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Sukhoi PAK-FA / FGFA: Updates,News & Discussions

A photo of T-50-5R after repair flight
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Image posted by Gadeshi in another forum

Can some one explain whats that under its right wing?


Im thinking out loud, Is it newly designed side weapons bay door?
 
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@PARIKRAMA @SR-91 @Abingdonboy @GURU DUTT @Whazzup @ramu @samlove @migflug @MilSpec

Do you really think India could go for FGFA/ PAK FA, Raffale, LCA, and AMCA.
Either way India could affort 2 planes only in QTY. and either AMCA or FGFA could be there and 1 have to be dumped.


In all honesty AMCA may be the fall guy among the mentioned names. Possible bcz
1. Def ecosystem does not at present has a high precision private industry players in matured form in our Military industrial complex to possibly build anything 5th generation

2. The AMCA seems more of mix and match of everything - F22, F35, Pakfa, J20 and J31 and even Korean Kai50. Dont take me wrong but IAF ASQRs would like heaven made angel serving "amrit" which is not possible as of now

3. The possibility of 5th gen tech itself at the moment is unknown as Russian engine is still not online.. The other tech understanding and assimilation or procurement to incorporate into AMCA is a bigger challenge. ALso the capapbility fo local industry to absorb high precision tech is a bigger question mark.

4. Possibly the biggest blunder would be investing every year a corpus for next 15 years on AMCA which can be more used to stream line LCA, rafales, MKIs and Pakfa/FGFA

5.The timeline projected with no pvt player but rather ADE/HAL to deliver over 15 years is not only ambitious but rather a wish like we see in gospels about tooth fairy granting wish when u put ur broken milk teeth beneath your pillows.. The accountability issue with focus on LCA and FGFA means nothing left for HAL to focus on.. ADE can give the designs finalisation withs pecs but where will HAL build and when will HAL build when its whole manpower will be busy understanding FGFA and producing it

6.IF india CANCELS FGFA and opts for PAKFA only off the shelf then its even more diifcult for AMCA as self development will take much longer time

7. Practically AMCA needs far more maturity in our own abilities domestically as well as our in hand experience with 5th gen tech so its better we postpone AMCA project to 2030+ timezone

Personal views so i may be biased with my thinking.. But i am open to suggestions to change my thinking on this...
 
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In all honesty AMCA may be the fall guy among the mentioned names. Possible bcz
1. Def ecosystem does not at present has a high precision private industry players in matured form in our Military industrial complex to possibly build anything 5th generation

2. The AMCA seems more of mix and match of everything - F22, F35, Pakfa, J20 and J31 and even Korean Kai50. Dont take me wrong but IAF ASQRs would like heaven made angel serving "amrit" which is not possible as of now

3. The possibility of 5th gen tech itself at the moment is unknown as Russian engine is still not online.. The other tech understanding and assimilation or procurement to incorporate into AMCA is a bigger challenge. ALso the capapbility fo local industry to absorb high precision tech is a bigger question mark.

4. Possibly the biggest blunder would be investing every year a corpus for next 15 years on AMCA which can be more used to stream line LCA, rafales, MKIs and Pakfa/FGFA

5.The timeline projected with no pvt player but rather ADE/HAL to deliver over 15 years is not only ambitious but rather a wish like we see in gospels about tooth fairy granting wish when u put ur broken milk teeth beneath your pillows.. The accountability issue with focus on LCA and FGFA means nothing left for HAL to focus on.. ADE can give the designs finalisation withs pecs but where will HAL build and when will HAL build when its whole manpower will be busy understanding FGFA and producing it

6.IF india CANCELS FGFA and opts for PAKFA only off the shelf then its even more diifcult for AMCA as self development will take much longer time

7. Practically AMCA needs far more maturity in our own abilities domestically as well as our in hand experience with 5th gen tech so its better we postpone AMCA project to 2030+ timezone

Personal views so i may be biased with my thinking.. But i am open to suggestions to change my thinking on this...

