Really nice thread. Read every post and then thought to chip-in with some of my own brain farts
Firstly, there was a post about PAF problems in near future with regards to Rafale and MKI. No one can deny that these are coupled with good IAF SAMs coverage are the most critical challenges for PAF.
Now to the bright side, out of all IAF Sukhoi fleet, 50% is not available at any given time. Rafale delivery will not start before 2018 to be earliest.
Now, PAF and other services all have some strategy at higher level. You will all agree that Pakistan can never match India 1 to 1 considering 1:8 difference by size. At the moment, Indian defense budget is crossing Pakistan's total Federal budget. What do you expect should be the procurement strategy for PAF?
Doesn't this make sense, why PAF is still trying to get it hands on F16s (new and used alike)?
Why in last 15 years or so.. establishment has taken a defensive posture despite very aggressive tone and interference (Balochistan/FATA) in Pakistan by other side?
In this period of history, open wars are not economically and politically feasible. More and more "Proxy wars" are being fought to achieve political and military objectives. Here Pakistan fails miserably and India wins every time, because of good diplomatic and political strategy.
Should we not be asking ourselves, why India occupies Siachin violating Shimla agreement and Pakistan has to leave Kargil in same scenario?
So will it ever be possible to achieve decisive edge over India with current political and diplomatic situation of Pakistan (even if somehow we arrange finances?)
We saw it with French option, we are seeing it for Vipers purchase (hint: lobbies active in USA)
You will see it, if you are on some understanding with Russia.
The best ever happened for Pakistan is, when the deals came as a surprise.. Just out of blue.
You make noise over it, the deal is gone right in the middle.
PAF has a good relation with Italy in various fields. Let them sort it out behind close doors. I believe in PAF with my heart, that they are and will make good choices.
Both PAF and IAF knows, that there is not going to be an open conflict in near future. India is waiting for a golden opportunity like 1971 to arise. That too with solid guarantees from the West to jump ahead. They are smart enough to keep preparing for that. Fortunately they have good economy, political stability, huge market to support their aims.
In case of PAF, there is nothing going their way.
When your sitting PM, Ex President and Ex Ambassador to USA (just to name a few) are 6-columnist.. can things go worse then that?
Sooner the better, establishment has to intervene in economy and diplomacy also. Holy Cow.. the oil is below $30. It is the best time to build Pakistan reserves, pay bad debts and improve the economy.
Lets put our efforts to highlight the economy, then believe me, Selex or even his father will be lining to get a contract..
Looking at the current IAF inventory, even if 36 (2 squadrons) Thunders get equipped with the listed AESA and other goodies from Selex, it will be good for quite a long time. I am talking about "deterrent", just the level to prevent India to attack. This is the only objective to meet right now.
The best thing with Thunder is that, its ours. We can integrate, what ever is available to us. I have no reference but my understanding says that people somewhere are closely looking at IAFs procurement. They will unveil Blk-3 accordingly. There is an other thread running about PAF plans to counter Rafale.. We will see about that in coming years. Mark my word.. IAF has bought not 1 but 2 white elephants. Lets see how they go about with that