Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[what]

A ceasefire has been agreed on starting midnight, involving SAA and Allies and FSA.
Ceasefire does not include YPG/SDF or ISIS.

Meanwhile there are reports that Russia has started bombing Al-Bab.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Rugged terrain of Southeastern Turkey is way harsher than Afrin. Feel free to check it out. Plus Afrin is surrounded by Turkey in three sides, which gives a better movement change. We wouldnt even need to move our artillery into Syria.

I'm aware of that. Nonetheless, the Turks are more familiar with the geography of their own regions than they are with the geography of Afrin. As a case in point, just look at how difficult it has been for Turkey to capture al-Bab, even though the terrain in al-Bab is nowhere near as challenging as that in southeastern Turkey.

Whatever Assad does with Afrin is entirely depends on their stance. If they go rogue like their eastern buddies, they would be crushed between Assad and Turkey. If they obey Assad then as I said Im ok with Assad having control over Afrin.

The thing is, al-Assad is happy with Kurdish rule in Afrin. He doesn't want that to change. For one thing, the regime doesn't have enough manpower to reestablish control over that area. Therefore, from al-Assad's point of view, Kurdish rule in Afrin is a million times better than Turkish/FSA rule. It's as simple as that.

Anti-tank/air weapons wouldnt change the final results, more casualties and longer time? Yes but Turkish army is not a rag tag militia force, they wouldnt get depleted of resources and manpower. It wouldnt easily lose popular support either because people understand that it concerns our national security.

So you're suggesting an all out war against the Kurds? It's never going to happen. Neither Russia nor the Syrian government would allow that to happen. Both the Russians and Syrians know that, without YPG rule in northern Syria, most of that region would fall into the hands of the Islamist rebels, which is the last thing they'd ever want.

Don't forget that it was Russian and Syrian jets that bombed a group of FSA rebels a few weeks ago as they attempted to attack YPG positions near Afrin.

Anyway, even if neither Manbij or Afrin was touched this operation still succeceded on preventing their union. Not a very bad result.

Yes, I agree. And this is what al-Assad wanted, by the way. He wants the Kurds to be around, but he didn't want them to take over the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor as that might have led to the formal breakup of Syria.

A ceasefire has been agreed on starting midnight, involving SAA and Allies and FSA.
Ceasefire does not include YPG/SDF or ISIS.

Meanwhile there are reports that Russia has started bombing Al-Bab.

https://twitter.com/x/status/814478528158855169

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Bombing and joint ground operations aren't exactly the same. And, you're wrong, liberating Münbiç will be much more easier for us than the current Albab operation.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Bombing and joint ground operations aren't exactly the same. And, you're wrong, liberating Münbiç will be much more easier for us than the current Albab operation.

Maybe it will be.

Perhaps the Turks will fare better against the Syrian Kurds than against ISIS.

ISIS is the most flexible fighting force in Iraq and Syria. It has the ability to go into hiding and reemerge at a later date.

By the way, has anyone heard of the Twitter user, Rami?

 

[-SINAN-]

Funny how Russia is giving a message to the US and other western coalition members, who still refuse to assist against isis at al-Bab, that Russia on the contrary will bomb isis. US lost some face again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/814478528158855169

From what i follow, i think Ruaf is bombing Tarif town, south of Al-Bab. Nonetheless it's still an important development. It's known that US doesn't wants Turkey to enter Syria more than 20 km depth. Which leaves out Al-Bab, hence not providing air-support like they did in the earlier phase of operation.

For a country that is claiming to fight ISIS and go in extends to provide air-support for PKK linked terrorist group PYD, not giving aerial support to it's NATO ally, means only one thing.

US wants to create a YPG belt under our southern border.

Russia is just seizing the opportunity to create a rift among NATO members, also creating better ties with Turkey, the country that has great influence on FSA. As a result country wide cease fire is being reached.

https://twitter.com/x/status/814476476162736129

Russia - Turkey rapprochement is just the cause of the bad policy of US(supporting PYD, harboring Gülen), nothing more, nothing less.

I'm waiting the to see if US's policy in Syria will change under the new administration or not.... If not Turkey may begin to slowly drift away from US....like restrictions on US fighter jets in İncirlik airbase and so on.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

From what i follow, i think Ruaf is bombing Tarif town, south of Al-Bab. Nonetheless it's still an important development. It's known that US doesn't wants Turkey to enter Syria more than 20 km depth. Which leaves out Al-Bab, hence not providing air-support like they did in the earlier phase of operation.

I really have no idea what game the US is playing. On the one hand, it supported Turkey's entry into the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor, but on the other hand it opposed Turkey's attempt to fight against the YPG Kurds.

This is Machiavellian politics at its best, in my opinion. It makes it awfully difficult for anyone to properly analyze America's geopolitical moves in the region.

For a country that is claiming to fight ISIS and go in extends to provide air-support for PKK linked terrorist group PYD, not giving aerial support to it's NATO ally, means only one thing.

US wants to create a YPG belt under our southern border.

Maybe, maybe not. I don't think anyone knows for sure. Plus, there are so many conflicting points of view within the American establishment, so it's very hard to tell for sure.

I think America mostly cares about having its own presence in Syria. America will befriend any group that allows it to maintain its presence in that country.

Russia is just seizing the opportunity to create a rift among NATO members, also creating better ties with Turkey, the country that has great influence on FSA. As a result country wide cease fire is being reached.

https://twitter.com/x/status/814476476162736129

Russia - Turkey rapprochement is just the cause of the bad policy of US(supporting PYD, harboring Gülen), nothing more, nothing less.