I agree with you in most of your view but in some space in my heart says, yeh not logical that

1. India might reduce its FGFA to 36 nos
2. Modi give ADA its 2 billion what they are asking for AMCA R&D and development.
3. India partners with GE for F-414 EPE and US allowing help of GE for Kaveri-2.
4. India partners with Israel, Japan for its AMCA, Where Israel providing EW , Japan Optronic sensors, India Composites. and AMCA-N, AMCA AF, and AMCA- trainers are developed.
 
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I agree with you in most of your view but in some space in my heart says, yeh not logical that

1. India might reduce its FGFA to 36 nos
2. Modi give ADA its 2 billion what they are asking for AMCA R&D and development.
3. India partners with GE for F-414 EPE and US allowing help of GE for Kaveri-2.
4. India partners with Israel, Japan for its AMCA, Where Israel providing EW , Japan Optronic sensors, India Composites. and AMCA-N, AMCA AF, and AMCA- trainers are developed.

Good thinkings.. Lets assume what you wish turns out true (wish fairy granted).

Point1. After signing investment contract for 295Mn we buy just 36. off the shelf surely no TOT.. No kit based assembly.. No knowledge locally.. all data and spare dependency fully with Russia.. CAG after govt derrier for why 295 invested if only 36 was to be procured. We could have bought later from the market also type logic.
Unit cost swelling up as Economies of scale not achieved for Pakfa/FGFA
Last but most important, Russia will become a grumpy partner for future as they are not even partners in AMCA as per your wish in later points

Point 2:
2 Bn dollars or Rs 13k Crores looks good to start off.. But R&D result will definitely take time.. 10-15-20 years surely as noone will give us access and in house development takes time.

Point 3:
GE 414 EPE will not be 5th gen sureshot. Conversion will require investment. kaveri 2 is a strong possibility anyways. Whether it meets AMCA requirements of Dry thrust, Wet thrust, supercruise, TVC perhaps or evn Exhaust stealth or reduction techniques seen in 5th gen jets is a big challenge.
Knwoing business folks they would rather offer India its own downgraded 5th gen engine and drag Kaveri 2 program for decades with no fruitful results

4. This is a very strong possibility. We can sureshot do this and we will do that. A home developed platform should be customised for all forces need and trainers is a must. So yes, this is absolutely possible in every scenario.

Personally, if engine of PAKFA is good enough in I-30 form (5th gen engine being developed), we should use the same in AMCA to get commonality and use the higher thrust to streamline and design the weight carrying abilities in complete concealed bays. We can perhaps downsize its specs also a bit (tweak) and make it even more robust and perhaps longer opertaions hours (lifetime)
Involving Americans in AMCA project would be disastrous as they would lvoe to sell F35 to us over we developing our own AMCA.


But all in all good scenarios.. It tells us how much its difficult to assemble a 5th gen Jet too.. And we really want to build one from scratch..
 
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@PARIKRAMA @SR-91 @Abingdonboy @GURU DUTT @Whazzup @ramu @samlove @migflug @MilSpec

Do you really think India could go for FGFA/ PAK FA, Raffale, LCA, and AMCA.
Either way India could affort 2 planes only in QTY. and either AMCA or FGFA could be there and 1 have to be dumped.


All of these birds have different roles to play.
******LCA, Short Range Fighter, already confirmed...120 for IAF.............Min 40 for NAVY. Also will create a huge BASE, JOBS, INFRASTRUCTURE, SKILLED MAN POWER, FOUNDATION etc,etc for AMCA.
Will replace MIG-21.
ROLE............Point Defense, Interception, Ground attack near LOC.

******AMCA is the Medium Range Fighter and future of IAF. Don't expect it till end of NEXT Decade. Hence, Rafale will take over this most important role for now. Expecting over 200 in numbers
Will Replace ....Jaguars, Mirages.
Role(when ready)...Air superiority, ground attack, bombing and interception.

******* Rafale Medium Range Multi Role Fighter, best in the business, 36 confirmed and most likely another 44 to come. Total min is 80. But the final numbers will be up there. Most important and much needed fighter due to shortages.
Will Replace.......Mainly all MIGs.
ROLE................. Strategic strikes inside enemy territory, provide aerial cover to ground troops, Recon and much more.

