Turkey’s integration ‘EU’s last hope for the future’ legal expert claims

[Providence]

Reality is for all to see. Turkey, as a nation-state, is far more influential and relevant on global scale than any other European state. Without Turkey, Europe is pretty irrelevant in geopolitical sense (not economic sense!). What role can France or Germany play in Palestine-Israel issue? ISIS? Putin's gas routes? Middle-East (Egypt, Tunisia, Qatar, and so on), Syrian civil war crisis? Migrant crisis? Global military mission of NATO and so on and on.

Normally I don't respond with emoticons but here it was the only resort I suppose

 

[Ceri]

Of course huge construction projects like the building of roads, train lines, airports, bridges, power plants, dams have a huge impact on gdp.

It is true that city planning is complete shitty in many manucipalities, be it AKP CHP or MHP. I wouldn't even call it shitty, but literally nonexistant in many cities. In Kayseri for example, new apartments and their planning in some areas distant from the centre is chaotic, because ignorant almancis are gonna pay a ton of money anyway so they build without planning without proper preperation. People tend to prioritize to fill their pocket fast and buy BMW 530's. I don't even think Turkey is ready for that much wealth because a huge proportion of the population is ignorant beyond explanation. Shortsightedness, short term individual benefits (zero-sum game) far outweigh long term thinking (positive sum game).

Comparatively the 00s have been more beneficial, whether you like or dislike AKP. CHP has not professionalized itself as much as AKP and that is why people keep voting for AKP. In other words they don't think CHP will be more beneficial, the ideological or religious reasons are very low. It is always about the economy, heck if i trusted CHP would be capable of leading the country in the right direction i wouldn't hesitate voting for them

 

[Taygibay]

So would you say that UK and France are bigger European player than Germany since Germans don't have nukes?

Not bigger but different, man. Deutschland is the economic anchor of the EU but its role abroad is lesser
on average than that of France. The UK stands halfway in halfway out, maybe full out soon. You need
many abilities / personalities to form a worthy party, in D&D and IRL both. EU has those.

Turkey has lots of influence in surrounding region beyond its borders (Azerbaijan, MB factions in Egypt/Tunisia etc, mediation role in Israel-Palestine conflict, and so on)..

Wouldn't say that for UK or even France (except a little influence in some old African colonies may be?)..

I beg to differ. Which President was recently invited to a GCC grand meeting, a first for non-Arab, for instance?
Mediation between Israel and Palestine? With Recep Tayyip's slant towards the MB that back a faction in play?
How useful was that in the last attack by Israel on Gaza exactly, while regional powers backed Jerusalem discretely?
Realistically, who's chasing Islamists across the sub-Sahel while saving Muslims in CAR? Turkey?

You have every right to be proud of Turkey, should even IMHoO but going full fan boy doesn't help your point.
Check Providence's answer ( to which I concurred from the onset ) two posts above for a confirmation.

Reality is admittedly a fickle bee hitch.
Good day all, Tay.

 

[flamer84]

We have been in the Western camp for decades with incompetent governments, so it really did not matter whether we are in one camp or another, as long as we have endemic problems of shortsighted politicians who are purely self interested and think in short term gains for their immediate sorroundings for a few years they hold office. Things had begun changing in the 90s, i don't think Romania has the potential or capacity to exceed the GDP per capita of Turkey by 2k in the future. Turkey has a dynamic younger population, there is much more bigger projects going on in Turkey, in a few years Turkey will be only third in the world in terms of Fast Train tracks, and number one in Europe, right now it is number 2. World's biggest airport, new collosal bridges, enourmous tunnels that connect Asia and Europe, power plants that will diminish reliance on energy import and much more. How can Romania or any country in the EU for that matter compete with this magnitude of development? Granted security i'm confident Turkey will exceed GDP growth rate of European countries.

The IMF is not so confident.In fact Eastern European countries will widden the gap in GPD per capit vis vis Turkey.Poland is at 3k+ right now and in 2020 it will be 6k .Forget reaching Western standards.

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

 

[Neptune]

The IMF is not so confident.In fact Eastern European countries will widden the gap in GPD per capit vis vis Turkey.Poland is at 3k+ right now and in 2020 it will be 6k .Forget reaching Western standards.

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

80 million, people we have. Which probably is larger than the population of Eastern EU nations combined and is able to take the economy of that region from its pocket (maybe not, I am not so sure). Poland is a foreseeable great power for future. But there's no greater possibility for Slavic nations to widden the gap to be realistic.

