Hassan Al-Somal
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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments
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The SC
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Have you ever heard of " chemical Ali "..
The US couldn't have chosen to contain China.. that's contradictory to its economic policies at that time.. when its own giant companies were manufacturing their goods in China..!
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Wergeland
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Official stories are nice but too bad we wont know 100% what Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld were thinking.
I believe the USA simply got outfoxed by China.
Energy isnt sanctioned. Demanding payment in rubles insted of euro or dollars agreed upon is a breach of contract. My contrys contract with Russia expires in 2030, and it would be costly for the company controlling gas deliveries if they simply refused to accept russian gas. If Russia is breaching the contract the problem is solved.
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The SC
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We know for sure that they need war every 10-20 years.. and they plan and create conditions for it in a long term scheme..
The USA simply got outfoxed by China..yes now a days.. but then the West was seeing China as a manufacturing hub that made them trillions of dollars in profit and a potential huge market for their products as it proved to be after enhancing the quality of living of the Chinese people.. but China was smart to diversify its market and spread it globally..So not to depend on the West only..
Nuclear Clown
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Sorry if your brain can't deal with more than Twitter-format for your military analysis... You shouldn't consider posting on forums if not fit for more reflectiveness. Sorry if you're accustomed to Schwarzy's or Bruce Willis' action movies where the script is only made of one-liners, if you were accustomed to read a little more or to watch movies a little more sophisticated, you'd get why many use words like Mordor about Russia, Isengard about Belarus and Orcs about Putin's forces
Keep your orders for yourself, I'm not hired by ex-Con Yevgeny Prigozhin for 85 rubbles per pro-Putler comment. Usually, I bypass your comments and don't look at your links: they're not interesting at all. I'd feel honoured if you do the same. Is there some mute button here?
The problem is that... Just look at Finland : they refuse to pay in Rubles, and so will it be for [near] everybody... You don't seem to get that EU weighs more than 50% of ruSSia's exports and ruSSian economy is about the same size as South Korea, not even on par with Brazil, Italy, Canada.
It's not by selling oil and gas at bargain prices that ruSSia will compensate the loss of an EU market that can absolutely do without even if it causes some conjectural issues : new generation of Siemens turbines allow to boost a NPP production by 80%, Putin knows it, he bought 3 turbines to compensate when Ukraine stopped to supply electricity to Mordor-occupied Crimea/Donbass/Luhansk... We can resume the building of fast breeders like Supeerphénix, thus burning nuke wastes from other NPPs while such fast breeder generates more fuel than it burns
We also have gigantic shale gas basins in need of be truly exploited, especially the French one which is under moratorium due to ecologists lobbying. Even the Germans are no more into exiting nuclear energy. With the French fast-breeder technology, nuclear becomes a renewable energy, and with the Siemens turbines, nuclear energy becomes near half as cheap, BTW, these turbines are the standard for EDF's EPR-2 4th gen NPPs... Why d'you think we've just stopped half our reactors, now the temperature on the outside is, for 2 weeks, between 25 and 34 °C? Gosh, it's already the summer, more than 1 month early... We're mounting new Siemens turbines!!!!
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) had been reduced due to overproduction? Well, time to return to the pre-reduction policy... In fact, thanks to Putler, the EU will simply do just like the USA : gain its energy independence and with the old-school CAP resumed with Ukraine entering the EU as soon the war ends, and, IMHO, with the huge financial help and the mass deliveries of weapons, ruSSian losses in personnel and equipment will become unsustainable : they've already lost 1650 tanks on 2800, they're pulling old rusted Soviet crap out of the reserve...
EU is not the sacrificial lamb, the change of mentality we needed happened thanks to Putler, the EU even bought weapons for the 1st time, a new superpower is born
Actually, it's their personnel that is filled with vodka/hydrazine mixture... And no, hell, no, you don't fill a ballistic missile or a space rocket with LIQUID fuel except just before the launch... It's different with things like Topol or Yars which use solid fuel and are as well as in silos or TEL-mounted... Seriously, you should document yourself about the result of launch failures with liquid-fuel powered rockets, ruSSia has broken several records like the most lethal launchpad accident and the biggest launchpad explosion with near 7 kilotons. Note that the N1 space rocked would had been great, the problem was Soviet/ruSSian quality control : you can absolutely trust a Soyuz rocket when launched by Arianespace or NASA, I wouldn't bet my life on it if the operator is Roscosmos
Not forcedly! Numerous aircraft can operate from roads!
