolt: Mirage ROSE-I

No. 18 last F-7P squadron will probably be equipped with remaining JF-17s from block II.

3 F-7PG squardons will probably remain as is till 2023/2025 time frame when 5th gen starts coming in. Remember these were acquired around 2002. So they are not as old as some of the other aircrafts in PAF inventory. They can fulfill role of Daytime CAS, Point Defence Fighters.

So PAF needs to replace total 3 + 4 Non-ROSE & ROSE squadrons in short-term. Block III will replace 3 of these. So what remains is 4 more squadrons. So any new platform will be around 60 filling remaining 4 squadrons.

Possibilities:

1. If Block III matches or exceeds F-16 as an interceptor/Air Defence Fighter, release F-16 from such duties and keep them dedicated for strike roles & occasional Air Defence when things seem to getting out of hand(kind of like F-104 in 65). Even 45 MLU and 13 ADF fighters can be mixed up in squardons. This gives 4 squardons of Medium Range fighter for strike missions. Block IV of 50 JF-17s to fill numbers and to act as lower end strike aircraft(may be attempt to have CFT to increase range/free up stations for weapons, also a newer engine and lighter airframe can be attempted. Kind of JF-17 on steroids. But for this to happen in time, PAF has to finalize its revised acquisition plan ASAP). [Likely]
   
2. Cap JF-17 at 150, and add 50-60 J-11(around 3-4 squardons). This will give Pakistan new capabilities. Deep Strike / Long Duration Combat Air Patrol(over sea). [Ideal but unlikely due to cost]
3. Cap JF-17 at 150, and add 50-60 J-10(around 3-4 squardons). This is unlikely because PAF probably will not consider it worth the investment to induct a new platform which hardly gives any new capability. J-10s will only be filling in for F-16s PAF was not able to acquire. Another thing to consider is that by the time J-10s arrive it will be time for 5th Gen already. Had J-10s arrived in 2015/17 it would have made sense.[Unlikely]

Also we need to remember JF-17s are replacing Mirages/F-7s, so thats a capability increase anyway.

Also while we all wish for PAF to have best equipment available, we need to remember PAF is primarily a defensive force. Yes they may carry out some strikes but those will be against shallow targets aimed at allowing PAF some freedom over battlefield to support PA. So bulk of PAF war effort will be Air Defense Sorties.