PAK-FA/FGFA......Future Long Range, Air superiority fighter for IAF. Don't expect it till middle of next decade. Minimum 3/4 squadrons but I'm expecting it to go SU-30's way. 200 plus fighter, if economy stays on course.
Will Replace.........SU-30's

ROLE....................Deep Strike Fighter, Air to Air, Air to Surface deep strategic missions.


AS u can see AMCA and FGFA are in designing stages and will take time to come alive. LCA and Rafale can be inducted at a rapid pace to fulfill shortages of IAF.
 
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All of these birds have different roles to play.
******LCA, Short Range Fighter, already confirmed...120 for IAF.............Min 40 for NAVY. Also will create a huge BASE, JOBS, INFRASTRUCTURE, SKILLED MAN POWER, FOUNDATION etc,etc for AMCA.
Will replace MIG-21.
ROLE............Point Defense, Interception, Ground attack near LOC.

******AMCA is the Medium Range Fighter and future of IAF. Don't expect it till end of NEXT Decade. Hence, Rafale will take over this most important role for now. Expecting over 200 in numbers
Will Replace ....Jaguars, Mirages.
Role(when ready)...Air superiority, ground attack, bombing and interception.

******* Rafale Medium Range Multi Role Fighter, best in the business, 36 confirmed and most likely another 44 to come. Total min is 80. But the final numbers will be up there. Most important and much needed fighter due to shortages.
Will Replace.......Mainly all MIGs.
ROLE................. Strategic strikes inside enemy territory, provide aerial cover to ground troops, Recon and much more.

PAK-FA/FGFA......Future Long Range, Air superiority fighter for IAF. Don't expect it till middle of next decade. Minimum 3/4 squadrons but I'm expecting it to go SU-30's way. 200 plus fighter, if economy stays on course.
Will Replace.........SU-30's

ROLE....................Deep Strike Fighter, Air to Air, Air to Surface deep strategic missions.


AS u can see AMCA and FGFA are in designing stages and will take time to come alive. LCA and Rafale can be inducted at a rapid pace to fulfill shortages of IAF.

Lets check the present inventory

IAF
1. Mig 21, 27 -- Replacement needed immedeately starting from 2018 -- (Interceptor, ground attack)200 +
2. Jaguar UPG -- Give service till 2027-30 -- (Bomber, ground attack) -- 150 +
3. Mirrage 2000 UPG -- 2030 -- (Multirole, Strategic Nuclear delivery) -- 50 +
4. MIG-29 SMT/UPG -- 2027-30 -- (Multirole, Airsuperiority) -- 60 +
5. MKI(Super Sukhoi) -- 2035-40 --- (Air Superiority) -- 200 +
Future
6. Rafale --- 2045 -- (Multirole) -- 36 + **

INF
1. Sea Harrier -- 2025 (carrier/naval) -- 40 +
2. Mig 29K -- 2035-40 (carrier)
3. Jaguar Marine Strike -- 2025-2030 -- 15 +



Now What are our options in future (Hypothetical)
1. Lca
2. Rafale/ Rafale M
3. AMCA/ AMCA Naval
4. FGFA/PAK fa
5. F-35 B

MISC
1. Rustom -2
2. Aura
3. Harpy

The future Air warfare would be high intensity, cordinated with all forces, short, netcentric, EW/Stealth, Smart weapon/strandoff weapons, UAV taking active part in survellance, offensive. So the role based fighter plane would be replaced with Multirole, VLO, netcentric,

What could be the plan of induction/ replacement

2017-25

1. MIG-21/27 retire and replaced with Tejas Mk1A -- 125
2. 36 Rafale Induction
3. Focus on Development of Tejas MK-2
4. Provide fund for AMCA 2 Billion to ADA, and R&D on Kaveri-2, F-414 EPE
5. Super Sukhoi Upgradation, and make MKI number upto 300+