I'm waiting the to see if US's policy in Syria will change under the new administration or not.... If not we may begin Turkey slowly drifting away from US....like restrictions on US fighter jets in İncirlik airbase and so on.

I don't think Turkey will turn its back on the West/US. Turkey will always be wary of Russia, and vice versa, regardless of how some media outlets try to spin it. Russia is a big country that's way too close to Turkey for comfort. The United States, on the other hand, is located thousands of miles away from Turkey, which means that neither country poses an existential threat to the other. Besides, Turkey is militarily highly dependent on the United States, especially with regard to its air force.

As for the Russians, I think they hope that Erdogan eventually hands al-Bab over to al-Assad's forces, should his troops succeed in capturing the town from ISIS.

 

[usernameless]

Bombing and joint ground operations aren't exactly the same. And, you're wrong, liberating Münbiç will be much more easier for us than the current Albab operation.

Why do you think so? I wouldn't bet on 'much easier' bro. Ypg/pkk has received (a lot?) modern shit from the US and without doubt they receive intelligence from the US too. These bastards also copied isis tactics, so combined with US support they should have the capability to inflict more damage than expected, though individually i don't think they are as stubborn and unafraid to fight to death like isis. I don't think it will be that easy, but if Munbic will be set in sights, then i trust that TSK and fsa will get it sooner or later.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Why do you think so? I wouldn't bet on 'much easier' bro. Ypg/pkk has received (a lot?) modern shit from the US and without doubt they receive intelligence from the US too. These bastards also copied isis tactics, so combined with US support they should have the capability to inflict more damage than expected, though individually i don't think they are as stubborn and unafraid to fight to death like isis. I don't think it will be that easy, but if Munbic will be set in sights, then i trust that TSK and fsa will get it sooner or later.

My English isn't good enough to elaborate all of my arguments & ideas precisely. That's why I'll do it in note form:

- Al Bab was more protected than Münbic is right now.

- FSA and other Arab fighters are more willing to fight against socialist inspired groups than fellow Arab DAESH members.

- If our current plan with Russia proves itself to be successful we'll have probably thousands of new FSA fighters.

- Speaking of Russia, I doubt that Russia will help or even intervene directly/indirectly to help the PKK-allied YPG forces.

- Vast majority of YPG forces are currently engaged in the US-led Raqqa Operation.

- I doubt that ISIS is going to conduct major attacks on FSA after Al Bab falls because they will need all of their fighters in the upcoming war at Raqqa. This is our timeframe to gain as much land as possible.

- We have three geographical advantages here:

a.) Münbic is way closer to our borders. This means we'll use our airforce excessively like we did before. We forced YPG forces to the south once:

b.) If we attack from north and west at the same time it's nearly impossible for PKK to withstand these attacks in long term.

c.) There is a good distance between regions held by Assad and Münbic.

 

[what]

Reports of many injured and two death in Al-Bab a few hours ago.

 

[Constantinople]

Please someone tell me how that they can't see the SVBIED before attack them...? and why they can't stop her

Look how sweet they are US-coalition...

 

[era_shield]

Finally some impressive work from MİT. Hopefully Russia can make Iran stick to the deal:

https://twitter.com/x/status/814503583768924160

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

So, has anyone heard of the pro-ISIS Twitter plonker who goes by the name of "Rami"?

He claims that ISIS has once again inflicted heavy casualties/losses on the Turkish army. :-/

-----------------------------------------

https://twitter.com/x/status/814565886854041604

https://twitter.com/x/status/814482392975114240

https://twitter.com/x/status/814560862103109632

https://twitter.com/x/status/814562686444957698

 

[ptldM3]

Video of captured Cobra, possibly the same that was hit with an ATGM (probably a dud) to the rear.

https://twitter.com/x/status/814569361549721600

As for the rest of this thread, the last several pages are filled with a number of low value posts that clutter real news and developments.

 

[OguzSenturk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/813512879236382720

@Kuwaiti Girl do you know him?

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

https://twitter.com/x/status/813512879236382720

@Kuwaiti Girl do you know him?

Never heard of him until recently, but I'm glad Kuwait has one less takfiri to worry about right now.

By the way, he was actually killed by a US airstrike:

https://twitter.com/x/status/814518064259604481

- I doubt that ISIS is going to conduct major attacks on FSA after Al Bab falls because they will need all of their fighters in the upcoming war at Raqqa. This is our timeframe to gain as much land as possible.

The Turks should continue to be wary of ISIS, even after they end up capturing al-Bab.

Why, you ask? Well, for one thing, ISIS doesn't really care about losing territory. The ISIS leaders have already conceded that they can't stand their ground in the face of numerous opponents. ISIS don't mind losing territory temporarily, if it means that they can recapture their lost territory at a later date. That's exactly what happened to Palmyra.

Secondly, at its core, ISIS functions just like every other Salafi-jihadist terrorist group. It mainly resorts to suicide attacks against its enemies. In fact, just yesterday, an ISIS suicide attack was carried out in the town of Sawran, which is held by the Turkish military and its FSA allies.

ISIS believes in carrying out suicide attacks against its enemies until they are exhausted to the point where they'd end up losing control of their towns and villages. That's what happened in Iraq after many years of terrorist attacks carried out by ISIS's predecessor.

Turkey must be extremely wary of ISIS from now on, regardless of the outcome of the al-Bab battle.