Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations :coffee:

[ST1976]

Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations ​

The success of this project will help the world make progress in moving past the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition and correspondingly create more opportunities for other countries to strengthen their strategic autonomy in the New Cold War.

Russian Transportation Minister Valery Savelyev just recognized the vital role that Iran plays for his country’s logistics nowadays through the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC). According to him, the US-led West’s unprecedented sanctions that were imposed in response to Russia’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine “have practically broken all the logistics in our country. And we are forced to look for new logistics corridors.” The primary one that his country is prioritizing is the NSTC through Iran, pointing out that three Caspian Sea ports already serve as trade conduits with the Islamic Republic while also acknowledging that there’s still a lot of work to be done on overland connectivity.

It was already predicted shortly after the onset of Russia’s special operation that Iran would become so much more important to Russia. This is because the NSTC functions as a trans-civilizational integration corridor connecting Russia’s historically Christian civilization, Iran’s Islamic one, and India’s Hindu civilization, not to mention the others such as those in Africa and Southeast Asia that can indirectly be linked to Russia via that route. It’s an irreplaceable valve from the US-led West’s economic and financial pressure that’s created such logistical difficulties for Russia in recent months, especially since it connects to India, which has defied Western pressure by continuing to practice its policy of principled neutrality.

Without Iran’s leading participation in the NSTC, Russia would be cut off from its indispensable Indian partners whose decisive intervention preemptively averted its potentially disproportionate dependence on China in the future. This outcome in turn helped the world make progress in moving past the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition to multipolarity that’s seen International Relations largely shaped by the competition between the American and Chinese superpowers. It’s now becoming increasingly possible to speak of a third pole of influence represented by the grand strategic convergence between Russia, Iran, and India.

It’s not officially acknowledged by their diplomats in order to avoid the American and/or Chinese superpowers misunderstanding their civilization-states’ intentions, but all three are informally trying to assemble a new Non-Aligned Movement (“Neo-NAM”). They hope to serve as equal centers of gravity within the third pole of influence that they hope to create for moving International Relations past its present bi-multipolar intermediary phase and towards a system of “tripolarity” that they expect to inevitably facilitate the emergence of complex multipolarity. The purpose behind doing so is to maximize their respective strategic autonomy within the New Cold War vis a vis the two superpowers.

The international implications of their plan succeeding would literally be game-changing, which explains why efforts are actively underway to stop them. These have taken the form of the Associated Press leading the US-led Western Mainstream Media’s (MSM) infowar campaign against the Russian-Iranian Strategic Partnership while other outlets are waging a complementary one against the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership. Both have failed since their leaderships are inspired by their shared multipolar conservative-sovereigntist (MCS) worldview to stay the course despite considerable pressure after their strategists presumably assured them that it’ll all be worth it in the end as long as they remain patient.

This stands in contrast to their Pakistani neighbor, which compellingly appears to be in the process of recalibrating its grand strategy and associated envisioned role in the global systemic transition following its scandalous change in government. The mixed signals that its new authorities have sent towards Russia in parallel with their enthusiastic outreach towards the US very strongly suggest that the MCS worldview previously embraced by former Prime Minister Khan is being gradually replaced to an uncertain extent by the Western-friendly unipolar liberal-globalist (ULG) one. This complicates multipolar processes in South Asia and risks isolating Pakistan from them in the worst-case scenario.

Nevertheless, Pakistan doesn’t have any intention of interfering with the NSTC even if it were to enter into a full-fledged and extremely rapid rapprochement with the US. This observation means that the grand strategic convergence between Russia, Iran, and India will continue, with those last two becoming even more important to Moscow than ever as valves from Western pressure and reliable alternatives to preemptively avert any potentially disproportionate dependence on China. Pakistan was supposed to play a complementary role in Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) by also serving to balance Moscow’s growing reliance on Tehran and New Delhi, but this appears unlikely in light of recent events.

With relations practically frozen on the energy front that was envisioned as laying the basis of their hoped-for strategic partnership, there’s little chance that Russia will ever consider Pakistan to be more important to its “Ummah Pivot” than Iran is quickly becoming unless these issues are urgently resolved. In all likelihood, they probably won’t be, and this dismal prediction is due to the educated conjecture that Pakistan’s new authorities consider slowing the pace of their rapprochement with Russia to be an “acceptable unilateral concession” in exchange for continuing talks on improving ties with the US, which is their new foreign policy priority.

