The Second Indo-Chinese War (2013-2015)

[TenjikuKensei]

We already did in 1962. Indians have not beaten a non-subcontinent army in 2000 years. I see little reason why this would change.

Jai Hind.

Not really. The Cholas beat quite a lot of SEA armies during their time...especially the SriVijayan Empire that held sway over that region..In fact the SriVijaya empire ceased to exist after their defeat by the Cholas.

As for 1962, sure it was a loss, but my research tells me that China would not have been able to hold onto the territory it took. The "unilateral" Chinese withdrawal would have happened anyways when the supplies to sustain combat operations ground to a halt(as they would have been if the war continued on for a few more weeks in that sector...sure some supplies would have made it through..but definitely not enough to sustain combat footing...not even close.). Correct me if I'm wrong, but at most the Chinese forces had a few more weeks of combat supplies left by the time they withdrew. This is further supported by some Chinese accounts of how hard it was for them to bring up supplies to prepare for the 1962 offensive. To have tried to hold the ground taken would have been military suicide, and I suspect the Chinese generals knew that very well.

An army marches on its stomach and if not for the unilateral withdrawal, the PLA forces would have been forced to withdraw anyways..and this time under enemy pressure and lack of supplies. The Chinese generals were smart to withdraw when they did. Ultimately imo the 1962 expedition resulted in no net Chinese gains(again correct me here if i left something out). No land gain...no agreement on subject of the disputed land either.

No one gainsays that the 1962 offensive was a successful one,,but only till it lasted.It is akin to starting a game and declaring it over unilaterally when the initial beginners/headstart advantage ceases to exist.

The 1962 Chinese offensive is analogous to the medieval era Cavalry Charges which mostly hinged on the initial damage done by a cavalry charge.Any extended melee battle of Cavalry vs heavy infantry would have resulted in the expensive Cavalry units whittled down. Thus the most common cavalry tactic during the middle ages(and even later in the Napoleonic wars) was to charge and then withdraw when the initial momentum has been lost.They would charge again later when and if battlefield situations permit. A common rule of thumb about cavalry charges is that 80% of the damage is done during the initial charge..afterward the damage dealt peters out to almost nothing. In this particular case, the Cavalry would not have been able to continue to charge cos it would not have been able to receive reinforcements/supplies.

If you do believe that the PLA could have held on to the land gained during the 1962 offensive, especially when a corps worth of Indian Army units approaching the theater, along with the newly arriving Foreign military aid, ill be most interested in hearing your argument as to how it could have been done. So basing an argument on a very limited conflict , imho seems like house built out of a deck of cards

 

[ganimi kawa]

With all due respect, I base my comment on the yields of the 6 Indian nuclear tests. It is unlikely that India will deliver a bomb design that has not been tested and if that is that case the bombs would be in the Hiroshima energy range. Pin pricks in terms of modern stockpile.

A 200 kt device (though for test purposes scaled to 40kt) should be more than a pin prick, especially with MIRV tech (being developed for Agni V and perhaps K4)

Also note the technologies that were tested in pokharan II, that leaves little doubt in mind about what india was trying to achieve.

A two stage thermonuclear device ( with a boosted fission primary)

A boosted fission device (primary stage)

A pure fission warhead (modified by simulations with earlier test data)

Two sub kiloton devices (one with U233) for gathering data for future simulations.


Looking only at the 3 subkiloton yields and assessing Indian nukes would not be a correct thing to do.

Though "Not tested enough" is a tag that indian nukes will have to carry. I wish we could conduct a few more tests but that is impossible in the current scenario.

 

[justanobserver]

Not really. The Cholas beat quite a lot of SEA armies during their time...especially the SriVijayan Empire that held sway over that region..In fact the SriVijaya empire ceased to exist after their defeat by the Cholas.

As for 1962, sure it was a loss, but my research tells me that China would not have been able to hold onto the territory it took. The "unilateral" Chinese withdrawal would have happened anyways when the supplies to sustain combat operations ground to a halt(as they would have been if the war continued on for a few more weeks in that sector...sure some supplies would have made it through..but definitely not enough to sustain combat footing...not even close.). Correct me if I'm wrong, but at most the Chinese forces had a few more weeks of combat supplies left by the time they withdrew. This is further supported by some Chinese accounts of how hard it was for them to bring up supplies to prepare for the 1962 offensive. To have tried to hold the ground taken would have been military suicide, and I suspect the Chinese generals knew that very well.