2025-2030

1. Induct 36 Rafale Retire Mirrage 2000
2. Retire Mig 29UPG, start replacing with Tejas MK-2 -- 100 +
3. Retire Harrier with Tejas MK-2 Naval -- 30 +
4. Start Tejas MK3 Medium category with EPE engine
5. Retire Jaguar UPG
6. Rustom - 2/3

2035-40

1. Start replacing Super Sukhoi with FGFA/PakFa -- 72 FGFA, 36 PakFa
2. Induct AMCA from 2035 -- 200 +
3. Induct Tejas MK-3 -- 200 +
4. Induct AMCA Naval for carrier
5. Induct Aura


So in year 2040, we have

1. FGFA/Pakfa -- 108
2. AMCA -- 200 +
3. Rafale -- 72 +
4. Tejas MK1a -- 125
5. Tejas MK-2 -- 100 +
6. Tejas MK-3 -- 200 +


2050 +

1. FGFA
2. AMCA
3. Tejas MK-4
4. Aura MK *



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@knight11 @PARIKRAMA

Why do you people think that India could only afford two out of four ;FGFA,AMCA,LCA,Rafael.

I mean had AMCA had been rolling out of assembly lines within next 3-4 years, we would have to worry about economic burden of operating these four aircrafts in conjugation with Mig-29's, Mirage-2000I, Jaguars, Mig-21/27, and Su30MKI.

But AMCA is not coming in this decade, and probably in next decade too. Let's be honest here; even if everything proceed in most optimistic manner, we would have AMCA in late 2020's. At that time, there would be no Mig-21/27 which would have been replaced by LCA and Rafael; and Mig-29 (Airforce version which is much older than Navy's), Jaguar, early upgraded mirage-2000I, and early inducted Su30MKI would be nearing retirement.In 2028-30 time period, we would be facing same problem as we are facing vis-a-vis replacement of Mig-21/27 today.

AMCA would logically play same role in 2028-30 that LCA is playing today ie that of replacing retiring Aircrafts, not addition of a new variety.
I am not expert but what I feel is problem would be that the proposed 189 Rafale acquisition will kill AMCA, because when the Engine development would be completed for the PAKFA, the Russian R&D speed will increase manifold and would demand India to invest money on the R&D of Pakfa/fgfa in which India is the partner, so there would be no money left for AMCA, the critical timing when India needs to pump lot of money on this project, keeping the LCA induction in mind.


Also India needs joint collaboration with some country, and Israel fits in it, not only for the investment needed for its R&D, but also the technological know how, specially in EW. Japan is another country who have its own 5th Gen fighter program, but the decision has to made by the Japanese Govt. whether they would go for the indigenous development or not. Both Israel and Japan needs 5th Gen fighter, and partners F-35, Israel to keep its technological superiority in the region, and Japan to counter China. Japan have already spend lot of money on the Awaac, Aegis, Bmew Radars, and its F-2 program and would likely to not go with 5th Gen of its own. But India needs her expertise in Composite knowledge with low RCS which she developed for F-2, which USA (lockheed Martin)also uses.
 
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@lavenge lavenge
Bro, With all due respect, i had stated that AMCA i see logically beyond 2030. Even R&D budget i say $2Bn is good to start off. My reasoning was posted earlier... The rest we discussed was based on hypothetical situations and out of box solutions..
About affordability, my reasoning is suppose we earmark say Rs 6500-13000 Cr every year for AMCA.. We know the actual results will need time. Lets say and assume a good long period of 15 years. Mind you this cost may be less considering 5th Gen tech is much more costly so international norm is around 25-30Bn R&D of course broken into parts. Since i don see the military industrial complex matured to handle such high tech as of now, i would rather advocate a mix of acquisition payment for LCAs, Super Sukhoi program, PAKFA/FGFA and Rafale tranches payment per year usage for such an amount which say gives us a mix of these birds year on year uptill 2030. No doubt MRCA retirement will come one day but Rafale is for 40 years. Implying we can easily start post 2030 when bulk purchases are more or less done by then.
Secondly, the private partnership and ecosystem development via LCA program production would have matured to a good degree with onset of PAKFA/FGFA production/coproduction which also gives us albeit if not full but limited access to 5th gen tech and may help us getting some parts procured directly like the engines instead of we continuing to find ways and means to develop our own 5th gen engine.
I see better usage of that money to do fleet acquisition in the next 15 years then AMCA investment..
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But the thing is that a lot of expenditure under R&D header is permanent. Once our Engineers develop Uttam AESA, would you fire those Engineers or would you give them job of designing fifth generation AESA radar? Mind you expenditiure on facilities and salaries is permanent (unless you close them down).You would have to pay Engineers and Scientist and maintain your testing infrastructure and facilities, irrespective of whether you develop anything or not. Thus a large part of R&D expenditure has already been accrued.

