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Shahed-136 - Tracking usage & expanding understanding.

1. Old stock has to be replaced, when ukraine runs out of AIM120As they'll have to request AIM120Cs. When they run out of Sea Sparrows they will need ESSMs. A single AIM120C missile costs more than a hundred Shahed 136s
Even with the deep pockets of pentagon, this is not sustainable.

2. "best fefense" drone chasing drone, is going to have to be armed with sophisticated avionics to find and track shahed 136s. Again, not sustainable.

Reallistically you need laser point defense systems to deal with this ...and good luck getting that technology ready before the end of this war.
There are thousands of AIM120As and thousands of AIM7s and thousands of AIM9s in stock.

Sophisticated avionics? I could make FPV drones crash into other drones with its optics or preferably thermal optics, YOLOV and an AI dedicated processing unit for local recognition. A governmental body could easily make much better than this with more powerful drones.

Laser defenses are good for small states but bad for Ukraine, costs too much to protect too little territory.
 
There are thousands of AIM120As and thousands of AIM7s and thousands of AIM9s in stock.

Sophisticated avionics? I could make FPV drones crash into other drones with its optics or preferably thermal optics, YOLOV and an AI dedicated processing unit for local recognition. A governmental body could easily make much better than this with more powerful drones.

Laser defenses are good for small states but bad for Ukraine, costs too much to protect too little territory.
1) I don't know how many AIM120As are left, old munitions get fired during exercises and deplete over time. Suffice to say, the supply is limited. Shaheds are practically unlimited

2) LOL. no you can't. The avionics required to find, identify and track such a small target that could be flying at night, through weather... would cost many times the price of a shahed. And the system has to be faster and more agile to catch it. Who's going to fund the R&D and production of such a system that is specialized to catch just one type of drone and in all likelyhood will be obsolete by the time this war is over?

3) That's why I said point defense.
 
2) LOL. no you can't. The avionics required to find, identify and track such a small target that could be flying at night, through weather... would cost many times the price of a shahed. And the system has to be faster and more agile to catch it. Who's going to fund the R&D and production of such a system that is specialized to catch just one type of drone and in all likelyhood will be obsolete by the time this war is over?
I literally study this for 2 years already, although I am about to change my study subject.

It's not that big of a deal, especially if you have a team of engineers and a fund of like 500,000 dollars, you could create such a system from scratch and integrate it to radar systems/battle management systems, send the drone close to the target up until it recognises it via its own optics.

DARPA already developed something similar

And there's another American company that did it, can't seem to find the video though.
 
I don't know how many AIM120As are left, old munitions get fired during exercises and deplete over time. Suffice to say, the supply is limited. Shaheds are practically unlimited
The west can outproduce whatever Iran/Russia can produce. It can produce more missiles than Iran can produce drones and Iran will be bankrupt way before the west does.

If Israel can produce tens of thousands of Harpy/Harop/HERO drones, the west can produce 1000 times as much.

I am sure that's in the work.
 
The west can outproduce whatever Iran/Russia can produce. It can produce more missiles than Iran can produce drones and Iran will be bankrupt way before the west does.

If Israel can produce tens of thousands of Harpy/Harop/HERO drones, the west can produce 1000 times as much.

I am sure that's in the work.

US doesn’t have the political will for war. War with Iran or major axis power like China/Russia is a great way to get voted out of office. Even now Republicans backed by Trump want to stop aid to Ukraine - a mere proxy war.

Not to mention China-Russia-Iran society level can stomach economic tough times much more than a western citizen that complains when gas prices hit $4/gallon. Imagine a world where it hits $8. Global economies will tank.

Look at how fast the oil strategic reserve got depleted by Biden just to hedge some rising energy inflation costs in 2022. Now imagine a full blown war with oil terminals under attack, tankers under attack, and shipping companies pulling insurance. All you need is world oil production to drop by 10 percent and the world enters chaos.

War is much more than just who can produce more arms. If that were the case Iran would have been Saddam’d or Ghaddafi’d years ago.
 
US doesn’t have the political will for war. War with Iran or major axis power like China/Russia is a great way to get voted out of office. Even now Republicans backed by Trump want to stop aid to Ukraine - a mere proxy war.

Not to mention China-Russia-Iran society level can stomach economic tough times much more than a western citizen that complains when gas prices hit $4/gallon. Imagine a world where it hits $8. Global economies will tank.

