Quickly? How quickly? And who said that? Salehi? Do you really believe him?
They said that if the US pulled out of the JCPOA, we would return to pre-JCPOA after 2 months. 2 years later, we are at the best scenario 7 months to 1 year away from pre-JCPOA numbers assuming our full capacity employed as announced.
What concessions could they ask for? Our nuclear program has become completely neutralized. If they want concessions this time, they will target our ballistic missile program. I think they already know another deal with us impossible. Specially now that the reformists are losing power. But they don't really mind the status quo either. Why should they? It is Iran that is losing money and can't change the situation, not them.
If this snap-back can happen by merely having one member complaining...then shame on Iran for signing it. I cannot believe this can happen. This a dirty trick. Even so we're not getting any benefit from sanction relief. I interpreted it as the non-performance after being reported to the UNSC has to be verified by the IAEA.... If the IAEA does claim non-performance then you have grounds for it going to arbitration of 3....one picked by the nation making the claim, the other by Iran and the 3rd by the body. And even then the paper says the outcome is non-binding. After a brief period of time, of no resolution, it goes to a vote in the UNSC.....like any other UNSC vote and the members with veto power can stop it, or approve it with 9 out of the 1 votes. Again just like numerous other UNSC actions that got stopped because of U.S. vetoing it. If this is not true then Iran lost the chess game. They should have known better when that paragraph was introduced. SMH...
Below is the excerpt of the JCPOA....I don't think the U.S. can trigger the complaint but the UK (Boris being in Trump's pocket) might. The very surprising factor is if the complaining member is the one with veto power...no matter what Iran does, they may choose to not accept and by vetoing any resolution the vote will fail and sanctions returned.....if this is not a joke I don't know what is.
37. Upon receipt of the notification from the complaining participant, as described above, including a description of the good-faith efforts the participant made to exhaust the dispute resolution process specified in this JCPOA, the UN Security Council, in accordance with its procedures, shall vote on a resolution to continue the sanctions lifting. If the resolution described above has not been adopted within 30 days of the notification, then the provisions of the old UN Security Council resolutions would be re-imposed, unless the UN Security Council decides otherwise.
UNSC is 15 member body of which 5 hold veto power.....need 9 votes for a majority, that means 6 members can vote against and the resolution can still pass.
However, all of this is besides the point. Iran according to IAEA (the appointed body to report on Iran's compliance) has not filed a non-performance against Iran, so in the eyes of the UNSC Iran is still within compliance of the JCPOA.......so there is no ground for any member state to report Iran to the UNSC for non-performance or violation within the JCPOA...if the US has issues with Iran's behavior it cannot be about JCPOA's violation, so if no JCPOA violation, there is no ground for snap-back.