R&D and development is the continuous process and in India there is already present the great talent. But we have many deficiencies too namely the political will that is needed to achieve something. We lack Industrial base, but it is not that big problem to support defense needs, but the institution that could shows us the need, that create, leads, show the path that builds our industry and nurture hrd and educational base.

IAF wants the LCA with every features from day one, but why IAF don't have the demand for the tandem seat trainer version and love HAWK, why she trains the pilot on Su 30MKI and not on tejas trainer whose glass cockpit could be modified to Mimic the functionality of MKI, thus increases MKI's tecnical life, low cost.
Why no development of multiple rack for BVR and light Light bomb.
Why there is no need for 100, 250 lb bomb for tejas, and rely on Spice 250.
Why there is no need for indeginous IRST development.
Why delay in Super Sukhoi program when this single step will inc. the capability manifolds
Why India could develop Arjun Tank but confused on IFV.
Why India could develop 4th gen LCA but struggling with Rustam.
Why IA asking Nag to hit the target on broad day light (When Pakistan Army would be crazy to mount attack)on Rajasthan when temp is 60 degree, so all IR senson won't distinguish between hot engine of tank and sand.
Why IA wanted MCW, which could not be meet with any gun in the whole world.
Why IAF/IA looking at the face of DRDO to show what is their demands.
Why IAF leadership expect more from DRDO, which has Pilot skills, but no engineering and scientific knowledge to know the difficulty. And why DRDO looking at the face of GOI to create the educational base and skill, and money.


Also as I said, AMCA has a longer horizon than Rafael, LCA or even FGFA (if we buy less than 100). By the time AMCA would roll out, assembly lines of these aircrafts would have closed.Only lines of AMCA, F-35C (if assembled in India) and FGFA would be open.

If you look at my above plan/stucture of acquiring fighter plane I have only chosen 70 Rafale and 100 FGFA, the minimum requirement with 300 + Super Sukhoi to deter PLAAF threat, giving the time and funds for Tejas and AMCA .

AMCA would logically play same role in 2028-30 that LCA is playing today ie that of replacing retiring Aircrafts, not addition of a new variety.

AMCA is very important, if we start working now with the help of Israel/Japan collaboration, it could be 28-30, otherwise 2035+
Aura is very very important program and should not be delayed at any cost.

