Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[The SC]

How many operational SU-57 do the russian air force really have? Last I heard the number was 3.. Claiming they are using SU-57 is just a marketing gimmick.

They had 5 serial ones in 2022 ..and 10 for testing..

This one was the first in the serial production..

76 on order..

 

[ckf]

Europe does stop. Oil embargo comes soon, gas is phased ou

Second Iraq War?

Did the US really achieve anything substantial, other than removing Saddam and destroying the whole country.

While it was distracted in Iraq, China grabbed the opportunity to become a peer competitor, without waging any wars. That is the true Art Of War. To Win without fighting.

Wars are inflationary, as we are observing today in Ukraine. To prop up Iraq/afghanistan wars, US had to depress interest rates to finance defense spending, which lead to 2008 financial crisis as housing bubble burst. The justification of lower interest rate of course was allowing China to completely dominate global supply chain and Ameican retail factories offshored, which is exactly the predicament America faces today. China has 28.7 % of global industrial output vs 16.8 % of US. US debt to gdp soared to 133.6% of GDP, over 30 trillion. If US loses hi tech race in the future, a repricing of global fiat currency will see US become another Banana Republic.

 

[StraightEdge]

Putin May Just Be Winning the Information War | Time

While 141 countries in the UN voted to condemn Russia’s aggression, the number of African, Middle Eastern and South American countries who have imposed sanctions on Russia is 0.

Last week, President Joe Biden hosted a summit with eight nations of the Association of Southeast Asian nations, and pressured them to criticize Russia. Their response: silence.

 

[Wergeland]

China rise is not the same time as US being distracted in Iraq. In fact, war of Iraq cemented US as world number 1 Oil Production country, along with the dominance of USD, this development will mean the US have more grip in the world.

China, on the other hand, is not a competitor with US, have you ever imagine why China have second most GDP in the world yet only less than 3% hold on world currency? Not to mention China oil production is virtually non-existence, how do you compete with the US when US dictate world petroleum trade and currency trade?

Disgree

China wasnt seen as a real threat back in those days. No one, probably not even most Chinese, could foresee how methodically clever the CPC has been steering the countries economy and innovation to the position where it is now. That is probably the main reason why China was not in the spotlight.

Of course US magnates earned tonnes of money with their factories in China, while the average american worker salaries has been on a standstill. Proven by the elephant curve i posted earlier in this thread. By moving factories to China the US and rest of the West transferred the industrial «knowledge», effectively helping it becoming the juggernaut of today. It was a trade off, China made cheap product and raised the material wealth of the West, in turn it got Industrialization and knowledge transfer, which created a massive middle class.

China today is not only a competitor, but in many ways has checkmated the US. The reason why Yuan is only a minor reserve currency and trade currency is because Peoples Bank want it to be that way. China wins by not letting its currency float freely, as it is pegged to the US dollar. Thus the CNY/USD exchange rate is manipulated, to make Chinese product price competitive.

Chinas economy is probably twice the size of Americas, or at least 50% larger. If Yuan was set free today, the exchange rate with USD would significantly strengthen in CNY favour in matter of months. Automatically making the GDP Nominal way larger.

With the US outsourcing, which is a fancy word for de-industrializing, the US capabilities has been compromized in many ways. There are many industries which will never come back, even if the US want to try revive them. Covid-19 showed how vulnerable the US is to steady delivery of goods from China. That is the real power of China. It dosent have to fire any bullets.

USA became the global powerhouse it is known as today on the back of its industrial might, which by now is mostly gone.
USA still has technological edge in IT and Millitary industry though, for now. But for how long?

 

[sammuel]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527949904492085248

Yemen's don't have planes.

~

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528046054150754307

LMAO

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528046140847198210

 

[jhungary]

Disgree

China wasnt seen as a real threat back in those days. No one, probably not even most Chinese, could foresee how methodically clever the CPC has been steering the countries economy and innovation to the position where it is now. That is probably the main reason why China was not in the spotlight.

Of course US magnates earned tonnes of money with their factories in China. Proven by the elephant curve i posted earlier in this thread. By moving factories to China the US and rest of the West transferred the industrial «knowledge», effectively helping it becoming the juggernaut of today. It was a trade off, China made cheap product and raised the material wealth of the West, in turn it got Industrialization and knowledge transfer, which created a massive middle class.

