Strong navy needed to guard maritime interests: PM

[su-47]

China didnt invest in the gawadar port just to leave when india tells them to. Blockade of pakistani port and giving example of 71 is not the way to go, The reason is there wansnt any land contact between the two sides and navy was under immense pressure, to defend the coust and to bring in supplies. The blockade wasnt successfull until PNS ghazi was sunked. This is a total different scanerio and i highly doubt indian navy can put a blockade on pakistani ports and now that we have two ports, we can easily counter it. As for the chinese cargo ships, PN will give them cover as long as we can and then if indian navy attacks and destroy the any chinese civilian cargo ship, it will be a direct confrontation between the china and india and i'm sure that india wouldnt want one. China is pakistan's longterm strategic partner and future presence of chinese in gawadar will ultimately result of US withdrawl whether they like it or not. And except for BB no other leader can even think of giving preference to US on china. They all know the cost. Not even NS.

India need not sink chinese ships. they can sink the pakistani escorts, halt the ships, examine them, and if they are chinese, let them pass.

 

[Keysersoze]

India need not sink chinese ships. they can sink the pakistani escorts, halt the ships, examine them, and if they are chinese, let them pass.

Works in theory........reality is slightly different.

 

[IceCold]

India need not sink chinese ships. they can sink the pakistani escorts, halt the ships, examine them, and if they are chinese, let them pass.

I highly doubt that SU. The reason is that do you think that it is possible that IN has so much of time to actually halt the chinese ships and examine them and that too in an hostile environment. In theory maybe in reality i dont think soo. Besides even halting any chinese ships would result in tensions between china and india. Pakistani presence doesnt necessarily be needed within those ships, supplies can still come in within the chinese ships.

 

[su-47]

Duringa naval blockade, usually other countries co-operate. In 99, when IN blocked sea routes, it is not only pak ships that were prevented from passing. but even chinese ships would have been blocked. yet chinese didnt do anything. so what makes you sure china will do something if there's a blockade in the future

 

[KENT]

China didnt invest in the gawadar port just to leave when india tells them to. Blockade of pakistani port and giving example of 71 is not the way to go, The reason is there wansnt any land contact between the two sides and navy was under immense pressure, to defend the coust and to bring in supplies. The blockade wasnt successfull until PNS ghazi was sunked. This is a total different scanerio and i highly doubt indian navy can put a blockade on pakistani ports and now that we have two ports, we can easily counter it. As for the chinese cargo ships, PN will give them cover as long as we can and then if indian navy attacks and destroy the any chinese civilian cargo ship, it will be a direct confrontation between the china and india and i'm sure that india wouldnt want one. China is pakistan's longterm strategic partner and future presence of chinese in gawadar will ultimately result of US withdrawl whether they like it or not. And except for BB no other leader can even think of giving preference to US on china. They all know the cost. Not even NS.

Admitted with a great respect that china is longterm strategic partner, but how it comes that Chinese will assist PN when it comes to conflict with IN. Can you give me any specific link that show there is any Comprehensive agreement between Pak and china to cooperate with each other during eventualities.
Even during previous naval conflict of 71, there was close ties between US and Pak. During that occasion IN had sunk one of the merchant Ship of US carrying various weapons and ammunition to Pak. On that particular point of time US 7th Fleet was directed towards Bay of Bangal, but that threat was countered by soviets by sending their nucler submarines. It is highly unlikely that Chinese will try confront with IN, in that particular point of time even International community will interfere any serious action of PLAN against IN.
In my opinion, most Chinese can do is to provide PN with tons of ammunication ranging from cruise missiles, fighter planes, naval ships as well as satellite cover.

 

[IceCold]

Admitted with a great respect that china is longterm strategic partner, but how it comes that Chinese will assist PN when it comes to conflict with IN. Can you give me any specific link that show there is any Comprehensive agreement between Pak and china to cooperate with each other during eventualities.

