Well that is unfair for example the subsidy paid by Iran on gas ain't paid to western citizens, in a probable war keeping balance between revenue and paying subsidies would be tough as it's already become a impossible task
I’m saying a country that is 50% in poverty already and has handled a 8 year imposed war and 40 years of US embargo and sanctions can handle war a lot better than the average American. Good times have made Americans weak and divided (not their soldiers, but it’s society). This is not America of 1940’s hell it isn’t even America of hippy anti war of 1970’s. It is a fractured and paralyzed governance up to its eye balls in debt and paying $1T USD in interest a year to fund its debt fueled growth cycle + all the entitlement programs and a 900B dollar bloated military that can’t even tell us what the UAPs affecting our world for past 200 years are.
The inflation of 2022 showed how fast the strategic oil reserve can be depleted. It was a myth that it could help weather any major global catastrophe.
.. Unlike China, Iran and Russia main revenue are mostly from selling oil
This is not true. Oil sales make up less than 30% of Iran’s revenue as of 2020 and less than 10% of GDP. Compare this to 60% of revenues and 30% of GDP back in 2008.
Iran’s major oil field discoveries were made before 1965. 75% of that oil has been extracted. A few fields have been found since then that has kept the depletion rate at 4% a year and oil production rather steady rather than classic sharp drop off as wells get tapped out.
Without major exploration or funding, Iran knows its oil production will slowly fall. Hence moving away from it as a dependent source of revenue. Iran has plenty of other natural resources, value chain add goods, and not to mention #1 in the world in Nat gas reserves.
such a war would basically jeopardize their income with oil terminals under attack, tankers under attack, and shipping companies pulling insurance.
You forget during the Tanker wars oil was less than $15 a barrel and Iran survived with attacks on oil assets. Now Oil is $85+ dollars a barrel just by Russia and OPEC cutting supply by a mere 1M barrels of oil.
If Iran attacks major oil terminals they will be offline for 3-6 months add in a few tankers and even more. I’m not talking about a few drones towards Amaraco, I’m saying 100 missiles/day equipped with cluster warheads for maximum damage hitting every major oil and energy terminal in Middle East and Africa. That means Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq (they would merely align with Iran), Libya. Add in attacks on Azerbaijan and others with natural gas pipelines or exports to Europe for added measure.
Again Iran only needs to affect less than 10% of world oil production to cause a global meltdown. Oil prices will shoot up above $150 a barrel possibly even north of $200.
Both US and EU would have to activate strategic reserves but that would be like pissing into a hurricane in terms of affecting oil prices, it would merely be a desperate attempt to keep their economy semi-running and would run out very quickly. Would make the oil embargo of 1970 look like a walk in the park.
Meanwhile Iran will still be able to sell SOME amount to to desperate nearby countries like Turkey and its economic ally China. Enough to make let’s say $30B a year quite easily which is all it needs to balance its budget. US says Iran made around $45B from oil and its derivative products in 2022 for reference.
Russia would hold its oil as a noose over EU’s head while prioritizing China and India. Poorer EU countries would fall quickly into depression. Global faminine would set in quickly for countries that don’t have massive FX currency reserves to buy grains at higher prices. Take the Ukraine grain crisis and raise it up by a factor of 100.
Bank runs would happen across the world as people panic and try to convert to the most stable fiat currencies and precious metals. causing trillions in financial derivative products unwind leading to financial meltdowns in the global financial system.
... not to mention the US as major oil producer would benefit from such a war as it put more pressure on countries like China or EU members that are dependent on importing oil than the US.
More misinformation. Many US oil refineries (built long ago) are not made for US oil. So yes US produces quite a bit of oil no disputing that, but still imports quite a bit:
The top five sources of U.S. crude oil imports for June were Canada (3.8 million b/d), Mexico (834,000 b/d), Saudi Arabia (383,000 b/d), Brazil (220,000 b/d), and Colombia (204,000 b/d).
In a war time scenario these countries would stop exporting and hoard oil. So US would have to find 5-6M barrels of oil per day from SOMEWHERE or reconfigure its oil refineries to take WTI and other shale basin oil—easier said than done. Shortages would be widespread and oil reserve would be depleted in months not years.
So on one hand US oil exports revenues would go up like you said, but US ain’t exactly strapped for cash. On the other hand it would face an oil shortage as decades mismanagement policy of energy investment (refining) would mean it would be short ~5+ m b/d of much needed oil to keep its domestic economy running.
With 70% of its GDP (more like 100%) coming from its own domestic consumption of goods — a depression wouldn’t be out of the question. This could cause a cascade as US debt finally falls out of favor and US enters a money printing inflation run away affect as Treaurey auctions lead to limited foreign and domestic buyers causing FED to buy its own debt an unsustainable practice even for the biggest economic superpower in world history.
put more pressure on countries like China or EU members that are dependent on importing oil than the US.