Even though baby steps were recently seen in restoring their relations, new Foreign Minister Bhutto’s interview with the Associated Press during his inaugural trip to America to attend a UN event and meet one-on-one with Blinken cast doubt upon Islamabad’s interest in resuming energy talks with Russia. According to the outlet, he revealed that “his focus in talks with Blinken was on increasing trade, particularly in agriculture, information technology and energy.” This suggests that America is trying to “poach” Russia’s reported deal with Pakistan for providing it with food and fuel at a 30% discount, perhaps even offering less of a discount – if any at all – as a “necessary cost” for improving ties.

The predictable outcome of Pakistan deciding not to resume energy talks with Russia is that Iran and India’s importance for Russian grand strategy will continue growing without being kept in check by the Pakistani balancing factor that Moscow had previously taken for granted. That won’t be a problem unless they politicize their role as valves from Western pressure, which they’re reluctant to do anyhow since that would risk undermining their shared MCS interests in the global systemic transition through the Neo-NAM. Nevertheless, it’s still important to point out that the practical removal of Pakistan’s balancing influence in this paradigm increases Russia’s dependence on Iran and India.

With or without Russian-Pakistani relations becoming strategic like Moscow hoped would happen and consequently helping to balance its envisioned Neo-NAM, there’s little doubt that the axis that Russia is assembling with Iran and India will continue strengthening as these three jointly pursue the creation of a third pole of influence in International Relations. The success of this project will help the world make progress in moving past the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition and correspondingly create more opportunities for other countries to strengthen their strategic autonomy in the New Cold War.

Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations - TheAltWorld

The success of this project will help the world make progress in moving past the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition

thealtworld.com

 

[ST1976]

India developing Chabahar Port holds ‘great value’ to landlocked Central Asian states: PM Modi​

In May, India signed a 10-year contract to operate the strategic Iranian port of Chabahar which will help it expand trade with Central Asia.​

External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar delivering India's statement at the Summit of SCO Council of Heads of States on behalf of PM Modi, in Astana (PTI)

The progress made by India in developing Iran’s Chabahar Port not only holds “great value” to landlocked Central Asian states but also “de-risks” commerce between India and Eurasia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who is in Astana to attend the SCO Summit, delivered Modi’s remarks at the extended format meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of State here in the Kazakh capital.

He also said, “While standing resolute on challenges, it is equally important to actively and collaboratively explore avenues of progress. The current global debate is focused on creating new connectivity linkages that would better serve a rebalanced world.” “If this is to gather serious momentum, it requires the joint efforts of many. It must also be respectful of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states and be built on the foundation of non-discriminatory trade and transit rights to neighbours.” “For the SCO extended family, we flag the progress made on Chabahar port recently through a long-term agreement between India and Iran. This not only holds great value to landlocked Central Asian states but also de-risks commerce between India and Eurasia,” he said.

The Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman – which India proposed to develop way back in 2003 – will provide Indian goods with a gateway to reach landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia using a road and rail project called the International North-South Transport Corridor, bypassing Pakistan.

US sanctions on Iran over its suspected nuclear programme had slowed the development of the port.

In May, India signed a 10-year contract to operate the strategic Iranian port of Chabahar which will help it expand trade with Central Asia.

Chabahar port was last year used by India to send 20,000 tonnes of wheat aid to Afghanistan. In 2021, the same was used to supply environmentally friendly pesticides to Iran.

This is the first time India will take over the management of an overseas port that will also have a multiplier effect on trade among India, Iran and Afghanistan as efforts continue to directly tap the potential in Central Asia, bypassing neighbouring Pakistan.

India has been developing a part of the Chabahar Port and discussions on the development of the port date back to 2003 during Iranian President Muhammad Khatami’s visit to India.

Chabahar is an oceanic port. By leveraging Chabahar Port, India aims to bypass Pakistan and establish direct access to Afghanistan and beyond, into Central Asia. Kandla port in Gujarat is the closest to the Chabahar port at 550 nautical miles while the distance between Chabahar and Mumbai is 786 nautical miles.

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/india-developing-chabahar-port-holds-great-value-to-landlocked-central-asian-states-pm-modi-9433568/

 

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Does India risk US sanctions over Iran’s Chabahar Port deal?​

India-Iran port deal: A gateway to Central Asia or a geostrategic headache?