Look at how fast the oil strategic reserve got depleted by Biden just to hedge some rising energy inflation costs in 2022. Now imagine a full blown war with oil terminals under attack, tankers under attack, and shipping companies pulling insurance. All you need is world oil production to drop by 10 percent and the world enters chaos.

War is much more than just who can produce more arms. If that were the case Iran would have been Saddam’d or Ghaddafi’d years ago.
Well that is unfair for example the subsidy paid by Iran on gas ain't paid to western citizens, in a probable war keeping balance between revenue and paying subsidies would be tough as it's already become a impossible task .. Unlike China, Iran and Russia main revenue are mostly from selling oil such a war would basically jeopardize their income with oil terminals under attack, tankers under attack, and shipping companies pulling insurance. ... not to mention the US as major oil producer would benefit from such a war as it put more pressure on countries like China or EU members that are dependent on importing oil than the US.
The US is a country based on military, war is their lifeline .. Bush started wars and got re-elected ... it depends on how they could sell the story to American people.


The west can outproduce whatever Iran/Russia can produce. It can produce more missiles than Iran can produce drones and Iran will be bankrupt way before the west does.

If Israel can produce tens of thousands of Harpy/Harop/HERO drones, the west can produce 1000 times as much.

I am sure that's in the work.
That is not entirely true as Biden said they are low on 155 mm artillery shells or as Der Spiegel wrote Germany's armed forces only have around 20,000 high explosive artillery shells left ... and all NATO are sending weapons to Ukraine and it ain't a direct war but proxy war.
 
That is not entirely true as Biden said they are low on 155 mm artillery shells or as Der Spiegel wrote Germany's armed forces only have around 20,000 high explosive artillery shells left ... and all NATO are sending weapons to Ukraine and it ain't a direct war but proxy war.
It's all about Excalibur shells, not dumb 155mm shells. I'd rather have 10,000 Excalibur shells than 10,000,000 dumb shells.

Rusisa fires a bunch of dumb artillery with minimum effect, meanwhile Ukraine launches Excaliburs and GMLRS at Russian artillery batteries at an unprecedented rate.
 
Well that is unfair for example the subsidy paid by Iran on gas ain't paid to western citizens, in a probable war keeping balance between revenue and paying subsidies would be tough as it's already become a impossible task

I’m saying a country that is 50% in poverty already and has handled a 8 year imposed war and 40 years of US embargo and sanctions can handle war a lot better than the average American. Good times have made Americans weak and divided (not their soldiers, but it’s society). This is not America of 1940’s hell it isn’t even America of hippy anti war of 1970’s. It is a fractured and paralyzed governance up to its eye balls in debt and paying $1T USD in interest a year to fund its debt fueled growth cycle + all the entitlement programs and a 900B dollar bloated military that can’t even tell us what the UAPs affecting our world for past 200 years are.

The inflation of 2022 showed how fast the strategic oil reserve can be depleted. It was a myth that it could help weather any major global catastrophe.

.. Unlike China, Iran and Russia main revenue are mostly from selling oil

This is not true. Oil sales make up less than 30% of Iran’s revenue as of 2020 and less than 10% of GDP. Compare this to 60% of revenues and 30% of GDP back in 2008.

Iran’s major oil field discoveries were made before 1965. 75% of that oil has been extracted. A few fields have been found since then that has kept the depletion rate at 4% a year and oil production rather steady rather than classic sharp drop off as wells get tapped out.

Without major exploration or funding, Iran knows its oil production will slowly fall. Hence moving away from it as a dependent source of revenue. Iran has plenty of other natural resources, value chain add goods, and not to mention #1 in the world in Nat gas reserves.

such a war would basically jeopardize their income with oil terminals under attack, tankers under attack, and shipping companies pulling insurance.

You forget during the Tanker wars oil was less than $15 a barrel and Iran survived with attacks on oil assets. Now Oil is $85+ dollars a barrel just by Russia and OPEC cutting supply by a mere 1M barrels of oil.

If Iran attacks major oil terminals they will be offline for 3-6 months add in a few tankers and even more. I’m not talking about a few drones towards Amaraco, I’m saying 100 missiles/day equipped with cluster warheads for maximum damage hitting every major oil and energy terminal in Middle East and Africa. That means Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq (they would merely align with Iran), Libya. Add in attacks on Azerbaijan and others with natural gas pipelines or exports to Europe for added measure.

