Turkish Geopolitics/ Foreign Affairs

[T-123456]

i remember writing in this very forum that pkk de-facto rules south-eastern anatolia, that it carved out its own fiefdom thanks to akp. and as isis-kurdish cooperation unfolds in our doorsteps, the final objective is this:

View attachment 43685

i still strongly believe that isis is an us-eu project, for some ragtag militia, however motivated can't perform military maneuvers that we see isis constantly performing in iraq and syria and it constantly evolves according to threats and needs of the battlefield (conspiracy theorists welcomed )

As i stated many times before,in the ME dreams become nightmares,let them dream on.

 

[Alienoz_TR]

assad's syria would most probably consist of latakia and tartus which he holds firmly since the start of the war. i'm not so sure about dimashk, hama, homs and as-suweyda. these regions are hellholes right now. in some SAA holds upper hand, in others their enemies. maybe he'd be able to retain parts of these regions adjoining alawite strongholds. current iraq is almost the same as this map, excluding kurds.

Assad forces are exhausted. Cannot attack on multiple fronts. While winning on Mleha, it lost in Deir Zor and Raqqa.

Many experienced Iranian Spec ops, hezbollah members are dead by now. Newer members are either too young or too old. Regime is bombing continously cities killing civilians, push remaining family members to Islamic front.

Sunni Arabs can provide valuable allies against Kurds if manage to defeat Shias.

 

[telkon]

Assad forces are exhausted. Cannot attack on multiple fronts. While winning on Mleha, it lost in Deir Zor and Raqqa.

Many experienced Iranian Spec ops, hezbollah members are dead by now. Newer members are either too young or too old. Regime is bombing continously cities killing civilians, push remaining family members to Islamic front.

Sunni Arabs can provide valuable allies against Kurds if manage to defeat Shias.

in deir az-zor SAA had only division 17 (manned by 150 max. soldiers) and brigade 93 (manned by 100+ some who fled from division 17) and in ar-raqqa SAA was non-existent. SAA manpower is in homs, hama, damascus and daraa. hezb. is long way from being exhausted. and i believe iran helped only with refurbishing, reforming, reshaping SAA and operational tactics. manpower input of iran was very very low. and i think you're forgetting that Assad has the backing of middle class sunnis.

 

[Alienoz_TR]

in deir az-zor SAA had only division 17 (manned by 150 max. soldiers) and brigade 93 (manned by 100+ some who fled from division 17) and in ar-raqqa SAA was non-existent. SAA manpower is in homs, hama, damascus and daraa. hezb. is long way from being exhausted. and i believe iran helped only with refurbishing, reforming, reshaping SAA and operational tactics. manpower input of iran was very very low. and i think you're forgetting that Assad has the backing of middle class sunnis.

- Tabqa airbase in Raqqa. (Under siege, will fall into IS within hours if not days)

- Kawkab military base in Hasaka. IS clashes with YPG and loyalists, although progress from either side are limited.

- Some airbases in south of Deir Zor. Clashes between IS and loyalist tribes continue, regime troops are at ease.

- Assad stands and takes back land because of clashes between rebel factions.

IS movements are confusing, two months ago attacked Anbar, last month attacked Hasakah, earlier this month took Nineveh plains and Sinjar, now attacking aleppo counryside. Coordination of such attacks and logistics lines are well organized. It is not a simple terror organisation.

 

[telkon]

- Tabqa airbase in Raqqa. (Under siege, will fall into IS within hours if not days)

- Kawkab military base in Hasaka. IS clashes with YPG and loyalists, although progress from either side are limited.

- Some airbases in south of Deir Zor. Clashes between IS and loyalist tribes continue, regime troops are at ease.

- Assad stands and takes back land because of clashes between rebel factions.

IS movements are confusing, two months ago attacked Anbar, last month attacked Hasakah, earlier this month took Nineveh plains and Sinjar, now attacking aleppo counryside. Coordination of such attacks and logistics lines are well organized. It is not a simple terror organisation.

i was speaking governorate-wise (like Kaan's signature "air force can obliterate, but only infantry can occupy). tho, i completely forgot tabqa, my bad hasakah is divided in two, between isis and ypg-saa. but the fact is, isis can't take places it encircles. like baiji refinery or town of amerli in iraq. these places are under isis siege for more than 2 months LOL and as i wrote several posts ago, i believe isis is us-eu project. they have operational, tactical and strategic understanding of the situation.

