Capt.Popeye
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 5, 2010
- Messages
- 11,937
- Reaction score
- 12
A Chinese CBG will not be sent to the IOR to attack India in a China/India crisis only.
A much more likely situation will be in case of tensions between India and Pakistan and BD - I know that it is fetched to imagine a decently militarily strong BD but it can theoretically happen if the will was there.
Now, for the last time, there is no need for a Chinese CBG to ever pass A&N as they can just sail south of Australia and then swing east to approach southern or even eastern India.
The point that I am trying to make is that if China was to send 2 CBGs into the IOR to approach India that would tie up a lot of resources(most of the Navy and hundreds of land-based fighter aircraft) that India will find it hard to muster enough resources to deal with whatever situation it was facing and also protect all it's other borders.
In short, India will have to take into account the Chinese Navy for the first time in South Asian military situations.
You will not agree due to nationalism but facts are facts. A country that is 5 times richer and more industrially developed can do something like this against the weaker country.
WRT the underlined part; if the Chinese Fleet does not pass the A&N Islands (ie Malacca Straits), then it has a much longer route to take.
Esp the one that you suggest, i.e. South of Australia. That route is entirely unfeasible (in a conflict situation) because re-fuelling and re-supplying that Fleet will well-nigh impossible unless Australia extends such facilities to a Chinese Combat Fleet. Do you see that happening?
Plus that route will make the Chinese Fleet susceptible to monitoring all along that long arduous voyage and will then become a "sitting duck" when it enters the IN's sphere of Ops. eventually. What do you think the LR air assets of the IN and IAF are for apart from the growing IN Fleet. As a matter of fact, a third IN Fleet will be raised now: the Southern Fleet so that the Eastern and Western Fleets can concentrate on their spheres of Ops.
In Wartime, the Chinese Fleet will have a very hard time to make any effective contribution in the IOR.
Now coming to the other (rather fanciful) scenario that you sketch. That the Chinese Fleet will come into the picture in case of a conflict between India and Paksitan (BD will not even warrant such attention!); even that is not on. The first thing is that "Gunboat Diplomacy" cannot be exercised so easily in these times; even more so in context of the countries that you have used in your speculation. Secondly, China is not keen to stick its neck out for other countries "misadventures". That was clearly demonstrated during the last Indo-Pak conflagration in 1999, when China clearly told Paksitan to vacate Kargil. For over the last 15 years China has clearly told Paksitan to mend its fences with India and muzzle the Islamists in very clear terms.
Assuming that a Chinese Fleet were to consider venturing into the area; Para#1 applies. If the Malacca Straits Route is used, then the A&N Islands (India's largest Carrier) will come into play. And very effectively at that.
Most of all; remember the growing Chinese Fleet has its task cut out in minding the Pacific and East Seas and keeping a watchful eye on a growingly uneasy ASEAN and RIMPAC area.
Any forays into IOR will be strictly "flag-waving diplomatic exercises", thats all.