Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Proposal: What’s in It, What Does Putin Want, Will China Play a Role,

[AbdulQadir7]

A ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war seems to be getting closer, with Ukraine agreeing to a 30-day stop in fighting. But that is ultimately up to Russia. The United States is advocating for an unconditional ceasefire, but Putin's response is unclear.

“I think you’re going to have a ceasefire,” former U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, adding American negotiators were going to Moscow. “Right now, as we speak, people are traveling to Russia. And if we can, we’ll get a ceasefire from Russia,” Trump said at an Oval Office meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin.

Trump’s envoy to this conflict, Steve Witkoff, who previously negotiated in both the Ukraine and Gaza flash points, is scheduled to be in Moscow this week, according to reports. U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz also spoke with his Russian counterpart.

What Is in the Proposed Cease-Fire Deal?​

Under a major deal brokered at a prodigious meeting in Saudi Arabia, U.S. and Ukrainian officials agreed on a plan for a 30-day ceasefire in the region. The third year of war has produced staggering destruction and a heavy toll in lives since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to the ceasefire proposal, but the plan would only move forward if Putin goes along with it.

On March 11, a joint U.S.-Ukraine statement read:

“Ukraine is ready to consider the offer of the United States to agree on an immediate, provisional 30-day ceasefire, extendable with the consent of the parties, subject to acceptance and simultaneous implementation on the part of the Russian Federation.”

The Restoration of U.S. Military Support for Ukraine​

The U.S. said it would immediately lift its pause on intelligence-sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine. Since the war began, Washington has sent more than $180 billion worth of military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Yakilov said the new agreement on ceasefires indicates continued military assistance to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to maintain its defense.

Exchange of Prisoners of War​

The terms of the ceasefire involved both sides agreeing to make humanitarian relief efforts, including the exchange of prisoners of war, their first priority during the negotiated peaceful cessation of hostilities.

The statement also underscored the need for:

• Releasing civilian detainees.
• Repatriated Ukrainian children forcibly relocated.
• Distributing humanitarian aid to civilians displaced by war.
• U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Deal

A notable aspect of the agreement is a deal between Ukraine and the U.S. on mineral resources. The prospective deal would also open U.S. access to Ukraine’s immense natural resources, including rare earth minerals used in technology and defense manufacturers.

Trump argued that this deal was necessary in order to pay the U.S. back for its significant financial support of Ukraine.

The joint statement read:

“The presidents of both countries agreed to finish a comprehensive agreement on the development of critical minerals of Ukraine to help grow its economy and ensure long-term prosperity and security.”

The U.S. has said it is prepared to hold those discussions with Russia, while Ukraine has called for Europe to be involved in any peace negotiations.

What Does Russia Want?​

According to reports, Russia has given Washington a set of demands it would require in order to agree to end the war. It’s unclear the precise terms, but sources say they mirror Russian conditions in the past, namely:

• Ukraine not to join NATO: Russia has insisted that Ukraine remain a neutral country and not to join NATO.
• Recognition of Russian claims: Moscow insists that Ukraine and the West recognize the Kremlin’s control over Crimea and four other regions of Ukraine.
• No foreign troops in Ukraine Russia seeks guarantees that Western or NATO military forces will not be stationed in Ukraine.

Moscow has said it will consider Washington’s cease-fire proposal before responding formally. But previous negotiations indicate that a ceasefire is unlikely to come without considerable concessions from Putin.

Will China Have a Role in the Peace Process?​

Whether Russia will agree to a ceasefire may hinge on China’s position. Eitvydas Bajarūnas, a Visiting Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and former Lithuanian Ambassador to Russia, cited China’s growing interest in the matter.

“Although the ceasefire doesn’t yet bring Putin’s long-term goal of controlling all of Ukraine, Russia’s sputtering economy and military exhaustion might make a short break beneficial for the Kremlin. As anyone probably will point out, a critical outside factor will be China. “Should Beijing back a ceasefire arrangement it might push Russia to conform,” Bajarūnas said.

China has kept a strategic partnership with Russia but has urged peace talks. If Beijing leans on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, then the prospect of negotiations advancing is that much greater.

What Russia Has Accomplished in Its War So Far​

The war is now in its third year, with Russia securing substantial territorial gains. Russia currently holds about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.

These are the countries that, despite facing sanctions and military defeats, Russia has managed to push through. Putin has ruled out any territorial concessions, demanding Ukraine withdraw from the four regions that Russia has claimed. This is a big obstacle in the peace process.

Conclusion: When Will There Be a Ceasefire?​

The cease-fire would halt fighting but only temporarily, and only if Putin agrees. Though Ukraine and the U.S. share similar objectives, Russia’s demands for NATO limitations and territorial recognition may be obstacles to a resolution.

China’s leverage could be decisive, but for now it’s wait-and-see as the world wonders whether Moscow will accede to the conditions or seek to negotiate further.