Tabriz Azari
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Russia and Turkey are in a race for Syrian-Kurdistan. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Vladimir Putin’s Middle East Special Envoy Mikhail Bogdanov met with the leaders of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), the main force controlling the Kurdish areas in northern Syria. That undeclared meeting in Erbil coincided with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s visit to Iraqi Kurdistan on July 31, 2012.
The central government in Iraq made a formal protest to Turkey's envoy in Baghdad Friday after the Turkish foreign minister made a surprise visit to an oil-rich Iraqi city claimed by both the central government and the country's autonomous Kurdistan region. Turkey has been receiving oil from Iraqi-Kurdistan without the approval of the central government in Iraq.
Iraq's Foreign Ministry accused Turkey of violating its constitution with the visit, saying that Davutoglu had neither asked for nor obtained permission to enter Kirkuk. In response, Turkey summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Ankara and warned Baghdad to be “careful” in its remarks.
The Kurds have become a major player in northern Syria after the Syrian army left the area to concentrate on other fronts. And the Turks are threatening to intervene in northern Syria. In Turkey’s Kurdish areas, there are daily clashes involving the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Turkey is in a lose/lose situation. If Assad falls, a part of Syria will likely become a strong PKK staging ground against Turkey, which will also lead to 19 million Kurds in Turkey further pressing for independence. And if Assad retains power Turkey will have a Syria that will view Turkey as a proxy for extremist elements from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and NATO. Turkey's own significant Shia population may also become a fifth column within Turkey in light of Turkey's attempt to topple Bashar Assad.
Already Turkey's support for the uprising in Syria has strained relations between Iran and Turkey. Moreover, Turkey will not have good relations with Armenia (which is protected by Russia) in the foreseeable future. Turkey also has poor relations with Greece and France, and will be hard-pressed to get into the EU. And the latest strain is between Turkey and the central government in Iraq just adds to Turkey's problems.
Turkey is in a bad situation all around and its own future is in jeopardy because of its recent gambles on Syria.
I certainly don't mean to make any forecasts because the consequences of Turkey's choices cannot be scientifically predicted, but I will say this: Turkey is gambling with its own security because it cannot be sure how events will unfold either.
The central government in Iraq made a formal protest to Turkey's envoy in Baghdad Friday after the Turkish foreign minister made a surprise visit to an oil-rich Iraqi city claimed by both the central government and the country's autonomous Kurdistan region. Turkey has been receiving oil from Iraqi-Kurdistan without the approval of the central government in Iraq.
Iraq's Foreign Ministry accused Turkey of violating its constitution with the visit, saying that Davutoglu had neither asked for nor obtained permission to enter Kirkuk. In response, Turkey summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Ankara and warned Baghdad to be “careful” in its remarks.
The Kurds have become a major player in northern Syria after the Syrian army left the area to concentrate on other fronts. And the Turks are threatening to intervene in northern Syria. In Turkey’s Kurdish areas, there are daily clashes involving the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Turkey is in a lose/lose situation. If Assad falls, a part of Syria will likely become a strong PKK staging ground against Turkey, which will also lead to 19 million Kurds in Turkey further pressing for independence. And if Assad retains power Turkey will have a Syria that will view Turkey as a proxy for extremist elements from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and NATO. Turkey's own significant Shia population may also become a fifth column within Turkey in light of Turkey's attempt to topple Bashar Assad.
Already Turkey's support for the uprising in Syria has strained relations between Iran and Turkey. Moreover, Turkey will not have good relations with Armenia (which is protected by Russia) in the foreseeable future. Turkey also has poor relations with Greece and France, and will be hard-pressed to get into the EU. And the latest strain is between Turkey and the central government in Iraq just adds to Turkey's problems.
Turkey is in a bad situation all around and its own future is in jeopardy because of its recent gambles on Syria.
I certainly don't mean to make any forecasts because the consequences of Turkey's choices cannot be scientifically predicted, but I will say this: Turkey is gambling with its own security because it cannot be sure how events will unfold either.