Some are well known to be able to operate even from small roads and are absolutely seen as STOL (short take-off/landing) : a Rafale takes off in 400m and lands into 450m, Gripen, Viggen : 500m, Mirage-2000, F-18, Typhoon : 600m. MiG-29 is well known to do so too :
Good luck to catch a Rafale on the ground : it's able to fly for more than 12 hours a day if intensive use is needed. During the 2011 Libyan campaign, the 9 Rafale-M deployed on the DeGaulle CVN, were catapulted 100x per 24h !!!! You're lucky if your Flanker can perform 3 missions per 24h, 4 is considered intensive use for a F-18... F-35 or F-22 need 28h maintenance... per flight hour, thanks to the new outstanding Lockheed-Martin coating, previous one needed 32 hours... Since they also need special hangars, yup, those betting on F-35 only are Putin their security in serious jeopardy
The problem is not so instant destruction when you imply the use of nukes: this is only valuable in case of air-bursts enough away from the ground so it's not touched by the fireball... The main issue is that anything taken into the fireball is not just vaporized, it's elements are neutron-activated = they become radioactive, go airborne with the mushroom and will spread more or less far depending on the wind. FYI, a 1 megaton surface blast will do half the damages and immediate casualties of an airburst, but your fallout plume will cover an area of about 20,000-30,000km² depending on winds, with no less than 1 rad/h, even at 0.1 rad/h, the area (which is about the double of the min. 1rad/h area) has to be evacuated ASAP and you need to wear an HazMat to avoid contamination. At 1 rad/h, consider you'd better leave the area within 12h, wearing a HazMat Type C and not drinking/eating/breathing anything non protected from contamination: radioactive particles in your lungs or bowels are not nice at all!!! The nice point with the Type C is it's also OK against things like Ebola, the Chinese virus that is pissing us all off for 2 years, H5N1, etc too, but in case of CWs like VX, Sarin, you need a Type B. Type A offers double protection
1 rad/h means that within 3 hours, you've already taken 3 REMs just by exposure, this is the yearly maximum allowed to nuclear workers! Within 50h, the headache of doom starts, at 100h, you start to puke and defecate, at 200h you deserve a "Z" t-shirt 'coz you're a Putler's Zombie, at 400h, you've reached the half lethal dose, this means that with blood change every 4 hours and anti-rad drugs, 50% survive, at 500 REMs, the lethality must be around 90-95% with treatment... And this is without contamination which implies that you shall not breath, eat or drink anything found in the open...
This implies that 500x 1Mt warheads in surface burst will pollute 10-15 millions km² with at least 1 rad/h, best case scenario, and with a looser spread, you can double the size if you consider that, anyway, à 0.1 rad/h, the area is TARFU for no less than a few centuries, likely a few dozens centuries...
So, yup, no fuss, Putler can absolutely make EU/NATO FUBAR, But... M.A.D is no BS (the Licorne 1 Mt test in Mururoa is still the most beautifu, ain't it?)
So...
France alone can cover no less than 3.5-4 millions km² at 1 rad/h level and the double at 0.1 rad/h, and this is without counting what can be pulled out from cocoon storage and is surely deployed in the subsonic stealth cruise missiles like MdCN or SCALP-EG, and since 2020, all the ballistic missiles are stealth, even against UHF radars. As you pointed, ruSSia is super-centralized, moreover, a bit like Canada, most of the country is close to population zero... You don't need the US arsenal to demolish ruSSia, the French one is enough. The only things I can tell, are that the 4 French SSBNs are at sea now, while usually, there is one in maintenance and one with the crew resting... Then, AFAIK, the AF and Navy squadrons in charge of the ASMPA-Rs are not on their bases, and they're not the only ones: airbases are near empty and I hear unusual numbers of jet fighters overflights, near all the navy is at sea... Nothing is said publicly but Macron is doing a low profile,
IMHO, we're in smth similar to DEFCON 1
You know, in the last 200-250 years, all wars were fought about economics, except the Arab ones on Israel : these were fought upon racism. Any other reasons pushed are just propaganda. Hitler invaded for the same reasons Erdogan does proxy wars : both being morons, they took loans the country can't cash in order to push megalomaniac projects but, even if you have fast growth, you'd better consider it won't last forever, in some way, China is at VERY HIGH RISK of going rogue : they have 300%+ of the GDP as deficit, and unlike USA or EU, no negative interest rates which are due to the fact the economies are healthy. Having 100% as deficit is OK as the money you lease is included, e.g. USA or EU pay less interests on their debt that they perceive interests on the money they lease, in fact, EU even has strict rules: no more than 3% "in the red". Greece was over 3%, measures were imposed to sanitize the economy while, at the same time, EU bought the Greek debt and put it in a negative interest fund... Actually, when some accuse USA of printing Dollars, they don't get how it works, it's actually PRC which is printing Yuans, causing the global inflation, the point is that, just like Adolf or Gollum, they have over-invested, and their military build up is an obvious sign that they consider the military option to get out from the debt spiral...
