Terrorists Can't Hide, India To Get Predator Drone For American Style Operations

[Maj.Osmani]

How many times did you engage/shoot down our Mig-25s? How many UAVs have you shot down across LC or for that matter how many have we?

The reason why you won't retaliate is that the only condition wherein a strike at a designated terror camp will take place will be if a repeat of Mumbai type attack takes place.

Pakistan is and remains in a precarious situation today as it is now openly being challenged to prove it is not supporting terror and is increasingly being called out for in fact spreading terror. In such a scenario, a pragmatic situation exists that a Mumbai type attack may force the present government to take overt action against a terror base. In such a scenario, wherein the world opinion would be against Pakistan, I again ask, will the Pakistani authorities accept unmanageable consequences for a few Islamists and convicts? After all, your cadre of proxies in valley are made up mostly of convicts nowadays ......

Ooh well....
Nice one mumbai like situation...cold start and army build up at border but no violation of LOC or airspace will be tolerated, MiG 25 should be shoot down but no orders was given at that time and no seriouse drone or UAV enters our airspace from Indian side. MIG came breaks the sound barrier and quickly returns to their airspace.

 

[Jamwal's]

Naxal Ops runs under Home ministry with paramilitary troops on Ground.

Moreover Predator might not be cost effective in anti Naxal op as it's operating cost is $1500 per hour, minus the Hellfire Missile.

I am sure Indian looking for amred drone to counter Naxals, it would be great adavanatage for Indian forces if they use arned drone against naxalites.

 

[4GTejasBVR]

What could be Pakistan's response if India takes out terror outfits in Pakistan borders with full acknowledgements and proof provided to/by United States?

 

[Hellfire]

Ooh well....
Nice one mumbai like situation...cold start and army build up at border but no violation of LOC or airspace will be tolerated, MiG 25 should be shoot down but no orders was given at that time and no seriouse drone or UAV enters our airspace from Indian side. MIG came breaks the sound barrier and quickly returns to their airspace.

I gave Mumbai like case as the only specific situation wherein India may use them on cross LC strike on a case by case basis and not as a regular feature.

As you must be aware and would agree, having served with AD and in that illustriously long career you must have surely worked with Surveillance and Target Acquisition Dets of your forces, and knowing the air Defence network on ground on your side, the airspace protection in terms of RADARs in LC region is sketchy at best, due to the topographical layout inadvertently creating blind spots. On top of that, the UAVs are indeed silent beasts and one is able to make out, if at all, only a solitary bulb of indication light as it travels overhead and in the dark of night you only know it is there if you happen to be continuously looking for it. So the task is actually doable, and hence the time gap between a potential strike and your massive retaliation is sufficient to negate/check the same. However, my point remains, on the backdrop of a potential strike by India, is Pakistan prepared to put itself into a situation wherein it looses control over affairs for a solitary strike on Islamists and convicts? Wouldn't the GoP and PA indeed like to wrap it and portray the same as some explosion of stores etc rather than risk an all out war?

As for the Mig 25s, the case of sonic boom was a solitary incident to project our continuous penetration of your airspace with not a single intercept ever by Pakistan in two decades of regular sorties into its airspace nor by China in its airspace. We had been conducting regular overflights in both nations, indeed, the decommissioning ceremony of Mig 25s at Trishul AFB in Bareilly was quite an open and eye opening affair ... And this was all non classified. Anyways, not the point of discussion

 

[Maj.Osmani]

I gave Mumbai like case as the only specific situation wherein India may use them on cross LC strike on a case by case basis and not as a regular feature.

As you must be aware and would agree, having served with AD and in that illustriously long career you must have surely worked with Surveillance and Target Acquisition Dets of your forces, and knowing the air Defence network on ground on your side, the airspace protection in terms of RADARs in LC region is sketchy at best, due to the topographical layout inadvertently creating blind spots. On top of that, the UAVs are indeed silent beasts and one is able to make out, if at all, only a solitary bulb of indication light as it travels overhead and in the dark of night you only know it is there if you happen to be continuously looking for it. So the task is actually doable, and hence the time gap between a potential strike and your massive retaliation is sufficient to negate/check the same. However, my point remains, on the backdrop of a potential strike by India, is Pakistan prepared to put itself into a situation wherein it looses control over affairs for a solitary strike on Islamists and convicts? Wouldn't the GoP and PA indeed like to wrap it and portray the same as some explosion of stores etc rather than risk an all out war?