 

[kalu_miah]

The main problem in Turkey's neighborhood, if I understand correctly, has been lack of Sunni representation in ruling system. Syria under Assad family has always been like that and after removal of Saddam, Iraq became similar and in both places Iran is an enabler of these regimes.

The US is hoping to unite Iraq under a more inclusive regime led by newly selected PM, Al Abadi, but whether they can win against IS without US boots on the ground is a big question. That is the current US hope and direction in Iraq. If the IS gets pushed out of Iraq and then brings down Assad that is also a good thing for US strategy. But I doubt how much this strategy will actually work on the ground.

My personal feeling, Turkey will eventually have to get its hand dirty, if it wants to secure and stabilize its neighborhood. It should curve out a Sunni dominated sister state that will cover as much of Iraq and Syria as possible. GCC+Egypt will come forward to help in this project. Turkish Armed forces will step in and maintain peace, whereas armed forces from other Muslim nations can contribute in this peace keeping force, such as Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, GCC, Arab League etc., something in the line of:
OIC Peace Keeping Force for maintaining peace in majority Muslim countries

So far the international community has tried and failed to contain the problems and the situation is going from bad to worse. There is a lack of ownership, no one wants to own this problem and take a risk, but eventually it will cost all of us. The more we wait the more it will cost, as both Shia and Sunni extremists keep trying to finish each other off. So someone needs to come forward and own this problem and that someone must be immediate neighbors like Turkey and GCC. I would also include Iran in this team, but I doubt they will come forward, as they are the main instigator of this conflict from way back in 1979, when the Mullah regime came to power and started destabilizing the whole region with their Shia Ummah brotherhood nonsense.

@telkon @Alienoz_TR I don't believe IS is US-EU project, I believe its operational efficiency and effective strategy comes from its quality of manpower:
1. highly skilled and educated Jihadists from the West
2. Bathists from former Iraqi army

 

[XenoEnsi-14]

i remember writing in this very forum that pkk de-facto rules south-eastern anatolia, that it carved out its own fiefdom thanks to akp. and as isis-kurdish cooperation unfolds in our doorsteps, the final objective is this:

View attachment 43685

i still strongly believe that isis is an us-eu project, for some ragtag militia, however motivated can't perform military maneuvers that we see isis constantly performing in iraq and syria and it constantly evolves according to threats and needs of the battlefield (conspiracy theorists welcomed )

IMO there are three possible scenarios: ISIL (US, EU, temporary support), PKK (EU, Russia), and KRG (Kurdish Autonomy, US, EU).

In the ISIL scenario the PKK and KRG are eventually crushed and ISIL begins to creep south in the Eastern region of Saudi Arabia. However it's main purpose is to infiltrate Iran through the now chaotic Kurdistan regions and attempt to overthrow Iran. At the same time Turkey begins taking control of Syria and Iraqi kurdistan areas as ISIL concentrates on Iran. Israel continues activities in Palestinian and Hamas regions.

The PKK scenario will be that peace talks between the KRG, PKK, and Turkey succeed. The PKK in the long term eventually takes over the KRG, the Syria Kurdistan region, and causes chaos in the Turkey Kurdistan region with Russian intelligence. All of Kurdistan except for in Iran, will eventually fall under Socialism/Communism and Armenia will join too. Russia will use this to take control of oil fields in Iraq, gaining control of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea.

The KRG scenario, peace talks between PKK, Turkey and KRG fail and PKK restarts terrorism in Turkey. The KRG, with the help of Turkey, ends relations with the PKK and pushes it out of northern Iraqi regions. At the same time as Kurds in Turkey end support of PKK and it's terrorism, the PKK is eventually pushed south into Syria and East into Iran Kurdistan. The KRG eventually declares Autonomy in Iraqi Kurdistan, Syria Kurdistan and possibly Turkey Kurdistan (however this is unlikely as the PKK is pushed out and the independence fever decreases). This Autonomy Region will be under the Turkish Government rule. ISIL is kept out of Turkey and Iran (PKK in Iran prevents ISIL) however continues limited terrorism in Southern Syria and Southern Iraq. Turkey gains money from the KRG Autonomy region of Iraq oil fields, prevents Russia from gaining complete control over the Black and Caspian Seas.

Also the US eventually forces a referendum in the Kashmir region to gain support of Pakistan, Kashmir declares independence becoming Kashmir Republic.

That's my conspiracy.

 

[Alienoz_TR]

@XenoEnsi-14

I didnt understand how you brought Russia or Communism into the politics of middleast.