Again Iran only needs to affect less than 10% of world oil production to cause a global meltdown. Oil prices will shoot up above $150 a barrel possibly even north of $200.

Both US and EU would have to activate strategic reserves but that would be like pissing into a hurricane in terms of affecting oil prices, it would merely be a desperate attempt to keep their economy semi-running and would run out very quickly. Would make the oil embargo of 1970 look like a walk in the park.

Meanwhile Iran will still be able to sell SOME amount to to desperate nearby countries like Turkey and its economic ally China. Enough to make let’s say $30B a year quite easily which is all it needs to balance its budget. US says Iran made around $45B from oil and its derivative products in 2022 for reference.

Russia would hold its oil as a noose over EU’s head while prioritizing China and India. Poorer EU countries would fall quickly into depression. Global faminine would set in quickly for countries that don’t have massive FX currency reserves to buy grains at higher prices. Take the Ukraine grain crisis and raise it up by a factor of 100.

Bank runs would happen across the world as people panic and try to convert to the most stable fiat currencies and precious metals. causing trillions in financial derivative products unwind leading to financial meltdowns in the global financial system.

... not to mention the US as major oil producer would benefit from such a war as it put more pressure on countries like China or EU members that are dependent on importing oil than the US.

More misinformation. Many US oil refineries (built long ago) are not made for US oil. So yes US produces quite a bit of oil no disputing that, but still imports quite a bit:

The top five sources of U.S. crude oil imports for June were Canada (3.8 million b/d), Mexico (834,000 b/d), Saudi Arabia (383,000 b/d), Brazil (220,000 b/d), and Colombia (204,000 b/d).

In a war time scenario these countries would stop exporting and hoard oil. So US would have to find 5-6M barrels of oil per day from SOMEWHERE or reconfigure its oil refineries to take WTI and other shale basin oil—easier said than done. Shortages would be widespread and oil reserve would be depleted in months not years.

So on one hand US oil exports revenues would go up like you said, but US ain’t exactly strapped for cash. On the other hand it would face an oil shortage as decades mismanagement policy of energy investment (refining) would mean it would be short ~5+ m b/d of much needed oil to keep its domestic economy running.

With 70% of its GDP (more like 100%) coming from its own domestic consumption of goods — a depression wouldn’t be out of the question. This could cause a cascade as US debt finally falls out of favor and US enters a money printing inflation run away affect as Treaurey auctions lead to limited foreign and domestic buyers causing FED to buy its own debt an unsustainable practice even for the biggest economic superpower in world history.

put more pressure on countries like China or EU members that are dependent on importing oil than the US.

China would merely buy more from Russia and Iran. China could use its massive armada to escort tankers back to China. Any attack on those tankers by US and NATO would risk WW3 and a global war.

EU would be in a bind and whatever happens in EU affects the Western world order led by US. So it’s not as isolationist you make it seem.


That is not entirely true as Biden said they are low on 155 mm artillery shells or as Der Spiegel wrote Germany's armed forces only have around 20,000 high explosive artillery shells left ... and all NATO are sending weapons to Ukraine and it ain't a direct war but proxy war.

Correct assessment. Russia is building 200 tanks a year. 2M shells a year. And 7X the ammunition of NATO. The Western military industrial complex is bloated with ancient supply chains supplying weaponry at a high cost to world governments as publicly traded for profit entities.

US debt to GDP was 120% AFTER WW2. It was brought down by taxing the rich at 90% and taxing bond holders of US debt.

Now debt to GDP % is already that in peace time in 2023. So Good luck printing money in war time and ballooning to 250% debt to GDP with a major war with Iran.

You think inflation is bad now? Wait till then. Switching to a war economy won’t be as easy people make it.

The US is a country based on military, war is their lifeline .. Bush started wars and got re-elected ... it depends on how they could sell the story to American people.

Little wars in the Middle East that consume trillions of dollars but don’t make the US society bear any costs is easy to accept by society. A major war affecting everyday life and thrusting tens of millions of americans into poverty overnight is another thing entirely.

US hasn’t fought a major adversary since Korea. A bunch of Taliban and a decript Iraqi Republican guard is a joke. Iran’s foreign legions number north of ~200K + the Houthi’s ability to shut down the Red Sea and attack the Suez canal halting world trade. Look what a sideways tanker did the world for less than a month. Now imagine the Suez Canal permanently out of commission for a period of time.

