Russian Military Intervention Reality Check

[FlyCheatter]

Insult to our intelligence: New information war against Russia — RT Op-Edge

 

[Rukarl]

Mate, I am not saying that Russia is a pushover or not a world power but there is really (IMO) no comparison between them and the US. Let alone the allies of each camp in the region and world as a whole.

USSR was basically Russia. The other former USSR republics were not worth much with the exception of Ukraine (the industrial Eastern Ukraine mind you).

Actually Russia is sanctioned currently.

The US is a democracy and has been that since it's birth almost 250 years ago. Russia has never been a democracy but has always been ruled by dictators. Whether Tsars, communist dictators or the current lot.

I don't think so. The Iranian government is much closer to the Russian camp. Don't let that nuclear deal fool you. Maybe that will change I don't know but it would be good for the region IMO. But I hardly care anyone as I am not even fully Middle Eastern and likely won't ever live in the ME again.

The only reason why I am somewhat against the Russian bombings is because they don't really target ISIS but some minor groups (mostly FSA) and because the Russians are hellbent on keeping the Al-Assad regime alive which is a main party in the conflict and IMO the main cause for the misery in Syria. All those parties need to be removed and Syria should start from a fresh. They should decide their future on their own but no sane person shall tell me that a person like Al-Assad (who has killed 200.000 people) is the right man to lead a likely ruined and very divided Syria in the future. As long as he stays in power the more gasoline you will throw on the fire and more extremists will emerge. To me it's like removing a few cancer cells while leaving dozens of others and then pretend that the cancer has been cured. No it has not!

Anyway mate, we can bark all we want on the internet at the end of the day we have no influence unless we reach positions of power.

Thanks for your post, you raised important points.

My own conclusion

-Russians are no pushover and are a major force on the world stage.
-Even though Assad is the better option (you may disagree) i also agree that he has blood on his hands - whole of Syria needs a fresh start with new faces. This war is going on for too long.

About the Mullah i still disagree with you, they are part of the American green belt for the region set up by Carter and his buddies. Politics are always calculated my friend, each statement, each action is calculated over and over again. To me the actions of Mullahs show that they are a American project in keeping the Iranian people dumb and backward with no progress on the horizon. Same with the other leaders and countries in the region.

ME never was for the people, sadly.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

Thanks for your post, you raised important points.

My own conclusion

-Russians are no pushover and are a major force on the world stage.
-Even though Assad is the better option (you may disagree) i also agree that he has blood on his hands - whole of Syria needs a fresh start with new faces. This war is going on for too long.

About the Mullah i still disagree with you, they are part of the American green belt for the region set up by Carter and his buddies. Politics are always calculated my friend, each statement, each action is calculated over and over again. To me the actions of Mullahs show that they are a American project in keeping the Iranian people dumb and backward with no progress on the horizon. Same with the other leaders and countries in the region.

ME never was for the people, sadly.

You are welcome.

As I wrote, we both agree with your first conclusion.

Believe it or not but I did not really have a problem with the Al-Assad regime before the conflict began in 2011. Granted he was/is no saint and Syria was a dictatorship like most if not all of the ME (with the exclusion of Israel although they are not a democracy comparable to those in the West for obvious reasons due to the situation of that part of the ME) but nevertheless he was quite harmless. I liked/like his policy that was aimed at increasing cooperation between the Arab countries. Whether this was genuine or not I don't know but at least I liked it.

What made me furious was the conduct of his regime and his numerous war crimes when his power was challenged by Syrian protestors all over Syria. People of all backgrounds, ethnicities, sects, political beliefs etc . I can't phantom how a Syrian could do such things to his fellow compatriots. I thought that Syrians were more united as a people and could deal with their differences in a more civil manner. I was wrong.

Also in general I have always been in favor of reforms in the ME region and the removal of all dictatorships so I can't support Al-Assad. I also think that it is hypocritical to cheer for Al-Assad when he bombs FSA (those people are not really fanatics at all let alone Islamists) while he himself uses religious fanatics (the Shia version) from all across the world. Few of those people (FSA) are even religious to begin with and don't let the beards or a few religious screams fool you. All people in the MENA region use religion when at war. It's just a self-defense mechanism. It's easy for us to talk about conflicts behind our computer screens.

I agree with ISIS being worse than Al-Assad. Not because ISIS has killed more people to date but just due to their ideology and the fact that nothing good will come out of them. EVER. At least Al-Assad is somewhat "progressive". As progressive as you can be as an dictator with so much blood on your hands but you get the point.

I don't really know about that and let the Iranians judge that as they know much more than me but all I can say is that Western support when it comes to GCC leaders also annoy me as the West does not push for reforms in the GCC or the Arab world as a whole to occur. It's only about interests and money nowadays. The average person who wants change suffers instead.

Unfortuantely I have to agree with you with your last sentence but don't forget that this was the case for as long in Europe until not long ago.