Did you bother to read about gawadar and its importance. Why do you think that china has invested so much in the port? China will have a naval presence over there in the future. The reason is one they want to make sure that nothing happens to the chinese merchent ships and chinese oil supplies, second to keep an eye over IN as well as place a blockade of the US oil supplies if ever the need arises. PN alone isnt capable to protect the sea routes for the chinese while facing IN on the other hand, the chinese navy will make sure that a blockade of the chinese ships doesnt happen and if IN tries to do that it means a direct engagement with the chinese.

Even during previous naval conflict of 71, there was close ties between US and Pak. During that occasion IN had sunk one of the merchant Ship of US carrying various weapons and ammunition to Pak. On that particular point of time US 7th Fleet was directed towards Bay of Bangal, but that threat was countered by soviets by sending their nucler submarines. It is highly unlikely that Chinese will try confront with IN, in that particular point of time even International community will interfere any serious action of PLAN against IN.

I have mentioned before that 71 was a total different case, and at that time china was ready to get involved in the conflict which ultimately resluted india not attacking west pakistan.
Internationally community will do nothing because it was IN that put the blockade on the chinese ships and which resulted in the chinese involvement.

In my opinion, most Chinese can do is to provide PN with tons of ammunication ranging from cruise missiles, fighter planes, naval ships as well as satellite cover.

What do you mean by tons of ammunation? If there is a blockade being made and china will not interfere like you suggested, how would the above mentioning things will come to pakistan.

 

[KENT]

Did you bother to read about gawadar and its importance. Why do you think that china has invested so much in the port? China will have a naval presence over there in the future. The reason is one they want to make sure that nothing happens to the chinese merchent ships and chinese oil supplies, second to keep an eye over IN as well as place a blockade of the US oil supplies if ever the need arises. PN alone isnt capable to protect the sea routes for the chinese while facing IN on the other hand, the chinese navy will make sure that a blockade of the chinese ships doesnt happen and if IN tries to do that it means a direct engagement with the chinese.




I have mentioned before that 71 was a total different case, and at that time china was ready to get involved in the conflict which ultimately resluted india not attacking west pakistan.
Internationally community will do nothing because it was IN that put the blockade on the chinese ships and which resulted in the chinese involvement.



What do you mean by tons of ammunation? If there is a blockade being made and china will not interfere like you suggested, how would the above mentioning things will come to pakistan.

Hey guys, just tell me why on earth IN would need to impose blocklade or attack on chinese merchant ship as well to threat the interest of Chinese Oil supplies in the region. As one of the member previously suggested as in any kind future naval conflict, prior notice will be given to all the countries in the region about not to operate in conflict zone. Then tell me how chinese vessel will going to operate in conflict zone. As far as the chinese naval presense in Gwadar is concerned, it will not be all new post where they going to ancher there warship, as they have all ready make there presense felt in on Coco Island hired from the Burma to keep a close eye on indian naval activity in the Bay of Bangel.

It would be of a great help if you provide me the link where Chinese desire to get involved in a war which made Indian not to attack west Pakistan.

As for the supply of ammunition, there is various surface route in Himalayn region whereby weapon convey can find its way.

 

[bhangra12345]

As for the supply of ammunition, there is various surface route in Himalayn region whereby weapon convey can find its way.

There is the karakoram highway, but during the winters it is completely blocked, so only possible help will be through air.

It was not for nothing that 1962 war took place in september/october. and 1971 war took place in december. The situation was the same from 1971 april to december for India, but the attack only took place in december, the timing was chosen by only the weather, december by winter and the starting date was the full moon day when pakistani aircraft attacked indian bases.

Also realize the timing of kargil, just after the passes cleared. To be specific, from october/november to april, the karakoram highway is shut. Airlift can only go something like 5% of where the sea or land route goes.

Internationally community will do nothing because it was IN that put the blockade on the chinese ships and which resulted in the chinese involvement.

The blockade was not on chinese ships, it was on any ship trying to go or come from Pakistan, if it is the chinese then it is the chinese who started the fighting, their involvement has already started.

