As I have said in other threads, Pak has to play the long game. My rant was mainly to make it clear that this nonsense of blaming PTI for “pro”-IEA policies of 2021 muddles the fact that the estb ALSO was & is in agreement with them. So stop playing politics.
The reality is that an Afg gov that is demonstrably pro-Pak is almost completely impossible for now. However, the reality is that state believes IEA ruled Afg is a much better prospect for the following reasons:
1) TTP insurgency was supported by the ethnonats as well. Nothing has changed in this regard.
2) We have more leverage on IEA than the republic. IEA depends on us at the end of the day. The republic didn’t. For better or worse, no one other than us will present their case.
3) ”Islamic” Taliban is better than republic b/c they can’t use ethnic narrative to separate KPK from Pak. Even TTP is, on the surface at least, not a separatist org.
4) Eventually Afg will become more moderate. Might not be like Saudi but it’s almost certain they will. With that, support for a supposedly religious insurgency will also die out. All Pak has to do is contain it & let its flame burn out.
5) Vast majority of pro-IEA Pakistanis only supported them b/c of fight against US. They wont be so kind once the guns are turned on them. Pro-IEA zeal will also naturally decrease since there’s no demonstrable enemy like the US. also, they’ll observe IEA struggle in reconciling modern realities with their version of Sharia & just general governance.
Pakistan has the following goals for Afg:
1) Peace & Stability
2) Recognition of Border
3) Prevent Afg soil to be used against it & others
Pakistan has multiple ways to accomplish this
1) Economic
Make Afg economy depend on well being of ours. Allow them to export (low or no tariffs) to us even if it means competition for our rent seekers. For our part, sell them the industrial goods or raw materials they need Needless to say, sort out the border visa & clearance issues. Bad behaviour results in closing the border and/or temp increase in tariffs.
Build a rail line and/or pipeline from/to Central Asia & allow them to collect any transit fees.
Get the great powers to invest in Afg (mining seems the best bet for now)
Encourage tourism b/w the countries
Unfortunately, building economic ties may help keep them in check but it won’t reduce hostility.
2) Military
Train their officers. Obtain their loyalty to us if possible. Same way Americans do it.
Give their soldiers CT training.
Sell CT equipment. Have monitoring teams to ensure TTP doesn’t obtain them.
Offer joint mil & intel Ops against ISKP in return for help against TTP. Get them to target pro-ISKP factions of TTP to create mistrust b/w the 2.
3) Media
In reality, THIS should have been Pakistan’s main focus. Fund pro-Pak journalists & org. Create documentaries, books, etc which include Pak version of events & promote them in Afg.
4) Form something similar to EU or SCO with Afg plus other Muslim countries.
This way they will be forced by treaties to help fight TTP. Furthermore, the presence of non-Afghans will suppress Afghan ethnonats & generally reduce Afghan influence since Pak is almost certainly going to be the core of the alliance.