An army marches on its stomach and if not for the unilateral withdrawal, the PLA forces would have been forced to withdraw anyways..and this time under enemy pressure and lack of supplies. The Chinese generals were smart to withdraw when they did. Ultimately imo the 1962 expedition resulted in no net Chinese gains(again correct me here if i left something out). No land gain...no agreement on subject of the disputed land either.

No one gainsays that the 1962 offensive was a successful one,,but only till it lasted.It is akin to starting a game and declaring it over unilaterally when the initial beginners/headstart advantage ceases to exist.

The 1962 Chinese offensive is analogous to the medieval era Cavalry Charges which mostly hinged on the initial damage done by a cavalry charge.Any extended melee battle of Cavalry vs heavy infantry would have resulted in the expensive Cavalry units whittled down. Thus the most common cavalry tactic during the middle ages(and even later in the Napoleonic wars) was to charge and then withdraw when the initial momentum has been lost.They would charge again later when and if battlefield situations permit. A common rule of thumb about cavalry charges is that 80% of the damage is done during the initial charge..afterward the damage dealt peters out to almost nothing. In this particular case, the Cavalry would not have been able to continue to charge cos it would not have been able to receive reinforcements/supplies.

If you do believe that the PLA could have held on to the land gained during the 1962 offensive, especially when a corps worth of Indian Army units approaching the theater, along with the newly arriving Foreign military aid, ill be most interested in hearing your argument as to how it could have been done. So basing an argument on a very limited conflict , imho seems like house built out of a deck of cards

Oh why do you even bother ?

1. Crazy warmonger India invaded China
2. China successfully deterred this blatant act of imperialism and even managed to capture huge swathes of territory
3. Then as a gesture of goodwill, the mighty dragon gifted that territory back to India

 

[somebozo]

If indian won the war they wouldn't have all sort of empires invading them and taking a piece of them to rule while transferring riches back to their homeland..The Aryans, Persian, Arabs, mongols, Turks, British, Dutch, Portuguese and few other held sizable territories in India..

Now i bet some one will point out that they came in with welcoming attitude and contributed a lot to "shining India" and indianized.

 

[kingdurgaking]

If indian won the war they wouldn't have all sort of empires invading them and taking a piece of them to rule while transferring riches back to their homeland..The Aryans, Persian, Arabs, mongols, Turks, British, Dutch, Portuguese and few other held sizable territories in India..

Now i bet some one will point out that they came in with welcoming attitude and contributed a lot to "shining India" and indianized.

How ever wealth has been stolen ... our human wealth still remains intact ... which is now opening path for greater united India in which many countries are interested .. dont you agree??

 

[justanobserver]

If indian won the war they wouldn't have all sort of empires invading them and taking a piece of them to rule while transferring riches back to their homeland..The Aryans, Persian, Arabs, mongols, Turks, British, Dutch, Portuguese and few other held sizable territories in India..

Now i bet some one will point out that they came in with welcoming attitude and contributed a lot to "shining India" and indianized.

युनान-ओ-मिस्र-ओ-रोमा सब मिट गए जहाँ से ।
अब तक मगर है बांकी नामो-निशान हमारा ॥६॥

 

[CardSharp]

Not really. The Cholas beat quite a lot of SEA armies during their time...especially the SriVijayan Empire that held sway over that region..In fact the SriVijaya empire ceased to exist after their defeat by the Cholas.

As for 1962, sure it was a loss, but my research tells me that China would not have been able to hold onto the territory it took. The "unilateral" Chinese withdrawal would have happened anyways when the supplies to sustain combat operations ground to a halt(as they would have been if the war continued on for a few more weeks in that sector...sure some supplies would have made it through..but definitely not enough to sustain combat footing...not even close.). Correct me if I'm wrong, but at most the Chinese forces had a few more weeks of combat supplies left by the time they withdrew. This is further supported by some Chinese accounts of how hard it was for them to bring up supplies to prepare for the 1962 offensive. To have tried to hold the ground taken would have been military suicide, and I suspect the Chinese generals knew that very well.

An army marches on its stomach and if not for the unilateral withdrawal, the PLA forces would have been forced to withdraw anyways..and this time under enemy pressure and lack of supplies. The Chinese generals were smart to withdraw when they did. Ultimately imo the 1962 expedition resulted in no net Chinese gains(again correct me here if i left something out). No land gain...no agreement on subject of the disputed land either.

No one gainsays that the 1962 offensive was a successful one,,but only till it lasted.It is akin to starting a game and declaring it over unilaterally when the initial beginners/headstart advantage ceases to exist.