As for the Mig 25s, the case of sonic boom was a solitary incident to project our continuous penetration of your airspace with not a single intercept ever by Pakistan in two decades of regular sorties into its airspace nor by China in its airspace. We had been conducting regular overflights in both nations, indeed, the decommissioning ceremony of Mig 25s at Trishul AFB in Bareilly was quite an open and eye opening affair ... And this was all non classified. Anyways, not the point of discussion

In short i would like to say our Air Defense is quite modern as comparison to many, from Indian side we manage to cover full area no blind spot left and about UAV we can detect it very easily a quite slow flying in comparison to fighter jet and above all a defenseless creature against fighter jets and SAMs. Above all may be Indian still manage to cross in but i must say it would be a suicidal mission for the Drone.

There are many branches of armed forces involved in Air defense. First of all Pakistan Air Defense command have full access to all radars data, Air Force Air Defense and Pakistan Army air defense, we are all working together.

 

[duhastmish]

What could be Pakistan's response if India takes out terror outfits in Pakistan borders with full acknowledgements and proof provided to/by United States?

All out war. India have no such relations or Pakistani dependence.
India don't have such far away proximity to hit and Pakistan have to keep mute for distance of retaliation.
Pakistani and Indian have a history which may screw up such action into a big war.

India won't take such action and Pakistan won't retaliate with non state actor openly.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I am watching your posts on different threads. Sorry to say you are not the person I should engage in discussion.


No Sir India is not US or we don't have any hidden or open agreement like we have with US, Retaliation would be massive i would like to have professional opinion from Mr. @Joe Shearer

The fact is, Sir, there are doctrinal definitions of what to do on the Pakistani side; we are aware of that. We are just not definitely and conclusively aware of what form or what extent that retaliation might take.

Entirely as guess-work, without any pretence at speaking for the military, I should imagine that the following sequences may be seen:

1. Unarmed and armed drones are sent out by India over Pakistani air-space;
2. These are detected, in some cases, and are shot down, in some cases;
3. Pakistan might fly drones in her turn, and in her turn, India might try to detect them and to shoot them down;

The difficulty in extrapolating further lies in this:

1. We more or less know that infiltration by irregulars will be punished by detecting and liquidating the irregulars themselves. No other action, against their bases or their protecting regular Army units is contemplated at the moment (this could change rapidly, if the situation deteriorated).
2. Attacks by regular Army personnel, or shelling, or significant movement near the borders, will each of them attract responses which are keyed to the nature of the provocation.
3. Short of a brigade level or a division level intrusion, there is likely to be no extraordinary retaliatory move.

All this will remain sidelined if Pakistan has a doctrine that dictates the kind of response she might have. There might be the option for major retaliation on boundaries being crossed successively. We can't say. Only someone familiar with the detailed doctrine will be able to comment meaningfully.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Do we need Predators? I think India is more interested to have MQ-4C Tritons for navy to complement P-8Is.

Exactly, there is no imminent need for the Predator at all, the armed forces can wait for the Rustom-2 armed with the Helina. The REAL game changer as far as the armed forces are concerned vis a vis UAVs with the NTCR admission is the MQ-4C that the In has been after for a while now. It is the perfect complement to their P-8Is, in fact it is designed to be explictly.

Two missiles.

4 missiles, 2 PGMs and an ISR pod.

But I agree with you, India doesn't need Predator or Reaper (or Avenger) and is mainly looking at long-range maritime ISR UAVs, but they're still a nice piece of kit that outclasses anything you currently have.

That picture is of the Rustom-1, the Rustom-2 will have a higher payload capacity but, yes, your points still stand and that is EXACTLY why the Predator shouldn't be bought; to give the domestic project a chance to come on par with the Predator. There is literally no existing need for an armed drone in India- none, so the domestic projects can take their time to mature.

