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Strategic patience VS Strategic jump

continue of previous post
3- exiting nuclear deal and hot summer 1397
The third shifting point, American make threat against Iran about economic damages, and in spring of 1397 they operate their threats by exiting nuclear deal.
In my opinion, for understanding new wave of sanctions we must compare that with previous sanctions which happened during Obama time. The main difference is those who decide and implement sanctions and their backgrounds and their purposes. The sanctions are almost same by the way their implementation are different and that come from background of those responsible for this job.
2435532.jpg

https://www.brookings.edu/experts/richard-nephew/
During this period, Nephew also served as the lead sanctions expert for the U.S. team negotiating with Iran from August 2013 to December 2014.

From 2011 to 2013, Nephew was a director for Iran at the National Security Council (NSC), where he was responsible for the development and execution of the U.S. sanctions strategy toward Iran, as well as for the nuclear negotiations. While at the NSC, Nephew supervised a dramatic expansion of U.S. and foreign sanctions against Iran, including through the development and implementation of six new executive orders signed by President Obama during Nephew’s tenure.

From 2006 to 2011, Nephew served in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation at the Department of State, first as the senior Iran nuclear officer and, as of 2008, as the Middle East team chief. In this capacity, Nephew was developed both the U.S. approach to negotiations with Iran as well as the U.S. sanctions strategy at the U.N. Security Council. He was part of the teams that developed and negotiated U.N. Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR) 1737, 1747, 1803, and 1929.


A09957CF-435B-433D-AAB1-048D5989B84D_w408_r1_s.jpg

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/mandelker-iran-sanctions/594412/
She takes it personally as a child of Holocaust survivors, and has spoken publicly about the 1940s-era Treasury Department’s role in freezing Nazi assets around the same time her parents were hiding in Eastern Europe. “They were hiding underground, in forests, in ditches and under haystacks,” she said in a speech at the Holocaust Museum in April. “I grew up hearing their stories, including about moments of great courage, some of which resulted in survival and others that ended in death.”

with analyzing these two people we can understand sanctions and how they act and react which help us to create more precise scenarios for future which is not our purpose in this topic.
differences:
1- we have man and woman and as we know man and woman see the world differently and make decisions differently, mans most of the time sees issues more deeply and play longer game while woman sees issues more widely and play shorter game, each of these choices have their own advantages and disadvantages and are not better than other one.
2- for the guy Iran sanctions was part of his job and he was chosen b/c he was guy who know how to do his job well; in other hand the lady economic sanctions against Iran is personal war, she came from Jewish family and have strong ties with Zionists in Israel and other parts of the world.
.....

From there come differences in decision making center of sanctions against Iran and way that they implement sanctions against Iran.

In spring of 1397, USA exit Iran nuclear deal and operate it's threats against Iran in sanctions cases and at that time unrest in Iran haven't finished completely yet. At that time John Bolton promise hot summer and surprise for Iran. Also around that time Iran base in T4 was hit, That mean three cards were active at spring and summer of 1397. 1- economic card 2- internal unrest 3- kinetic war against Iranian military personnel
That huge hybrid pressure create atmosphere in USA administration that Iran would collapse soon
I remember people in Iran were preparing for famine in Iran by buying necessary foods and medicines :(

Unlike Obama Trump decided to play fast and shorter game and put huge pressure on Iran in shorter time to bring Iran to its knees in summer of 1397(2018) but as we know the pressure meet its end in spring 1398(2019) by completely bringing Iran oil sanction waivers to zero and put sanctions on all petrochemical and metal Iran exports. After that day America burned another important card which was threat of more sanctions. b/c there weren't more sanctions to impose on Iran after that time, While Iran from spring of 1397 till spring of 1398 managed to survive under USA harsh economic war and adopt itself to new situation.
till spring of 1398, USA lost two of its cards which were threat of more sanctions and internal unrest, so that was time to play its other cards more precisely and wisely.