 

[flamer84]

Which probably is larger than the population of Eastern EU nations combined and is able to take the economy of that region from its pocket (maybe not, I am not so sure)

Not really.Just as an example.Poland+Romanian+Hungary economies=a GDP bigger than Turkey with 68 million people

 

[-SINAN-]

Not really.Just as an example.Poland+Romanian+Hungary economies=a GDP bigger than Turkey with 68 million people

Compare Balkan countries.... Poland is an emerging power like Turkey.

Greece: 242
Romania: 189
Croatia: 57
Bulgaria: 54
Slovenia: 48
Serbia: 45
Bosnia and herzegovina: 18
Albenia: 13
Macedonia: 10
Kosovo: 7
Montenegro: 4
Total GDP: 774 $Billion

Turkey GDP: 822 $Billion.

(2013 figures)

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

I agree with the Article. I have heard every argument from both sides & the voice against it I found them to be "lacking" so to speak. With them sounding more xenophobic than rational. Like this thread like here.

 

[TurkeyForever]

Turkey is currently richer than 14 countries in Europe.

We should be top 5 or top 3 in the near future.

UK and Germany will be the most difficult to beat as they have too much big industry that is well established.

France should be easy, they just have some big flight company right airbus?

These are realistic predictions.

Let me take two areas where we have monopoly in exports:
Food exports
Textile exports

Egypt for instance imports almost everything being sold in shops from Turkey, because they lack the capabilirty to produce these things themselves.

I think Turkey could have monopoly in the whole of middle east muslim countries when it comes to food export especially, do to "halal" and muslim friendly way of production.

We have many advantages that Germany or UK doesn't have.

 

[-SINAN-]

Turkey is currently richer than 14 countries in Europe.

We should be top 5 or top 3 in the near future.

UK and Germany will be the most difficult to beat as they have too much big industry that is well established.

France should be easy, they just have some big flight company right airbus?

Turkish GDP $822 Billion
French GDP $2.8 Trillion.

It's not easy to beat, it's impossible for the time being. IMF estimate for 2020 is

Turkish GDP $905 Billion
French GDP $2940 Billion

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

I mean forget catching up, gap widens... Erdogan's "New Turkey" is like this.

 

[Ceri]

If we followed imf estimates in 2002 turkeys economy by 2010 would be around 350 billion usd.
The estimates are what they are: estimates. They cant predict many things since a lot of variables are not taken into account. That said our economy has slowed down since the turn of the decade and im not sure what can turn the wheels again

 

[-SINAN-]

hat said our economy has slowed down since the turn of the decade and im not sure what can turn the wheels again

Babacan explained it well at the time.

At the beginning (2002) AKP was dynamic, it made many reforms on economy, democracy, etc...so, FDI was pouring into country. Today it changed. Press freedom is demolished, bans on opposition leaders so they can't appear in TV, Journalists fired from main stream media, some thrown into jail. Jurisdiction ceased to be independent, they appointed judges, changed constitutional court that they can even break constitution. Instead of able people, Erdoğan started to appoint his friends and his family members. AKP mostly don't have bright people and till this day they used Cemaat's educated men pool and now that's over, on top of it Erdogan breaking constituanial rules by himself and because he owns every governmental body he goes unpunished. Democracy and Law hurt badly during Erdoğan's third term as PM and now as a President.

These developments scare foreign investors as can seen in the figure.

FDI

Things are not looking good with him. People still believe in him. They think that things will like in 2002-2008. No, those days are gone. Your hero lived long enough to turn into a villain.

 

[AUz]

Not bigger but different, man. Deutschland is the economic anchor of the EU but its role abroad is lesser
on average than that of France. The UK stands halfway in halfway out, maybe full out soon. You need
many abilities / personalities to form a worthy party, in D&D and IRL both. EU has those.



I beg to differ. Which President was recently invited to a GCC grand meeting, a first for non-Arab, for instance?
Mediation between Israel and Palestine? With Recep Tayyip's slant towards the MB that back a faction in play?
How useful was that in the last attack by Israel on Gaza exactly, while regional powers backed Jerusalem discretely?
Realistically, who's chasing Islamists across the sub-Sahel while saving Muslims in CAR? Turkey?