With a BM stockpile and silo mechanism that has mountain bases impervious to nuclear strikes (a tricky proposition in itself) means Iran and HZ will get to deal the damage they need to ensure MAD doctrine.

If we follow basic military strategy where invading force needs 3x multiplier against defender to avoid a war of attrition; then If Iran fields merely 750,000 soldiers (no Basij miltiamen which is 3M+) plus Hezbollah + Foreign legions (Iraq militias, Syria, Pakistan Shiite, etc) + Houthis = you are talking about a mobilization of 1.5M+ US soldiers just to secure the Middle East. That is a conservative estimate. Likely north of 2M if you count Navy and Air Force and support staff.

This is highly impractical as it would mean US would have to move most of its war machine to the Middle East - leaving Taiwan and Europe vulnerable to Russia or China taking their chance as USA is distracted putting out fires throughout the Middle East.

US war machine would consume fuel at an unimaginable rate…fuel that is suddenly VERY expensive and hard to source due to previously mentioned energy crisis. How long you think US can do that with everything else going on? Ask Imperial Japan how its war machine did once US cut off its energy supply. US is far from home cowboy. Took over 6 months for US to get its military assets in place in the Middle East for Persian Gulf War 1.

Now let’s add in Iran is a mountain people society and not flat grassland (Ukraine) or desert arid (Iraq) and you now have logistical challenges akin to Napoleons ill fated war.

This is why Iran is one Pentagon’s favorite war planning scenarios more than China, because they represent such unique challenges and the scale of the war would be from Lebanon to Iran to Yemen. As nearly any US general will tell you, predicting the first order of events is possible to an extent, it’s 2nd and 3rd order of events that are completely unpredictable. Generals don’t have economics degrees or understand how the global financial system since 1945 operates. This is how Empires unravel - one strategic mistake.

So to conclude: Good luck “selling” that to the US public. Sending contract soldiers to kill some Taliban is one thing, sending sons and fathers and brothers of ordinary citizens is a whole another ball game. It ain’t 1940 or 1960’s. The average American men these days have been spoiled by half a century of “good times”.

Trust me when I say the Pentagon and every major decision maker in Washington knows the consequences of war with Iran and it’s less to do with a militarily head to head match up that is skewed highly against Iran. Iran has achieved Mutual Assured Destruction via its ability to potentially plunge the world economically into a global depression not seen maybe in modern times.

Within 12 months of war it would have amassed enough nuclear bombs using hidden centrifuge enrichment labs equipped with IR-4. It would have moved to converting its many long range solid fuel engines SLVs into a ICBM delivery system effectively forcing the US into ending the land war or risk humanity going back thousands of years.

So yes the $900B vaunted US military will definitely get its punches in and they will certainly hurt Iran. But “bomb Iran back to Stone Age” means the average American will see himself there as well.

The only move to make is to not play and hope Iran implodes on its own or detente is achieved. That has been US policy since 2003.
 
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I literally study this for 2 years already, although I am about to change my study subject.

It's not that big of a deal, especially if you have a team of engineers and a fund of like 500,000 dollars, you could create such a system from scratch and integrate it to radar systems/battle management systems, send the drone close to the target up until it recognises it via its own optics.

DARPA already developed something similar

And there's another American company that did it, can't seem to find the video though.

This is a little bit different, the drone isn't spent after intercepting the other drone...

Are we going to get air superiority drones 10 years into the future? Is this where the world is going to? Certainly intriguing.

US doesn’t have the political will for war. War with Iran or major axis power like China/Russia is a great way to get voted out of office. Even now Republicans backed by Trump want to stop aid to Ukraine - a mere proxy war.

Not to mention China-Russia-Iran society level can stomach economic tough times much more than a western citizen that complains when gas prices hit $4/gallon. Imagine a world where it hits $8. Global economies will tank.

Look at how fast the oil strategic reserve got depleted by Biden just to hedge some rising energy inflation costs in 2022. Now imagine a full blown war with oil terminals under attack, tankers under attack, and shipping companies pulling insurance. All you need is world oil production to drop by 10 percent and the world enters chaos.

War is much more than just who can produce more arms. If that were the case Iran would have been Saddam’d or Ghaddafi’d years ago.
American public didn't want to enter the WWII either. Something like %90 of Americans were against war.