4- Iran reactions under nuclear deal, and war threat b/w Iran and USA
In the anniversary of USA exit from Iran nuclear deal Iran announced 60 days mechanism to react against USA pressure on other parties to not do their obligations under deal.
That was big blow on the USA department and hawks b/c remaining Iran nuclear deal members did not recognize Iran announcement as important violation against deal. So USA tried to play one of its left cards more carefully and that was Iran and USA direct war in Persian gulf, at this time we saw tankers were burning and Japan prime minister and other European diplomats in Iran. I remember at that time German foreign minister( Heiko Maas) in Tehran next to Zarif said I here to help Iran from USA upcoming war, and Iran should be good boy and accept our requests. exactly 10 days later Iran shot down USA drone in Persian gulf and USA inability to respond clearly burned another big and important card which was direct war b/w Iran and USA which always as I said foreign ministers and presidents used when they had meeting with Iranian counterparts. After that day we are not hearing from them more about we are here to help Iran from upcoming USA attack!!!!

5- there is more cards left on USA hands and USA can recycle its lost cards by time, however Iran has not lost its cards yet and it can use them.
 
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Strategic Patience only pertains value when you have clearly proven your capability (Technical, industrial, financial,...) on top of a clear will to conduct a strategic Jump in a relatively short timespan if ever pushed.
Now when it comes to the Missile program since it's under IRGC command and largely out of the purview of a politized elected government then I'd say most of the pieces are in place to hold value however for it to remain and continue to do so the IRGC has to repeatedly prove it's capabilities to the relevant global leaders by showcasing a small portion of it's capabilities and advancement in quality, quantity & capability within the strategic range they have so far strategically restricted themselves too.
And Iran's SLV program is a clear indication as to what happens once an elected government with an unrealistic utopian view of the world get's a hold of such programs.

Also, strategic patience needs clear red lines and limitations that if crossed will result in a swift response. Simply put what good is patience once your being choked to death for at that point the only thing you'd be waiting for is your own death! And as it pertains to the JCPOA the U.S. has already crossed the redlines that was Iran's Oil exports and failure to properly respond on that issue by the elected government was clearly misconstrued as weakness which then allowed them to start testing Iran on shipping which took the IRGC to stand against.
 
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continue of previous post
3- exiting nuclear deal and hot summer 1397
The third shifting point, American make threat against Iran about economic damages, and in spring of 1397 they operate their threats by exiting nuclear deal.
In my opinion, for understanding new wave of sanctions we must compare that with previous sanctions which happened during Obama time. The main difference is those who decide and implement sanctions and their backgrounds and their purposes. The sanctions are almost same by the way their implementation are different and that come from background of those responsible for this job.
2435532.jpg

https://www.brookings.edu/experts/richard-nephew/



A09957CF-435B-433D-AAB1-048D5989B84D_w408_r1_s.jpg

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/mandelker-iran-sanctions/594412/


with analyzing these two people we can understand sanctions and how they act and react which help us to create more precise scenarios for future which is not our purpose in this topic.
differences:
1- we have man and woman and as we know man and woman see the world differently and make decisions differently, mans most of the time sees issues more deeply and play longer game while woman sees issues more widely and play shorter game, each of these choices have their own advantages and disadvantages and are not better than other one.
2- for the guy Iran sanctions was part of his job and he was chosen b/c he was guy who know how to do his job well; in other hand the lady economic sanctions against Iran is personal war, she came from Jewish family and have strong ties with Zionists in Israel and other parts of the world.
.....

From there come differences in decision making center of sanctions against Iran and way that they implement sanctions against Iran.

In spring of 1397, USA exit Iran nuclear deal and operate it's threats against Iran in sanctions cases and at that time unrest in Iran haven't finished completely yet. At that time John Bolton promise hot summer and surprise for Iran. Also around that time Iran base in T4 was hit, That mean three cards were active at spring and summer of 1397. 1- economic card 2- internal unrest 3- kinetic war against Iranian military personnel
That huge hybrid pressure create atmosphere in USA administration that Iran would collapse soon
I remember people in Iran were preparing for famine in Iran by buying necessary foods and medicines :(

Unlike Obama Trump decided to play fast and shorter game and put huge pressure on Iran in shorter time to bring Iran to its knees in summer of 1397(2018) but as we know the pressure meet its end in spring 1398(2019) by completely bringing Iran oil sanction waivers to zero and put sanctions on all petrochemical and metal Iran exports. After that day America burned another important card which was threat of more sanctions. b/c there weren't more sanctions to impose on Iran after that time, While Iran from spring of 1397 till spring of 1398 managed to survive under USA harsh economic war and adopt itself to new situation.
till spring of 1398, USA lost two of its cards which were threat of more sanctions and internal unrest, so that was time to play its other cards more precisely and wisely.