Now I will give you a simple case, say (just 3 countries, no particular consequence) usa attacked iran and is doing a blockade. Now say french starts supplying the contraband (ammunition, weapons, so on) to iran, would you or would you not attack the usa ships? and treat their actions as an act of war.

Now replace in the above sentence, french=china, usa=india, iran =pakistan.

There is nothing called international community except in the minds of idealists.

Did you bother to read about gawadar and its importance. Why do you think that china has invested so much in the port? China will have a naval presence over there in the future. The reason is one they want to make sure that nothing happens to the chinese merchent ships and chinese oil supplies, second to keep an eye over IN as well as place a blockade of the US oil supplies if ever the need arises. PN alone isnt capable to protect the sea routes for the chinese while facing IN on the other hand, the chinese navy will make sure that a blockade of the chinese ships doesnt happen and if IN tries to do that it means a direct engagement with the chinese.

Yes, I have read about gwadar and its possible significance, what you fail to realize is it is only possible significance. As long as US is in Pakistan, china will not make gwadar any sort of worthwhile thing for china, simply because usa will be able to easily to swoop into the port, which might give their secrets away. So except for Pakistan navy to use, gwadar is just another port for Pakistan.

Now you have at the max four-five ports - karachi, gwadar and some other minor ports. Do you think it is too difficult to blockade them and the distance between them is not more than 100 km? You forget that we blockaded both east and west pakistan in 1971 at the same time and they was 1000s of km between them. Yes, leakages will happen, that is 100% blockade is not possible. But the moment we announce blockade, all the civilian port traffic vanishes in air, because of the threat. and then it is only the military traffic - where as for us, it will be civilian business as usual except possibly in mumbai/gujarat ports.

Then all we have to check is the pakistani navies, whose surface ships are not even worth the mention for Indian navy. Only the submarines will create some problems. I think actually Indian navy has concentrated on being ASW one for this reason only. Hell both your karachi and gwadar ports are within su-30 range from inside our land. Air cover can be provided to our ships from our ac and from land.

Yes, gwadar is an good alternative, but do not make it seem as the end of all the worries from India, it is not.

 

[IceCold]

I dont wana argue with you over it bhangra, we are going again ang again over the same thing because we have a completely different way of seeing things while indians like to worth mention 71 and 71 for us was a completely different story defending a land with no land contact, an internal rebillion and moreover an hostile country that seprates the two parts doesnt seem to be an easy task. Our resources was divided, morale of the army was down, and most political failure that happens to be the armychief then, so it was a walk in the park for the indians. Anyhow coming back, time since then has changed but to argue over it is of no use since none of us will get on a consclution. Bottom line is only time will tell if war happens who will win it. As for the americans you are seriously mistaken about their presence, only await is for the chinese navy to have a strong presence then a permanent goodbye to US provided BB has nothing to do with the government. And since you mentioned SU, i guess PAF wouldnt be sitting ducks either where a whole squardon of PAF will not only be protecting the naval assests but equipped with the lastest antiship missle and RA'AD will be a serious problem for the IN.

 

[bhangra12345]

I never said that "massacring" Pakistan's armed forces would be a cakewalk.

Read the last sentence, which I wrote which is the essence of that particular para.

Yes, gwadar is an good alternative, but do not make it seem as the end of all the worries from India, it is not.

As for the americans you are seriously mistaken about their presence, only await is for the chinese navy to have a strong presence then a permanent goodbye to US provided BB has nothing to do with the government.

Not in the next twenty years is Plan going to seriously challenge Indian navy in the Indian ocean. Realize that in navy, everything has a huge lead time, what you start building today will go into production two years later, excluding time for design, construction will take five years, induction takes one years, experience will take one-two years.
basically any ship on the drawing board will take a minimum of 10 years to be effective. Today plan and india cannot attack eachother past the mallacca straits. I dont see them start building even one AC in the next three years, in which they have zero experience. Frankly they cannot be a force in indian ocean and arabian sea for the next twenty years.
I personally do not expect US to leave Pakistan/afghanistan within the next 5 years. and with the baluchistan and nwfp problems around, the infrastructure development in those areas will also be slow. Gwadar is a good location for port, but as of today, only PN can use it. The nearest economic centres are too far off and better served by karachi ports expansion.