 

[Maj.Osmani]

The fact is, Sir, there are doctrinal definitions of what to do on the Pakistani side; we are aware of that. We are just not definitely and conclusively aware of what form or what extent that retaliation might take.

Entirely as guess-work, without any pretence at speaking for the military, I should imagine that the following sequences may be seen:

1. Unarmed and armed drones are sent out by India over Pakistani air-space;
2. These are detected, in some cases, and are shot down, in some cases;
3. Pakistan might fly drones in her turn, and in her turn, India might try to detect them and to shoot them down;

The difficulty in extrapolating further lies in this:

1. We more or less know that infiltration by irregulars will be punished by detecting and liquidating the irregulars themselves. No other action, against their bases or their protecting regular Army units is contemplated at the moment (this could change rapidly, if the situation deteriorated).
2. Attacks by regular Army personnel, or shelling, or significant movement near the borders, will each of them attract responses which are keyed to the nature of the provocation.
3. Short of a brigade level or a division level intrusion, there is likely to be no extraordinary retaliatory move.

All this will remain sidelined if Pakistan has a doctrine that dictates the kind of response she might have. There might be the option for major retaliation on boundaries being crossed successively. We can't say. Only someone familiar with the detailed doctrine will be able to comment meaningfully.

Very well said but being a part of army for many years I would like to say border violation of any kind from Indian side would be retaliates aggressively. In case of US violation you can say it happens with some sort of mutual understanding.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I served in air defense for 25 years and believe me our border with India always on alert you can send Drones but i am 100% sure it will be suicidal mission for the poor drone. Retaliation would be air strikes back to your bases where drones takeoff and eventually there would be all out war.

Ah, I see; that is what you had in mind.

Yes, there is a possibility, but that will depend on what the nature of deployment will be. If these systems are not deployed with Air Force units, using airfields, then the kind of retaliation that will take place may be different from the kind that focusses on airfields.

In addition, of the two, Pakistan is less well-equipped to hold out in a war of attrition. Let me explain that.

Assuming that an aggressive use of drones draws out retaliation in large numbers from the Pakistani side, that will be through either drones themselves, armed ones, or through fighters or attack planes. If it is drones, we are likely to achieve similar kill ratios as Pakistan originally does; in that case, a larger number of drones being flown by Pakistan than by India, and a similar kill ratio, will mean that Pakistan loses a greater absolute number of drones. Here, now, is the dilemma that a Pakistani planner will face. It is likely - not confirmed, but likely - that the total number of drones in inventory with the Pakistani armed forces will be lower than the total number in inventory on the Indian side. It will mean that the more Pakistan increases the number of drones, the greater and more disproportionate attrition of materiel will take place.

Let us take the case of drone flights being retaliated against by manned aircraft flights. We must remember that air defenses on the sub-continent, on both sides, are far superior to what they were in 1965 or even in 1971. It is reasonable to assume that the impact of these air defenses on manned aircraft flying combat missions is as damaging, in terms of numbers, as the impact on drones; only this is worse, because in value terms, manned aircraft are far more expensive than UAVs. And nothing can replace the loss of an aviator.

In my humble opinion, the best offensive strategy, if the Indian state were at all belligerent in nature, and if at all the men who wish to take extreme steps, the generals, were to be heard favourably, the best kind of offensive for India would be one where there is an enormous amount of economic value involved on a daily basis. Pakistan would bleed to death earlier than India.

 

[Dawood Ibrahim]

Please with these drones start monitoring your RSS and other extremist group and you will be safe. The advise is free

 

[Joe Shearer]

I am sure Indian looking for amred drone to counter Naxals, it would be great adavanatage for Indian forces if they use arned drone against naxalites.

There I respectfully differ from you and from many of my countrymen. These weapons should never be used against Indian citizens, even Indian citizens engaged in war against the state. Certainly surveillance drones can, and should be used, but not armed drones.

Besides the illegality of using these weapons against civilians, there is the complete lack of confidence in the way in which the Naxalite situation is being handled. There is zero effort at ameliorating the basic conditions which breed insurgency. It is not at all difficult, but our governments in the most affected states are quite insensitive to the issues involved. Naturally; they themselves represent the forces of oppression, social and economic oppression both, that the Naxalites are rebelling against.

