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Strong navy needed to guard maritime interests: PM

Having the Chinese Naval post at Gwadar will not going to make any big difference.

I think it would make a difference, China's Naval presence at Gwadar is needed if China is to protect her cargo and sea lanes. I think PLAN and PN would cooperate to ensure stability and protect their respective interests.

You should keep in mind it will also attract US to have keep check on chinese Naval Activity.

This is true, the US has always kept her eye on China and her military activities, this is unavoidable. The US sees China as her rival and they would not like China expanding her military influence.

What kind of air defence will PN going to execute to defend Gwadar Port? I mean in previous conflict we had attacked Karachi Port using missiles.

I am not sure about the air defence capabilities of Pakistan, maybe a Pakistani member could answer that for you.

But I would presume that the Pakistani defence would have greatly improved and enhanced since the last Pak-India conflict. The defence at Gwadar is very important for Pakistan, so I would think they would greatly enhance the defences of the port.

I don't think India would be able to use missiles on Pakistan ports like before.

The reason I think this is because the current Pak-India relations has been cordial and neither sides would risk a conflict since both nations desires growth and stability is important.

Another reason is with the Gwadar port, India would not be able to easilly blockade and/or attack Pakistani ports. This is because the Gwadar port would act as a second naval base after the Karachi port. Gwadar and Karachi ports would look out for each other. The chances of attack from India would even more diminish with the presence of China's Navy docked at Gwadar.

The last paragraph is a hypothetical scenario of an Indian attack on the ports.
 
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The chances of attack from India would even more diminish with the presence of China's Navy docked at Gwadar.

The last paragraph is a hypothetical scenario of an Indian attack on the ports.


The fact is that chinese ships have to travel all the way from china to gwadar, circumnavigating the indian subcontinent. this will take many days. if India launches a surprise attack, the port can fall, and the sea routes can be blockaded long enough to force the war to an end.

also, india can postpone chinese military intervention by immediately starting conferences with the chinese top brass, and demanding conditions and stretching out the talks. the chinese wont want to start a war right away with india, and will take time thinking over the situation before sending the ships. this will buy india valuable time.
 
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SU-I have mentioned few systems that can intercept a Brahmos. There is no Backfire deal. the PN will be getting OHP's which will be upgraded with a number of Anti-air systems (seaRAM and essm for example) which are more than capable of taking out a brahmos. The top cover can be provided by the Hawkeye's and whatever new aircraft the PN acquires to replace the Mirages. The ground based defence can be enhanced with Radar guided guns and a SPADA or BAMSE unit which would provide defence against leakers

Of course no missile is invincible. But also, no defence system is unbeatable. Even the US admirals feel threatened by the Russian SS-N-19 Shipwrecks and SS-N-22 Sunburns, as the aegis missile defence system on US ships can be overcome by a salvo of these supersonis AShMs. Brahmos is more advanced than sunburn. so a salvo of brahmos can definitely take out any ship.
 
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Of course no missile is invincible. But also, no defence system is unbeatable. Even the US admirals feel threatened by the Russian SS-N-19 Shipwrecks and SS-N-22 Sunburns, as the aegis missile defence system on US ships can be overcome by a salvo of these supersonis AShMs. Brahmos is more advanced than sunburn. so a salvo of brahmos can definitely take out any ship.

It's true what you say about no system/defence being invincible however the ASHM threat that the U.S. was concerned about was specifically in the Persian gulf. Where the the narrow bottle neck would be a perfect ambush point. The Brahmos and Sunburn can surely take out a ship. however it is not the last word as many have suggested.The problem lies in the targeting at distance. The Brahmos uses inertial guidance to get where it needs and has to fly at height to get the maximum range. So it can be intercepted before it gets anywhere near it's target. The detection at long range has been made easier by the hawkeye and the BVR missile would make interception at range easier.
 
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It's true what you say about no system/defence being invincible however the ASHM threat that the U.S. was concerned about was specifically in the Persian gulf. Where the the narrow bottle neck would be a perfect ambush point. The Brahmos and Sunburn can surely take out a ship. however it is not the last word as many have suggested.The problem lies in the targeting at distance. The Brahmos uses inertial guidance to get where it needs and has to fly at height to get the maximum range. So it can be intercepted before it gets anywhere near it's target. The detection at long range has been made easier by the hawkeye and the BVR missile would make interception at range easier.

This is assuming that there are no fighters accompanying the aircraft carrying brahmos. but IN's carrier borne aircraft will be flying fleet defence, making i much harder for Pak aircraft to take out indian missile carrying aircraft.
 