China would merely buy more from Russia and Iran. China could use its massive armada to escort tankers back to China. Any attack on those tankers by US and NATO would risk WW3 and a global war.
EU would be in a bind and whatever happens in EU affects the Western world order led by US. So it’s not as isolationist you make it seem.
That is not entirely true as Biden said they are low on 155 mm artillery shells or as Der Spiegel wrote Germany's armed forces only have around 20,000 high explosive artillery shells left ... and all NATO are sending weapons to Ukraine and it ain't a direct war but proxy war.
Correct assessment. Russia is building 200 tanks a year. 2M shells a year. And 7X the ammunition of NATO. The Western military industrial complex is bloated with ancient supply chains supplying weaponry at a high cost to world governments as publicly traded for profit entities.
US debt to GDP was 120%
AFTER WW2. It was brought down by taxing the rich at 90% and taxing bond holders of US debt.
Now debt to GDP % is
already that in peace time in 2023. So Good luck printing money in war time and ballooning to 250% debt to GDP with a major war with Iran.
You think inflation is bad now? Wait till then. Switching to a war economy won’t be as easy people make it.
The US is a country based on military, war is their lifeline .. Bush started wars and got re-elected ... it depends on how they could sell the story to American people.
Little wars in the Middle East that consume trillions of dollars but don’t make the US society bear any costs is easy to accept by society. A major war affecting everyday life and thrusting tens of millions of americans into poverty overnight is another thing entirely.
US hasn’t fought a major adversary since Korea. A bunch of Taliban and a decript Iraqi Republican guard is a joke. Iran’s foreign legions number north of ~200K + the Houthi’s ability to shut down the Red Sea and attack the Suez canal halting world trade. Look what a sideways tanker did the world for less than a month. Now imagine the Suez Canal permanently out of commission for a period of time.
With a BM stockpile and silo mechanism that has mountain bases impervious to nuclear strikes (a tricky proposition in itself) means Iran and HZ will get to deal the damage they need to ensure MAD doctrine.
If we follow basic military strategy where invading force needs 3x multiplier against defender to avoid a war of attrition; then If Iran fields merely 750,000 soldiers (no Basij miltiamen which is 3M+) plus Hezbollah + Foreign legions (Iraq militias, Syria, Pakistan Shiite, etc) + Houthis = you are talking about a mobilization of 1.5M+ US soldiers just to secure the Middle East. That is a conservative estimate. Likely north of 2M if you count Navy and Air Force and support staff.
This is highly impractical as it would mean US would have to move most of its war machine to the Middle East - leaving Taiwan and Europe vulnerable to Russia or China taking their chance as USA is distracted putting out fires throughout the Middle East.
US war machine would consume fuel at an unimaginable rate…fuel that is suddenly VERY expensive and hard to source due to previously mentioned energy crisis. How long you think US can do that with everything else going on? Ask Imperial Japan how its war machine did once US cut off its energy supply. US is far from home cowboy. Took over 6 months for US to get its military assets in place in the Middle East for Persian Gulf War 1.
Now let’s add in Iran is a mountain people society and not flat grassland (Ukraine) or desert arid (Iraq) and you now have logistical challenges akin to Napoleons ill fated war.
This is why Iran is one Pentagon’s favorite war planning scenarios more than China, because they represent such unique challenges and the scale of the war would be from Lebanon to Iran to Yemen. As nearly any US general will tell you, predicting the first order of events is possible to an extent, it’s 2nd and 3rd order of events that are completely unpredictable. Generals don’t have economics degrees or understand how the global financial system since 1945 operates. This is how Empires unravel - one strategic mistake.
So to conclude: Good luck “selling” that to the US public. Sending contract soldiers to kill some Taliban is one thing, sending sons and fathers and brothers of ordinary citizens is a whole another ball game. It ain’t 1940 or 1960’s. The average American men these days have been spoiled by half a century of “good times”.
Trust me when I say the Pentagon and every major decision maker in Washington knows the consequences of war with Iran and it’s less to do with a militarily head to head match up that is skewed highly against Iran. Iran has achieved Mutual Assured Destruction via its ability to potentially plunge the world economically into a global depression not seen maybe in modern times.
Within 12 months of war it would have amassed enough nuclear bombs using hidden centrifuge enrichment labs equipped with IR-4. It would have moved to converting its many long range solid fuel engines SLVs into a ICBM delivery system effectively forcing the US into ending the land war or risk humanity going back thousands of years.
So yes the $900B vaunted US military will definitely get its punches in and they will certainly hurt Iran. But “bomb Iran back to Stone Age” means the average American will see himself there as well.
The only move to make is to not play and hope Iran implodes on its own or detente is achieved. That has been US policy since 2003.
