The Second Indo-Chinese War (2013-2015)

[Elmo]

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[HongWu]

No answers to this post?

Maybe someone wants to make another prediction?

The answer is pretty simple. The Indians will do another "forward policy" on Tibet when China is in a crisis situation against USA over Korean peninsula, Diaoyutai or Taiwan. Their strategy is to force China into a two-front war.

But first, they need to deploy more troops and more supplies to the Eastern Sector to fight China. The entire Indian Army is in the process of redeployment to put maximum pressure on China. I expect this process to be mostly completed by summer 2011.

India might also want delivery of MMRCA, M-777 and Apache before going to war against China. These should be delivered by 2015.

So, India will have completed its preparation for war against China by summer 2011 at the earliest and 2015 at the latest.

There is also political perspective. The current PM Singh is probably the single most anti-China PM India has ever had, because PM Singh is extremely pro-USA. He might step down by 2014. So the risk of war will decrease slightly after he steps down.

Obama already had a meeting with Hu Jintao, so for now a war in 2011 between China and USA or its ally is not as likely.

So the highest risk would be if a more belligerent USA president assumes office in January 2013 while PM Singh is still in power. Then USA would greatly accelerate its deliver of weapons to India and India will be fully armed for war against China by late 2013 to 2014!

It would be very advantageous for China to have the J-20 ready by that time to participate in China's superpower party the quick and decisive defeat of India in the Southwest and then USA allies in the East.

 

[Elmo]

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