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Actually it would make a big difference.if the Chinese ships are used to escort trade ships in and out of PAK then what will the IN do? attack the Chinese navy? It would require the IN to initiate hostilities against China. The U.S. will not get involved with that. So then one of two things would happen. The trade route would remain open. or china would be involved in the war.

You forget that when India and Pakistan are in a state of war AND India is enforcing a blockade of Pakistan, it will declare to the whole world that India is enforcing a blockade and rest of the countries better leave or will be treated as abetting Pakistan. Some time will be provided so that they can leave. Read the 1971 documents where India gave 2-3 days for the other countries so that they can leave bangladesh(east Pak) at that time.

So basically, if china does the escorting and such stuff, it will automatically become an act of aggression by china on India and then atleast my bets are off on India's reaction.

China would be involved in war the moment it starts escorting, it doesnt start when India retaliates.

This is how wars are fought. When you are going to attack, say air raid, you issue a "notam" to the general public that no civilian aircraft will fly at those location at that point of time. Read this
The Dhamaka Incident - Wg Cdr Vijayan [www.bharat-rakshak.com]

Excerpts from the above link in case you are allergic to BR

the pilot was asked by controller to defend against a pakistani aircrafts, when he was in air

As I levelled off at an altitude of ten thousand metres, the interceptor controller came over the radio. "Alter course to one six zero degrees (1600), target heading for Pop Corn". So that was it then. Will he be descending below clouds to do the damage or will he let go from above, I wondered. If the former was the objective I had very little chance to encounter him. And if it was the latter, which I thought was more likely, the bombs would fall astray resulting in many civilian casualties in the dense population of 'Pop Corn'. And there, among those sleeping innocent lot, were a few who were very dear to me - my wife and two children!
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Target now altered course to two nine zero degrees (2900), alter your course to two four zero degrees (24CP), range twenty four kilometres". I made a violent turn onto my new course. They are still there as true as life. I can't let them get away. I glanced at. the air speed indicator, 1000 kms/hr. I switched on the radar to locate-the target and turned the cabin temperature to "Warm".

It must have been a minute, a miserably long minute, when there appeared a small green blip on my radar screen, twenty Vms ahead of me sure enough and at the same height. I have got the Johnny, I thought. Instinctively, I pushed the throttle upto the re-heat position. There was a kick from the back and the MiG-21 leaped forward. The plane turned supersonic and was flying at one and a half times the speed of'sound. The target blip on the radar screen was clearer now; range closing in, fifteen, fourteen, twelve, ten. I flicked on the missile lock-on switch and turned on the audio signal indicator. A few seconds and there was the "beep", "beep" note over the radio. My missile had locked onto the target alright. Range six kilometres - I was closing in like a 'ding-bat'. All I needed to do now was to gently squeeze the trigger.

Target in contact, weapon locked on, request clearance to launch". I was being good mannerly - the routine pilot-to-controller conversation, the training background, I suppose! Really unnecessary under actual operational conditions. No answer!

I repeated the same words a second time, then again a third time. Still no answer, I flicked off the trigger guard and checked the firing conditions. A little too close may be, but ideally placed in all other respects.

'Hold fire, Mission One Zero One., hold fire- The Controller's voice was so loud and sudden I almost pressed the trigger. "No damage done at Pop Corn. Target doubtful, request identify target if possible". The Controller rattled on - all in one breath.

Good Heavens! Identify at this time of the night and when I have only a radar contact! What if those boys made an evasive turn now. After all, they were monitoring our conversation on the same frequency. I had heard them a while ago! Am I going to miss him after all?

It was a painful deliberation on my part to take my eyes off the radar screen and look out. When I did, I was once again looking at what now seemed a mocking face of the same full moon. And right in the middle of that large pale, yellow mass was a red light blinking, on-off, on-off. I knew then he was no enemy. Suddenly, before I could even focus my eyes, a large silhouette of an aircraft loomed before me. I had by now switched off the re-heat, put the throttle right back to minimum power and extended the speed brakes. But in spite of it all, my overtaking speed was too high. A violent yank on the control stick and I overshot him on his right hardly a few feet away.