The 1962 Chinese offensive is analogous to the medieval era Cavalry Charges which mostly hinged on the initial damage done by a cavalry charge.Any extended melee battle of Cavalry vs heavy infantry would have resulted in the expensive Cavalry units whittled down. Thus the most common cavalry tactic during the middle ages(and even later in the Napoleonic wars) was to charge and then withdraw when the initial momentum has been lost.They would charge again later when and if battlefield situations permit. A common rule of thumb about cavalry charges is that 80% of the damage is done during the initial charge..afterward the damage dealt peters out to almost nothing. In this particular case, the Cavalry would not have been able to continue to charge cos it would not have been able to receive reinforcements/supplies.

If you do believe that the PLA could have held on to the land gained during the 1962 offensive, especially when a corps worth of Indian Army units approaching the theater, along with the newly arriving Foreign military aid, ill be most interested in hearing your argument as to how it could have been done. So basing an argument on a very limited conflict , imho seems like house built out of a deck of cards

the 2000 year remark is not my assertion but merely a statement I came across made by an Indian officer who wrote about 1962.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/india-...cious-action-pla-lessons-sino-indian-war.html

it's in there somewhere.


and as for the rest about 1962, it's best to deal with facts and details instead of drawing analogies between the PLA offensive and cavalry charges.


Here is a Times report of the period (as an interesting aside, note the use of Red China and the casual racism). They have the situation down.

Red China behaved in so inscrutably Oriental a manner last week that even Asians were baffled. After a series of smashing victories in the border war with India. Chinese troops swept down from the towering Himalayas and were poised at the edge of the fertile plains of Assam, whose jute and tea plantations account for one-fourth of India’s export trade. Then, with Assam lying defenseless before her conquering army. Red China suddenly called a halt to the fighting.

Radio Peking announced that, “on its own initiative.” Red China was ordering a cease-fire on all fronts. Further, by Dec. 1, Chinese troops would retire to positions 12½ miles behind the lines they occupied on Nov. 7. 1959. If this promise is actually carried out. it would mean, for some Chinese units, a pullback of more than 60 miles. These decisions. Peking continued, ”represent a most sincere effort” to achieve ”a speedy termination of the Sino-Indian conflict, a reopening of peaceful negotiations, and a peaceful settlement of the boundary question.” War or peace, the message concluded, ”depends on whether or not the Indian government responds positively.”

In New Delhi the government of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was taken completely by surprise. An Indian spokesman first denounced the Chinese offer as a “diabolical maneuver.” which was later amended to the comment that India would “wait and see” exactly what the Chinese were proposing. A communique confirmed that, after the cease-fire deadline, there “had been no report of firing by the Chinese aggressors.” Indian troops also stopped shooting, but Nehru warned India: “We must not imagine that the struggle will soon be over.”

On closer examination, the Chinese cease-fire proved to be a lot less mysterious. It did offer India’s battered armies a badly needed respite. But it left the Chinese armies in position to resume their offensive if Nehru refuses the Peking terms. And it puts on India the onus of continuing the war. Said the Hindustan Times: “The latest Chinese proposals are not a peace offer but an ultimatum.”

Whatever the results of this peace bid tendered on a bayonet, India will never be the same again, nor will Nehru.

 

[CardSharp]

You may find this illuminating

 

[CardSharp]

Oh why do you even bother ?

1. Crazy warmonger India invaded China
2. China successfully deterred this blatant act of imperialism and even managed to capture huge swathes of territory
3. Then as a gesture of goodwill, the mighty dragon gifted that territory back to India

Read the times report. You can put words in people's mouth but is what you believe really grounded? Imaginary double division under whose threat the PLA withdrew?

 

[justanobserver]

Read the times report. You can put words in people's mouth but is what you believe really grounded?

Barren Rock. In New Delhi illusions are dying fast. Gone is the belief that Chinese expansionism need not be taken seriously, that, in Nehru's words, China could not really want to wage a major war for "barren rock." Going too, is the conviction that the Soviet Union has either the authority or the will to restrain the Chinese Communists. Nehru's policy of nonalignment, which was intended to free India from any concern with the cold war between the West and Communism, was ending in disaster. Nearly shattered was the morally arrogant pose from which he had endlessly lectured the West on the need for peaceful coexistence with Communism. Above all. the Indian people, fiercely proud of their nationhood, have been deeply humiliated and shaken by the hated Chinese.

