Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528094174121234432

 

[MeFishToo]

We’ll see how long Russia can control the coast once Ukraine begins receiving 250-300km Harpoon and NSM missiles.

Harpoon coastal defence
Denmark decommissioned the Harpoon coastal defence system years ago. Knowing Denmark, they are probably stored somewhere all forgotten. I noticed land based launcher platforms are limited. Maybe Ukraine are going to recieve those.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528093085086978049

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528093090380120064

Ukraine believes the Russian Army will collapse in August. Now Russian sources seem to confirm that.

 

[jhungary]

Never said that.

Well, I am saying it

Tomato Tomato… same same

US became dominant world power on the back of victory in WW2, where it safely could churn out massive war machinery, because it had the industrial power to do so. Rest of the world was in ruin. So the world was there to be taken, with only the Soviet acting as a somewhat millitary counterweight. But Soviet never was a industrial or economic superpower the way China is.'

Well, usually if someone said "Same Same" it's not,...

The reason why US is dominant after WW2 is because of the money US lent to Europe to reconstruction, which lead to Europe adopt a US debt system, which leads to USD become the world currency reserve and Bretton Woods system being abolished and de-pegged with Gold.

This have nothing to do with Military. We are talking about post war, US had not expanded their territories since 1840s after we took Texas and California off Mexico.

And I would not say China is a "Economic Superpower" again, being Rich and being powerful are two different concept,

China is very different from Russia and North Korea, both economically and industrial. China dosent rely on setting boots on the ground and historically hasnt been a nation that force its ideology on other nations. So it dosent have to fight constant war, or export its societal model in order to influence other nations. This goes way back to the time of Silk Roads.

Neither did North Korea or to some extend Russia.

Again, in terms of Governance, it is similar, of course there are going to be different, but it is minimal.

By contrast its the Peoples Bank that keeps USD value higher vis avis CNY, by buying and taking USD out from the market.

Central Bank have no choice, because China is export driven economy, a high value Yuan is bad for business (as I explained before) And this exact action is what Currency Domination is all about. US basically made their currency into a commodity.

It is not the Chinese Central Bank choose to do it, they HAVE TO do it.

Also, There are no such things as People Bank, there is a Renmin Bank, but that was a commercial bank, not the central bank that control monetary policy

They are not gonna relocate to Europe or America. Maybe relocate to other developing nations like India, but then again you just create a counterwight to China, creating another powerhouse, which in the end will trade with China, both will become more powerful than today, hastening Multipolarity. That is exactly what i meant with Checkmated. In order for US to have allies and influence in Asia, it has to create big counterweights to China. Asian nations are reluctant to forge any millitary alliance against China and you end up with actually diluting US relative power.

Hmm, I don't know about Europe, but US has started "Made in America" policy since Trump is in office

US has already relocated more than 45% of production back to US, and Biden aiming at the end of his term all essential material are made in US.

The Biden Plan to Ensure the Future is “Made in All of America” by All of America’s Workers - Joe Biden for President: Official Campaign Website

Joe Biden will mobilize the talent, grit, and innovation of the American people and the full power of the federal government to bolster American industrial and technological strength and ensure the future is “made in all of America” by all of America’s workers. Biden believes that American...

joebiden.com

Also, the Current Russian war and COVID pandemic has taught US and Europe that they can no longer depend on a single source of product, which mean they are going to diversify their investment. Which mean they do not just going to create a counteract to China, but everywhere, and being the riches nations on earth, they have the financial means to do so, which lower the risk of being blackmailing into ana action, hence no checkmate.

And well, there are ALWAYS military alliance against China. As long as the Chinese government act like the current one. There are no better advertisement than a "Strong and Bully" China to have country like Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam fall in line. It's like NATO, the more Russia push, the more people want to join NATO. Again, you cannot threaten someone not joining an alliance against you, that would only make them want to join more.

And the US economy contracted waaay more. China didnt grow, yes, but calling 0,2% growth for tanked is a exaggeration, compared to the conditions in the rest of the world. OTOH China already has a massive base where 4-5% growth is good enough to add trillions every year.