The port deal could help India strengthen trade ties with Central Asia. But a US sanctions threat clouds the pact.

www.aljazeera.com

Can the US sanction India over the deal?​

The US has imposed limited sanctions on India’s science establishment twice in the past — in 1974 and 1998 — after New Delhi carried out nuclear tests.

But since the end of the Cold War, India and the US have strengthened relations significantly, and today count each other as among the closest of strategic partners. Even though India officially does not recognise any sanctions imposed on nations unless they have been approved by the United Nations, it has played along, for the most part, with US-led sanctions against Iran.

Until a few years ago, India counted Iran among its top oil suppliers. However, since 2018, when then-US President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed tough sanctions on Tehran, India has voided buying any Iranian oil.

Yet, back in 2018, New Delhi successfully lobbied Washington to secure specific exemptions to the sanctions related to Chabahar because of the promise that the transit route could help Afghanistan, a key security interest for the US at the time. An under-construction railway link connecting the Chabahar Port to Afghanistan was also exempt from the sanctions.

But India’s friendship with Iran now, when Tehran’s backing of Palestinian armed group Hamas in Gaza has invited even more US sanctions, puts New Delhi in a tight spot. Afghanistan has also ceased to be a key interest for the US since it pulled out of the country in 2021, some analysts point out.

Still, experts do not anticipate sweeping sanctions against India.

“Sanctioning the Indian economy on such a minor issue is highly unlikely,” said Gulshan Sachdeva of New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University. “In the worst case scenario only entities involved in the Chabahar Port deal may come under some sanctions,” he told Al Jazeera.

What would US sanctions on India mean?​

India is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. But any US sanctions on the country will likely be contained and will not affect global trade, analysts say.

US sanctions on Iran have already hit India hard before. The Chabahar Port exemptions under Trump did not extend to infrastructure initiatives that would have allowed India to connect up with Central Asian nations located further inland, for instance, hampering India’s ambitions. India’s decision to avoid buying Iranian oil to avoid the risk of US sanctions has also left it more vulnerable to price pressures from other suppliers.

But if the US does try to play tough over Chabahar, some analysts believe that India will push back harder than it has in the past.

“Chabahar is more important, and New Delhi is willing to work to keep it alive for the long run,” said analyst Taneja.

If India pushes ahead despite a real threat of US sanctions, that would be a signal to Washington, said Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based think tank.

“Global South states will continue to pursue their own interests despite Washington’s preferences to make them align with its strategic objectives,” he said.

“Washington ought to re-evaluate its policies that force choices on the Global South that can alienate them and limit US opportunities in this vast, largely unaligned space.”

India-Iran port deal: A gateway to Central Asia or a geostrategic headache?

The port deal could help India strengthen trade ties with Central Asia. But a US sanctions threat clouds the pact.

www.aljazeera.com

 

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Chabahar Port: US says sanctions possible after India-Iran port deal​

India has been developing the strategically important Chabahar port, close to Iran's border with Pakistan

The US has warned of potential sanctions for any country considering business deals with Iran, hours after India signed a 10-year contract to operate a port with Tehran.

India had entered an agreement to develop the strategically important Chabahar port, close to Iran's border with Pakistan, in 2016.

On Monday, it signed a long-term deal with Iran to develop it further.

India's shipping minister called it a "historic moment in India-Iran ties".

But the move may not go down well with the US, which has imposed more than 600 sanctions on Iranian-related entities over the past three years.

In a press briefing on Tuesday, the country's State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said, when asked about the deal, that the US sanctions on Iran are still in place and that Washington would continue to enforce them.

"Any entity, anyone considering business deals with Iran - they need to be aware of the potential risks that they are opening themselves up to and the potential risk of sanctions," he said.
India has not responded to the statement yet.

India took over operations of the port at the end of 2018. The port opened a transit route for Indian goods and products to Afghanistan and Central Asia, avoiding the land route through Pakistan - neighbours India and Pakistan share a tense relationship.
So far, 2.5m tonnes of wheat and 2,000 tonnes of pulses have been shipped from India to Afghanistan through Chabahar port, officials say.

On Monday, India's shipping ministry said that the Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL) and the Port & Maritime Organisation of Iran signed a long-term deal for the development of the port.

Under the agreement, IPGL will invest about $120 million with an additional $250 million in financing, bringing the contract's value to $370 million, said Iran's Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazrpash.

India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said the deal "will clear the pathway for bigger investments to be made in the port".