4- Iran reactions under nuclear deal, and war threat b/w Iran and USA
In the anniversary of USA exit from Iran nuclear deal Iran announced 60 days mechanism to react against USA pressure on other parties to not do their obligations under deal.
That was big blow on the USA department and hawks b/c remaining Iran nuclear deal members did not recognize Iran announcement as important violation against deal. So USA tried to play one of its left cards more carefully and that was Iran and USA direct war in Persian gulf, at this time we saw tankers were burning and Japan prime minister and other European diplomats in Iran. I remember at that time German foreign minister( Heiko Maas) in Tehran next to Zarif said I here to help Iran from USA upcoming war, and Iran should be good boy and accept our requests. exactly 10 days later Iran shot down USA drone in Persian gulf and USA inability to respond clearly burned another big and important card which was direct war b/w Iran and USA which always as I said foreign ministers and presidents used when they had meeting with Iranian counterparts. After that day we are not hearing from them more about we are here to help Iran from upcoming USA attack!!!!

5- there is more cards left on USA hands and USA can recycle its lost cards by time, however Iran has not lost its cards yet and it can use them.
I said guys, this time American sanction decisions are emotional (personal war)
This usually happen when you put Ideolog people on decision making level not educated one

Also Mr nephew has good book about Art of sanctions which give good sight from inside Obama administration about sanctions.
download it in below link dudes
https://media.farsnews.com/Uploaded/Files/Documents/1397/03/01/13970301000543_Test.pdf
 
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How we could not see the jumps ????

All of Interview is important.(minute 14 second 30 more important)
He promised next year same time to discuss events that are coming.

lol
Published on Jun 9, 2019
note: time is before MQ-4 incident
 
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new fantasy word "Strategic loneliness"

But I think Iran is not lonely more !!!!
The third nuclear step is coming, and my guess is that they would cross number of centrifuges red line this time.
I'm afraid it is true. Iran has always been unique and because of that; alone. That actually comes from our resilience persisting on our own ways: Our own religion, our own language, our own calendar, our own approach to monarchy and now democracy,...…..
 
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continue of previous post
3- exiting nuclear deal and hot summer 1397
The third shifting point, American make threat against Iran about economic damages, and in spring of 1397 they operate their threats by exiting nuclear deal.
In my opinion, for understanding new wave of sanctions we must compare that with previous sanctions which happened during Obama time. The main difference is those who decide and implement sanctions and their backgrounds and their purposes. The sanctions are almost same by the way their implementation are different and that come from background of those responsible for this job.
2435532.jpg

https://www.brookings.edu/experts/richard-nephew/



A09957CF-435B-433D-AAB1-048D5989B84D_w408_r1_s.jpg

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/mandelker-iran-sanctions/594412/


with analyzing these two people we can understand sanctions and how they act and react which help us to create more precise scenarios for future which is not our purpose in this topic.
differences:
1- we have man and woman and as we know man and woman see the world differently and make decisions differently, mans most of the time sees issues more deeply and play longer game while woman sees issues more widely and play shorter game, each of these choices have their own advantages and disadvantages and are not better than other one.
2- for the guy Iran sanctions was part of his job and he was chosen b/c he was guy who know how to do his job well; in other hand the lady economic sanctions against Iran is personal war, she came from Jewish family and have strong ties with Zionists in Israel and other parts of the world.
.....

From there come differences in decision making center of sanctions against Iran and way that they implement sanctions against Iran.