China population growth is very slow these days, creating some labor shortages in certain sectors. So they themselves are gonna start outsourcing labor intensive industries (Guess to where!?). Compared to 15 years ago, the service sector makes up a much bigger cake of total GDP, i believe its close to 60% of GDP. Making it less vulnerable to export as it used to be. There is also a emerging market next door in Asia, and big markets in Latin America, Africa that also demand cheap goods.

Actually, no

First of all, both US and China projected grow are set back with 0.2% (2,6->2.4 for US, 5.0-4.8 for China) but that means literally nothing in the US because US are a matured economy. They do not dump money into the economy to develop more because they can't develop more

However, China depends on that growth to maintain the developmental stage of that country, which mean any shrinking would mean less budget to put into future development (Which is a problem US do not have) which would start a negative cycle on economy downturn.

And finally, service industry in China is around 54.5%, it is around 83 % in the US. China is still depends on export as it is roughly account for 39-40% while Primary Product are down to 7.3%, so yes, even tho that dependence weened, it is by no mean no relevant

Comparison with Japan makes little sense.
Japan is geographically small land of 120 million people, and in many ways a US protectorate with little to say in major defence and foreign policy matters. Thats why Japan was forced to accept Plaza Accord, which broke its back and has stagnated its economy. US could do that because Japan militarily was not a match. China can confidently defi any such agreement by sheer size of its economy, population and millitary power. Trump tried, but lost. Not a shocker.

What's Plaza Accord have to do with Military Power?

First of all, Plaza Accord is a depreciation of USD against Mark, Franc and Yen. Basically all the country that signed this accord is due to economic pressures because US is threaten default to runs over the three currency. The problem for Yen is after Plaza Accord, both Germany and France joined Eurozone and adopted Euro as their currency and have the entire Europe backing, which avoided the asset burst, Japan on the other hand did not, which basically means their dependence of USD (as it is their primary trading partner back then) means all the debt they hold would worth nothing overnight.

If US wanted to do that to China, they can, again, China have no right to decide US monetary policy of course that would damage US economy, but then it would have damage China more, as there are more US asset in China than vice versa (Bond, Stock, fixed asset and so on) which mean all those US asset China is currently holding would worth nothing.......

So what are you saying is, if US will not dare to depreciate their own currency because China would invade??

More worrying for the west, China is actually becoming a very inventive country, by registering millions of patents each year. In many fields they are way ahead, like forexample drones. In high tech they are catching up fast and in some areas ahead of western tech (ref. US congress report). So again, they are not only depedent on selling cheap goods. This trend will only accelerate.

Applying patent and granting them are two separate issue, why don't you check how many patent were granted to China every year?

Total patents in USPTO ( Patent ) | Countries Report | STATNANO

The indicator shows the number of total granted patents in USPTO. According to WIPO, a patent is an exclusive right granted for an invention, which is a..

statnano.com

Also, being granted more patent (not going to use applying more patent) have no bearing with being inventive. Google Nest is probably one of the most inventive application in 2010s, how many patent does it grant to google? 3.

Just because you applying for more patent (Let alone granting them) does not make you more inventive

Good luck with getting Made in China products for mere 10-15% higher cost but produced in Europe. That wont happen with the wages here. To not talk about the profit margins. No business owner will move factories to higher cost nation and make less profit, just for sake of patriotism. It would kill many companies.

All I can say is you are clearly out of date with the market price for just about everything. Go out and see how much a "made in China" product cost now compare to "made in US" or "made in Europe"? You do know not every country in EU are as rich as Norway or Sweden or Germany, right? Places like Hungary, Bulgaria and Croatia has becoming European Factory in the recent decade, their rages are comparable to the Chinese (average on the 3 aforementioned country are about USD 20,000-24,000 a year, China is about 18,000 a year.

 

[MeFishToo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528093085086978049

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528093090380120064

Ukraine believes the Russian Army will collapse in August. Now Russian sources seem to confirm that.