They, the establishment, the powers that be, whatever you want to call them, they just pushed Japan into a corner, and mate them start the war.

Don't believe Trump for a second. He wanted to do the same thing, that's why he killed Suleimani. But Iran didn't take the bait.
 
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I’m saying a country that is 50% in poverty already and has handled a 8 year imposed war and 40 years of US embargo and sanctions can handle war a lot better than the average American. Good times have made Americans weak and divided (not their soldiers, but it’s society). This is not America of 1940’s hell it isn’t even America of hippy anti war of 1970’s. It is a fractured and paralyzed governance up to its eye balls in debt and paying $1T USD in interest a year to fund its debt fueled growth cycle + all the entitlement programs and a 900B dollar bloated military that can’t even tell us what the UAPs affecting our world for past 200 years are.

The inflation of 2022 showed how fast the strategic oil reserve can be depleted. It was a myth that it could help weather any major global catastrophe.



This is not true. Oil sales make up less than 30% of Iran’s revenue as of 2020 and less than 10% of GDP. Compare this to 60% of revenues and 30% of GDP back in 2008.

Iran’s major oil field discoveries were made before 1965. 75% of that oil has been extracted. A few fields have been found since then that has kept the depletion rate at 4% a year and oil production rather steady rather than classic sharp drop off as wells get tapped out.

Without major exploration or funding, Iran knows its oil production will slowly fall. Hence moving away from it as a dependent source of revenue. Iran has plenty of other natural resources, value chain add goods, and not to mention #1 in the world in Nat gas reserves.



You forget during the Tanker wars oil was less than $15 a barrel and Iran survived with attacks on oil assets. Now Oil is $85+ dollars a barrel just by Russia and OPEC cutting supply by a mere 1M barrels of oil.

If Iran attacks major oil terminals they will be offline for 3-6 months add in a few tankers and even more. I’m not talking about a few drones towards Amaraco, I’m saying 100 missiles/day equipped with cluster warheads for maximum damage hitting every major oil and energy terminal in Middle East and Africa. That means Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq (they would merely align with Iran), Libya. Add in attacks on Azerbaijan and others with natural gas pipelines or exports to Europe for added measure.

Again Iran only needs to affect less than 10% of world oil production to cause a global meltdown. Oil prices will shoot up above $150 a barrel possibly even north of $200.

Both US and EU would have to activate strategic reserves but that would be like pissing into a hurricane in terms of affecting oil prices, it would merely be a desperate attempt to keep their economy semi-running and would run out very quickly. Would make the oil embargo of 1970 look like a walk in the park.

Meanwhile Iran will still be able to sell SOME amount to to desperate nearby countries like Turkey and its economic ally China. Enough to make let’s say $30B a year quite easily which is all it needs to balance its budget. US says Iran made around $45B from oil and its derivative products in 2022 for reference.

Russia would hold its oil as a noose over EU’s head while prioritizing China and India. Poorer EU countries would fall quickly into depression. Global faminine would set in quickly for countries that don’t have massive FX currency reserves to buy grains at higher prices. Take the Ukraine grain crisis and raise it up by a factor of 100.

Bank runs would happen across the world as people panic and try to convert to the most stable fiat currencies and precious metals. causing trillions in financial derivative products unwind leading to financial meltdowns in the global financial system.



More misinformation. Many US oil refineries (built long ago) are not made for US oil. So yes US produces quite a bit of oil no disputing that, but still imports quite a bit:

The top five sources of U.S. crude oil imports for June were Canada (3.8 million b/d), Mexico (834,000 b/d), Saudi Arabia (383,000 b/d), Brazil (220,000 b/d), and Colombia (204,000 b/d).

In a war time scenario these countries would stop exporting and hoard oil. So US would have to find 5-6M barrels of oil per day from SOMEWHERE or reconfigure its oil refineries to take WTI and other shale basin oil—easier said than done. Shortages would be widespread and oil reserve would be depleted in months not years.

So on one hand US oil exports revenues would go up like you said, but US ain’t exactly strapped for cash. On the other hand it would face an oil shortage as decades mismanagement policy of energy investment (refining) would mean it would be short ~5+ m b/d of much needed oil to keep its domestic economy running.