Frankly, was I Tsai, Fumio or Yoon, I'd nuclearize, even if Washington doesn't agrees, and I'd probably consider measures that may not fit to international treaties as a temporary measure until a nuclear deterrent can be fielded.
Indonesia, the Philippines and some other in the region should better opt for way more seriously invest in military gear, you know, the minimum necessary to shoot down all PLAAF combat aircraft while sinking PLAN ships at the same time is just 8 Rafale squadrons (if you're allowed to get the conventional version of ASMPA-R as an anti-ship missile): many don't get how this asset is powerful : the concept was all about being able to screw the... 12,000 combat aircraft of the Warsaw pact while only owning 330 Rafales: by using pylons similar to what you see under F-15EX's wings but with the provision to carry a TER for 3 AAMs, there is enough payload for up to 39 Meteors and 9 MICA-NG at once, not even speaking about the 100kN non afterburner version of the M88 Safran has shown to the public: payload is extended to 12 tons, while, with a fast interception payload, it'd just allow Mach2+ in supercruise. Dassault got rid from the only point not allowing a sustained Mach2 with the twin 75kN engines, the Kevlar nose. With the F4 standard, the same 3rd gen stealth used with the M51.3 is applied, making it invisible even for UHF radars, meanwhile, we surely can provide the NOSTRADAMUS to these countries OTHR...Shenyang had to return the J-31 to the same kind of stealth coating used for J-20, seems they neither can come with baked-in radar absorbent materials used on Rafale, Gripen-E and likely Tejas too, as well as they don't even have 2ng gen stealth (active cancellation), moreover, OSF-IT is not an IRST, it's a 2nd gen QWIP, the 3rd gen will only come with the F4.2 upgrade. No issues as locking on a J-20 from an insane distance none of its sensors can reach...
NOSTRADAMUS can spot a B-2 from 3000km with a 5km accuracy, it's more than enough to guide SAMs with an IR/EO seeker
In fact, they should definitively put up an Asian "NATO" implying USA, JP, SoKo, the ASEAN and India: PRC seems a big economy, but they're freaking indebted, and uncle Xi probably believes that USA is kept afloat by military power which is absolutely wrong, moreover, PRC has territorial disputes with 23 countries and, when you are into building multiple aircraft carriers and LHDs, it's not in a defensive purpose, it's because you want power projection, and there are 23 countries that have legitimate reasons to worry, their recent attack, using medieval weapons against unarmed Indian border guards (there was an agreement that both countries border-guards shouldn't carry firearms in order to avoid border skirmishes!!!) or the Bhutan stand-off show a bellicose state of mind. Asian nations need a containment/deterrent capability or else,..
jhungary
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China rise is not the same time as US being distracted in Iraq. In fact, war of Iraq cemented US as world number 1 Oil Production country, along with the dominance of USD, this development will mean the US have more grip in the world.
China, on the other hand, is not a competitor with US, have you ever imagine why China have second most GDP in the world yet only less than 3% hold on world currency? Not to mention China oil production is virtually non-existence, how do you compete with the US when US dictate world petroleum trade and currency trade?
How many operational SU-57 do the russian air force really have? Last I heard the number was 3.. Claiming they are using SU-57 is just a marketing gimmick.
Viet
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Until now the war in Ukraine costs Russia 27,000 men. Far exceeding the casualties in Afghanistan with 15,000 men.
Those men were very young between 21-23 year old. Most of them came from poor families in underdeveloped regions in Russia.
amp.tagesspiegel.de
Foto: REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov
17.05.2022 | 17:05 Uhr
Those men were very young between 21-23 year old. Most of them came from poor families in underdeveloped regions in Russia.
Viele waren jung und arm: Erste Erkenntnisse zur Herkunft getöteter russischer Soldaten im Ukraine-Krieg
Wer sind die Soldaten, die für Russland im Krieg gegen die Ukraine sterben? Offenbar sind viele der Männer jung, arm und gehören einer Minderheit an.
amp.tagesspiegel.de
Foto: REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov
17.05.2022 | 17:05 Uhr
I wonder why Russia is so obsessed with foreigners fighting alongside the ukrainians. Every russian soldier in this war is by definition a foreigner in Ukraine.
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