China today is not only a conpetitor, but in many ways has checkmated the US. The reason why Yuan is only a minor reserve currency and trade currency is because Peoples Bank want it to be that way. China wins by not letting its currency float freely, as it is pegged to the US dollar. Thus the CNY/USD exchange rate is manipulated, to make Chinese product price competitive.

Chinas economy is probably twice the size of Americas, or at least 50% larger. If Yuan was set free today, the exchange rate with USD would significantly strengthen in CNY favour in matter of months. Automatically making the GDP Nominal way larger.

With the US outsourcing, which is a fancy word for de-industrializing, the US capabilities has been compromized in many ways. There are many industries which will never come back, even if the US want to try revive them. Covid-19 showed how vulnerable the US is to steady delivery of goods from China. That is the real power of China. It dosent have to fire any bullets.

USA became the global powerhouse it is known as today on the back of its industrial might, which by now is mostly gone.
USA still has technological edge in IT and Millitary industry though, for now. But for how long?

First of all, have money is not the same as powerful.

And US went thru the same period what China went thru, that is not how US got its power from. In a traditional sense, money does not buy you both hard and soft power. US did not become the global powerhouse on the back of its industrial might, US dominate the world by the financial might, which specifically, modelled the global economy around USD. That is the might of the US. A real War can be fought with money, not bullet, and that's only US can do at this moment. Not a single country can pull this off

Problem for China is that they can be rich, but they don't know how the power game play, China right now is a richer form of Russia, and Russia in turn is a richer form of North Korea. That DOES NOT buy you power. Nor make you a competitor of any kind. Because power is both lead and command, China do not have either.

Again, take my previous example, why China is second biggest GDP in the world yet Yuan is only 3% of world currency? If money is power, then I can say this example can show you China didn't even get that. You cannot dominate currency market if you do not let it float freely, rather if Yuan is float freely, their price will be slaughtered, because a simple fact is no one are going to trade a currency that is going to be heavily controlled by the government, and if that happen, Chinese business base will suffer.

So, what's left? The massive population and its manufacturer base. Manufacturer base can be relocate, US and the world had learn a lesson, they are migrating their supply base back in the US and Europe. On the other hand, COVID 19 also show the weakness of Chinese economy, less than 3 months of shut down and Chinese economy tanked 0.2%, it may not seems a lot, and it's GDP has gone down to 4.8, half of what pre-COVID level. Factory shut down do more harm to the Chinese than to their buyer (US, EU and so on). And the massive population can be a double edge sword, it's all fine and dandy when the country is making money and everyone is happy, what if the money stop coming and people are unhappy??

China is similar to what we think about Japan in the 80s. It's a global factory where many thing were made in Japan back then. Japan is rich, probably as rich as the US if not richer, but does that mean power? I mean today, if I can't get stuff made in China, it is not the end of the world, I can simply pay 10-15% more and get the same stuff that made in Japan, Korea or in Europe.

By the way, CYN/USD is not pegged, HKD/USD is pegged. And I had explained the reason why in this post.

 

[vishwambhar]

Ukraine has by now lost almost 80% of it's coast line to Russia which is a very bad news for them.... They are into a risk of loosing entire coast line to Russia and become a landlocked country..... Sea access is an opening for any maritime country to a globe..... You loose sea access you loose as a nation....

 

[MeFishToo]

Ukraine has by now lost almost 80% of it's coast line to Russia which is a very bad news for them.... They are into a risk of loosing entire coast line to Russia and become a landlocked country..... Sea access is an opening for any maritime country to a globe..... You loose sea access you loose as a nation....

I think Ukraine made a huge mistake not preparing to block, defend or destroy the bridges near Kherson. Its only like 3 bridges crossing Dnepr in the entire southern part of Ukraine. I guess the southern part of Ukraine simply wasnt prepared for an attack.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528073105859543041

 

[Wergeland]

First of all, have money is not the same as powerful.

Never said that.

US did not become the global powerhouse on the back of its industrial might, US dominate the world by the financial might, which specifically, modelled the global economy around USD.

Tomato Tomato… same same

US became dominant world power on the back of victory in WW2, where it safely could churn out massive war machinery, because it had the industrial power to do so. Rest of the world was in ruin. So the world was there to be taken, militarily then financially, with only the Soviet acting as a somewhat millitary counterweight. But Soviet never was a industrial or economic superpower the way China is.

Problem for China is that they can be rich, but they don't know how the power game play, China right now is a richer form of Russia, and Russia in turn is a richer form of North Korea. That DOES NOT buy you power. Nor make you a competitor of any kind. Because power is both lead and command, China do not have either.