The fact is that the people of the ME/Muslim world/developing world need to grow a pair of balls and make sacrifices to improve their societies. They think that fundamental changes occur out of nowhere and without a fight. 60 million Europeans died between WW1 and WW2 fighting against or for tyranny (Nazism and Stalinism). Nothing came for free.

It's disappointing to see how many intelligent people in the ME are following their regimes blindly and miss the bigger picture.

Being an dictator in the ME must be the easiest thing in the world. The hardest part is reaching power. ME people are so predictable unfortunately.

 

[Malik Alashter]

This is stupid logic.

That's ain't stupid logic. You just don't calculate it rite Russians know well that they bomb people with no heavy or expensive hardware they are very mobile you can't use a missile that cost you 100k to kill few terrorists or destroy a pickup.

like Iraqis when they used the hell-fire to kill some rats while they should use dumb rockets like the 70mm or the 57mm

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

The difference between allied and russian airstrikes is the russians don't care about collateral damage.This gives them a psychological advantage that USA with its massive tech and numbers don't have.

 

[jamahir]

Insult to our intelligence: New information war against Russia — RT Op-Edge

superb writing.

 

[Falcon29]

you allrite, hazzy ?

you're right, it's never black and white, but it's gone on long enough, millions displaced, hundreds of thousand killed.. someone needs to get in there and smash the greater evil to bits, as a non religiously allied distant watcher, I'm going with the Russians on this one.

I understand there are many other legit stakeholders who see this very differently but my mind is made up, most of these Syrian "rebels" need to go, disarm and surrender, die from a barrel bomb or a Russian airstrike.

Well brother we aren't forced to choose. I would chose nobody, because it's money making/interest based game behind the scenes by all sides. We humans don't deserve justice and will never get it. But at least we can retain our own personal values.

 

[mike2000 is back]

View attachment 261869

This thread is meant as a reality check for every single member on this forum who continually propagates the view that Russian military intervention in Syria will decimate the ranks of the Free Syrian Army, The Islamic State, and Al-Qaeda affiliated militias. I will attempt to make it as simple and as brief as possible.

Will Russian operations turn the tide for Assad's embattled Syrian Arab Army?

No, Russian military intervention will not produce any clear winners nor will it give the Syrian Arab Army a significant edge on the battlefield across Syria.

Why?

It is simple. The assets that the Russians have currently deployed are not significant in number. At any one time the Russians will only be able to deploy around four not very sophisticated (beside perhaps the Su-34) aircraft.

In addition to that the Russians appear to be using a mix of precision guided munitions and free fall munitions. From footage released it appears that unguided munitions are used in the lion's share of sorties so far.

A reliance on unguided munitions will mean more collateral damage (civilian deaths) which may be politically and eventually militarily counter-productive (although this is another debate entirely).

More importantly, the use of unguided munitions will result in strike sorties against targets being less effective (as we have already seen) and will complicate close air support sorties.

Another major point is that the Russian operations in Syria are at the end of a very long supply and
logistics chain.

So at times it may not be surprising to find the forces stationed there to be under resourced and equipped.

To put this into perspective the entire Russian commitment based out of Latakia is far less capable than one US aircraft carrier.

It is of note that the entire Western Coalition has thus far been largely ineffective in trying to root out or degrade The Islamic State and Al-Qaeda affiliated militias in Syria from the air.

So what will Russian military intervention mean for the Syrian Arab Army?

It is unlikely to be a force multiplier due to its size and capabilities but it will however boost the morale of the Syrian Arab Army. Which is very important considering they have taken a substantial battering in this war of attrition.

What the Russian deployment does act as though is a trigger force. Meaning it may potentially disrupt direct intervention by outside powers in favour of the revolt against Assad by simply having a presence there.

So what is Russia's military 'mission' in Syria?

First and foremost they must stop rebel advances towards a Mediterranean port. Specifically, they will target Jaysh Alfath which was instrumental in the capture of Idlib and which has Latakia in it's sights.

It is only logical that the majority of their strikes will be in and around Latakia. They must secure their area of operations before they do anything else.

So far Russian strikes in that area have allowed them to grab the initiative but whether they can maintain momentum is questionable.

Their strikes in that area will likely continue until Idllib is retaken (if that ever actually happens) and may even continue beyond that.

Something to keep an eye out for though is potential Russian plans to base long rang air defence systems. This may complicate things for coalition forces if the Russians plan to enforce an 'area denial' policy over the Eastern Mediterranean.

So what about Russian operations against The Islamic State?

Russian air strikes have so far focused on FSA and Al-Qaeda affiliated militias.

Many of which have connections to the United States and a tripartite of Gulf nations. This may be a reason why Russia has deployed air to air fighters alongside its contingent of bombers.

Strikes against the Islamic State so far appear to be symbolic.

Required in order to further propagate Russian propaganda at home/abroad and allow a certain amount of political manoeuvring.