@lavenge lavenge
Bro, With all due respect, i had stated that AMCA i see logically beyond 2030. Even R&D budget i say $2Bn is good to start off. My reasoning was posted earlier... The rest we discussed was based on hypothetical situations and out of box solutions..
About affordability, my reasoning is suppose we earmark say Rs 6500-13000 Cr every year for AMCA.. We know the actual results will need time. Lets say and assume a good long period of 15 years. Mind you this cost may be less considering 5th Gen tech is much more costly so international norm is around 25-30Bn R&D of course broken into parts. Since i don see the military industrial complex matured to handle such high tech as of now, i would rather advocate a mix of acquisition payment for LCAs, Super Sukhoi program, PAKFA/FGFA and Rafale tranches payment per year usage for such an amount which say gives us a mix of these birds year on year uptill 2030. No doubt MRCA retirement will come one day but Rafale is for 40 years. Implying we can easily start post 2030 when bulk purchases are more or less done by then.
Secondly, the private partnership and ecosystem development via LCA program production would have matured to a good degree with onset of PAKFA/FGFA production/coproduction which also gives us albeit if not full but limited access to 5th gen tech and may help us getting some parts procured directly like the engines instead of we continuing to find ways and means to develop our own 5th gen engine.
I see better usage of that money to do fleet acquisition in the next 15 years then AMCA investment..
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Sir, I differ with your view. With PAKFA/FGFA India won't get any thing other than a product.
We have been license produce Mig-21, jaguar, MKI, hawk for decades but didn't got any significance knowledge. It was the LCA, which give us something-- We started working on MMR, and whatever we gain with this one project is what we have in Darlin and Mig 27 upgrade. There is no scarcety of lalent in country, Create an Institution other than DRDO, GOI, Security force, with members coming from all the parties, Political, Armed, R&D which could create the REQUIREMENT is what is needed. ADA have done excellent job in LCA, AMCA design is superb, ADA is confident, Money they are asking is not much, so give them their SHOT.

Also have you seen Russia don't want us to peek in Pakfa, and the indian requirement is different than the Russian. Russian want maneuverability on the cost of stealth, and IAF wants stealth on the cost of maneuverability.
 
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Lets check the present inventory

IAF
1. Mig 21, 27 -- Replacement needed immedeately starting from 2018 -- (Interceptor, ground attack)200 +
2. Jaguar UPG -- Give service till 2027-30 -- (Bomber, ground attack) -- 150 +
3. Mirrage 2000 UPG -- 2030 -- (Multirole, Strategic Nuclear delivery) -- 50 +
4. MIG-29 SMT/UPG -- 2027-30 -- (Multirole, Airsuperiority) -- 60 +
5. MKI(Super Sukhoi) -- 2035-40 --- (Air Superiority) -- 200 +
Future
6. Rafale --- 2045 -- (Multirole) -- 36 + **

INF
1. Sea Harrier -- 2025 (carrier/naval) -- 40 +
2. Mig 29K -- 2035-40 (carrier)
3. Jaguar Marine Strike -- 2025-2030 -- 15 +



Now What are our options in future (Hypothetical)
1. Lca
2. Rafale/ Rafale M
3. AMCA/ AMCA Naval
4. FGFA/PAK fa
5. F-35 B

MISC
1. Rustom -2
2. Aura
3. Harpy

The future Air warfare would be high intensity, cordinated with all forces, short, netcentric, EW/Stealth, Smart weapon/strandoff weapons, UAV taking active part in survellance, offensive. So the role based fighter plane would be replaced with Multirole, VLO, netcentric,

What could be the plan of induction/ replacement

2017-25

1. MIG-21/27 retire and replaced with Tejas Mk1A -- 125
2. 36 Rafale Induction
3. Focus on Development of Tejas MK-2
4. Provide fund for AMCA 2 Billion to ADA, and R&D on Kaveri-2, F-414 EPE
5. Super Sukhoi Upgradation, and make MKI number upto 300+

2025-2030

1. Induct 36 Rafale Retire Mirrage 2000
2. Retire Mig 29UPG, start replacing with Tejas MK-2 -- 100 +
3. Retire Harrier with Tejas MK-2 Naval -- 30 +
4. Start Tejas MK3 Medium category with EPE engine
5. Retire Jaguar UPG
6. Rustom - 2/3

2035-40

1. Start replacing Super Sukhoi with FGFA/PakFa -- 72 FGFA, 36 PakFa
2. Induct AMCA from 2035 -- 200 +
3. Induct Tejas MK-3 -- 200 +
4. Induct AMCA Naval for carrier
5. Induct Aura


So in year 2040, we have

1. FGFA/Pakfa -- 108
2. AMCA -- 200 +
3. Rafale -- 72 +
4. Tejas MK1a -- 125
5. Tejas MK-2 -- 100 +
6. Tejas MK-3 -- 200 +


2050 +

1. FGFA
2. AMCA
3. Tejas MK-4
4. Aura MK *



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excellent points you got there!
 
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