China is very different from Russia and North Korea, both economically and industrial. China dosent rely on setting boots on the ground and historically hasnt been a nation that force its ideology on other nations. So it dosent have to fight constant war, or export its societal model in order to influence other nations. This goes way back to the time of Silk Roads.

You cannot dominate currency market if you do not let it float freely, rather if Yuan is float freely, their price will be slaughtered, because a simple fact is no one are going to trade a currency that is going to be heavily controlled by the government, and if that happen, Chinese business base will suffer.

By contrast its the Peoples Bank that keeps USD value higher vis avis CNY, by buying and taking USD out from the market.

So, what's left? The massive population and its manufacturer base. Manufacturer base can be relocate, US and the world had learn a lesson, they are migrating their supply base back in the US and Europe.

They are not gonna relocate to Europe or America. Maybe relocate to other developing nations like India, but then again you just create a counterwight to China, creating another powerhouse, which in the end will trade with China, both will become more powerful than today, hastening Multipolarity. That is exactly what i meant with Checkmated. In order for US to have allies and influence in Asia, it has to create big counterweights to China. Asian nations are reluctant to forge any millitary alliance against China and you end up with actually diluting US relative power.

On the other hand, COVID 19 also show the weakness of Chinese economy, less than 3 months of shut down and Chinese economy tanked 0.2%, it may not seems a lot, and it's GDP has gone down to 4.8, half of what pre-COVID level. Factory shut down do more harm to the Chinese than to their buyer (US, EU and so on).

And the US economy contracted waaay more. China didnt grow, yes, but calling 0,2% growth for tanked is a exaggeration, compared to the conditions in the rest of the world. OTOH China already has a massive base where 4-5% growth is good enough to add trillions every year.

China population growth is very slow these days, creating some labor shortages in certain sectors. So they themselves are gonna start outsourcing labor intensive industries (Guess to where!?). Compared to 15 years ago, the service sector makes up a much bigger cake of total GDP, i believe its close to 60% of GDP. Making it less vulnerable to export as it used to be. There is also a emerging market next door in Asia, and big markets in Latin America, Africa that also demand cheap goods.

China is similar to what we think about Japan in the 80s. It's a global factory where many thing were made in Japan back then. Japan is rich, probably as rich as the US if not richer, but does that mean power? I mean today, if I can't get stuff made in China, it is not the end of the world, I can simply pay 10-15% more and get the same stuff that made in Japan, Korea or in Europe.

Comparison with Japan makes little sense.
Japan is geographically small land of 120 million people, and in many ways a US protectorate with little to say in major defence and foreign policy matters. Thats why Japan was forced to accept Plaza Accord, which broke its back and has stagnated its economy. US could do that because Japan militarily was not a match. China can confidently defi any such agreement by sheer size of its economy, population and millitary power. Trump tried, but lost. Not a shocker.

More worrying for the west, China is actually becoming a very inventive country, by registering millions of patents each year. In many fields they are way ahead, like forexample drones. In high tech they are catching up fast and in some areas ahead of western tech (ref. US congress report). So again, they are not only depedent on selling cheap goods. This trend will only accelerate.
Good luck with getting Made in China products for mere 10-15% higher cost but produced in Europe. That wont happen with the wages here. To not talk about the profit margins. No business owner will move factories to higher cost nation and make less profit, just for sake of patriotism. It would kill many companies.

 

[Viet]

Ukraine has by now lost almost 80% of it's coast line to Russia which is a very bad news for them.... They are into a risk of loosing entire coast line to Russia and become a landlocked country..... Sea access is an opening for any maritime country to a globe..... You loose sea access you loose as a nation....

That’s nonsense. This war will continue for 10-20 years. Ukraine is almost twice the size of Germany. Russia must have a million men army to control it. The army Putin doesn’t have.

 

[vishwambhar]

That’s nonsense. This war will continue for 10-20 years. Ukraine is almost twice the size of Germany. Russia must have a million men army to control it. The army Putin doesn’t have.

Even if this war continues for 10-20 years till then Ukraine will be almost 80% without coast line.... That's a tragedy....

 

[F-22Raptor]

Even if this war continues for 10-20 years till then Ukraine will be almost 80% without coast line.... That's a tragedy....

We’ll see how long Russia can control the coast once Ukraine begins receiving 250-300km Harpoon and NSM missiles.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528079519592157186

All those Russians riding on the back of that APC are now dead