A Boeing 707! The anti-collision lights were all blinking, the cabin lights filtered through the oval shaped windows. Against the moonlight, the large letters of the Airline written on the fuselage were clearly legible.
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The flight call sign "Sugar Foxtrot, with 108 passengers on board had taken off from Bangkok, destination Teheran. Evidently the Commander of the flight was not aware of the war that had broken out between Pakistan and India few hours ago. Nor was he informed of the NOTAM, number G.057, issued by the civil aviation authority, prohibiting flights over Indian territory by foreign aircraft. He must have found it rather strange that there were so few landmarks visible over the country and to make it worse for him all the navigational radio aids at various check points en route over India were off. No wonder then that he was 110 kilometres outside flight corridor groping about his way in darkness. I could understand his predidament. However, I was not too convinced by his explanation.
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It is similar for the navies.
 
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You forget that when India and Pakistan are in a state of war AND India is enforcing a blockade of Pakistan, it will declare to the whole world that India is enforcing a blockade and rest of the countries better leave or will be treated as abetting Pakistan. Some time will be provided so that they can leave. Read the 1971 documents where India gave 2-3 days for the other countries so that they can leave bangladesh(east Pak) at that time.

So basically, if china does the escorting and such stuff, it will automatically become an act of aggression by china on India and then atleast my bets are off on India's reaction.

China would be involved in war the moment it starts escorting, it doesnt start when India retaliates.

This is how wars are fought. When you are going to attack, say air raid, you issue a "notam" to the general public that no civilian aircraft will fly at those location at that point of time. Read this
The Dhamaka Incident - Wg Cdr Vijayan [www.bharat-rakshak.com]

It is similar for the navies.
Well there you go.......
China can give a counter statement saying any aggression will be an act of war. Also It would put a spanner into the whole cold start, as the Indian govt would have to let people know about the blockade.
And the question is.....how badly would India want a two front war? against two major enemies?
 
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Well there you go.......
China can give a counter statement saying any aggression will be an act of war. Also It would put a spanner into the whole cold start, as the Indian govt would have to let people know about the blockade.
And the question is.....how badly would India want a two front war? against two major enemies?

China didn't come to Pakistani aid in '71, why would they come now?

China is looking to improve trade and relations with India and the world, and will try her best to avoid outright war with any nation.

Pakistan will be alone on this one, I'm afraid!!
 
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China didn't come to Pakistani aid in '71, why would they come now?

China is looking to improve trade and relations with India and the world, and will try her best to avoid outright war with any nation.

Pakistan will be alone on this one, I'm afraid!!

No the world is a different place now......in 71 there was a lot of internal turmoil in the Chinese communist party and they were still relatively isolationist on the larger scale. However now they are expanding and trying to increase their circle of influence. Their larger navy is an example.
Of course any nation will try to avoid war, however they will not allow their influence be affected by someone else (The cold war is replete with such examples)
The Russians are reasserting themselves by very aggressive posturing and being very protectionist about areas on their borders.
Posturing may be all it requires like I said India may think it can take Pakistan but China AND PAk would make them take pause.
 
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Well there you go.......
China can give a counter statement saying any aggression will be an act of war. Also It would put a spanner into the whole cold start, as the Indian govt would have to let people know about the blockade.
Notam is issued in a general way, something on these lines,
Understanding NOTAMs, Part 1
Military exercises or manoeuvres and airspace reservations
The military often uses certain pieces of airspace that are charted. On the charts, the designated areas are often noted as "Mon-Fri, O/T by NOTAM". If this is one of those other times, then a NOTAM will be issued regarding the area.

During a war, you say that ALL civilian flights are prohibited from henceforth on these areas covered by the so-and-so communication towers coming under so-and-so ATCs.
You can issue an open ended notam, i.e. from now on, no air crafts through those latitudes. After 9/11 all our parliaments and sensitive installations have such notams. It does give your intent but doesnt give your timing away.
Anyway while attacking do you want some other countries civilians caught in the crossfire? No, you provide them advance warning/escape route.

Read during the last agni-3 testfiring, an indonesian flight was returned because it did not follow the notam issued.

And the question is.....how badly would India want a two front war? against two major enemies?
Can I flip the question and ask, how badly does china want to attack India? because the escorting clearly states that you are attacking India. India will treat it as an aggression no doubt, reaction from India, I dont know- But,China will have to treat it's action as an aggression against India and expect an automatic reaction from India because in effect china is trying to break the blockade imposed by India- which is an act of war.
 
