Syria and the Consequences for the Region

[Tabriz Azari]

Russia and Turkey are in a race for Syrian-Kurdistan. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Vladimir Putin’s Middle East Special Envoy Mikhail Bogdanov met with the leaders of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), the main force controlling the Kurdish areas in northern Syria. That undeclared meeting in Erbil coincided with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s visit to Iraqi Kurdistan on July 31, 2012.

The central government in Iraq made a formal protest to Turkey's envoy in Baghdad Friday after the Turkish foreign minister made a surprise visit to an oil-rich Iraqi city claimed by both the central government and the country's autonomous Kurdistan region. Turkey has been receiving oil from Iraqi-Kurdistan without the approval of the central government in Iraq.

Iraq's Foreign Ministry accused Turkey of violating its constitution with the visit, saying that Davutoglu had neither asked for nor obtained permission to enter Kirkuk. In response, Turkey summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Ankara and warned Baghdad to be “careful” in its remarks.

The Kurds have become a major player in northern Syria after the Syrian army left the area to concentrate on other fronts. And the Turks are threatening to intervene in northern Syria. In Turkey’s Kurdish areas, there are daily clashes involving the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Turkey is in a lose/lose situation. If Assad falls, a part of Syria will likely become a strong PKK staging ground against Turkey, which will also lead to 19 million Kurds in Turkey further pressing for independence. And if Assad retains power Turkey will have a Syria that will view Turkey as a proxy for extremist elements from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and NATO. Turkey's own significant Shia population may also become a fifth column within Turkey in light of Turkey's attempt to topple Bashar Assad.

Already Turkey's support for the uprising in Syria has strained relations between Iran and Turkey. Moreover, Turkey will not have good relations with Armenia (which is protected by Russia) in the foreseeable future. Turkey also has poor relations with Greece and France, and will be hard-pressed to get into the EU. And the latest strain is between Turkey and the central government in Iraq just adds to Turkey's problems.

Turkey is in a bad situation all around and its own future is in jeopardy because of its recent gambles on Syria.

I certainly don't mean to make any forecasts because the consequences of Turkey's choices cannot be scientifically predicted, but I will say this: Turkey is gambling with its own security because it cannot be sure how events will unfold either.

 

[explorer9]

There is no surety of any strategic decision to be culminating in to the win-win situation. Turkey's decision to abandon Al-Assad and later on extending open support Syrian opposition is based on the certain geopolitical calculations i.e. religious ideology, ethnic composition and offcourse economic benefits. Turkey hopes that ethnic differences between Kurds, Turks, Arabs, etc, will be bridged by the common religious affiliation of Sunnite Islam amongst them. That will enable her to become the leader of Sunnite world.
Turkey is working according a well drafted plan to establish its direct influence on its old velyates of the Levant and Sunnite areas of Iraq that will enable it geography connect the very lucrative market of eastern & western Arabia. If Turkey succeeds in its plan then the oil and gas terminal at Ceyhan will become the hub for middle eastern and Caspian supply to Europe.

 

[Tabriz Azari]

"Turkey hopes that ethnic differences between Kurds, Turks, Arabs, etc, will be bridged by the common religious affiliation of Sunnite Islam amongst them."

Hope is a big word. Erdogan better hope the Al Qaeda members in the Syrian opposition are Ataturk fans, but somehow I doubt they are. But you're right ... there's a lot of hope involved.

 

[Serpentine]

From every angle I look at the situation,Turkey is not acting upon its interests.If Assad falls,it will have a strong Kurdish entity in its southern borders,Turkey fears this the most.Arming the rebels,is not what Turkey should have done.Its acts serve the purpose of Saudi Arabia,Qatar and U.S the most,more than Turkish government and nation.I don't know what they are thinking.

 

[thefreesyrian]

Turkey will be the winner if the minority shia alawite regime fall and replaced by a sunni arab regime

 

[Serpentine]

Turkey will be the winner if the minority shia alawite regime fall and replaced by a sunni arab regime

Sectarian flaming.Anyone surprised?

 

[thefreesyrian]

Sectarian flaming.Anyone surprised?