Kurds are allied with USA and Israel. Actually Israel doesnt do anything. Her lapdog USA does sacrifice to guarantee kurdistan, which is going to be virus to threaten muslim countries that are out of israeli reach.

Kurds will live as long as Americans stay. Then if Americans leave or abandon, kurds will be left to mercy of Muslims.

 

[usernameless]

http://m.ahaber.com.tr/Dunya/2014/08/17/edward-snowdenden-bomba-isid-iddiasi

Basically says; Snowden accused US, UK and Israeli intelligence of working with IS behind the scenes in order to weaken and divert the attention of ME countries away from Israel.

Whether it's true or not will probably remain a question mark, but the developments so far indicate that IS serves Israel and Kurds more than anything. Add to that the history of the US funding certain groups around the world for its benefits and it could be well true. My 2 cents

 

[xenon54 out]

http://m.ahaber.com.tr/Dunya/2014/08/17/edward-snowdenden-bomba-isid-iddiasi

Basically says; Snowden accused US, UK and Israeli intelligence of working with IS behind the scenes in order to weaken and divert the attention of ME countries away from Israel.

Whether it's true or not will probably remain a question mark, but the developments so far indicate that IS serves Israel and Kurds more than anything. Add to that the history of the US funding certain groups around the world for its benefits and it could be well true. My 2 cents

Do you have other source than akp propaganda machine? Otherwise its BS.

I mean how can nobody report about this but only A haber? This would make internationally headlines, as everything coming from Snowden, if true.

 

[XenoEnsi-14]

@XenoEnsi-14

I didnt understand how you brought Russia or Communism into the politics of middleast.

Kurds are allied with USA and Israel. Actually Israel doesnt do anything. Her lapdog USA does sacrifice to guarantee kurdistan, which is going to be virus to threaten muslim countries that are out of israeli reach.

Kurds will live as long as Americans stay. Then if Americans leave or abandon, kurds will be left to mercy of Muslims.

Don't know accurate this article is.

Russia urged PKK to say Turkey armed Syrian opposition

Also the PKK has a history of being politically Social/Communist. Another, PKK starts around the same time ASALA is dissolved in 1990-1991 is also around the same time the PKK originates and possibly members ASALA went to the PKK after there group was destroyed. ASALA too was politically communist. Don't forget Armenia officially left the USSR in September 21, 1991.

From what I know Russia doesn't even consider the PKK as a terrorist group, correct me if I am wrong.

America has given you the KRG Democracy that is trying to work with Turkey, on the other hand you have the PKK who hates you, and ASALA hated you to while they existed.

Conspiracies are like a needle in a haystack, eventually you find the needle once you know how to look for it.

Didn't go all into detail here, it would wind up being an essay.

 

[Alienoz_TR]

Don't know accurate this article is.

Russia urged PKK to say Turkey armed Syrian opposition

Also the PKK has a history of being politically Social/Communist. Another, PKK starts around the same time ASALA is dissolved in 1990-1991 is also around the same time the PKK originates and possibly members ASALA went to the PKK after there group was destroyed. ASALA too was politically communist. Don't forget Armenia officially left the USSR in September 21, 1991.

From what I know Russia doesn't even consider the PKK as a terrorist group, correct me if I am wrong.

America has given you the KRG Democracy that is trying to work with Turkey, on the other hand you have the PKK who hates you, and ASALA hated you to while they existed.

Conspiracies are like a needle in a haystack, eventually you find the needle once you know how to look for it.

Didn't go all into detail here, it would wind up being an essay.

Decades old stories, not related to current situation. This picture explains the situation:

America has given us KRG, huh? We ll give something back to USA. Wait and see.

 

[XenoEnsi-14]

Decades old stories, not related to current situation.

Stories? I gave you dates and a link hoping to get more information about from Turkey's side. OK, but last time I checked the PKK still exist.

Instead you post a picture without any information about it, nothing about where it is, or why they are saying thank you, nor is there a date. Based on the flags they're Kurds.

If you hate America so much why take it out on the KRG, oh wait I stand corrected you probably prefer ISIL to do the bloody work so you don't get your hands dirty. That way you can still suck money and weapons from us without looking like bad guys.

 

[olcayto]

What money??

 

[usernameless]

Do you have other source than akp propaganda machine? Otherwise its BS.

I mean how can nobody report about this but only A haber? This would make internationally headlines, as everything coming from Snowden, if true.

Most probably fake since other hits in google only show no name/flimsy news sites.