In spring of 1397, USA exit Iran nuclear deal and operate it's threats against Iran in sanctions cases and at that time unrest in Iran haven't finished completely yet. At that time John Bolton promise hot summer and surprise for Iran. Also around that time Iran base in T4 was hit, That mean three cards were active at spring and summer of 1397. 1- economic card 2- internal unrest 3- kinetic war against Iranian military personnel
That huge hybrid pressure create atmosphere in USA administration that Iran would collapse soon
I remember people in Iran were preparing for famine in Iran by buying necessary foods and medicines :(

Unlike Obama Trump decided to play fast and shorter game and put huge pressure on Iran in shorter time to bring Iran to its knees in summer of 1397(2018) but as we know the pressure meet its end in spring 1398(2019) by completely bringing Iran oil sanction waivers to zero and put sanctions on all petrochemical and metal Iran exports. After that day America burned another important card which was threat of more sanctions. b/c there weren't more sanctions to impose on Iran after that time, While Iran from spring of 1397 till spring of 1398 managed to survive under USA harsh economic war and adopt itself to new situation.
till spring of 1398, USA lost two of its cards which were threat of more sanctions and internal unrest, so that was time to play its other cards more precisely and wisely.


4- Iran reactions under nuclear deal, and war threat b/w Iran and USA
In the anniversary of USA exit from Iran nuclear deal Iran announced 60 days mechanism to react against USA pressure on other parties to not do their obligations under deal.
That was big blow on the USA department and hawks b/c remaining Iran nuclear deal members did not recognize Iran announcement as important violation against deal. So USA tried to play one of its left cards more carefully and that was Iran and USA direct war in Persian gulf, at this time we saw tankers were burning and Japan prime minister and other European diplomats in Iran. I remember at that time German foreign minister( Heiko Maas) in Tehran next to Zarif said I here to help Iran from USA upcoming war, and Iran should be good boy and accept our requests. exactly 10 days later Iran shot down USA drone in Persian gulf and USA inability to respond clearly burned another big and important card which was direct war b/w Iran and USA which always as I said foreign ministers and presidents used when they had meeting with Iranian counterparts. After that day we are not hearing from them more about we are here to help Iran from upcoming USA attack!!!!

5- there is more cards left on USA hands and USA can recycle its lost cards by time, however Iran has not lost its cards yet and it can use them.
Sign of changing policy in Washington

She resign
:-)
 
Last edited:
.
How we could not see the jumps ????

All of Interview is important.(minute 14 second 30 more important)
He promised next year same time to discuss events that are coming.

lol
Published on Jun 9, 2019
note: time is before MQ-4 incident
What a cool guy, he also has amazing knowledge of the U.S. forces and current events....bravo! This guy does not live in a vacuum like other commanders. I'm very impressed. Also, he's right about America's undoing....spread to thin and too much cost. 700 bases is ridiculous any way you cut it.....poor Eisenhower, he warned them in the 1950's but the Military Industrial Complex got them anyway.
 
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What a cool guy, he also has amazing knowledge of the U.S. forces and current events....bravo! This guy does not live in a vacuum like other commanders. I'm very impressed. Also, he's right about America's undoing....spread to thin and too much cost. 700 bases is ridiculous any way you cut it.....poor Eisenhower, he warned them in the 1950's but the Military Industrial Complex got them anyway.
people like Obama and Farid Zakaria, ..... understood the problem, and they tried to solve problem before become too late.
I always thought by myself why superpowers like Spain, England or Soviet, and many more in history of mankind has failed, but now after watching Chinese parade I know why.

USA like England in the first part of 20 century, exhausting itself in non stop useless wars and creating enemy in any corner of the world, while china, like US in first part of 20 century, is building its industry and army and image non stop in the world.

The Chinese parade remember me the great white fleet of USA build by Theodore Roosevelt to show world friendly peaceful force.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_White_Fleet


I think US like past superpowers lost his long sight for future and just seeing few steps a head.
 
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people like Obama and Farid Zakaria, ..... understood the problem, and they tried to solve problem before become too late.
I always thought by myself why superpowers like Spain, England or Soviet, and many more in history of mankind has failed, but now after watching Chinese parade I know why.

USA like England in the first part of 20 century, exhausting itself in non stop useless wars and creating enemy in any corner of the world, while china, like US in first part of 20 century, is building its industry and army and image non stop in the world.