Read more: India: Never Again the Same - TIME

It seems we got back-stabbed !

 

[CardSharp]

A 200 kt device (though for test purposes scaled to 40kt) should be more than a pin prick, especially with MIRV tech (being developed for Agni V and perhaps K4)

Also note the technologies that were tested in pokharan II, that leaves little doubt in mind about what india was trying to achieve.

A two stage thermonuclear device ( with a boosted fission primary)

A boosted fission device (primary stage)

A pure fission warhead (modified by simulations with earlier test data)

Two sub kiloton devices (one with U233) for gathering data for future simulations.


Looking only at the 3 subkiloton yields and assessing Indian nukes would not be a correct thing to do.

Though "Not tested enough" is a tag that indian nukes will have to carry. I wish we could conduct a few more tests but that is impossible in the current scenario.

I can only go on information sourced to my satisfaction. It may be that due to the secret nature of such weapons I am under-estimating India's nuclear capabilities but thus far India has not achieve the stockpile necessary to destroy, the three gorges dam, Hainan, Guangzhou provinces and Tianjin, Beijing etc as have been claimed by Indians here.


From the federation of American scientists.

Testing

After 24 years without testing India resumed nuclear testing with a series of nuclear explosions known as "Operation Shatki." Prime Minister Vajpayee authorized the tests on April 8, 1998, two days after the Ghauri missile test-firing in Pakistan.

On May 11, 1998, India tested three devices at the Pokhran underground testing site, followed by two more tests on May 13, 1998. The nuclear tests carried out at 3:45 pm on May 11th were claimed by the Indian government to be a simultaneous detonation of three different devices - a fission device with a yield of about 12 kilotons (KT), a thermonuclear device with a yield of about 43 KT, and a sub-kiloton device. The two tests carried out at 12:21 pm on May 13th were also detonated simultaneously with reported yields in the range of 0.2 to 0.6 KT.

However, there is some controversy about these claims. Based on seismic data, U.S. government sources and independent experts estimated the yield of the so-called thermonuclear test in the range of 12-25 kilotons, as opposed to the 43-60 kiloton yield claimed by India. This lower yield raised skepticism about India's claims to have detonated a thermonuclear device.

Observers initially suggested that the test could have been a boosted fission device, rather than a true multi-stage thermonuclear device. By late 1998 analysts at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory had concluded that the India had attempted to detonate a thermonuclear device, but that the second stage of the two-stage bomb failed to ignite as planned.

 

[CardSharp]

It seems we got back-stabbed !

Those were the McCarthy days, believe what you like about backstabbing etc. You won't suffer for lack of company. The points relevant to were introduced for purpose of discussion. It's a long article.

 

[LaBong]

I can only go on information sourced to my satisfaction. It may be that due to the secret nature of such weapons I am under-estimating India's nuclear capabilities but thus far India has not achieve the stockpile necessary to destroy, the three gorges dam, Hainan, Guangzhou provinces and Tianjin, Beijing etc as have been claimed by Indians here.


From the federation of American scientists.

Some sources estimated that by the year 2000, India's stockpile of weapons grade plutonium could rise to 450 kg. This plutonium stockpile was projected by the same conservative assumptions to reach a level equivalent to 85 to 90 weapons by the year 2000. By another estimate, India easily could have accumulated plutonium from the CIRUS and Dhruva reactors for about 133 weapons by 2000, with the rate of increase from these facilities of nearly 7 weapons annually

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2001/south_asia.pdf

 

[LaBong]

“The May 1998 tests were fully successful in terms of achieving their scientific objectives and the capability to build fission and thermonuclear weapons with yields up to 200 kilotons,” said R Chidambaram, the government’s principal scientific adviser and former chief of the Atomic Energy Commission.

FT.com / Asia-Pacific / India - India raises nuclear stakes

 

[KS]

Some sources estimated that by the year 2000, India's stockpile of weapons grade plutonium could rise to 450 kg. This plutonium stockpile was projected by the same conservative assumptions to reach a level equivalent to 85 to 90 weapons by the year 2000. By another estimate, India easily could have accumulated plutonium from the CIRUS and Dhruva reactors for about 133 weapons by 2000, with the rate of increase from these facilities of nearly 7 weapons annually

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2001/south_asia.pdf

Think about it...this was during the time we had to balance our fuel for civilian as well as for military purposes.

Now that we have a free pass in the form of civilian nuke deal, the weapon producing capability may have increased manifolds with about 7 plants dedicated only for military use.