Are you serious ? Thats whats happening on the ground, even if you dont like it.

 

[twilight]

Sectarian flaming.Anyone surprised?

nope ...

but this FreeWestMercenaries thinking that he can fools turks members by his words .... ( well , If turks members belive in his words then I feel sorry for them .... )

go boy , everyone knew truth but someone want to do what west order to do ....

.............................

after all , in worst case if Syria fall , then we get closer to our predictions ... nothing more nothing less

 

[thefreesyrian]

Lol go read the main turkish newspaper, you will understand that the minority shia regime in syria is finished coz he didnt reform, and that iran are increasly looked as an ennemy with the support to PKK and that a regime constituted by a minority who are no more than 10% is a source of instability.
By the way, look at the arrogant and fascist way of top iranian general critizing turkey, how could they be a friend!?

 

[Serpentine]

Lol go read the main turkish newspaper, you will understand that the minority shia regime in syria is finished coz he didnt reform, and that iran are increasly looked as an ennemy with the support to PKK and that a regime constituted by a minority who are no more than 10% is a source of instability.
By the way, look at the arrogant and fascist way of top iranian general critizing turkey, how could they be a friend!?

Like it or not,Syria was one of few countries who helped us against Saddam's aggression.Unlike Arabs,we don't back stab the ones who helped us.
I respect 'true Syrians' for demanding more freedom or rights,but what I'm saying here is these rebels,mixed with Al Qaeda do not represent Syrians and they will do no good for Syria.The only thing they are seeking is sectarian war and violence in Syria.

I prefer,after Syrian army finish off rebels,then Assad can resign and a free and fair elections to be held across Syria,all parties included.

 

[thefreesyrian]

Like it or not,Syria was one of few countries who helped us against Saddam's aggression.Unlike Arabs,we don't back stab the ones who helped us.
I respect 'true Syrians' for demanding more freedom or rights,but what I'm saying here is these rebels,mixed with Al Qaeda do not represent Syrians and they will do no good for Syria.The only thing they are seeking is sectarian war and violence in Syria.

I prefer,after Syrian army finish off rebels,then Assad can resign and a free and fair elections to be held across Syria,all parties included.

To tell you the truth if assad helped you against saddam thats none of our business, and dont be silly accusing every sunni syrian of al qida coz this language is ugly and wont help your cause thats why there is much anti iranian in syria now.
By the way, this story of election coming from a little known family who seized power by military coup and since has done massacre after massacre is funny or sad.

 

[revojam]

I am sure many people also said Soviet Union going to nuke our cities when we deployed American WMDs on our soil during Cold War but we managed get out of cold war without a scrath(other then the stupid infighting between communists and grey wolves which triggered 80 coup in the end).Only time will show us our gambling was right or stupid

 

[ihealugo]

I am sure many people also said Soviet Union going to nuke our cities when we deployed American WMDs on our soil during Cold War but we managed get out of cold war without a scrath(other then the stupid infighting between communists and grey wolves which triggered 80 coup in the end).Only time will show us our gambling was right or stupid

and as a matter of fact now m PKK is killing daily soldiers of turkey and if this continue , turkey borders will see a KAOS in near future ............ and i', telling you , assad won't fall unless russia, iran and china don't support assad regime .......

 

[Tabriz Azari]

Lol go read the main turkish newspaper, you will understand that the minority shia regime in syria is finished coz he didnt reform, and that iran are increasly looked as an ennemy with the support to PKK and that a regime constituted by a minority who are no more than 10% is a source of instability.
By the way, look at the arrogant and fascist way of top iranian general critizing turkey, how could they be a friend!?

Turkey is working hand-in-hand with AlQaeda, the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia ... Fascist? One year ago people were living normal lives in Syria ... now there are bunch of guys pledging allegiance to Osama Bin Laden cutting people's heads off in the streets.

 

[Tabriz Azari]

...Thats why there is much anti iranian in syria now.

Anti-Iranian sentiment in Syria is fueled by Qatari and Saudi petrol dollars and close cooperation with Mossad to keep puppet governments afloat while they steal oil money from the people. A picture speaks a thousand words.