With 70% of its GDP (more like 100%) coming from its own domestic consumption of goods — a depression wouldn’t be out of the question. This could cause a cascade as US debt finally falls out of favor and US enters a money printing inflation run away affect as Treaurey auctions lead to limited foreign and domestic buyers causing FED to buy its own debt an unsustainable practice even for the biggest economic superpower in world history.



China would merely buy more from Russia and Iran. China could use its massive armada to escort tankers back to China. Any attack on those tankers by US and NATO would risk WW3 and a global war.

EU would be in a bind and whatever happens in EU affects the Western world order led by US. So it’s not as isolationist you make it seem.




Correct assessment. Russia is building 200 tanks a year. 2M shells a year. And 7X the ammunition of NATO. The Western military industrial complex is bloated with ancient supply chains supplying weaponry at a high cost to world governments as publicly traded for profit entities.

US debt to GDP was 120% AFTER WW2. It was brought down by taxing the rich at 90% and taxing bond holders of US debt.

Now debt to GDP % is already that in peace time in 2023. So Good luck printing money in war time and ballooning to 250% debt to GDP with a major war with Iran.

You think inflation is bad now? Wait till then. Switching to a war economy won’t be as easy people make it.



Little wars in the Middle East that consume trillions of dollars but don’t make the US society bear any costs is easy to accept by society. A major war affecting everyday life and thrusting tens of millions of americans into poverty overnight is another thing entirely.

US hasn’t fought a major adversary since Korea. A bunch of Taliban and a decript Iraqi Republican guard is a joke. Iran’s foreign legions number north of ~200K + the Houthi’s ability to shut down the Red Sea and attack the Suez canal halting world trade. Look what a sideways tanker did the world for less than a month. Now imagine the Suez Canal permanently out of commission for a period of time.

With a BM stockpile and silo mechanism that has mountain bases impervious to nuclear strikes (a tricky proposition in itself) means Iran and HZ will get to deal the damage they need to ensure MAD doctrine.

If we follow basic military strategy where invading force needs 3x multiplier against defender to avoid a war of attrition; then If Iran fields merely 750,000 soldiers (no Basij miltiamen which is 3M+) plus Hezbollah + Foreign legions (Iraq militias, Syria, Pakistan Shiite, etc) + Houthis = you are talking about a mobilization of 1.5M+ US soldiers just to secure the Middle East. That is a conservative estimate. Likely north of 2M if you count Navy and Air Force and support staff.

This is highly impractical as it would mean US would have to move most of its war machine to the Middle East - leaving Taiwan and Europe vulnerable to Russia or China taking their chance as USA is distracted putting out fires throughout the Middle East.

US war machine would consume fuel at an unimaginable rate…fuel that is suddenly VERY expensive and hard to source due to previously mentioned energy crisis. How long you think US can do that with everything else going on? Ask Imperial Japan how its war machine did once US cut off its energy supply. US is far from home cowboy. Took over 6 months for US to get its military assets in place in the Middle East for Persian Gulf War 1.

Now let’s add in Iran is a mountain people society and not flat grassland (Ukraine) or desert arid (Iraq) and you now have logistical challenges akin to Napoleons ill fated war.

This is why Iran is one Pentagon’s favorite war planning scenarios more than China, because they represent such unique challenges and the scale of the war would be from Lebanon to Iran to Yemen. As nearly any US general will tell you, predicting the first order of events is possible to an extent, it’s 2nd and 3rd order of events that are completely unpredictable. Generals don’t have economics degrees or understand how the global financial system since 1945 operates. This is how Empires unravel - one strategic mistake.

So to conclude: Good luck “selling” that to the US public. Sending contract soldiers to kill some Taliban is one thing, sending sons and fathers and brothers of ordinary citizens is a whole another ball game. It ain’t 1940 or 1960’s. The average American men these days have been spoiled by half a century of “good times”.

Trust me when I say the Pentagon and every major decision maker in Washington knows the consequences of war with Iran and it’s less to do with a militarily head to head match up that is skewed highly against Iran. Iran has achieved Mutual Assured Destruction via its ability to potentially plunge the world economically into a global depression not seen maybe in modern times.

Within 12 months of war it would have amassed enough nuclear bombs using hidden centrifuge enrichment labs equipped with IR-4. It would have moved to converting its many long range solid fuel engines SLVs into a ICBM delivery system effectively forcing the US into ending the land war or risk humanity going back thousands of years.