In order to effectively tackle The Islamic State Assad needs to secure his immediate neighbourhood which is in the West of the country. The Islamic State is concentrated within the East. In between there's a lot of empty land and Syrian rebels.

In order to move against The Islamic State Assad needs to regain the Syrian heartland stopping the war there and replacing it with an area that requires policing rather than war fighting.

The above will not be easy and Russian military involvement will not help that much.

Will Russia be successful?

At this point in time it's difficult to answer this question but a look into Russia's past may give us a glimpse.

The Soviet Union was particularly successful in the Cold War across South East Asia and Central/South America. It was capable of frustrating the United States by wining proxy wars.

However, once they deployed Soviet boots in Afghanistan their success was rapidly shunted.

Will this be another repeat of Afghanistan or a successful proxy war? I don't know.

What I do know is that this intervention will further muddle an already confusing war and one which there will be no clear winner and only one victim, the Syrian people.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Short and sweet. Will add things I missed to this.

One of the best of the best analysis i jabe seen on this crisis. Bravo mon ami.
Dont mind the so called German Chinese member @Beidou2020, he is a very radical and emotional in his views about China and what he views as Chinas 'friends'. I dont know what his Chinese wife did to him for him to be reacting so emotionally/radically on all his comments. Lol Even some REAL native Chinese members here themselves have been distancing themselves from him recently like @Chinese-Dragon et al.

Anyway keep up with your good work, i enjoy your analysis, seems you understand the great game being played here and you seem to be neutral, unlike others members here.

 

[Falcon29]

Thanks for your post, you raised important points.

My own conclusion

-Russians are no pushover and are a major force on the world stage.
-Even though Assad is the better option (you may disagree) i also agree that he has blood on his hands - whole of Syria needs a fresh start with new faces. This war is going on for too long.

About the Mullah i still disagree with you, they are part of the American green belt for the region set up by Carter and his buddies. Politics are always calculated my friend, each statement, each action is calculated over and over again. To me the actions of Mullahs show that they are a American project in keeping the Iranian people dumb and backward with no progress on the horizon. Same with the other leaders and countries in the region.

ME never was for the people, sadly.

Stop blaming America, America studies history well and they are trying to lift you out of the religious corrupt hellhole Muslims are in. But for some reason you keep choosing the same old ideas. Americans are Europeans, Europeans had same experience as you and and eventually had secular revolution. They used to think in the same way Muslims do, but eventually their scientists and philosophers and creative thinkers all agreed that religion is man made and new system is needed. So no, it's no secret 'American' plan, you make it sound as if American policymakers are launching religious war on Muslims, no they aren't. They're just shocked at how dumb you people clinging to old ideas are when they are introducing and willing to assist you in superior platform for the society. And the people who keep clinging to old ideas tout that as 'holy victory' and that 'Islam is indeed the true religion'. You live in America yet call Iranian leadership 'American project'....c'mon man.

 

[Rukarl]

Stop blaming America, America studies history well and they are trying to lift you out of the religious corrupt hellhole Muslims are in. But for some reason you keep choosing the same old ideas. Americans are Europeans, Europeans had same experience as you and and eventually had secular revolution. They used to think in the same way Muslims do, but eventually their scientists and philosophers and creative thinkers all agreed that religion is man made and new system is needed. So no, it's no secret 'American' plan, you make it sound as if American policymakers are launching religious war on Muslims, no they aren't. They're just shocked at how dumb you people clinging to old ideas are when they are introducing and willing to assist you in superior platform for the society. And the people who keep clinging to old ideas tout that as 'holy victory' and that 'Islam is indeed the true religion'. You live in America yet call Iranian leadership 'American project'....c'mon man.

I am in no mood for a lengthy discussion but i tell you that if the Americans wanted the Mullahs would dissapear.

From the American backed knife-wielding thugs in Tehran in 1953 promoting violence in order to undermine Mossadegh to Carters green belt plan. It is all obvious.

I guess you are not familiar with Iranian politics.

 

[fallstuff]

Interesting developments, wish I had the time to be glued to news outlets, sigh !!

 

[Beidou2020]

One of the best of the best analysis i jabe seen on this crisis. Bravo mon ami.
Dont mind the so called German Chinese member @Beidou2020, he is a very radical and emotional in his views about China and what he views as Chinas 'friends'. I dont know what his Chinese wife did to him for him to be reacting so emotionally/radically on all his comments. Lol Even some REAL native Chinese members here themselves have been distancing themselves from him recently like @Chinese-Dragon et al.

Anyway keep up with your good work, i enjoy your analysis, seems you understand the great game being played here and you seem to be neutral, unlike others members here.

You consider a bunch of straw-man arguments as 'best analysis'?

 

[opruh]

Thread opened by a delusional isis supporter Good thing Russia and Assad will send isis and their supporters straight to hell.

 

[cirr]

Bomb the crap out of US-sponsored terrorist scums。

These guys deserve death by a thousand cuts。

Go Russia！

 

[dy1022]

Please killing more Uygur terros in Syria!