Hopefully Ukraine is going to win this war. But I honestly doubt Ukraine is any better than Russia carrying out offensive operations. I think it is going to be one long artillery duel with a static front line.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Well, I am saying it



Well, usually if someone said "Same Same" it's not,...

The reason why US is dominant after WW2 is because of the money US lent to Europe to reconstruction, which lead to Europe adopt a US debt system, which leads to USD become the world currency reserve and Bretton Woods system being abolished and de-pegged with Gold.

This have nothing to do with Military. We are talking about post war, US had not expanded their territories since 1840s after we took Texas and California off Mexico.

And I would not say China is a "Economic Superpower" again, being Rich and being powerful are two different concept,



Neither did North Korea or to some extend Russia.

Again, in terms of Governance, it is similar, of course there are going to be different, but it is minimal.


Central Bank have no choice, because China is export driven economy, a high value Yuan is bad for business (as I explained before) And this exact action is what Currency Domination is all about. US basically made their currency into a commodity.

It is not the Chinese Central Bank choose to do it, they HAVE TO do it.

Also, There are no such things as People Bank, there is a Renmin Bank, but that was a commercial bank, not the central bank that control monetary policy




Hmm, I don't know about Europe, but US has started "Made in America" policy since Trump is in office

US has already relocated more than 45% of production back to US, and Biden aiming at the end of his term all essential material are made in US.

The Biden Plan to Ensure the Future is “Made in All of America” by All of America’s Workers - Joe Biden for President: Official Campaign Website

Joe Biden will mobilize the talent, grit, and innovation of the American people and the full power of the federal government to bolster American industrial and technological strength and ensure the future is “made in all of America” by all of America’s workers. Biden believes that American...

joebiden.com

Also, the Current Russian war and COVID pandemic has taught US and Europe that they can no longer depend on a single source of product, which mean they are going to diversify their investment. Which mean they do not just going to create a counteract to China, but everywhere, and being the riches nations on earth, they have the financial means to do so, which lower the risk of being blackmailing into ana action, hence no checkmate.

And well, there are ALWAYS military alliance against China. As long as the Chinese government act like the current one. There are no better advertisement than a "Strong and Bully" China to have country like Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam fall in line. It's like NATO, the more Russia push, the more people want to join NATO. Again, you cannot threaten someone not joining an alliance against you, that would only make them want to join more.






Actually, no

First of all, both US and China projected grow are set back with 0.2% (2,6->2.4 for US, 5.0-4.8 for China) but that means literally nothing in the US because US are a matured economy. They do not dump money into the economy to develop more because they can't develop more

However, China depends on that growth to maintain the developmental stage of that country, which mean any shrinking would mean less budget to put into future development (Which is a problem US do not have) which would start a negative cycle on economy downturn.

And finally, service industry in China is around 54.5%, it is around 83 % in the US. China is still depends on export as it is roughly account for 39-40% while Primary Product are down to 7.3%, so yes, even tho that dependence weened, it is by no mean no relevant



What's Plaza Accord have to do with Military Power?

First of all, Plaza Accord is a depreciation of USD against Mark, Franc and Yen. Basically all the country that signed this accord is due to economic pressures because US is threaten default to runs over the three currency. The problem for Yen is after Plaza Accord, both Germany and France joined Eurozone and adopted Euro as their currency and have the entire Europe backing, which avoided the asset burst, Japan on the other hand did not, which basically means their dependence of USD (as it is their primary trading partner back then) means all the debt they hold would worth nothing overnight.

If US wanted to do that to China, they can, again, China have no right to decide US monetary policy of course that would damage US economy, but then it would have damage China more, as there are more US asset in China than vice versa (Bond, Stock, fixed asset and so on) which mean all those US asset China is currently holding would worth nothing.......

So what are you saying is, if US will not dare to depreciate their own currency because China would invade??



Applying patent and granting them are two separate issue, why don't you check how many patent were granted to China every year?