Chabahar Port: US says sanctions possible after India-Iran port deal

India has signed a 10-year-deal to develop the strategically important Chabahar port in Iran.

www.bbc.com

 

[ST1976]

Russia-India Trade to Boom via Iran Using INSTC Route​

International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) Corridor is set to revolutionize trade between India, Russia, and other key regions through a multi-modal network spanning 7,200 kilometers (4,500 miles). This expansive corridor, involving ship, rail, and road routes, is designed to streamline freight movement across India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe, enhancing connectivity and reducing transportation costs significantly.

Objectives: The INSTC represents a transformative development in international trade logistics, offering a promising avenue for enhanced economic cooperation and growth across the involved regions. By reducing transit times and costs, the corridor is set to significantly boost trade volumes, fostering closer economic ties and mutual prosperity.

Enhancing Connectivity and Reducing Costs: Initiated to provide a more efficient alternative to traditional shipping routes, the INSTC is poised to cut both time and expenses for transporting goods. Studies indicate that the corridor can reduce transport costs by “$2,500 per 15 tons of cargo.” The route primarily navigates through India, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia, incorporating strategic ports and railways that form an integrated network aimed at fostering economic ties and trade efficiency.

Key Infrastructure and Developments:

a) Chabahar and Bandar Abbas Ports: India and Iran’s longstanding agreement, established in 2002, focuses on developing Chabahar into a full deep-sea port. Meanwhile, Bandar Abbas, which manages 85% of Iran’s seaborne trade, faces congestion issues that Chabahar’s development aims to alleviate.
b) Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Iran Railway Link: Operational since 2014, this 677-km (421 miles) railway connects Uzen in Kazakhstan to Gorgan in Iran, through Turkmenistan. It integrates into Iran’s national rail network, linking to Persian Gulf ports, thereby extending the reach of the INSTC.

Strategic Trade Moves

a) Russia’s Coal Export via INSTC: Russia is set to export coal to India using the INSTC, with cargo transiting through Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. This initiative was highlighted during the 27th Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum. By leveraging the INSTC, Russia aims to enhance the efficiency of its coal exports to India, reducing transit times from 45 days to just 15 days.

b) Maritime Collaboration: Iran and Russia are also working together in the maritime sector to utilize the Caspian Sea, further shortening the transit route between the two nations. The Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) has allocated 300 containers for transporting goods between Russia and India, with plans to increase this number based on demand.

Future Projections and Economic Impact

a) Increased Freight Volume: In 2023, Russia transported 600,000 tons of freight through Iran. This volume is projected to surge to 4 million tons per year by 2024, underscoring the INSTC’s pivotal role in regional trade.

b) Economic Benefits for Iran: With the anticipated rise in transit traffic, Iran is poised to earn several billion dollars in transit fees, capitalizing on its strategic geographic position and extensive railway network.

c) Strengthening Bilateral Trade: Through these collaborative efforts, Russia aims to bolster its trade links with India, utilizing Iran’s strategic location to facilitate the swift and cost-effective movement of goods.
The results showed transport costs were reduced by “$2,500 per 15 tons of cargo”. Other routes under consideration include via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Russia to Export Coal to India through Iran

Russia plans to transit coal to India via the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC) passing through Iran, IRNA reported. According to the report, Russian coal will be shipped to India through Iran’s southern Bandar Abbas port, leveraging the INSTC’s extensive network. The corridor, which spans East, West, and Middle routes, is designed to enhance connectivity and reduce transportation time and costs.
Strategic Maritime Cooperation: In addition to utilizing land routes, Iran and Russia are cooperating in the maritime sector to use the Caspian Sea, further shortening the transit route from Russia to India. Last year, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) assigned 300 containers for transporting goods between Russia and India. These containers are part of the first phase of a program aimed at facilitating the transit of Russian commodities to India via the Caspian Sea. “According to the plans made by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, in the first phase, 300 containers have been considered for transporting cargos to Russia, and if the demand increases, the number of these containers will increase continuously,” an IRISL statement noted.

Boosting Trade Volume between Russia & India: Russia has announced plans to export 73.2 million tonnes of coal to India through Iranian ports. The IRISL has prepared 300 vessels to facilitate this trade, which is expected to reduce the transit time for Russian goods from 45 days to just 15 days. This initiative is projected to generate several billion dollars in transit fees for Iran. In 2023, Russia transported 600,000 tons of freight through Iran, a figure expected to rise to 4 million tons per year by 2024, according to Russia’s deputy minister of transport. This significant increase highlights the strategic importance of the INSTC for regional trade and cooperation.