So yes the $900B vaunted US military will definitely get its punches in and they will certainly hurt Iran. But “bomb Iran back to Stone Age” means the average American will see himself there as well.

The only move to make is to not play and hope Iran implodes on its own or detente is achieved. That has been US policy since 2003.
As comparing a probable war against Iran in scale, reverberation and consequences with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would be a invalid naive assessment, considering that the US would use the same military power,tactics and equipment as it deployed in aforementioned wars against Iran is wrong too ... for example the American started a project called grey wolf since 2017 to develop cheap cruise missile to saturate and defeat enemy air defenses network as a counter-IAD ... never faced such a thing in Iraq or Afghanistan to use them ...

In a war time scenario why those countries would stop exporting and hoard oil while they can sell it by higher prices like Iran does? and why do you think the US can not manage such a shortage? in battle of the Caribbean Germans targeted the American oil tankers that led to shortage of gasoline and rationing it even caused restriction in driving and ceasing car and bicycle production ... what I mean is others can do the same and endure hardships you may say it's been 7 decades ago but not impossible as almost the same thing happened in 1973-4 by Arab oil embargo that led to banning Christmas and commercial lighting, gasoline rationing program ... now and unlike old days the US is one of the biggest oil producer though it produced average 9 million barrel per day back then too but a lot has differed since then...
Moreover do you think by causing maximum damage hitting every major oil and energy terminal in Middle East and Africa our oil terminal in Persian gulf would remain intact? what would be their military reactions? Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq , Libya, Azerbaijan?Europe? would sack their yogurt? or join the uncle Sam to hit you back? what if in Tanker wars oil the US would have continue Operation Praying Mantis? can you still export oil to China $30B a year? if prices are already high then what is the risk to attack Iranian ones?
Persian proverb says "thousands friends ain't enough as one enemy is a lot" your art in a war is bringing more & more people on your side not to make more enemy unless you see no turn back. A a global meltdown would caused damage to everyone, international economy and financial system will be at stake so hard to expect no one react.
China oil consumption is around 14.5 million while Iran and Russia oil production combined is less than this though with their own internal consumption and if production rate would remain intact it is much less than that ... besides as you said China would merely buy more from Russia and Iran that means in a war with higher prices it costs more and slow down their economy .. would they be happy? one of the reason that Iran never closed Hormuz is this.

At last "A country that is 50% in poverty already and has handled a 8 year imposed war and 40 years of US embargo and sanctions can handle war a lot better than the average American OR might break more easily as it resources has been depleted and no hope remained ... hell This is not Iran of 1980’s or even 2015. you could see it in immigration rate. for sure Iraq in 2003 was not Iraq in 1988.
 
These can also be used for radio location to find enemy radars position. I think Ukraine might be adapting their similar variants to detect positions of S300 systems then to attack with storm shadow cms. Russia can adapt their Geran as well. A drone swarm equipped with radio locators can locate Ukranian patriot-nasams radars from sufficient long distance maybe 50km+ then attack with Iskander-kynzhal. Some of the Gerans can return back with parachute for reuse. Flight profile needs to be at a higher altitude to escape from shorads and connect with enemy long range radars.
 
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Seems like the usage of this system is continuing at a solid rate, (which means supply chains are holding up well) likely up till the end of the war.
 
Seems like the usage of this system is continuing at a solid rate, (which means supply chains are holding up well) likely up till the end of the war.
I really cant believe Ukraine and NATO havent come up with an effective solution to GERANIS in this war, not doing so could potentially cost Ukraine its country, lol.

Geraniums to Ukraine war = IEDs to Afghanistan war?

Cheap but cost effective solution that ends up breaking the back of the "technologically advanced" adversary.
 
I really cant believe Ukraine and NATO havent come up with an effective solution to GERANIS in this war, not doing so could potentially cost Ukraine its country, lol.

Geraniums to Ukraine war = IEDs to Afghanistan war?

Cheap but cost effective solution that ends up breaking the back of the "technologically advanced" adversary.

There is no good solution to counter Shaheds as the issue here is cost of production and volume. If they can solve their supply chain issues with fabricating enough systems to tackle Shaheds economically, then the threat they pose becomes significantly reduced. Yet Russia/Iran can rely on sheer volume of fire, exponentially increasing costs to defend as a remediation effort.

These cheap, long range cruise missiles are a true headache to deal with.
 

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