The Chinese parade remember me the great white fleet of USA build by Theodore Roosevelt to show world friendly peaceful force.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_White_Fleet


I think US like past superpowers lost his long sight for future and just seeing few steps a head.
I was just having a conversation about the end of U.S. superiority...I argued that it's too early to call the end of U.S.....I think if the U.S. gets a brave, smart president they can put their house in order pretty fast....but for now, they're throwing money they don't have away like it's going out of style...funny you brought up England but the same thing happened to Rome....maybe even other empires before Rome. So this kind of bad policy has been around for a long time. It's ironic there have been a few articles after the drone shoot down that are saying the incident is marking the beginning of the new multipolar world order. So yes, the U.S. power is waning but not to the point where it becomes inconsequential.
 
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I was just having a conversation about the end of U.S. superiority...I argued that it's too early to call the end of U.S.....I think if the U.S. gets a brave, smart president they can put their house in order pretty fast....but for now, they're throwing money they don't have away like it's going out of style...funny you brought up England but the same thing happened to Rome....maybe even other empires before Rome. So this kind of bad policy has been around for a long time. It's ironic there have been a few articles after the drone shoot down that are saying the incident is marking the beginning of the new multipolar world order. So yes, the U.S. power is waning but not to the point where it becomes inconsequential.
Absolutely,
even today, countries like Russia and England are big powers in world, I think you misunderstood what I said. what I mean is that today or future USA would be weaker than 90's USA.
Also, I think inside threat is bigger than outside threat for USA at the moment.
USA can not project power outside of its borders while there is big uncertainly and confusion inside.
 
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people like Obama and Farid Zakaria, ..... understood the problem, and they tried to solve problem before become too late.
I always thought by myself why superpowers like Spain, England or Soviet, and many more in history of mankind has failed, but now after watching Chinese parade I know why.

USA like England in the first part of 20 century, exhausting itself in non stop useless wars and creating enemy in any corner of the world, while china, like US in first part of 20 century, is building its industry and army and image non stop in the world.

The Chinese parade remember me the great white fleet of USA build by Theodore Roosevelt to show world friendly peaceful force.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_White_Fleet


I think US like past superpowers lost his long sight for future and just seeing few steps a head.
That is called "Arrogance". Unfortunately there is no running away from it when you become number 1 and at one point develope the delusion that you can take on the whole world by yourself. It is in human blood. All empires will eventually fall because of it.

I was just having a conversation about the end of U.S. superiority...I argued that it's too early to call the end of U.S.....I think if the U.S. gets a brave, smart president they can put their house in order pretty fast....but for now, they're throwing money they don't have away like it's going out of style...funny you brought up England but the same thing happened to Rome....maybe even other empires before Rome. So this kind of bad policy has been around for a long time. It's ironic there have been a few articles after the drone shoot down that are saying the incident is marking the beginning of the new multipolar world order. So yes, the U.S. power is waning but not to the point where it becomes inconsequential.
It is not up to one person. The whole society becomes lax and delusional. Nobody says US will fall overnight and becomes a 3rd world country. Specially nowadays that countries just go through a long decay instead of being wiped out by an invasion of their enemies.

A good descriptor of their behaviour is this:

5juoe.gif


They go through multiple growth and declines, each time weaker than the last time until they flatline. The typical lifetime for a civilization is calculated to be around 1000 years. This theory is best described in the "The life cycle of the civilizations" books if you are interested. And yes, Civilizations like Iran have gone through 2 - 3 different civilization lifetimes under the same name (pre-Islamic (520 BC - 6th century AC), Islamic (8th century - 18th century) and now modern Iran (20th century?)).
 
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Also, I think inside threat is bigger than outside threat for USA at the moment.
USA can not project power outside of its borders while there is big uncertainly and confusion inside.
It seems my mind reading of Iranian generals reaching to its end.
Is this that special moment ?
And what happened to Strategic jump and specially two years preparation for last trump summer ?
Will we see strange summer this year ?
 
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I love to see Strategic jump soon.
attack on Iran will end to nuclear war. Bastards on other side of world must understand this simple fact.
I think that you will clearly have to wait for the post rouhani era and its replacement regime for any strategic jumps.Politically rouhani and his regime has little left to offer iran apart from desperately clinging to the rotted corpse of his beloved jcpoa and hoping for a political miracle.
 
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