Basically you are assuming 20 years of the same to happen. Sorry I do not have that much forecast. I give up on this.

 

[KENT]

I dont wana argue with you over it bhangra, we are going again ang again over the same thing because we have a completely different way of seeing things while indians like to worth mention 71 and 71 for us was a completely different story defending a land with no land contact, an internal rebillion and moreover an hostile country that seprates the two parts doesnt seem to be an easy task. Our resources was divided, morale of the army was down, and most political failure that happens to be the armychief then, so it was a walk in the park for the indians. Anyhow coming back, time since then has changed but to argue over it is of no use since none of us will get on a consclution. Bottom line is only time will tell if war happens who will win it. As for the americans you are seriously mistaken about their presence, only await is for the chinese navy to have a strong presence then a permanent goodbye to US provided BB has nothing to do with the government. And since you mentioned SU, i guess PAF wouldnt be sitting ducks either where a whole squardon of PAF will not only be protecting the naval assests but equipped with the lastest antiship missle and RA'AD will be a serious problem for the IN.

As for the displacement of US from Indian ocean with arrival Chinese warship is very unrealistic scenario. Since US has made it permanent base at middle east and Afganistan. One of the key Stregegic objective of US was to contain Chinese by inforcing their control over Gulf Oil Reserves.
Chinese will not only have maintain close eye on IN but also on the US Naval activity as well when they make their presense felt in Gwadar.

In my opinion, regarding the Air Warfare over Arabian ocean, you have mentioned you will make extensive use of cruise missles. But right now PN don’t have any long range Antiship Weapon in their arsenal. As for the RAAD cruise missiles, let it to get matured enough to rich antiship weapon level.

You said very rightly PAF will not sitting duck, but right now in PAF as well there is nothing anything that can challenge MKI and upgraded Sea-Harrier.

 

[IceCold]

As for the displacement of US from Indian ocean with arrival Chinese warship is very unrealistic scenario. Since US has made it permanent base at middle east and Afganistan. One of the key Stregegic objective of US was to contain Chinese by inforcing their control over Gulf Oil Reserves.
Chinese will not only have maintain close eye on IN but also on the US Naval activity as well when they make their presense felt in Gwadar.

Like i said time will tell, i was talking about the US presence in pakistan. That was the reason i mentioned earlier provided BB is not in the government. China will utimately show her presence in gawadar, that is the only reason gawadar is being developed so extensively.

In my opinion, regarding the Air Warfare over Arabian ocean, you have mentioned you will make extensive use of cruise missles. But right now PN don’t have any long range Antiship Weapon in their arsenal. As for the RAAD cruise missiles, let it to get matured enough to rich antiship weapon level.

PN has antiship missles like the harpoon and C-802 which are considered the best in their class and so fitted in P3C orion and in future with the JF's would for sure cause problems for IN. As for RA'AD being developed, i bet it would already have been, open testing is what is required. Remember most of pakistan defense programes remain under cover and top secretcy untill the government officialy annouces them.

You said very rightly PAF will not sitting duck, but right now in PAF as well there is nothing anything that can challenge MKI and upgraded Sea-Harrier.

You are wrong here. Even for the MKI opperating in an hostile enviroment against SAM's and PAF is not an easy task. You see MKI can be challenge by even JF's in defensive role, under the cover of AWACS, JF's equipped with BVR missle can shoot out the MKI before the MKI's get aware of the JF's presence. The reason is MKI being a bigger plane has much more RC then the JF's besides while the radar of JF's would be shutted off, the MKI will be using their radar to search for the hostile aircraft which will make their detection much easy for the defending aircraft under the umbrella of an AWACS.