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No the world is a different place now......in 71 there was a lot of internal turmoil in the Chinese communist party and they were still relatively isolationist on the larger scale. However now they are expanding and trying to increase their circle of influence. Their larger navy is an example.
Of course any nation will try to avoid war, however they will not allow their influence be affected by someone else (The cold war is replete with such examples)
The Russians are reasserting themselves by very aggressive posturing and being very protectionist about areas on their borders.
Posturing may be all it requires like I said India may think it can take Pakistan but China AND PAk would make them take pause.
Applying blockade means we are already in a state of war against Pakistan. Remember in 1999, we just were ready to block but actually didnt do so, because no war was officially declared between India and Pakistan.

This blockade comes after the declaration of war. So India was initially involved in only a fight between India and Pakistan. If china is trying to escort, in effect it is intentionally picking up a fight with India.

Actually logistically speaking, china doesnt have enough logistics to do that type of thing, not in the next 10 years, will it able to do that.
 
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The fact is that chinese ships have to travel all the way from china to gwadar, circumnavigating the indian subcontinent. this will take many days. if India launches a surprise attack, the port can fall, and the sea routes can be blockaded long enough to force the war to an end.

This could be true, but Chinese ships could travel to Gwadar during peacetime and stay there in the long term. China would have a fleet in Gwadar protecting sea lanes during peacetime and go on alert during war time. This would cancel out the time to reach Gwadar when a Pak-India conflict arises.

also, india can postpone chinese military intervention by immediately starting conferences with the chinese top brass, and demanding conditions and stretching out the talks. the chinese wont want to start a war right away with india, and will take time thinking over the situation before sending the ships. this will buy india valuable time.

China, Pakistan and India are in no postition for war, since all three nations desires peace and stability inorder to grow and prosper. Also, war would bring many consequences such as worldwide condemnation and the crippling of their respective economies. This is clearly a stake that no nations are willing to risk.

China's naval fleet in Gwadar would be long term in cooperation with the PN to protect sea lanes and a deterrent for India should a new Pak-India tension arises.
 
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This could be true, but Chinese ships could travel to Gwadar during peacetime and stay there in the long term. China would have a fleet in Gwadar protecting sea lanes during peacetime and go on alert during war time. This would cancel out the time to reach Gwadar when a Pak-India conflict arises.
Let me put it this way, the cost of a screw driver for US army in US is say 1$. For the same to reach iraq, it costs 50$. Now do the same calculations for your peacetime sojourns. How much it will cost? It is not for idleness, it is said "Amatuers study tactics, professionals study logistics".

Notice how whenever a countries measly two small ships go on exercises, a big transport ship follows them. Basically unless Pakistan allows a PERMANENT base for china, i.e. Pakistan has accepted to be a long-term client state for china, it will not happen, then the costs reduce to 25$. I do not see this happening as long as US is in Pakistan and I dont see them leaving anytime soon.

China, Pakistan and India are in no postition for war, since all three nations desires peace and stability inorder to grow and prosper. Also, war would bring many consequences such as worldwide condemnation and the crippling of their respective economies. This is clearly a stake that no nations are willing to risk.
completely accept that.
China's naval fleet in Gwadar would be long term in cooperation with the PN to protect sea lanes and a deterrent for India should a new Pak-India tension arises.
You are saying that it is a DETERRENT for India, i.e. you are taking steps against India and then saying we offer only friendship, nice forked tongue, you have.
 
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You are saying that it is a DETERRENT for India, i.e. you are taking steps against India and then saying we offer only friendship, nice forked tongue, you have.

I think you have mistaken my post.

If you read my previous posts I was applying this as a hypothetical scenario should there be a Pak-India conflict.

Ofcourse if there is no such conflict my comment would be irrelevant.

Overall, there should be peace between China, Pakistan and India.

The trilateral relations currently is cordial therefore the chances of conflict is minimal.

I stress once again that this is applied on the hypotheical scenario.
 
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China didnt invest in the gawadar port just to leave when india tells them to. Blockade of pakistani port and giving example of 71 is not the way to go, The reason is there wansnt any land contact between the two sides and navy was under immense pressure, to defend the coust and to bring in supplies. The blockade wasnt successfull until PNS ghazi was sunked. This is a total different scanerio and i highly doubt indian navy can put a blockade on pakistani ports and now that we have two ports, we can easily counter it. As for the chinese cargo ships, PN will give them cover as long as we can and then if indian navy attacks and destroy the any chinese civilian cargo ship, it will be a direct confrontation between the china and india and i'm sure that india wouldnt want one. China is pakistan's longterm strategic partner and future presence of chinese in gawadar will ultimately result of US withdrawl whether they like it or not. And except for BB no other leader can even think of giving preference to US on china. They all know the cost. Not even NS.
 
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