I believe that the action against the Naxalites has to be radically different. My solution is for an echeloned approach, the cutting, battle end being constituted of mobile sections of close combat trained policemen, empowered under the law to open fire, without invoking AFSPA, backed up by defensively armed larger formations of policemen with defensive equipment and arms, backed up by the logistics and engineering layer, backed up by a civilian layer capable of the same logistics and engineering performance, but with civil engineering capabilities added, backed up by an administrative layer reinstalling the machinery of state - housing, schools, hospitals, post offices, law courts, land record registration offices, other, forest-oriented administration offices, technical institutions teaching appropriate skills, teamed with placement and job creation agencies. Finally, right outside all these concentric rings and layers would be the unrestrained private sector, but filtered in terms of composition by restricting a majority of jobs available within that sector to the underprivileged sectors of SC, ST, minorities and women.

I have a complete blueprint, and feel anguished at the futile bloodshed of which both sides are guilty.

Ooh well....
Nice one mumbai like situation...cold start and army build up at border but no violation of LOC or airspace will be tolerated, MiG 25 should be shoot down but no orders was given at that time and no seriouse drone or UAV enters our airspace from Indian side. MIG came breaks the sound barrier and quickly returns to their airspace.

@hellfire , that was the point, wasn't it? that reconnaisance should be done at an altitude and speed that would make it not worthwhile to scramble to intercept the flight. Although, as the MiG 25 itself proved, it is possible to trap an intruder; you must be aware of the multi-point, multi-directional ambush of an SR71 at least once by closely coordinated individual flights of MiG 25s.

 

[Maj.Osmani]

Ah, I see; that is what you had in mind.

Yes, there is a possibility, but that will depend on what the nature of deployment will be. If these systems are not deployed with Air Force units, using airfields, then the kind of retaliation that will take place may be different from the kind that focusses on airfields.

In addition, of the two, Pakistan is less well-equipped to hold out in a war of attrition. Let me explain that.

Assuming that an aggressive use of drones draws out retaliation in large numbers from the Pakistani side, that will be through either drones themselves, armed ones, or through fighters or attack planes. If it is drones, we are likely to achieve similar kill ratios as Pakistan originally does; in that case, a larger number of drones being flown by Pakistan than by India, and a similar kill ratio, will mean that Pakistan loses a greater absolute number of drones. Here, now, is the dilemma that a Pakistani planner will face. It is likely - not confirmed, but likely - that the total number of drones in inventory with the Pakistani armed forces will be lower than the total number in inventory on the Indian side. It will mean that the more Pakistan increases the number of drones, the greater and more disproportionate attrition of materiel will take place.

Let us take the case of drone flights being retaliated against by manned aircraft flights. We must remember that air defenses on the sub-continent, on both sides, are far superior to what they were in 1965 or even in 1971. It is reasonable to assume that the impact of these air defenses on manned aircraft flying combat missions is as damaging, in terms of numbers, as the impact on drones; only this is worse, because in value terms, manned aircraft are far more expensive than UAVs. And nothing can replace the loss of an aviator.

In my humble opinion, the best offensive strategy, if the Indian state were at all belligerent in nature, and if at all the men who wish to take extreme steps, the generals, were to be heard favourably, the best kind of offensive for India would be one where there is an enormous amount of economic value involved on a daily basis. Pakistan would bleed to death earlier than India.

Very well said but retaliation with armed drones out of context, for sure we may use fighter Jets and its not matter from where they takeoff any nearby airfield or base will be pounded.

The last option Sir Indian tried already when last military standoff happened, Indian Navy blockade Karachi and huge border buildup but end result you can see there were more losses and expenses on your side. Anyways nice discussion

 

[Joe Shearer]

Please with these drones start monitoring your RSS and other extremist group and you will be safe. The advise is free

An outstanding contribution to the discussion. You must be a general, at least.

 

[duhastmish]

An outstanding contribution to the discussion. You must be a general, at least.

And you are friggin awesome I cracked so fooking hard.

Man what a bloody reply.