You have every right to be proud of Turkey, should even IMHoO but going full fan boy doesn't help your point.
Check Providence's answer ( to which I concurred from the onset ) two posts above for a confirmation.

Reality is admittedly a fickle bee hitch.
Good day all, Tay.

Turkey have had a bigger role outside than UK.

France chasing terrorists in her old colonies isn't a big deed. Turks have also bombed different factions (Kurds, PSY, ISIS etc) in Syria and Iraq etc..

And In 2008 and 2011 Gaza massacre, Turkey played an active role by mediating between Palestinian factions and Israel and played a key role in brokering the ceasefire. The precise reason Turkey had influence in that conflict was because it had links with both parties involved. I do understand that with Israel relations soured and unstability in Middle-East, Turkey's role has become limited--but that's temporary. Israel and Turkey will engage with each other again. You know it too.

Turkey is easily the fourth most powerful nation-state in Europe. It is the greatest power in Central-Eastern Europe.

France, UK, and Germany, over-all, are more powerful states than Turkey for now---but Turkey enjoys greater influence/role beyond its borders than Germany and UK (and even France in my opinion but you can disagree).

Turkey is on path to be able to become a "projecting" power in Mediterranean (with induction of LHD and F-35s on deck)---and with already having a bigger military than France and UK--Turks do seem poise to close the gap between themselves and Western European powers.

In Eastern/Central Europe--Turkey has no match.

These are just facts, not rants of any fanboy.

I just have not seen any major (non-economic) European role outside their borders.

 

[Ceri]

I agree with most of your points, but disagree with some. Erdogan and company did many things right when they got elected as government in 2002. The biggest issue as i see in Turkish politics is how people get appointed and organized in governmental and nongovernmental institutions with the help of those holding power. Erdogan's team decided to heavily transform those institutions that were mostly occupied by kemalists (dont go berserk when i say this) with Gülenists, because they were the best organized. And then they broke up, you know the rest of the story..

Whoever comes to power in Turkey always seems to "appoint" or rather install their heavily ideological people in certain positions to strenghten their claim and guarantee their position. And i don't think this is a special case for Turkey, every democracy has this issue but they have certain ways of dealing with this. Political parties come and go but the institutions that are there to guarantee the nations stability and security are or rather should purely prioritize filling their respective roles. In Denmark and Sweden we have Embedsmand to fill this role.

The lack of stability in Turkey as i see it is that the elites are not working as a body but with diverging goals and interests. A political system's main function is providing security and public goods, if people and the elite do not agree upon a certain set of rules or rather goals there will be turmoil because there is no awareness of public good instead of private narrow self interested good. In other words, absolutely no cohesion and people percieve people of other conviction almost as "enemies" that are purely self interested narrow minded individuals - and perhaps they are, who knows

 

[-SINAN-]

agree with most of your points, but disagree with some. Erdogan and company did many things right when they got elected as government in 2002. The biggest issue as i see in Turkish politics is how people get appointed and organized in governmental and nongovernmental institutions with the help of those holding power.

Whoever comes to power in Turkey always seems to "appoint" or rather install their heavily ideological people in certain positions to strenghten their claim and guarantee their position. And i don't think this is a special case for Turkey, every democracy has this issue but they have certain ways of dealing with this. Political parties come and go but the institutions that are there to guarantee the nations stability and security are or rather should purely prioritize filling their respective roles. In Denmark and Sweden we have Embedsmand to fill this role.

The lack of stability in Turkey as i see it is that the elites are not working as a body but with diverging goals and interests. A political system's main function is providing security and public goods, if people and the elite do not agree upon a certain set of rules or rather goals there will be turmoil because there is no awareness of public good instead of private narrow self interested good. In other words, absolutely no cohesion and people percieve people of other conviction almost as "enemies" that are purely self interested narrow minded individuals - and perhaps they are, who knows

The issue is, courts have always been free. Media has always been free. You know Çiller....Jitem, Gladio was active during his term. But Journalists could draw her as faceless. "Because during an inqusition about her wealth, she said that she found a money of bag in her house".

Today children get thrown into Jail because of talking badly of Erdoğan. 14 yaşındaki çocuğu Erdoğan'a hakaret iddiasıyla tutuklamaya kalktılar-Kayseri Haberleri

I don't think there is an Elite problem. But i can say Elites do not approve Erdoğan's policies, common people blindly follow Erdoğan.