Total patents in USPTO ( Patent ) | Countries Report | STATNANO

The indicator shows the number of total granted patents in USPTO. According to WIPO, a patent is an exclusive right granted for an invention, which is a..

statnano.com

Also, being granted more patent (not going to use applying more patent) have no bearing with being inventive. Google Nest is probably one of the most inventive application in 2010s, how many patent does it grant to google? 3.

Just because you applying for more patent (Let alone granting them) does not make you more inventive



All I can say is you are clearly out of date with the market price for just about everything. Go out and see how much a "made in China" product cost now compare to "made in US" or "made in Europe"? You do know not every country in EU are as rich as Norway or Sweden or Germany, right? Places like Hungary, Bulgaria and Croatia has becoming European Factory in the recent decade, their rages are comparable to the Chinese (average on the 3 aforementioned country are about USD 20,000-24,000 a year, China is about 18,000 a year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528079835653890051

Ukraine is now building toward a 1 million man military and the Russian trolls don’t even realize it. The Russians are going to be outnumbered by the end of the year, and the Ukrainians armed with advanced Western weapons.

 

[Tornado23]

We’ll see how long Russia can control the coast once Ukraine begins receiving 250-300km Harpoon and NSM missiles.

MTCR not count in such a time?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528079835653890051

Ukraine is now building toward a 1 million man military and the Russian trolls don’t even realize it. The Russians are going to be outnumbered by the end of the year, and the Ukrainians armed with advanced Western weapons.

Numbers dont win wars. Just look at the Pak-Indo scenario. If we go by numbers, India should've steam rolled Pakistan in all its wars and control all of Kashmir. But they havent...

 

[jhungary]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528079835653890051

Ukraine is now building toward a 1 million man military and the Russian trolls don’t even realize it. The Russians are going to be outnumbered by the end of the year, and the Ukrainians armed with advanced Western weapons.

I think you had quoted the wrong person

 

[F-22Raptor]

Hopefully Ukraine is going to win this war. But I honestly doubt Ukraine is any better than Russia carrying out offensive operations. I think it is going to be one long artillery duel with a static front line.

The tide is shifting in Ukraines favor, in both numbers and weapons. I believe Ukraines defense minister Reznikov stated the next couple months will be a hard slog, attritional warfare. But things will begin to turn in Ukraines favor by autumn and winter.

Ukraines military is slowly getting stronger.

MTCR not count in such a time?


Numbers dont win wars. Just look at the Pak-Indo scenario. If we go by numbers, India should've steam rolled Pakistan in all its wars and control all of Kashmir. But they havent...

It’s the numbers plus armed with advanced Western weapons. Ukraines military is now funded until the end of the year by the US. Ukraine is getting stronger, slowly.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528111899824599046

 

[Viet]

Even if this war continues for 10-20 years till then Ukraine will be almost 80% without coast line.... That's a tragedy....

That’s not a certainty. Life will be hell. There won’t be no peace. Russia must maintain a large occupation army to fight any resistance and rebellion. Putin will erect concentration camps. He will erect gulags middle in Ukraine.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528020333315375104

 

[Tornado23]

It’s the numbers plus armed with advanced Western weapons. Ukraines military is now funded until the end of the year by the US. Ukraine is getting stronger, slowly.

Same with India, but we saw their lack luster performance in 62 and 65

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

I know its not related to the millitary objectives, as i already pointed out.
There is a reason the US Army still is World No1.

The rationale as you said is a political question thus the answer rests on policymakers. Still i ask the question because shouldnt it matter if a millitary victory is helpful or not? Pondering those questions could help make policymakers use hard power more selectively in the future.

I think that the Taliban will certainly think twice about their policy decisions in the future.
Saddam and Gaddafi will not, unless there is a hell.

B

But wasn't kuwait stealing oil ?
Saddam invasion of kuwait was thus justified

Kuwait and Iraq are both on top of the same oil field.
Kuwait was pumping oil inside their own territory.
That is their sovereign right.
Saddams sovereign right is to do the same in Iraq.

 

[F-22Raptor]

There’s new info coming in that another Russian BTG has been destroyed attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River….again.